BAAQMD Modeling Advisory Committee Meeting on Particulate Matter - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BAAQMD Modeling Advisory Committee Meeting on Particulate Matter - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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BAAQMD Modeling Advisory Committee Meeting on Particulate Matter Saffet Tanrikulu, Ph.D. Research and Modeling Manager Cuong Tran Senior Atmospheric Modeler October 14, 2010 Meeting # Meeting Agenda Overall SFBA PM2.5 study program

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BAAQMD Modeling Advisory Committee Meeting

  • n Particulate Matter

Saffet Tanrikulu, Ph.D. Research and Modeling Manager Cuong Tran Senior Atmospheric Modeler October 14, 2010 Meeting #

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Meeting Agenda

  • Overall SFBA PM2.5 study program plan
  • Emissions inventory development for PM2.5 modeling
  • Draft ultrafine particulate matter study plan
  • Discussion

Contact info Saffet Tanrikulu, Research and Modeling Manager (415) 749-4787, stanrikulu@baaqmd.gov Dial-in number: 1-877-875-0062, passcode: 7494664

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Overall SFBA PM2.5 Study Program Plan

− Data analysis − Emissions inventory development − Modeling

− MM5 and WRF − CMAQ

− Health impacts study − Provide technical information to SIP development effort − Preparation of documents, reports and papers

− Preliminary modeling report available

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MAC Meetings

June 3, 2010

– Attainment status – Overall PM study plan – Conceptual formation of SFBA PM

  • Data analysis
  • Emissions inventory
  • Modeling

October 14, 2010

– Emissions inventory in SFBA – Draft ultrafine particulate matter study plan

January 2011

– Model performance evaluation following EPA guidelines – Model sensitivity to changes in emissions – PM transport

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MAC Meetings (cont.)

April 2011

– PM health impacts study – Summary of overall study findings – Discussion

June 2011

– Prepare a draft document on study findings – Receive feedback from MAC – Finalize the document

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Emissions Inventory Status

– Obtained preliminary modeling inventory from ARB for 2000 for CRPAQS domain – Adjusted the inventory based on changes in ARB almanac for 2005 and 2015 – Replaced SFBA portion of the inventory with the BAAQMD CARE program inventory for 2005 and 2015 – Updated wood smoke estimate for SFBA – Developed ammonia emissions inventory for SFBA – Others

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Emissions Inventory Status (Cont.)

– ARB plans to release a new inventory with 2005 base year in June 2011 – BAAQMD modeling will continue with the current inventory until then – BAAQMD will review and evaluate ARB inventory, and compare it against the current inventory when ARB inventory is available – Some base year and sensitivity simulations will be repeated with the new ARB inventory – Model performance will be re-evaluated – All modeling work be completed by the end of October 2011

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Emissions Inventory Status (Cont.)

– We are using the U.S. EPA’s SMOKE model – QA/QC is a very important part of our work – We have been participating in CRPAQS effort – We have been participating in the Emissions Inventory Coordination Group meetings and conference calls

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Emissions Inventory Development - Presentation Overview

– Framework – Specifics of SFBA modeling inventory development

  • Core data and assumptions
  • Revision to winter wood burning emissions methodology
  • Development of SFBA NH3 emissions inventory

– SMOKE processing (emission inputs preparation) – QA/QC

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General Framework

– Previously

  • Received model-ready inventories from ARB
  • Used EMS95 for model input preparation
  • Modeling inventories for ozone, PM and toxics prepared

independently

– Current approach

  • Single, unified database for O3, PM, toxics, UFP
  • Single emissions model to handle all processing needs
  • Local data wherever possible, clearly documented data

elsewhere

  • Systematic QA/QC
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2005 PM Modeling Emissions Inventory

– Based upon District’s Base Year 2005 Planning Inventory

  • EMFAC2007
  • OFFROAD2007
  • Wood burning activity based on ‘05-‘06 winter survey and

updated emission factor

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2005 PM Modeling Emissions Inventory (cont.)

– Leveraged work done for District’s CARE Program to avoid inconsistencies and duplication of efforts

  • Adapted all applicable controls/adjustments assumed in CARE

inventory development process – Adjusted OFFROAD diesel equipment emissions » Based on fuel-based analysis, emissions were halved » Recent UC Berkeley work showed overestimation by a factor of 3-4.5 » ARB announced significant changes in equipment population, construction equipment activity (-7 to -79%), load factor (-33%)

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2005 PM Modeling Emissions Inventory (cont.)

