Statkraft Investor Update November 2014 Disclaimer This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Statkraft Investor Update November 2014 Disclaimer This - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Statkraft Investor Update November 2014 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by, and the information contained herein (unless otherwise indicated) has been provided by Statkraft AS (the "Company"). By attending the meeting or
Disclaimer
This presentation has been prepared by, and the information contained herein (unless otherwise indicated) has been provided by Statkraft AS (the "Company"). By attending the meeting or otherwise viewing this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions. This document and the information therein are being furnished to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, in whole or in part, to any other person. This document does not constitute or form part of and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue or the solicitation of an offer to buy or acquire securities of the Company or any of its subsidiaries in any jurisdiction or an inducement to enter into investment activity. No part of this document, nor the fact of its distribution or reception, should form the basis of, or be relied on in connection with, any contract or commitment or investment decision whatsoever. This document is not a prospectus and does not comply with rules or regulations regarding investor information, and has not been approved by or filed with any stock exchange or regulatory authority. Amongst others, this document does not disclose risks and other significant issues related to an investment in any securities. Investors should only subscribe for any transferable securities on the basis of information in a relevant prospectus and term sheet, and not on the basis of any information provided herein. The information contained in this document has not been independently verified and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of the information or opinions contained herein. None of the Company, or any of its affiliates, advisers or representatives shall have any liability whatsoever (in negligence or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection with this document. The information contained in this document is provided as at the date of this document and is subject to change without notice. This document may not be distributed or delivered to any person or in any jurisdiction where such distribution is unlawful or restricted. This document may not be delivered in the United States or to any person or entity in the United States. 2
1.
Agenda
2. 3. 4. 5.
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
3
Statkraft overview
Peru 163 MW (+ project) Chile 94 MW Turkey 20 MW (+ projects) Nepal 23 MW Philippines 149 MW Brazil 86 MW Panama (project) Zambia 6 MW Norway 12 518 MW Sweden 1 315 MW UK 273 MW Laos 100 MW Germany 2 692 MW India 91 MW
100 %
- wned by the
Norwegian state
A- / Baa1
from S&P and Moody’s Installed capacity
17 600 MW
Power production
56 TWh 97% renewable
energy
SN POWER/ AGUA IMARA STATKRAFT
Albania (project)
2013 figures includes Statkraft’s share of installed capacity in associates
Key credit strengths
Strong market position
- A low-cost and flexible generator of renewable electricity
Stable cash flow
- Long-term industrial contracts stabilize cash flow
Capex flexibility
- Adjust investment program to financial capacity
Owned by the Norwegian state (AAA/Aaa)
- Historically strong support from owner
- No substantial changes in the State’s owner strategy in White paper published in June
2014
5
2.
Agenda
1. 3. 4. 5.
6
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
A changing energy landscape
Flat energy demand in Europe and
more production from new renewables
Growing concerns in Europe about
affordability and security of supply
Traditional “utility business model”
challenged by a transformed value chain
7
Attractive support schemes driven by
European transformation to renewable energy
New business opportunities closer to
end users and through integration of intermittent renewable capacity
Strong growth in emerging markets
Market challenges Market opportunities
District Heating
Strategic focus areas
European Flexible Generation Wind Power Hydropower in Emerging Markets Market Operations
- Maintain and develop low cost, flexible hydropower
- Build integrated operations in South East Europe, South America and
South Asia
- Onshore wind in Norway, Sweden and UK
- Become lead operator in offshore wind power in UK
- Stabilize cash flow through power contracts
- Develop Trading and Origination in selected global markets
- Become amongst the most profitable district heating companies in
Norway and Sweden
8
European Flexible Generation
Low-cost European hydropower production
- Total cash cost in 2013: 7.2 EUR/MWh
- Full cost incl. depreciation: 10.2 EUR/MWh1
Peak supplier with high degree of flexibility
- 80% of installed capacity within highly flexible
hydropower
- Europe’s largest reservoir capacity (~40 TWh)
Unique information base and power market
modelling
- Production optimised relative to power prices and
water inflows
- Water can be stored for up to three years in some
reservoirs
1 Annual Report 2013: 80 NOK/MWh. Incl. property tax and depreciations, excl. sales costs, overhead, net financial items and tax.
