Souther n R esident Killer Whale Wor kgr oup Co -Cha ir, PF - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Agenda Item E.4.a Supplemental SRKW WG Presentation 1 November 2019 Pho to : Ho lly F e a rnb a c h, NOAA Souther n R esident Killer Whale Wor kgr oup Co -Cha ir, PF MC Ad Ho c SRKW Wo rkg ro up Je ro my Jo rding , NOAA’ s NMF S WCR SF D Upda te o n Dra ft Sa lmo n F ishe ry Risk Asse ssme nt 1

I n April 2019 the Co unc il ta ske d a n Ad -Ho c Wo rkg ro up • with re a sse ssing the e ffe c ts o f Co unc il-a re a o c e a n sa lmo n fishe rie s o n So uthe rn Re sid e nt K ille r Wha le s a nd po te ntia lly re c o mme nd c o nse rva tio n me a sure (s) o r ma na g e me nt to o l(s), tha t limit Co unc il fishe ry impa c ts Over view o n Chino o k sa lmo n pre y a va ila b ility fo r SRK W.  T he Wo rkg ro up inc lude s re pre se nta tive s fro m We st Co a st trib e s; the sta te s o f Ca lifo rnia , Ore g o n, Wa shing to n, a nd I da ho ; the PF MC; a nd NMF S’ We st Co a st Re g io n, No rthwe st F ishe rie s Sc ie nc e Ce nte r, a nd So uthwe st F ishe rie s Sc ie nc e Ce nte r.  T he Wo rkg ro up g a ve its la st upda te a t the Co unc il’ s Se pte mb e r 2019 me e ting 2 2

Ad-Hoc Wor kgr oup Schedule Pro g re ss to da te Sinc e the Se pte mb e r Co unc il me e ting the Wo rkg ro up ha s he ld a n a dditio na l two -da y me e ting a nd two we b ina rs to a ddre ss the Co unc il's q ue stio ns fro m the Se pte mb e r me e ting , furthe r its a na lysis, a nd pro g re ss to wa rds fina lizing its risk a sse ssme nt a nd re c o mme nda tio ns. Suppo rting ma te ria ls ha ve b e e n po ste d o nline fo r pub lic disse mina tio n. https:/ / www.fishe rie s.no a a .g o v/ we st-c o a st/ so uthe rn-re side nt-kille r-wha le s- a nd -fishe rie s-inte ra c tio n-wo rkg ro up E a c h wo rkg ro up me e ting thus fa r, inc luding we b ina rs, ha s a llo we d fo r multiple pub lic input o ppo rtunitie s. 3

Updated R isk Assessment 4 4

Components r eviewed at September meeting  Se c tio n 1: I ntro duc tio n  Se c tio n 2: Sta tus o f the SRK W  Se c tio n 3: SRK W a nd Chino o k Sa lmo n F ishe rie s  Se c tio n 4: PF MC Sa lmo n F ishe rie s de sc riptio n  Se c tio n 5: Risk Asse ssme nt L ink to Se pte mb e r Co unc il me e ting pre se nta tio n: https:/ / www.pc o unc il.o rg / wp-c o nte nt/ uplo a ds/ 2019/ 09/ F 3a _Sup_NMF S_SRK W_PPT 1_SE PT 2019BB.pd f 5

Added Components Chapte r 5: Risk Chapte r 3: SRKW AND Chapte r 4: PF MC Salmon Asse ssme nt F ishe r ie s De sc r iption CHINOOK SAL MON F ISHE RIE S Cha pte r 5 ha s a full de sc riptio n o f me tho do lo g y, a lo ng Cha pte r 4 no w ha s e le me nts Re o rde re d Cha pte r 3 to no w inc lude with a ppe ndic e s whic h: c a pturing pa st pe rfo rma nc e the summa ry de sc riptio n o f NMF S’ o f the Sa lmo n F MP fro m 1992 2009 b io lo g ic a l o pinio n a nd 2019 E stima te re duc tio ns in Chino o k sa lmo n a b unda nc e b y • thro ug h 2016, inc luding a sse ssme nt o f fishe rie s impa c ts o n time a nd a re a tha t a re a ttrib uta b le to Co unc il-a re a g ra phs o f Chino o k sa lmo n SRKW. o c e a n sa lmo n fishe rie s. a b unda nc e a nd ha rve st. E stima te the c ha ng e s in pre dic te d vita l SRKW ra te s • using the fitte d sta tistic a l re la tio nships pre dic t fo r Chino o k sa lmo n a b unda nc e s with a nd witho ut the re duc tio ns in a b unda nc e e stima te d fro m Co unc il- a re a o c e a n sa lmo n fishe rie s 6

