Str ate gic L ow De cline , L ight Oil Acquisition Cr e ate s - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Str ate gic L ow De cline , L ight Oil Acquisition Cr e ate s Sustainable Yie ld + Discipline d Gr owth Mode l Summe r 2013 * TORC Advisory Forward Looking Statements: This presentation contains forward looking statements. More


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SLIDE 1

Str ate gic L

  • w De cline ,

L ight Oil Acquisition Cr e ate s Sustainable Yie ld + Discipline d Gr

  • wth Mode l

Summe r 2013

*

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SLIDE 2

TORC Advisory

2

Forward‐Looking Statements: This presentation contains forward‐looking statements. More particularly, this presentation contains statements concerning anticipated: (i) timing and completion of the Acquisition, CPPIB Investment and Bought Deal Financing, expectations and assumptions concerning timing of receipt of required shareholder and regulatory approvals and the satisfaction of other conditions to the completion of the Acquisition, CPPIB Investment and Bought Deal Financing, (ii) potential development opportunities and drilling locations associated with the Acquisition, expectations and assumptions concerning the success of future drilling and development activities, the performance of existing wells, the performance of new wells, the successful application of technology and the geological characteristics of the Acquisition, (iii) the timing and amount of future dividend payments, (iv) oil & natural gas production growth during 2013, (v) debt and bank facilities, (vi) cash flow, (vii) capital expenditures, (viii) hedging, (ix) potential acquisitions, and (x) realization of anticipated benefits of acquisitions. The forward‐looking statements are based on certain key expectations and assumptions made by TORC, including expectations and assumptions concerning the performance of existing wells and success obtained in drilling new wells, anticipated expenses, cash flow and capital expenditures and the application of regulatory and royalty regimes. Although TORC believes that the expectations and assumptions on which the forward‐looking statements are based are reasonable, undue reliance should not be placed on the forward‐ looking statements because TORC can give no assurance that they will prove to be correct. Since forward‐looking statements address future events and conditions, by their very nature they involve inherent risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially from those currently anticipated due to a number of factors and risks. These include, but are not limited to, risks associated with the oil and gas industry in general (e.g., operational risks in development, exploration and production; delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures; the uncertainty of reserve estimates; the uncertainty of estimates and projections relating to production, costs and expenses, and health, safety and environmental risks), commodity price and exchange rate fluctuations and uncertainties resulting from potential delays or changes in plans with respect to exploration or development projects or capital expenditures. Certain of these risks are set out in more detail in TORC's Annual Information Form which has been filed on SEDAR and can be accessed at www.sedar.com. The forward‐looking statements contained in this presentation are made as of the date hereof and TORC undertakes no obligation to update publicly or revise any forward‐looking statements or information, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, unless so required by applicable securities laws. This press release contains Future Oriented Financial Information ("FOFI") within the meaning of applicable securities laws. The FOFI has been prepared by management of TORC to provide an outlook of TORC's anticipated cash flows following completion of the Acquisition and the Financings and readers are cautioned that this information may not be appropriate for any

  • ther purpose. The FOFI has been prepared based on a number of assumptions including the assumptions discussed under the Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements and

assumptions with respect to the operating costs to be incurred by the TORC, capital expenditures, general and administrative expenses, production levels, commodity prices, royalty rates and finding and development costs. Management does not have firm commitments for all of the costs, expenditures, prices or other financial assumptions used to prepare the FOFI or assurance that such operating results will be achieved and, accordingly, the complete financial effects of all of those costs, expenditures, prices and operating results are not objectively

  • determinable. The actual results of operations of TORC and the resulting financial results will likely vary from the amounts set forth in this presentation, and such variation may be

material. TORC and its management believe that the FOFI has been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting the best estimates and judgments, and represent, to the best of management's knowledge and opinion, TORC's expected expenditures and results of operations following completion of the Acquisition and the Financings. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks, including the risks discussed under the Note Regarding Forward Looking Statements, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future

  • results. Except as required by applicable securities laws, TORC undertakes no obligation to update this information.

