SOCIAL MOB LITZ * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

SOCIAL MOB LITZ * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Michael Hout New York University

Americans worried about declining social mobility for a long time now 1982 1984

Americans worried about declining social mobility for a long time now Note: Data slightly smoothed by locally estimated (lowess) regression. Red data points show recessions. Source: General Social Surveys, 1977-2018.

Actual mobility by year of birth Men's mobility peaked among those born in the Great Depression Women's mobility peaked among boomers Millennials are the only cohort with more downward than upward mobility. Note: People 25–74 years old, raised in the United States, and born 1910–1990. Excluding people whose parents worked in agriculture. 
 Source data on both parents: General Social Surveys, 1994–2016. Source data on fathers: General Social Surveys, 1972–2016.

Actual mobility by year of birth Men's mobility peaked among those born in the Great Depression Women's mobility peaked among boomers Millennials are the only cohort with more downward than upward mobility. Note: People 25–74 years old, raised in the United States, and born 1910–1990. Excluding people whose parents worked in agriculture. 
 Source data on both parents: General Social Surveys, 1994–2016.

Intergenerational persistence (& mobility) depend on family structure Men Women 90 Current occupation: SEI Men Women Observed Observed 70 Both parents Both parents β = 0.58 β = 0.53 (s.e. = 0.03) (s.e. = 0.03) 50 Father only Father only β = 0.53 β = 0.41 (s.e. = 0.03) (s.e. = 0.02) 30 Mother only Mother only β = 0.26 β = 0.37 (s.e. = 0.06) (s.e. = 0.03) 10 10 30 50 70 90 10 30 50 70 90 Parents' occupations: SEI (weighted average) Note: People 25–74 years old, raised in the United States, and born 1910–1990. Excluding people whose parents worked in agriculture. 
 Source: General Social Surveys, 1994–2016.

Education mediates much of the bivariate association College as "great equalizer" Hout (1988) Torche (2011) Zhou (2019) Breen & Müller (2019) College graduates: OD association null among college graduates Less than college degree: OD association ~60% weaker than without education control (but still significant) Implication: Inequality of college opportunity is a major factor in US intergenerational persistence

Inequality of college opportunity is a major factor in US mobility