SLIDES&FOR& PRESENTATION Dr.$Francesco$ Grillo THE$CHINA$ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SLIDES&FOR& PRESENTATION Dr.$Francesco$ Grillo THE$CHINA$ - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SLIDES&FOR& PRESENTATION Dr.$Francesco$ Grillo THE$CHINA$ CENTRE,' OXFORD,' 25th%FEB%2019 MA MAIN%ME MESS SSAGES 1) 1)#W #WHA HAT#IS #IS#T #THE HE#B #BOOK#AB #ABOUT? 2) 2)#RE #REAS ASONS NS#F #FOR#C R#COMPARING
MA MAIN%ME MESS SSAGES
1) 1)#W #WHA HAT#IS #IS#T #THE HE#B #BOOK#AB #ABOUT? 2) 2)#RE #REAS ASONS NS#F #FOR#C R#COMPARING ARING#C #CHINA#AND#IT HINA#AND#ITAL ALY 3) 3)#T #THE HE#INNO #INNOVATIO ION#P N#PARADO ARADOX# X# 4) 4)#T #THE HE#DE #DEMOCRA RACY#P Y#PUZZLE ZZLE 5) 5)#RE #REAS ASONS NS#W #WHY#IS HY#IS#C #CHINA#AD HINA#ADAP APTING ING#B #BETTER#T R#THAN#IT HAN#ITAL ALY/#E #EUROPE#T #TO#T #THE HE#5T #5TH#T H#TECHNO HNOLOGIC ICAL# AL# RE REVOLUTIO ION*( N*(AND*W AND*WHY*T HY*THE HE*T *TRE REND*M ND*MAY*RE Y*REVERSE*IT *ITSELF LF) 6) 6)#HO #HOW#T #TO#F #FIX#DE IX#DEMOCRA RACY#T Y#TO#S #SOLVE#T #THE HE#P #PARADO ARADOX#O X#OF#INNO #INNOVATIO ION
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WH WHAT%IS%THE%BOOK%ABOUT?%
1) 1)#IT #IT#IS #IS#NO #NOT#A#B #A#BOOK#O #ON#C N#CHINA HINA.#NO #NOR#O R#ON#IT N#ITAL ALY.#IT #IT#IS #IS#A#( #A#(FIR IRST?) ?)#A #ATTEMPT#T #TO#U #UNDE NDERSTAND#HO AND#HOW#T #THE HE# RE RELA LATIO IONS NSHIP HIP,( ,(S),B ,BETWEEN,( N,(AND,T AND,THE HE,DE ,DEFINIT INITIO IONS NS,O ,OF),“ ,“DE DEMOCRA RACY”,,“ ,“INNO INNOVATIO ION” N”,AND,“ ,AND,“GROWTH” H”,IS" S" CH CHANGING'DUE'TO' O'THE'TECH CHNOL OLOG OGICA CAL'DISCON ONTINUITIES'WHICH CH'DEFI FINES'THE'XXIs Ist CE CENTURY( 2) 2)#T #THIS HIS#IS #IS#DO #DONE NE#T #THR HROUGH#T H#THE HE#C #COMPARIS ARISON#B N#BETWEEN#T N#THE HE#T #TWO#M #MOST#DIV #DIVERGING ING#C #CAS ASES#Y #YOU#C #CAN# AN# TH THINK&OF&AMONGST& GST&TH THE& E&BIG& G&(EN ENOUGH GH)&COUNTR TRIES&OF&TH THE& E&WORLD 3) 3)#IN#F #IN#FACT,#IN#T #IN#THE HE#LAS #LAST#T #THIR HIRTY#YE Y#YEAR ARS#( #(SINC INCE#1989 1989),#CHIN HINA HAS HAS$BEEN$ N$THE HE$FAS ASTEST$GROWING ING$COUNT NTRY$ Y$OF$ TH THE$ E$(NOT$ T$LIBER ERAL!DE DEMOCRA RACY,*AS *ASIAN) IAN)*P *PAR ART*O *OF*T *THE HE*W *WORLD*W RLD*WHIC HICH*HAS H*HAS*G *GROWN*M N*MORE RE.*IT *ITAL ALY*IS Y*IS*T *THE HE* SL SLOWEST'GROWING'COUNTRY'OF'THE'(WESTERN'LIB LIBERAL AL!DE DEMOCRA RACY) Y)*PAR ART%OF%THE HE%WORLD LD%WHIC WHICH% H%HAS HAS% GROWN& WN&LE LESS.& 4)"OUR"IN INIT ITIA IAL" L"WORKIN ING"HYP HYPOTHE HESIS IS"IS IS"THA HAT"THE HERE"ARE"TWO"ARGUMENTS"WHIC WHICH" H"CAN"EXPLA LAIN IN"THE HESE" TR TREN ENDS:(TH THE( E(FIRST( ST(IS(TH THE( E(INNO INNOVATIO ION' N'PAR ARAD ADOX;( ;(TH THE$ E$SE SECOND'IS' S'THE'LIBERAL'DE DEMOCRA RACY)P Y)PUZZLE ZZLE."O ."OUR" R" TH THESIS&IS&TH THAT& T&IN&ORDER ER&TO&SOLVE& E&TH THE& E&FORMER ER,&YOU&NEED EED&TO&FIX&TH THE& E&LATTER TER.