  • Used detailed spatial allocation surrogates

– MTC link-level data processed through DTIM » Corrected for local details such as HD restriction on I-580 – Specific surrogates for residential fuel combustion » Based on Census primary heating fuel data – Adjusted spatial distribution of shipping emissions

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Winter Wood Burning Updates

– Prior to 2005 base year inventory, wood burning emissions unreasonably high in urban areas, esp. S.F. – To gain better insights, District began conducting surveys in 2003

  • Mostly the day after Spare the Air Tonight alerts
  • Originally, designed to measure public awareness, opinions,

behavior relevant to wood burning

  • In 2005, expanded to include

– Quantities of wood burned – Types of appliances – Frequency of burning

  • ~2600 participants
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Winter Wood Burning Updates (cont.)

– Supplemented by neighborhood assessment

  • 2 neighborhoods in Napa Co., 2 in Contra Costa
  • Both show decreasing trend in wood burning

– Earlier study showed 7% household burn – Recent study showed 4.8% household burn

  • Corroboration lends confidence to survey results

– Use of survey results replaced previous methodology

  • Resulted in 15% reduction for PM2.5 and 20% for NOx region-

wide compared to previous estimates

  • S.F. emissions significantly reduced while Sonoma Co. increased
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Winter Wood Burning Updates

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Emission Summaries

2005 Winter Average PM2.5

5 10 15 20 25 Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma County TPD Point Onroad Nonroad Area

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Emission Summaries (cont.)

2005 Winter Average NOx

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma County TPD Point Onroad Nonroad Area

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Emission Summaries (cont.)

2005 Winter Average TOG

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma County TPD Point Onroad Nonroad Area

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Emission Summaries (cont.)

2005 Winter Average PM2.5

Residential: Wood 38% Paved Roads 12% Food and Kindred Products: SIC 20 8% Agriculture Production - Livestock 7% Marine Vessels, Commercial 4% Highway Vehicles - Diesel 4% Highway Vehicles - Gasoline 4% Construction: SIC 15 - 17 2% Industrial Processes: Chemical Manufacturing 2% Construction and Mining Equipment 2% Industrial Processes: Petroleum Industry 2% Commercial/Institutional 2% Others 10% Residential: Natural Gas 2% Geogenic 1%

95 tpd

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Emission Summaries (cont.)

2005 Winter Average NOx

Highw ay Vehicles - Gasoline 29% Highw ay Vehicles - Diesel 25% Industrial Equipment 4% Construction and Mining Equipment 7% Marine Vessels, Commercial 12% Railroad Equipment 3% Residential: Natural Gas 4% Aircraft 3% Industrial Processes: Petroleum Industry 1% Others 10% Industrial Processes: In- process Fuel Use 1% Commercial/Institutional 1%

514 tpd

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Emission Summaries (cont.)

2005 Winter Average TOG

Highw ay Vehicles - Gasoline 20% Waste Disposal: Solid Waste Disposal - Government 19% Agriculture Production - Livestock 8% Miscellaneous Non- industrial: Consumer and Commercial 7% Residential: Wood 5% Composting 4% Surface Coating 3% Landfills 3% Pleasure Craft 2% Miscellaneous Industrial 2% Petroleum and Petroleum Product Storage 1% Law n and Garden Equipment 3% Construction and Mining Equipment 1% Petroleum and Solvent Evaporation: Surface Coating Operations 1% Others 13% Oil and Gas Production: SIC 13 8%

814 tpd

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory

– Received CRPAQS inventory from ARB

  • Emissions low compared to NEI (33.6 tpd vs. 52 tpd)
  • Practically no diurnal variation
  • Insufficient details for further QA

– Developed SFBA 2000 NH3 emissions inventory from scratch

  • Compared to CRPAQS inventory from ARB

– 72 tpd (new) vs 33.6 tpd (CRPAQS) – More realistic diurnal variation – Relatively less emission density in Sonoma (less agricultural production) – More emissions around urban core

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory (cont.)

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory (cont.)

  • Compared to 2000 NEI

– New source categories – misc. domestic, refrigeration, RWC – Large emissions differences in » livestock (63% less in new inventory) » stationary point source (74% more) »

  • nroad (31% less)

– Net effects » 20 tpd higher in new inventory » emissions shift to urban areas where NOx is available

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory (cont.)

– Projected to 2005

  • Point – ratio of District 2000 and 2005 permitted source data
  • Onroad – EMFAC2007 VMT growth
  • Area and nonroad – US EPA Economic Growth Analysis System

(EGAS) 5.0

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory (cont.)

Winter Average NH3

2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Alameda Contra Costa Marin Napa San Francisco San Mateo Santa Clara Solano Sonoma County TPD Point Onroad Nonroad Area

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SFBA NH3 Emissions Inventory (cont.)