Based on normal production from power plants under own management in Norway, Sweden, Germany and the UK.
Blåsjø, one of Europe’s largest hydropower reservoirs, with multi-year energy storage capacity (7.8 TWh)
9
Current transmission capacity between Nordic
and Europe of 4000 MW
Planned capacity increase of 3870 MW before
2020 and another 3450 MW before 2025
Nordic-European power market integration
10
Power transmission cables (MW) Planned expansions
Source: Statnett
Price effect NO2-DE + NO2-UK: 3-5 EUR/MWh* Increased possibility to utilize our flexible assets
* Statnett estimate with the two cables, compared to a scenario with no new cables from Norway.
A major player on Europe’s power
exchanges
Special expertise within physical and
financial power trading
Active in all energy-related commodities Market access for small renewable
producers
Expanding power trading activities in
Europe, as well as in Brazil and India
Strategy for long-term contracts
11
Market Operations
Long-term contracts stabilize earnings
~ 20 TWh sold on long-term contracts
with power-intensive Nordic industry
Corresponding to ~ 40% of Statkraft’s
annual mean power production for Nordic hydropower
12
5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
GWh Statutory priced lease agreements Statkraft's share of leasing agreements Long-term market contracts
International Hydropower has been reorganized and strengthened
13
Statkraft SN Power
Statkraft has increased
- wnership and fully
integrated activities in South America and South Asia (from 60 % to 67 %) Statkraft has reduced
- wnership to activities in less
developed markets in South East Asia, Africa and Central America (from 60 % to 50 %)
Alltwalis Stamåsen Mörttjärnberget Björkhöjden Ögonfägnaden Hitra Smøla
Onshore and offshore wind power in the Nordics and UK
In operation/under construction
- Norway: 244 MW
- Sweden: 525 MW
- UK: 460 MW
Licensed/under development
- Onshore: Norway 1000 MW
Sweden 290 MW UK ~ 50 MW
- Offshore: Dudgeon 402 MW
(Statkraft 30%) Dogger Bank 4800 MW (Statkraft 25%)
Em Tollarpabjär Dudgeon Sheringham Shoal Dogger Bank Berry Burn Baillie Kjøllefjord
14
Norway 43 % Europe ex Norway 19 % Emerging markets 38 %
Allocation of investments 2014-2018
Hydropower 64 % Offshore WP 9 % Onshore WP 18 % Trading &
- rigination
3 % District heating 3 % Innovation 3 %
15
Investment ambition 2014-2018: NOK 61 billion, of which 59% is committed Subject to financial capacity and maintaining current ratings
Technology allocation Geographical allocation
Increased diversification, but still dominated by Norwegian hydropower
Solid base in the Nordic region
Estimated annual contribution after committed capex (2018)
Norway 67 % Nordic outside Norway 14 % Europe
- utside Nordic
11 % Outside Europe 8 %
EBITDA
Norway 72 % Nordic outside Norway 10 % Europe
- utside Nordic
13 % Outside Europe 5 %
Power generation (72 TWh)
16
High construction activity
Completed in 2013/2014 (~1000 MW) On-going projects (~2100 MW) European Flexible Generation
6 small-scale hydro, Norway (44 MW)
Knapsack II, Germany (430 MW)
Kjensvatn, Norway (12 MW)
Brokke Nord/Sør, Norway (24 MW)
Eiriksdal/Makkoren, Norway (56 MW)
Nedre Røssåga 1 and 2, Norway (+100 MW)
10 small-scale hydro, Norway (79 MW)
Wind Power
Baillie, UK (53 MW)
Berry Burn, UK (67 MW)
Stamåsen, Sweden (60 MW)
Tollarpabjär, Sweden (3 MW)
Mörttjärnberget, Sweden (85 MW)
Dudgeon, UK (402 MW)
Ögonfägnaden, Sweden (99 MW)
Björkhöjden, Sweden (270 MW)
International Hydropower
Binga, Philippines (126 MW)
Kargi, Turkey (102 MW)
Cetin, Turkey (517 MW)
Devoll, Albania (243 MW)
Cheves, Peru (168 MW)
Bajo Frio, Panama (58 MW)
District Heating
Ås, Norway (24 MW)
Kungsbacka, Sweden (12 MW)
Sandefjord, Norway (23 MW)
Moss, Norway (21 MW)
17 Capacity for total project, incl. partners’ share
Strengthening of financial solidity
Measures in 2014
- Divested Finnish hydropower
- Reduced ownership in UK onshore wind
- No dividend payment for 2013
Ongoing:
- Discussions with owner about investment possibilities and financing
- Reduce ownership in UK offshore wind
18
NOK ~3,5 bn
3.