& 5) 5)#T #THE HE#B #BOOK#IS #IS#C #CONC NCLUDE DED#B D#BY#T Y#TEN#IDE N#IDEAS AS#W #WHIC HICH#C H#CAN#DO AN#DO#T #THA HAT:#IN#A#NU :#IN#A#NUTSHE HELL LL,#T #THE HE#IDE #IDEA#IS A#IS#T #THA HAT#IN# #IN# OR ORDER%TO% O%SAVE VE%DEMOCR OCRACY CY%AND%THE%WEST,%YOU OU%NEED%TO% O%CH CHANGE%THE%INSTITUTION ONS%OF% OF%DEMOCR OCRACY CY% AND$ AND$TRANS RANSFORM RM$IT IT$INT INTO$A" A"CO COLLECTIVE(PROBLEM(SOLVING(EXERCISE((I. I.E.%A%“MET METHOD”/)I )INFORMA RMATION) SY SYSTEM STEM&TO&GATHE HER'IND INDIV IVID IDUAL' AL'PREFERENC NCES'INT INTO'COLLE LLECTIV IVE'INT INTELLIG LLIGENC NCE))WHIC HICH) H)IS IS#SOMETHING HING# TH THAT,%PARADOXICALLY,%MA MAY$G $GIVE$T E$TO$C $CHINA$T $THE$C E$CAPABILITY$T $TO$B $BET ETTER ER$A $ADAPT$T $TO$T $THE$MU E$MUTATION$T $THAT$W $WE$ E$ CA CALL$FI FIFT FTH$INDUSTRIAL$REVOL OLUTION ON
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TH THE$S $STAR ARTI TING$P $POINT$O T$OF$TH $THE$RE $RESEAR ARCH CH$(AN $(AND$TH $THE$$ $$ CONCL CLUSION(O (OF(P (PREVIOUS(Ph Ph.D." ."WORK"AT"THE"LSE LSE"AND"BOOK)
WH WHICH%IS%THE%RIGHT%«QUANTITY»%OF%PARTICIPATION%FOR%A%(INNOVATION)%POLICY% TO TO#WORK?#
INNOVATION POLICY PERFORMANCE OPENNESS OF POLICY MAKING
TOP$DOWN DISPERSED COOPERATIVE
Wales Scotland Castilla Y"Leon" Pais Vasco& South& Yorkshire Murcia
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SUSTAINABLE GROWTH DEMOCRACY
CENTRALLY) PLANNED FAILING'LIBERAL' DEMOCRACY PARTICIPATORY,* ELECTRONIC,* DIRECT' DEMOCRACY
CHINA ITALY ESTONIA,) SWITZERLAND,- AUSTRALIA,) CANADA
TH THE$ E$SCALE$ E$UP$ UP$OF$TH THE$ E$ARGUM GUMEN ENT$ T$AT$ T$A$GL GLOBAL$ LE LEVEL$ L$AND$ AND$THE HE$INIT INITIAL$ IAL$THE HESIS SIS
WH WHICH%IS%THE%RIGHT%«QUANTITY»%(OR%QUALITY)%OF%DEMO MOCRACY%FOR% (I (INNO NNOVATION( N(DR DRIVEN)( N)(GROWTH(TO(BE(SUSTAINA NABLE?(
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TWO$EXTREME$(AND$BIG)$CASES
- 2nd$in$the$world$ranking$for$GDP$growth
since 1989
- In#1989#the#poorest of#the#world
- 70%$of$world$poverty reduction (between
1990$and$2015$! MDG)
- Second'in'the'PISA'score'for'mathematics
- 50%$of$the$266$world$unicorns are$chinese
- Average HALE%higher than USA
- One of#the#five left CP#led#countries of#the#
world&and&only one amongst them with%no% general'election
- 188th%in%the%world%ranking%for%GDP%growth since
1989$
- In#1994#the#fourth largest economy
- Poverty tripled since 2005$(from$1.8$to$5.1$mio$
- f#individuals in#absolute poverty)
- Only OECD%country%net%exporter of#graduates
- Position'number 24#in#the#EU#for#e!commerce
- Highest HALE%in%the%EU%but dropped since 2014
- Founder of#the#EU,#it is the$EU$country$where