Winter Avg NH3

Domestic Animals Waste Emissions 18% Highway Vehicles - Gasoline 16% Agriculture Production - Livestock 14% Domestic Sources: Human Perspiration and Respiration 13% Biogenic 10% Waste Disposal, Treatment, and Recovery: Composting 8% Residential: Natural Gas 7% Industrial Processes: Miscellaneous Manufacturing Industries 6% Others 8%

72 tpd

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SMOKE Processing

– Purpose is to prepare AQM-ready inputs from county-level annual average emissions – US EPA’s Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions (SMOKE) model selected because

  • Well-documented and supported by CMAS
  • Can handle PM, O3, toxics, UFP
  • Flexibility in creating UAM-formatted inputs
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SMOKE Processing (cont.)

– 3 steps: spatial allocation, temporal allocation, chemical speciation

  • Temporal allocation

– Locally-derived temporal profiles preferred – ARB temporal profiles where available – SMOKE default profiles (US EPA’s)

  • Speciation

– SAPRC99 chemical mechanism

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SMOKE Processing (cont.)

Diurnal Pattern for Wood Burning

0.05 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Hour Fraction SFBA 2009-10 Wood Burning Survey ARB hourly profile

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QA/QC

– Evaluation phase (“reality checks”)

  • Compare to other available inventories

– for same area – earlier versions, trends across different years – for similar areas – compare normalized emissions or other metric (e.g. wood burning per household)

  • Compare to ambient measurement ratios

– CMB analysis – C-14 analysis (recent winters only) – NH3 measurements

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QA/QC (cont.)

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

Ammonium Sulfate Ammonium Nitrate Marine Geological Dust Fossil Fuel Combustion Vegetative Burning & Cooking Totals

pm2.5 (¬g/m3)

Bethel Island Livermore San Francisco San Jose 2000 San Jose 2001 Point Reyes Note: Estimated source contributions to peak Bay Area ambient PM2.5 for 2000 and San Jose 2001. Values are averages of CMB and C-14 estimated source contributions from 10 days with highest PM at each site. Totals are sums of individual source contributions.

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QA/QC (cont.)

Area/Site NH3 Emissions Ambient [NH3] San Jose 17.5 tpd 9.2 ppb 7.8 μg/m3 Concord 10.5 tpd 4.5 ppb Fremont 11.0 tpd 3.7 μg/m3 Ratio Concord/SJ 0.60 0.49 Ratio Fremont/SJ 0.63 0.47

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QA/QC (cont.)

  • Use AQM performance to help diagnose inventory and

identify potential areas for improvement

– Iterative process – Over-/underestimate? Magnitude? – Where, when? – Consistent? Systematic? – Primary or secondary?

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QA/QC (cont.)

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QA/QC (cont.)

– Processing phase (“independent audits”)

  • Multiple staff involved
  • SMOKE reporting utilities customized to track total mass
  • PAVE/GIS to check spatial variation
  • Matlab to check model species-level temporal allocation

– Every hour of the modeling period – Weekday/weekend differences – Key species (e.g. NH3, PEC, NO, etc)

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Ultrafine Particulate Matter Study

  • PM measurements as indicator of pollutant exposure

– Mass concentration (PM2.5 and PM10) – Number concentration (PM0.1), also known as ultrafine PM (UFP) – Smaller particles may be more harmful to human health

  • May penetrate deeply into human tissues
  • Very large surface area
  • Proposed BA pilot study

– Data analysis – Emissions inventory development – Monitoring – Modeling – Health impacts assessment – Reporting results

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Ultrafine Particulate Matter Study (Cont.)

  • Data analysis

– Identify weather patterns impacting regional UFP levels – Develop a conceptual model

  • Emissions inventory development

– Estimate UFP emission factors – Leverage existing PM2.5 activity data – Process at 1x1 km resolution using SMOKE

  • Monitoring

– Sample at 3 stations representing regional UFP levels – Provide ambient measurements for exposure assessment – Support data analysis and model evaluation

  • Modeling

– Explore 2 models: CMAQ-MADRID and CAMx – Simulate annual average UFP levels over entire BA at 1x1 km resolution

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Ultrafine Particulate Matter Study (Cont.)

  • Health impacts assessment

– Assess UFP exposure around monitors using ambient measurements – Assess regional UFP exposure using simulation results

  • Quantify adverse health impacts
  • Monetize economic impacts
  • Quantify and monetize benefits of future emission reductions
  • Reporting results

– Report findings – Provide information to interested parties for future UFP studies

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Ultrafine Particulate Matter Study (Cont.)

  • Collaborators

– BAAQMD, multiple Divisions and Sections – UC Davis – ENVIRON International Corporation – Sonoma Technology, Inc. – OEHHA/CalEPA – Others

  • Schedule

– Complete pilot program in three years – Make recommendations for future study needs

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Thank you

Questions and Comments