Agenda
2. 1. 4. 5.
19
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
Highlights 9m 2014
20
Solid result from operations
- Lower Nordic prices offset by increased production and
contribution from market activities and long-term contracts
Currency effects and non-recurring items impact net profit
positively
Transactions
- Divestment of 66 MW power production in Finland
- Reduced ownership to 51% in onshore wind power assets in UK
- Increased ownership from 50% to 100% in UK onshore wind farm
project
- Asset swap regarding hydropower plants in Norway
Investments
- New hydropower plant in Norway completed
- Two wind power plants completed (UK and Sweden)
- Investment decision in Dudgeon Offshore Wind Farm in UK
Restructuring of International Hydro completed
9m 2014 in line with 9m 2013 for both net revenues and EBITDA Currency effects on financial items positive in 2014 but negative in 2013
- Currency effects mainly related to NOK vs. EUR
- Currency impacts are mostly unrealised with limited cash flow effect
- The effects are offset by currency translation effects in equity
Solid underlying results
NOK million 9m 2014 9m 2013 FY 2013 Net revenues1
14 868 14 467 20 545
EBITDA1
8 646 8 602 12 444
Net profit/loss
6 989
- 2 147
208
21
1Adjusted for unrealised changes in value on energy contracts and significant non-recurring items
9m production 40.6 TWh + 3%
Hydropower production
+ 3%
Wind power production + 29% Gas-fired power production - 50%
Statkraft production
22
TWh
Change from 2013:
2 4 6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Monthly power generation
2013 2014
(TWh) Hydro Wind Gas/bio Total
9m 2014 38.9 1.2 0.5 40.6 9m 2013 37.9 0.9 0.8 39.6 FY 2013 53.2 1.4 1.3 55.9 FY 2012 57.6 0.8 1.6 60.0
Price development
Higher temperatures, lower demand
and stronger hydrological balance drives Nordic prices down in 9m 2014 compared with 9m 2013
- System price: 29.2 EUR/MWh - 25%
Falling fuel prices and increased
renewables capacity drive prices down in Germany
- Spot price (base): 32.1 EUR/MWh - 15%
23 EUR/MWh
20 40 60 80 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Electricity, average monthly price
Nord Pool, system price EEX, base Nord Pool, system forward EEX, base forward
Nordic reservoir levels
Nordic reservoirs close to
median through 1H 2014
Inflow below normal
through the third quarter but recovering in October
At the end of October
reservoirs were 96 TWh corresponding to 98% of median
Reservoirs filled to 80% of
maximum capacity of 121.4 TWh
24
1 Median 1990-2012
Median1
Week
2013 2014
20 40 60 80 100 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52
%
Nordic reservoir water levels
10 880 11347 12444 8602 8646 8 000 16 000 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013 9m2013 9m2014
Solid underlying EBITDA development
∆ YTD 14/YTD 13 + 1%
1Adjusted for unrealised changes in value on energy contracts and significant non-recurring items
25
NOK million
9m 2014 in line with 9m 2013 Higher production partly offsetting
price reduction
Strong result from market operations Increase in long-term contracts Underlying operating costs relatively
stable
9m 2014 net profit breakdown
26
213 1 770 402 6 989 8 646 8 602
- 182
2 879 9m 2014 Net profit Tax
- 3 944
Net financial items +3 061 Share of profit from associates and JVs Impairments/ non- recurring items Depre- ciation
- 2 258
Unrealised changes in energy contracts
- 317
9m 2014 Adj. EBITDA Operating expenses
- ex. dep.