people one of#the#highest ratio&between elections and$people
CHINA ITALY
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CHINA ESTONIA ITALY RUSSIA AUSTRALIA GERMANY UK US CANADA NORWAY JAPAN FRANCE BRAZIL CUBA UAE
LOW$GDP$GROWTH$ HIGH$DEMOCRACY
QATAR
HIGH GDP$GROWTH$ HIGH$DEMOCRACY HIGH GDP$GROWTH$ LOW DEMOCRACY LOW$GDP$GROWTH$ HIGH DEMOCRACY
Source:(Authors,(using(data(from(the(World(Bank(and(EIU
+ 10,0% ! 10,0$% + 5,0 ! 5,0
IS IS#THER HERE# E#AN#IN INCOMPARABIL ILIT ITIT ITY#IS ISSUE?# E?#THE# HE#LIB IBER ERAL#DEM EMOCRACY#PUZZL ZZLE# E#AND#THE# HE# AR ARGUM UMENT)OF)THE)“CATCH)UP UP”)AN AND)OF)“DEMOCRA RACY) Y)AS AS)LUX UXUR URY”
GD GDP$ P$gr growth'rates es'(1996 1996–2016;& 2016;&difference ces)ag again ainst'the'world ld'av average;'horizontal'axis)'and'Th The$Economis ist’s$ de democrac racy)i )inde ndex (2015;'from'0'to'10;'ver ertical'axis) s)'
THE$ARGUMENT$ (AND%ITS%OBJECTIONS)% CORRELATION:+!0,45 CORRELATION*(OECD*):*! 0,36 CORRELATION*(NOT*OECD):*! 0,61 NOT$TRUE$DEMOCRACY$IS$LUXURY UP#TO#1989#NO#«CATCH#UP»#AND# CORRELATIONS+WERE+POSITIVE
7
$ $
- f
$ $$ YEAR Source:(IDC,(UCB
130 1227 8591 40026
2005 2010 2015 2020
THE$INFORMATION$PARADOX$(1) – AGAINST'AN'INFORMATION'DELUGE..''
INFORMATION)STORED'IN'ALL'DIGITAL'DEVICES'(EXABYTES*)
8
2,41% 1,84% 1,71% 1,37% 0,57% 0,00% 0,50% 1,00% 1,50% 2,00% 2,50% 3,00% 1971*1979 1980*1989 1990*1999 2000*2007 2007*2016
Source:(Authors(on(OECD(data
TH THE$INFORMATI TION$PARADOX$(2) .." .."PRODUC UCTIVITY" Y"IS" S"STAGNATING"AN AND"THIS" S"SE SEEMS" S"TO"CONTRAD ADICT"THE"DOMINAN ANT" EN ENDOGEN ENOUS(GROWTH( H(THE HEORY((LUCAS,(ROMER ER)
PR PRODUCTI TIVITY TY+GR GROWTH TH+RATE TES,+G7 G7,+AVER ERAGE+ GE+OF+YEARLY+INCREASE+ E+
9
Source:(Authors(on(OECD(data
TH THE$INFORMATI TION$PARADOX$(3) HO HOWEV EVER ER'THIS HIS'DOES'NOT'SEEM EEM'TO'HA HAPPEN EN'IN IN'CHIN HINA
PR PRODUCTI TIVITY TY+GR GROWTH TH+RATE TES,+AVER ERAGE+ GE+OF+YEARLY+INCREASE+ E+
!6,00% !4,00% !2,00% 0,00% 2,00% 4,00% 6,00% 8,00% 10,00% 12,00% 14,00% 16,00% 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
G7 China
10
TH THE$ENTR TREPRENEURIAL$STATE TE$
PER PERCEN ENTAGE) GE)DISTR STRIBUTI TION)OF)WORLDWIDE) E)KILOMETR ETRES)OF)OPER PERATI TING) G)SUBWAYS)IN)CITI TIES)(LEF EFT) T)) AND$ AND$HIG HIGH!SP SPEED%TRAINS% S%(RIGHT)%IN%2018%(100%%16,339%KM%SU SUBWAY;%41,820%KM%HIGH!SP SPEED% TR TRAIN)
CHINA 34% USA 10% JAPAN 6% UK 4% GERMANY 3% ITALY 2% INDIA 3% RUSSIA 4% SPAIN 3% SOUTH;KOREA 6% OTHER; COUNTRIES 25% CHINA 64,2% JAPAN 7,3% SOUTH;KOREA 2,1% TURKEY 1,7% FRANCE 6,6% GERMANY 4,0% ITALY 2,3% SPAIN 7,0% UK 0,3% USA 1,8% OTHERS 2,6%
Source:(Authors,(using(data(from%UIC$(Union$International$des$Chemins$Fer)"and"International"Association"of"Public"Transport.