DPIIP Any references to oil resource or oil in place are intended to be the equivalent of Discovered Petroleum Initially In Place (DPIIP) which is defined as quantity of hydrocarbons that are estimated to be in place within a known accumulation, plus those estimated quantities in accumulations yet to be discovered. There is no certainty that it will be commercially viable to produce any portion of the resources. A recovery project cannot be defined for this volume of DPIIP at this time, and as such it cannot be further sub‐categorized. BOES: Disclosure provided herein in respect of barrels of oil equivalent (boe) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion ratio of 6 Mcf: 1 Bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1; utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value. August 2013

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SLIDE 3

Strategic Rationale

3

  • Unique opportunity

– High quality asset

  • rarely do low decline / high free cash flow assets come to market for sale

– “Going Home”

  • Extensive experience and business relationships in SE Saskatchewan
  • Asset provides significant free cash flow to complement TORC’s asset base

– Maintenance capital well below cash flow – Redirect to Cardium

  • significant growth engine

– Continue to develop Monarch with reduced risk profile

  • Reposition company to take advantage of current market opportunities

– Implement dividend to access broader shareholder base – CPPIB relationship provides differentiated access to capital

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SLIDE 4

Investment Highlights

4

Transformative Acquisition:

(low decline, high netback)

  • ~5,700 boe/d (93% light oil & NGLs) in southeast Saskatchewan
  • High netback light oil with stable, long term decline rate of <15%
  • Predictable cash flow generation drives reliable dividend payout

Cornerstone Investment:

(CPPIB)

  • Strategic relationship with a strong financial investor
  • 100% DRIP participation

Sustainable Yield :

(step‐change asset)

  • Low decline, light‐oil production generates free cash flow stream
  • Industry leading corporate netbacks
  • Strong balance sheet with D/CF of 1.0x; bank line ~55% unutilized at year‐end
  • Achievable development assumptions underpin conservative payout model
  • Annual dividend of $0.10 per share (paid monthly) to commence September 2013

Strong Management Track Record:

(Saskatchewan focused)

  • History of delivering value to shareholders through exploitation of light oil plays
  • Extensive experience in southeast Saskatchewan
  • Management track record of successfully managing larger E&P companies

Scalable Potential Upside :

(Acquire/Exploit/Explore)

  • Large inventory of Cardium development locations to support disciplined go‐forward

growth plans

  • Exposure to significant oil‐in‐place at Monarch
  • Pursue growth opportunities through accretive acquisitions
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SLIDE 5

Material Acquisition Supports Strategic Transition

  • Significant acquisition of southeast

Saskatchewan acreage

– Mature, low decline (<15%), high netback light oil production profile – Accretive on cash flow, production and reserves to current shareholders – Proven operating partner

  • Transition of strategy to Yield + Growth

– $0.10 per share dividend payable on monthly basis – >5% production growth – <100% all‐in payout ratio

  • Equity financing

– $242mm at $1.57 per subscription receipt by way of bought deal public financing – $170mm raised at same terms through private placement to CPPIB – Remainder funded through increased credit facilities totaling $350mm

  • Shareholder vote and closing of

transaction expected in early September

– Dividend payable on October 15 to shareholders of record September 30

5

Current

Low Decline, High Netback Saskatchewan Light Oil Asset

Yield + Growth

+

Strong Financial Investor Purchase Metrics

EV / Boe/d $82,500 EV / Proved Boe $30.48 EV / P+P Boe $22.03 P / CF 4.5x Recycle Ratio 2.3x

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SLIDE 6

Significant Cornerstone Investment from CPPIB

6

Investment Details:

  • $170mm subscription receipt private placement on similar financial terms as the bought deal financing
  • Pro forma ownership of ~25%
  • Conditional on a shareholder vote and successful completion of the acquisition

Strategic Relationship:

  • CPPIB’s Relationship Investments group provides long‐term strategic capital to select companies CPPIB

believes are positioned to be leaders in their respective industries

  • DRIP enrollment for 100% of accrued dividends for at least 18 months
  • CPPIB entitled to fund its pro rata share of any future equity raises to support growth