- 358
Revenues 9m 2013 Adj. EBITDA
Underlying EBITDA ∆ +1% vs. 9m13 Booked net profit affected by non-recurring items totalling NOK +1770 million and positive currency effects amounting to NOK +3061 million. Underlying1 EBITDA 9m 2013 => 9m 2014 Underlying1 EBITDA 9m 2014 => Net Profit 9m 2014
1Adjusted for unrealised changes in value on energy contracts and significant non-recurring items
NOK million Net currency effects Other financial items
Capital expenditure1 in 9m 2014
NOK 8 259 million
A large number of projects under
construction in current investment program
9m CAPEX distribution
- 65% expansion
- 13% shareholdings
- 7% Asset swap
- 15% maintenance
27
Nordic Hydro- power 20% Internat. Hydro- Power 38%
- Ind. Owner-
ship 7% Wind Power 29% Other2 6%
Norwegian share
- approx. 1/3
1 Exclusive loans to associates 2 Including District heating, Small-scale hydropower and Continental energy and trading
Solid cash flow
28
7 685 12 317
+5 731 +724 +1 287
- 7 867
+3 533 +1 080
- 74
+218 4 000 8 000 12 000 16 000 Cash reserves 01.01 From
- perations
Dividend from associates Change in short and long term items Investment activities Sale of non- current assets Changes in debt Dividend/ group contribution paid Share issue to minorities, currency effects Cash reserves 30.09 NOK million
Cash flow 9m 2014
Sale of non-current assets mainly regards hydro assets in Finland and wind assets in UK
4.
Agenda
2. 1. 3. 5.
29
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
Strong credit ratings
Rating target: maintain current ratings Flexible CAPEX-plans Divestments completed and further divestments considered Rating impact assessment completed prior to new investment decisions Historically strong support from owner
30
A- / Stable Baa1 / Stable
50% 25% 25%
Equity and liabilities
Interest-free liabilities Interest-bearing liabilities Equity 67% 10% 5% 18%
Assets
Current assets Other non- current assets Associates and JVs Property, plant and equipment
Balance sheet and debt overview
Balance sheet per 30.09.2014 Debt currency distribution
NOK 153bn NOK 153bn
31 NOK 45 % EUR 32 % SEK 1 % GBP 16 % USD 6 %
Interest-bearing debt NOK 36.2bn
1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 8 000 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 >2024 NOK million
Balanced debt maturity and mixed funding sources
Debt maturity profile 30.09.2014 Distribution of funding sources
32
NOK Bond Issues 33 % EUR Bond Issues 54 % NIB loans 1 % External loans subsidiaries 12 %
Liquidity position
NOK 12bn Revolving Credit Facility (5+1+1 year)
signed 19 January 2011
- Second extension agreed in 2013
- 14 counterparties
NOK 1bn in committed credit line renewed on a
yearly basis
EMTN Programme EUR 6bn
- EUR 2.6bn available under current Programme
No commercial paper outstanding
Available liquidity and target
1 Liquidity capacity defined as cash and cash equivalents, plus committed
revolving credit facilities, plus projected receipts for the next six months
Liquidity and market access
5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q3 2014 NOK million
Cash and Cash equivalents Credit Line Revolving Credit Facility
Liquidity capacity target1: >1.5x projected
payments over next six months
33
FUNDING STRATEGY
Funding overview
Norwegian bond and Commercial Paper market Euro bond market Swedish bond market Sterling and Swiss Franc bond markets
considered
Funding need Funding sources
Funding centralized on group level Flexibility through diversification of funding sources and maintaining sufficient back-stop facilities Funding need going forward determined by cash flow
from operations and capex
NOK 3.2 bn debt maturities in Q4 2014 Zero dividend in 2014
34
5.