SIMILAR'PATTERNS'FOR RENEWABLE(ENERGY:(21% ELECTRIC'CARS:'32,2% 5G#TOWERS#(MORE#CHINA#IN# LAST% 3"MONTHS"THAN"USA"IN"THE" LAST% 3"YEARS)
11
INVE INVESTMENT ENT(AS (AS(A(R (A(REF EFLECTIO ION(O N(OF(D (DIF IFFER ERENT ENT(APPR (APPROACH(T H(TO(T (TIM IME
Pe Percentage)investments)over)GDP)for)selected)BRIC)and)G7)countries)(1990 1990–2017) 2017)
10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 50,00 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
China Germany India Italy Japan Russia United@States
CHINA&IS&LESS&THE&«FACTORY»& OF#THE#WORLD#THAN#EU# EXPORTS(OVER(GDP((2018)( CHINA:'19% ITALY:'26% WORLD:'28%
Source:(Authors,(using(data(from(the(World(Bank
12
TH THE$COST$ T$OF$GOING$TOO$FAST$ T$FOR$TOO$LONG
Evolution)of#debt#over#GDP#in#China#(%,$2012–2017)
LEVERAGE'FOR'OECD' COUNTRIES: 260$IN$2007;$260$IN$2017
29,6 33 35,4 38,2 44,2 46,4 105,5 109,3 113 119,4 128,1 134,9 15,5 16 38,6 36,4 36,6 37,5
50 100 150 200 250 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Households Companies Government
Source:(Authors,(using(data(from(IMF$data
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THE$«SECRET»$OF$THE$EXPERIMENTAL$ CENTRAL(PLANNER
PROBLEM( SETTING SOLUTIONS( GENERATION DEPLOY MENT EXPERI MENTS
FAILURE SUCCESS
- 1. SELF%DRIVING%CAR%(IN%GUANGZHOU)
- 2. DIGITAL'ROAD'(IN'BEIJING)
- 3. FULLY%AUTOMATED%SUPERMARKET%(IN%BEIJING)
- 4. ACTIVE'AGING'(IN'SHANGHAI'UNIVERSITIES)
- 5. UNIVERSAL*BASIC*INCOME
- 6. DRONES'AND'E'COMMERCE'(SICHUAN'COUNTRY'SIDE)
- 7. CITIZENS(RATING(
- 8. FACIAL&RECOGNITION&(IN&XINJIANG&AND&IN&SHENZHEN)
- 9. CASHLESS'SOCIETY'(ALIPAY'AND'WECHAT)
- 10. UNIVERSAL*TRANSLATORI
14
TH THE$GREATE TEST$ T$OF$TH THE$SEVEN$CH CHALLENGES$– IN INEQU QUALIT ITY*IN IN*A*CPC*LED ED*COUNTRY
Sh Share&of#total#national#income# e#for#differ eren ent#segm segmen ents# s#of#the# e#Chinese# ese#population#by#income# e#level els# s# (1978 1978–2015) 2015)
Source:(Authors,(using(data(from%World&Inequality&Database'(PARIS'SCHOOL'OF'ECONOMICS)
10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Top$10% Middle&40% Bottom%50%
THE$GREATEST$CHALLENGE$ WILL$BE,$HOWEVER,$TO$ NAVIGATE(IN(UNCHARTERED( WATERS'WITHOUT'HAVING' SOMEBODY((THE(WEST)TO( FOLLOW
15
IT ITALY’S(SYNDROME( E(– TOO#MUCH#PAS AST..# ..#
PU PUBLIC IC'EXPE XPENDIT ITURE'ON ON'PE PENSION IONS'AND'EDUCATION ION'(FROM OM'PR PRE'PR PRIM IMARY'TO' O'TERTIA IARY'EDUCATION ION)'(%;'2017;' 6" 6"MAJO JOR"EUROPEAN AN"ECONOMIES) Source:(Authors,(using(data(from%EUROSTAT
16,8 11,0 15,3 11,0 11,6 8,6 4,1 4,3 5,5 5,2 4,2 5,3 ITALY GERMANY FRANCE UK SPAIN POLAND PENSIONS EDUCATION 4,1 2,6 2,8 2,1 2,8 1,6
RATIO&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& EXPENDITURE*FOR* PENSIONS'' VS#EXPENDITURE# FOR$EDUCATION 16
TH THE$ITALIAN$JOB$ B$! .." .."AN AND"TOO"LITTLE"FUT UTUR URE