Governance:

  • Entitled to two Board nominees if ownership >20%
  • Scott Lawrence; VP ‐ Head of Relationship Investments at CPPIB will join the Board; Scott was previously
  • n the Board of Progress Energy Resources Corp. prior to its sale to PETRONAS

About CPPIB:

  • Professional investment management organization with a purpose to invest the assets of the Canada

Pension Plan in a way that maximizes returns without undue risk of loss

  • Assets under management of ~$183 billion as at March 31, 2013
  • CPPIB has significant investments in private and public companies in the Canadian Oil & Gas Industry
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SLIDE 7

Pro Forma Snapshot

7

Strategy: Sustainable Yield + Disciplined Growth Focus: High quality, large oil‐in‐place reservoirs Production Guidance: >9,500 boepd (>85% light oil and NGLs) – 2013E Exit Run Rate Maintenance Capex: ~$95mm Dividend: ~$46mm ~$35mm (net of CPPIB DRIP participation) Reserves (Dec. 31, 2012 pro forma acquisition): 40.3 mmboe (P+P)

  • Est. Net Debt (Dec. 31, 2013E pro forma acquisition):

<$150mm Bank Line: $350mm (~55% undrawn) Tax Pools: > $1 bln Basic Shares Outstanding: 455mm Market Capitalization: $715mm Symbol: “TOG” on TSX CPPIB / Insider Ownership: ~25% CPPIB; ~7% Insiders

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SLIDE 8

8

Edmonton Calgary

Alber ta

Cardium Trend: Core Development Asset

Saskatchewan

Monarch: Emerging Light Oil Resource Play SE Saskatchewan: Low Decline High Netback

Low Decline Light Oil Asset Base

Southeast Saskatchewan:

(stable production and cash flow)

  • >130 net identified undrilled locations
  • ~150 net undeveloped sections (~49.5% WI)
  • Low decline, high netback, light oil assets
  • ~5,700 boe/d (>93% liquids)
  • P+P reserves of ~21.3 mmboe
  • Significant management experience in area

along with specific direct experience on acquired assets

Cardium:

(lower risk development)

  • Ample inventory for continued organic

growth

  • 300+ net undrilled locations
  • Operated production base allows control of

development pace and growth plan

  • Further upside through application of new

technologies, well spacing, and EOR

Monarch:

(future option value)

  • Exposure to significant large oil –in‐place
  • pportunity
  • Confirmed geological concepts over a

geographical area spanning 40 miles

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SLIDE 9

Acquisition Asset Overview

9

  • >100,000 net undeveloped acres in SE Saskatchewan (49.5% WI)

currently producing 5,700 boe/d (93% liquids)

– Proved + probable reserve base of 21.3 mmboe (68% PDP) – Over 130 identified locations for low risk infill and development drilling

  • Strategic alignment with operating partner with access to

infrastructure through existing owned facilities

  • Extensive management and technical expertise in southeast

Saskatchewan

  • Operating netback ~$50/boe
  • Recycle ratio 2.3x

Southeast Saskatchewan Overview

PDP TP P+P

Average 10 yr PDP Decline 12%/year

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000

Oil & NGL Production Rate (bbl/d)

Source: GLJ Report dated December 31, 2012

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SLIDE 10
  • Transition to sustainable Yield + Disciplined Growth model supported by a step‐change in the asset profile
  • Production is ~60% attributable to Saskatchewan production with an oil and liquids weighting in excess of 85%
  • Size of asset acquisition decreases pro forma TORC’s corporate decline rate to 25%, fundamentally supporting TORC’s
  • ngoing dividend model
  • Conservative go‐forward capital efficiency assumption of $40,000/boe/d allows for dividend sustainability along with
  • perational flexibility
  • Capital efficiency target achievable based on prior field level performance of the TORC technical team

Step Change in Corporate Asset Base

10

Combined Asset Profile

‐‐ 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Previous TORC Acquisition Pro Forma