Agenda
2. 1. 3. 4.
35
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
Summary
A competitive generator of low-cost electricity
- Dominated by flexible hydro power with large reservoir capacity
Strong position in the Nordics Flexible plans for growth
- European renewable energy production
- Hydropower outside Europe
Balanced investment plan to maintain credit strength Proven support from Norwegian government through its
100% ownership
36
Agenda
2. 1. 3. 4.
Statkraft overview Strategy and market dynamics Financial update Funding and liquidity Summary Appendix
5.
37
Statement of Comprehensive Income
38
The year NOK million 2014 2013 2014 2013 2013 COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PROFIT AND LOSS Sales revenues 9 431 9 560 30 968 32 513 48 148 Other operating revenues 2 507 415 3 329 1 117 1 415 Gross operating revenues 11 937 9 975 34 297 33 630 49 564 Energy purchase
- 5 242
- 5 377
- 16 347
- 16 131
- 24 327
Transmission costs
- 283
- 227
- 874
- 717
- 991
Net operating revenues 6 412 4 371 17 076 16 782 24 246 Salaries and payroll costs
- 595
- 814
- 2 199
- 2 288
- 3 136
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments
- 1 801
- 918
- 3 308
- 2 265
- 3 045
Property tax and licence fees
- 409
- 420
- 1 226
- 1 246
- 1 640
Other operating expenses
- 732
- 976
- 2 502
- 2 428
- 3 422
Operating expenses
- 3 537
- 3 128
- 9 234
- 8 227
- 11 243
Operating profit/loss 2 875 1 243 7 842 8 554 13 002 Share of profit/loss from associates and joint ventures 134
- 59
213 400 1 101 Financial income 141 75 722 179 237 Financial expenses
- 340
- 357
- 987
- 972
- 1 351
Net currency effects 3 185
- 1 954
3 061
- 6 878
- 9 403
Other financial items 63
- 298
83
- 1 156
- 1 076
Net financial items 3 049
- 2 504
2 879
- 8 827
- 11 592
Profit/loss before tax 6 058
- 1 320
10 934 127 2 511 Tax expense
- 1 907
- 361
- 3 944
- 2 273
- 2 303
Net profit/loss 4 151
- 1 681
6 989
- 2 147
208 Of which non-controlling interest 794 58 437 269 482 Of which majority interest 4 071
- 1 738
6 552
- 2 415
- 274
OTHER COMPREHENSIVE INCOME Items in other comprehensive income that recycle over profit/loss: Changes in fair value of financial instruments 287
- 307
137
- 856
- 1 167
Income tax related to changes in fair value of financial instruments
- 77
109
- 41
257 339 Items recorded in other comprehensive income in associates and joint arrangements
- 120
- 248
145 163 Currency translation effects
- 2 791
2 119
- 2 347
7 918 9 940 Reclassification currency transalton effects related to foreign operations disposed of in the year
- 74
- 19
- Items in other comprehensive income that will not recycle over profit/loss:
Estimate deviation pensions
- 462
- 71
- 967
276
- 174
Income tax related to changes in fair value of financial instruments 109 8 308
- 90
49 Other comprehensive income
- 3 127
1 858
- 3 176
7 650 9 154 Comprehensive income 1 024 177 3 813 5 503 9 361 Of which non-controlling interest
- 164
4 607 658 881 Of which majority interest 1 189 172 3 207 4 845 8 480 Third quarter Year to date
Statement of Financial Position
39
