Str ate gic L
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Summe r 2013
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Str ate gic L ow De cline , L ight Oil Acquisition Cr e ate s - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Str ate gic L ow De cline , L ight Oil Acquisition Cr e ate s Sustainable Yie ld + Discipline d Gr owth Mode l Summe r 2013 * TORC Advisory Forward Looking Statements: This presentation contains forward looking statements. More
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Forward‐Looking Statements: This presentation contains forward‐looking statements. More particularly, this presentation contains statements concerning anticipated: (i) timing and completion of the Acquisition, CPPIB Investment and Bought Deal Financing, expectations and assumptions concerning timing of receipt of required shareholder and regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other conditions to the completion of the Acquisition, CPPIB Investment and Bought Deal Financing, (ii) potential development opportunities and drilling locations associated with the Acquisition, expectations and assumptions concerning the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, the successful application of technology and the geological characteristics of the Acquisition, (iii) the timing and amount of future dividend payments, (iv) oil & natural gas production growth during 2013, (v) debt and bank facilities, (vi) cash flow, (vii) capital expenditures, (viii) hedging, (ix) potential acquisitions, and (x) realization of anticipated benefits of acquisitions. The forward‐looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by TORC, including expectations and assumptions concerning the performance of existing wells and success obtained in drilling new wells, anticipated expenses, cash flow and capital expenditures and the application of regulatory and royalty regimes. Although TORC believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward‐looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward‐ looking statements because TORC can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward‐looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Certain of these risks are set out in more detail in TORC's Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at www.sedar.com. The forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and TORC undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward‐looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws. This press release contains Future Oriented Financial Information ("FOFI") within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The FOFI has been prepared by management of TORC to provide an outlook of TORC's anticipated cash flows following completion of the Acquisition and the Financings and readers are cautioned that this information may not be appropriate for any
assumptions with respect to the operating costs to be incurred by the TORC, capital expenditures, general and administrative expenses, production levels, commodity prices, royalty rates and finding and development costs. Management does not have firm commitments for all of the costs, expenditures, prices or other financial assumptions used to prepare the FOFI or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and, accordingly, the complete financial effects of all of those costs, expenditures, prices and operating results are not objectively
material. TORC and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting the best estimates and judgments, and represent, to the best of management's knowledge and opinion, TORC's expected expenditures and results of operations following completion of the Acquisition and the Financings. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks, including the risks discussed under the Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future
DPIIP Any references to oil resource or oil in place are intended to be the equivalent of Discovered Petroleum Initially In Place (DPIIP) which is defined as quantity of hydrocarbons that are estimated to be in place within a known accumulation, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. A recovery project cannot be defined for this volume of DPIIP at this time, and as such it cannot be further sub‐categorized. BOES: Disclosure provided herein in respect of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1; utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. August 2013
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EV / Boe/d $82,500 EV / Proved Boe $30.48 EV / P+P Boe $22.03 P / CF 4.5x Recycle Ratio 2.3x
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believes are positioned to be leaders in their respective industries
Pension Plan in a way that maximizes returns without undue risk of loss
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Edmonton Calgary
Cardium Trend: Core Development Asset
Monarch: Emerging Light Oil Resource Play SE Saskatchewan: Low Decline High Netback
along with specific direct experience on acquired assets
growth
development pace and growth plan
technologies, well spacing, and EOR
geographical area spanning 40 miles
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– Proved + probable reserve base of 21.3 mmboe (68% PDP) – Over 130 identified locations for low risk infill and development drilling
PDP TP P+P
Average 10 yr PDP Decline 12%/year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Oil & NGL Production Rate (bbl/d)
Source: GLJ Report dated December 31, 2012
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~25%
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return proposition
undrawn by year‐end
months
locations
(1) Pro forma equity financing and reflects $1.57 per share issuance price
Capitalization ($mm) Share Price $1.57 Basic Shares Outstanding (mm) 1 455 Market Capitalization 1 $715 Bank Debt (at Dec 31, 2013) $150 Total Capitalization $865 Dividend per Share $0.10 Leverage Debt / EV 17% Debt / CF 1.0x % Undrawn 55%
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strategy
light oil resource base across multiple plays
through acquisition of Vero
business strategy into a sustainable yield + growth model
through acquisition of low decline SESK light oil resource base
with a strong financial investor
Cardium resource capture
development phase of business plan
buyer
25,000 boepd through accretive acquisitions and organic growth
SK Bakken
evolution to Alberta (Cardium, Viking, Montney)
growth
38,000 boepd
in SESK Bakken
to a dividend paying structure
increasing yield
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Production 2013E Exit Production boepd 9,500 Illustrative Decline Rate % 25% Annual Production Decline boepd 2,375 Maintenance Capex Production Replacement boepd 2,375 Illustrative Capital Efficiency $/boepd $40,000 Implied Maintenance Capex $mm $95 Dividend Payout Shares Outstanding mm 456 Annual Dividend per Share $/share $0.10 Annual Dividends $mm $46 DRIP Proceeds % 24% Less: DRIP Proceeds $mm $11 Net Dividends $mm $35 Free Cash Flow Run Rate Cash Flow $mm $155 Maintenance Capex $mm $95 Net Dividends $mm $35 Free Cash Flow $mm ~$25mm Growth at $40,000/boepd % +5% Payout Ratio %
<100%
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Volume (Bbl/d) Type ($C/Bbl) Index Low High
Jan 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013
250 Collar 95.00 106.00 C$WTI
Jan 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013
250 Collar 95.00 106.00 C$WTI
Apr 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013
500 Collar 90.00 100.00 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013
1,000 Swap 106.35 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013
500 Swap 107.50 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014
500 Collar 95.00 109.30 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014
500 Collar 100.00 107.00 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014
500 Swap 103.75 C$WTI
Jan 1, 2014 – Jun 30, 2014
1,000 Collar 90.00 107.00 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2014
500 Collar 90.00 107.40 C$WTI
Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2014
500 Collar 95.00 104.60 C$WTI
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President & Chief Executive Officer
Vice President, Finance & Chief Financial Officer
Vice President & Controller
Vice President, Operations
Vice President, Exploration
Vice President, Land
Vice President, Production
Corporate Secretary
Jim Byrne
Adam Gill
Anthony Petrucci
Todd Kepler
Tim Murray
Brian Kristjansen
Cody Kwong
Jason Konzuk
Christina Lopez
Dan Payne
Lyndon Dunkley
Kristopher Zack
Shailender Randhawa
William Lee
Michael Zuk
Juan Jarrah 18