Current Decline Rate

~25%

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SLIDE 11

Pro Forma Financial Position

11

TORC will have a sustainable Yield + Disciplined Growth business model

Yield + Growth Advantage

  • Stable returns to shareholders through dividends
  • Disciplined growth of +5% presents strong total

return proposition

  • Growing investor demand for yield

Strong Financial Position

  • Leverage below peer group average with D/CF of 1.0x
  • Significant liquidity with over 55% of bank line

undrawn by year‐end

  • CPPIB DRIP participation of 100% for at least 18

months

Significant Upside

  • Significant undrilled lower risk light oil focused

locations

  • Disciplined approach

(1) Pro forma equity financing and reflects $1.57 per share issuance price

Pro Forma Financial Analysis

Capitalization ($mm) Share Price $1.57 Basic Shares Outstanding (mm) 1 455 Market Capitalization 1 $715 Bank Debt (at Dec 31, 2013) $150 Total Capitalization $865 Dividend per Share $0.10 Leverage Debt / EV 17% Debt / CF 1.0x % Undrawn 55%

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SLIDE 12

2014 Guidance – Flexibility Ensures Sustainability

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Maintenance Capital:

  • ~$95 million

Production:

  • >9,500 2013 exit (>85% oil & liquids)

Dividend:

~$46mm ~$35mm (net of CPPIB DRIP)

Cash Flow:

  • Cash Flow Assumptions

― Edmonton Light Oil Differential ‐ $4.50/bbl ― Natural Gas Differential + $0.20/mcf ― Average Royalty ~ 16% ― OPEX & Transportation $16.50/boe ― G&A $2.75/boe

Sustainability:

  • Capital efficiency $40,000/boe/d
  • Corporate decline ~25%
  • All‐in payout less than 100%
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SLIDE 13

Management Track Record

13

Management has led four successful light oil focused companies

Current TORC New TORC

  • Continuation of Cardium

strategy

  • Established significant

light oil resource base across multiple plays

  • Successfully went public

through acquisition of Vero

  • Undergoing evolution of

business strategy into a sustainable yield + growth model

  • Changed asset base

through acquisition of low decline SESK light oil resource base

  • Strategic relationship

with a strong financial investor

  • Consolidated during

Cardium resource capture

  • Sold company before
  • pportunity to execute

development phase of business plan

  • Sold to yield + growth

buyer

  • 1,000 boepd to

25,000 boepd through accretive acquisitions and organic growth

  • Pushed boundaries of SE

SK Bakken

  • Transferred technology

evolution to Alberta (Cardium, Viking, Montney)

  • Transitioned to yield +

growth

  • 200 boepd to

38,000 boepd

  • Drilled 1st three Hz wells

in SESK Bakken

  • Successfully converted

to a dividend paying structure

  • Siginificant growth +

increasing yield

2003 ‐ 2005 2006 ‐ 2009 2009 ‐ 2010 2010 ‐ 2013 2013 +

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SLIDE 14

TORC Strategy – Continued Evolution

14

  • Consistent vision – focus on high quality, light oil plays
  • Evolving Strategy:
  • Integrated philosophy for Shareholder Returns: Sustainable Yield + Disciplined Growth

Yield + Growth

2014+ YieldCo (July 2013)

Delineation

2012‐2013 PublicCo

Resource Capture

2011 PrivateCo

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SLIDE 15
  • Targeted exit production of 9,500 boe/d (>85% oil & NGLs)

― ~60% of production base underpinned by low decline SE SK asset acquisition ― 2014 corporate decline of approximately ~25% ― ~$95mm of maintenance capital implied to remain flat exit‐over‐exit ― Target +5% growth in $90 Edm Lt price environment ― <100% payout ratio

