Slow turnaround
Are we in the middle of a paradigm shift?
Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen ICMA Coference, Copenhagen 24h. May 2013
- 3/15/2013
Slow turnaround Are we in the middle of a paradigm shift? Global - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Slow turnaround Are we in the middle of a paradigm shift? Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen ICMA Coference, Copenhagen 24h. May 2013 3/15/2013 Wheel of crisis turning in its sixth year 2nd phase 1st phase EFSF/ESM the great financial
Are we in the middle of a paradigm shift?
Global Chief Economist Helge J. Pedersen ICMA Coference, Copenhagen 24h. May 2013
EFSF/ESM Six-pack and early warning mechanisms Fiscal compact – budget laws Common fiscal policy Growth pact and banking union European Federation Proactive central bank/SMP/OMT
2nd phase the great recession 2008-2009 3rd phase sovereign debt crisis 2009- 1st phase financial crisis 2007-2008
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The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.
Global
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 Index Nordea Risk Perception - Main Index
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Lehman Greece Eurocrisis Spain, Greek elections Cyprus, Italian elections
Global
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DKKbn Capital requirement 70 Liquidity and funding 210 Taxes and reporting 20 Yield demand 11% Change in lending rate 2,2%-point
>3%-point GDP level (10-year period)
Source: The Danish Bankers Association
Macroeconomic consequences of Basel III on Denmark
Foreign effect GDP-level DKKbn (2010- prices)
Derived GDP-effect via exports
Total permanent effect
40-45 Source: IIF, DBA, own calculations
Global
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Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
07 08 09 10 11 12 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 % of GDP Central bank's balance sheets % of GDP
Fed ECB BoE BoJ
extraordinary measures”
Global
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MP‐plus: extraordinarily low interest rates and unconventional monetary policy measures
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 % % Japan
Easing Easing
Euro area USA
Tightening Tightening
UK
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Global
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 % % 1 0 Y governm ent bond yields USA Denmark
Lines marks beginning of policy tightening The Conondrum era
Germany
Global
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Global
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
May 12 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 13 Feb Mar Apr May
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 % Nikkei225 OMX40 DowJones DAX30 %
Source: Nordea Markets and Reuters Ecowin
92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 Index CRB spot Index
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countries like Hong Kong, France, Brazil, Canada, Norway and Sweden
Global
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Helge J. Pedersen Global Chief Economist Economic Research +45 3333 3126 helge.pedersen@nordea.com
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