Added Components Chapte r 5: Risk Asse ssme nt An a dditio na l ‘ la g -time ’ c o mpo ne nt o f Chino o k a b unda nc e wa s a dde d to the e va lua tio n o f SRKW surviva l, • a s ha d pre vio usly b e e n do ne o nly fo r fe c undity. T he de c isio n to c o nside r this te mpo ra l la g wa s b a se d o n linking fo o d supply to future pe rfo rma nc e , a nd wa s a lso a dde d to a c c o unt fo r so me unc e rta inty in the timing o f SRKW mo rta lity e ve nts. T his a ppro a c h is c o nsiste nt with the me tho ds use d a nd re vie we d during b ila te ra l NMF S – DF O wo rksho ps in 2011-2012. A c luste ring a na lysis whic h g ro upe d ye a rs o f simila r SRK W de mo g ra phic pe rfo rma nc e wa s a lso pe rfo rme d. • T his c luste ring wa s do ne inde pe nde nt o f Chino o k sa lmo n a b unda nc e , a nd ma y b e use ful in ide ntifying pa st pe rio ds o f g re a te r o r le sse r risk fo r the SRKW po pula tio n. We a lso b e g a n e xplo ring q ua lita tive c o mpo ne nts to inc o rpo ra te into the a sse ssme nt, a nd b e g a n a sse ssing • fishe ry e ffe c ts b y the sa me stra tific a tio ns de ve lo pe d a nd de sc rib e d a b o ve . T he Wo rkg ro up sub mitte d o ur me tho do lo g y a nd ma te ria ls use d to da te fo r re vie w b y the Sc ie ntific a nd • Sta tistic a l Co mmitte e (SSC). T his will a llo w the SSC time to c o nside r o ur a ppro a c h a nd pro vide c o mme nts to the Co unc il he re a t the No ve mb e r me e ting . 7

Added Components • Appe ndix A: in Se pte mb e r Dra ft Chino o k sa lmo n sto c ks e xc lude d fro m the Asse ssme nt • • Appe ndix B: in Se pte mb e r Dra ft Ab unda nc e mo de ls fo r so uthe rn sto c ks • • Appe ndix C: ne w Re g re ssio n mo de l o utput fig ure s fo r a ll 126 re la tio nships • • Appe ndix D: ne w Cluste ring Ana lysis de ta ils • Pho to b y J. Ko e ppe n F / V L ulu • Appe ndix E : ne w F ishe ry Re duc tio n de ta ils • 8

Still left to do Dur ing the last 6 months Wo rkg ro up ha s: Do c ume nte d the c urre nt sta tus o f the SRKW • DPS Pho to b y R. L De sc rib e d a nd re vie we d prio r e va lua tio ns o f • SRKW a nd Chino o k sa lmo n fishe ry inte ra c tio ns e ub e rt Ca pture d the pro c e ss b y whic h the Sa lmo n • F MP o pe ra te s L e ft to do De ve lo pe d me tho do lo g y to e xa mine • a b unda nc e a g g re g a te s o f Chino o k sa lmo n De sc rib e c urre nt fishe ry ma na g e me nt o f Co unc il fishe rie s a nd pro vide • in spe c ific a re a s o f the o c e a n b a se d o n a g e ne ra l de sc riptio n o f Co unc il o c e a n sa lmo n fishe rie s. distrib utio ns infe rre d fro m the mo st re c e nt I nte g ra te a nd synthe size the info rma tio n into like ly po ssib le e ffe c ts fro m • mo de ling e ffo rts (She lto n e t a l. 2019), a c ro ss Co unc il sa lmo n fishe rie s o n SRKW a nd ho w tha t mig ht a ffe c t c urre nt thre e time ste ps to e xa mine po te ntia l sta tus (a lo ng with inc o rpo ra ting po ssib le re c o mme nda tio ns fro m the re la tio nships to SRK W de mo g ra phic c rite ria SSC). E xa mine SRK W de mo g ra phic pe rfo rma nc e • Pro vide po te ntia l re c o mme nda tio ns fo r F MP ma na g e me nt me a sure s • to ide ntify pa st pe rio ds o f g re a te r o r le sse r b a se d o n the I nte g ra tio n a nd Synthe sis o utc o me a s ne e de d. risk fo r the SRKW po pula tio n [T he se se c tio ns a re de sc rib e d a s ‘ Pe nding ’ in c urre nt risk a sse ssme nt dra ft] 9

Cur r ent Wor kgr oup r ec ommendation Continue our wor k T he Wo rkg ro up re c o mme nds c o ntinuing its wo rk po st the 2019 No ve mb e r me e ting , to c o mple te its ta sk to info rm NMF S o n the e ffe c ts o f Co unc il-a re a o c e a n sa lmo n fishe rie s o n the Chino o k sa lmo n pre y b a se o f SRKW in b o th q ua ntita tive a nd q ua lita tive ma nne rs, a nd to po te ntia lly re c o mme nd c o nse rva tio n me a sure (s) o r ma na g e me nt to o l(s), tha t limit the fishe ry’ s impa c ts o n pre y a va ila b ility fo r SRK W. T o do so , the Wo rkg ro up ide ntifie d thre e da te s a fte r the No ve mb e r Co unc il me e ting , with the inte nt to c o mple te the a ssig ne d ta sk a nd a llo w time fo r sub mitting its fina l re po rt fo r c o nside ra tio n a t the Ma rc h 2020 Co unc il me e ting . T he da te s a re : De c e mb e r 10, 2019 • Ja nua ry 8-9, 2020 • Pho to b y Jill / Blue Mo o nb e am Studio F e b rua ry 4, 2020 • 10 10 10

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