NOK million 30.09.2014 30.09.2013 31.12.2013 STATEMENT OF FINANCIAL POSITION ASSETS Intangible assets 2 853 3 812 3 510 Property, plant and equipment 99 080 98 491 101 269 Investments in associates and joint ventures 16 031 15 545 16 002 Other non-current financial assets 3 288 2 791 2 540 Derivatives 4 281 4 994 5 295 Non-current assets 125 534 125 634 128 615 Inventories 1 040 1 310 1 796 Receivables 6 873 8 617 9 568 Short-term financial investments 432 453 464 Derivatives 7 150 4 457 5 559 Cash and cash equivalents (included restricted cash) 12 317 9 316 7 685 Current assets 27 812 24 153 25 072 Assets 153 345 149 787 153 687 EQUITY AND LIABILITIES Paid-in capital 51 361 49 104 49 011 Retained earnings 18 119 10 779 14 328 Non-controlling interest 7 084 7 487 7 769 Equity 76 564 67 370 71 107 Provisions 18 077 20 481 19 416 Long-term interest-bearing liabilities 28 154 35 993 33 364 Derivatives 3 716 4 918 5 713 Long-term liabilities 49 947 61 391 58 494 Short-term interest-bearing liabilities 10 314 2 183 7 013 Taxes payable 3 581 3 494 3 503 Other interest-free liabilities 6 274 11 239 9 181 Derivatives 6 666 4 110 4 389 Current liabilities 26 835 21 026 24 086 Equity and liabilities 153 345 149 787 153 687
Statement of Cash Flow
40
The year NOK million 2014 2013 2013 STATEMENT OF CASH FLOW CASH FLOW FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIES Profit before tax 10 934 127 2 511 Profit/loss on sale of non current assets
- 155
- 92
- 89
Depreciation, amortisation and impairments 3 308 2 265 3 045 Profit/loss from the sale of business
- 2 276
117 121 Profit/loss from the sale of shares, and associates and joint ventures
- 69
- 153
- 153
Profit from restructuring of SN Power
- 564
- Share of profit/loss from associates and joint ventures
- 213
- 400
- 1 101
Unrealised changes in value
- 1 889
6 191 7 795 Taxes
- 3 345
- 2 471
- 2 629
Cash flow from operating activities 5 731 5 585 9 499 Changes in long term items 106
- 459
- 533
Changes in short term items 1 181 919
- 1 911
Dividend from associates 724 817 1 051 Net cash flow operating activities A 7 743 6 862 8 106 CASH FLOW FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES Investments in property, plant and equipment*
- 6 736
- 6 519
- 9 248
Proceeds from sale of non-current assets 42 9 578 9 670 Business divestments, net liquidity inflow to the Group** 3 491 327 327 Business combinations, net liquidity outflow from the Group***
- 74
69 59 Restructuring of SN Power, net liquidity outflow from the Group
- 770
- Loans to third parties
- 90
- 439
- 298
Repayment of loans 392 62 94 Considerations regarding investments in other companies****
- 589
- 23
- 59
Net cash flow from investing activities B
- 4 334
3 057 547 CASH FLOW FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES New debt 1 773 389 865 Repayment of debt
- 693
- 3 840
- 4 714
Dividend and group contribution paid
- 74
- 3 015
- 3 094
Share issue in subsidiary to non-controlling interests 206 108 135 Net cash flow from financing activities C 1 212
- 6 358
- 6 807
Net change in cash and cash equivalents A+B+C 4 621 3 561 1 846 Currency exchange rate effects on cash and cash equivalents 11 315 400 Cash and cash equivalents 01.01 7 685 5 440 5 440 Cash and cash equivalents 30.09***** 12 317 9 316 7 685 Unused commited credit lines 12 000 12 000 12 000 Unused overdraft facilities 2 200 2 214 2 200 Restricted Cash
- 261
- 12
Year to date
page 41
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