  • 100% CPPIB DRIP participation for at least 18 months

Illustrative Sustainability

15

Illustrative Sustainability Sustainability Highlights

Sustainability Analysis

Production 2013E Exit Production boepd 9,500 Illustrative Decline Rate % 25% Annual Production Decline boepd 2,375 Maintenance Capex Production Replacement boepd 2,375 Illustrative Capital Efficiency $/boepd $40,000 Implied Maintenance Capex $mm $95 Dividend Payout Shares Outstanding mm 456 Annual Dividend per Share $/share $0.10 Annual Dividends $mm $46 DRIP Proceeds % 24% Less: DRIP Proceeds $mm $11 Net Dividends $mm $35 Free Cash Flow Run Rate Cash Flow $mm $155 Maintenance Capex $mm $95 Net Dividends $mm $35 Free Cash Flow $mm ~$25mm Growth at $40,000/boepd % +5% Payout Ratio %

<100%

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SLIDE 16

Revised Hedging Program

16

Current Hedge Summary

Volume (Bbl/d) Type ($C/Bbl) Index Low High

Jan 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013

250 Collar 95.00 106.00 C$WTI

Jan 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013

250 Collar 95.00 106.00 C$WTI

Apr 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013

500 Collar 90.00 100.00 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013

1,000 Swap 106.35 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2013

500 Swap 107.50 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014

500 Collar 95.00 109.30 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014

500 Collar 100.00 107.00 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Jun 30, 2014

500 Swap 103.75 C$WTI

Jan 1, 2014 – Jun 30, 2014

1,000 Collar 90.00 107.00 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2014

500 Collar 90.00 107.40 C$WTI

Aug 1, 2013 – Dec 31, 2014

500 Collar 95.00 104.60 C$WTI

  • Strong hedging program with up to 60% of volumes, net of royalties using a rolling two year price risk management

program

  • Program to be layered in over time

– Combination of

  • Collars
  • Puts
  • Swaps
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SLIDE 17

Well Positioned for Sustainability and Growth

17

 Low Decline, High Netback Production Base

Focused light oil reserve base

 Sustainable Yield

All‐in payout ratio below 100% with falling corporate declines

 Strategic Relationship

Opportunity for CPPIB to support future growth and/or M&A

  • pportunities

 Strong Balance Sheet

Well capitalized yield + growth light oil company

 Experienced Management

Significant management experience within yield + growth strategy

 Unbooked Cardium

Low risk, predictable unbooked Cardium development

 Southern AB Upside

Material future step‐change in value with oil resource at Monarch

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SLIDE 18

Corporate Information

Management

Brett Herman

President & Chief Executive Officer

Jason Zabinsky

Vice President, Finance & Chief Financial Officer

Filippo Angelini

Vice President & Controller

Shane Manchester

Vice President, Operations

Eric Strachan

Vice President, Exploration

Jeremy Wallis

Vice President, Land

Mike Wihak

Vice President, Production

James Pasieka

Corporate Secretary

Directors

John Brussa Raymond Chan Bruce Chernoff Brett Herman David Johnson Scott Lawrence (proposed) Dale Shwed Hank Swartout

Independent Reserve Engineers

Sproule Associates Limited

Banks

BMO TD CIBC RBC

Auditor

KPMG LLP

Legal Counsel

Heenan Blaikie LLP

Transfer Agent

Olympia Trust Company

Corporate Office

Eighth Avenue Place Suite 1800, 525 – 8th Avenue SW Calgary, AB T2P 1G1 T: (403) 930‐4120 F: (403) 930‐4159 www.torcoil.com

Analyst Coverage

BMO Capital Markets

Jim Byrne

CIBC World Markets

Adam Gill

Canaccord Genuity

Anthony Petrucci

Cormark Securities

Todd Kepler

Desjardins Capital Markets

Tim Murray

Dundee Capital Markets

Brian Kristjansen

FirstEnergy Capital

Cody Kwong

GMP Securities

Jason Konzuk

Macquarie Capital

Christina Lopez

National Bank Financial

Dan Payne

Paradigm Capital

Lyndon Dunkley

Raymond James

Kristopher Zack

RBC Capital Markets

Shailender Randhawa

Scotia Capital

William Lee

Stifel Nicolaus

Michael Zuk

TD Securities

Juan Jarrah 18