EM EMPLOYMEN ENT)RATES)(%) Source:(Authors,(using(data(from%ISTAT
65,5 66,3 53,4 58,6 55,5 58,0 58,7 64,4 54,2 47,9 58,1 67,2 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
FINANCIAL CRISIS EURO7AREA ITALY (507; 60) ITALY (7ALL7) ITALY (257; 30)
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REASONS'FOR'HIGHER/'LOWER'CAPABILITY'TO' ADAPT
- Central(planning(with(experiments
and$market$signals
- Long%term view (marxism,"
confucian)
- Democracy as informal problem
solving technique
- Meritocracy
- Study
- No#strategy
- Electoral cycles driven timing&in&
politics and$debate
- Democracy as voting
- Adverse selection
- Highest ratio&between pensions and$
education
CHINA ITALY
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WH WHO$IS$GOING$TO$WI WIN$THE$21ST$CENTURY$(AND$WH WHERE$IS$THE$EU?) PROBLEM( SETTING INVENTION SOLUTIONS( GENERATION PRODUCT SOLUTIONS( EXPERIMENT ATION MARKETING SOCIAL' TRANSFOR MATION BUSINESS' SCALE&UP
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COLLECTIVE(CHOICES/( STATE ANIMAL&SPIRIT/& MARKETS
FINE%TUNING%DEFINITIONS
- DEMOCRACY
as a"method for$collective problem solving and$not just%voting
- INNOVATION
as transformation of#a#society#and#not only R&D$expenditure
- GROWTH
as enhancement of#capabilities and$not just%GDP
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SUSTAINABLE GROWTH DEMOCRACY
CENTRALLY) PLANNED FAILING'LIBERAL' DEMOCRACY KNOWLEDGE) DEMOCRACY
CHINA ITALY&AND&THE&EU ESTONIA,) SWITZERLAND,- AUSTRALIA,) CANADA
TH THE$ E$QUALIFICATI TION$OF$TH THE$ E$INITI TIAL$TH THESIS,$NEW EW$ RE RESEAR ARCH' CH'QU QUESTIO IONS NS'AND' AND'FU FURTHE HER' R'RE RESEAR ARCH CH
Further investigations
- Much more%research on#
CHINA
- Parallel between China&
today and$Japan$in$the$ eighties
- More%research on#evolving
democracies
- Experiments based research
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TEN$IDEAS$TOWARDS$A$KNOWLEDGE$DEMOCRACY$
1. Problem(based(deliberations((City(councils(in(Canada;(China) 2. More%information%rich%representative%democracies%(Australian;%but%US%Senate%as%examples) 3. Better%referenda%(Switzerland) 4. Qualifications,of#the#right#to#vote#need#to#be#explored((Switzerland) 5. Qualification+of+the+right+to+be+elected+needs+to+be+considered)(EU)elections)as)a)test) 6. Flexible'constituencies'should'be'introduced'to'take'on'board'new'forms'of'citizenship* (Estonia) 7. More%competition%in%traditional%media%and%more%responsibility%on%the%social%ones% 8. Big$data$aided$transparency$to$be$transformed$from$an$obligation$to$an$active$pursuit 9. Rule%of%law%needs%to%be%reconsidered%as#a#limit#to#power
- 10. The$traditional$pre$requisite$of$better$democracy:$education,$freedom$and$economic$
freedom
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