Stuff you should know (to Win Arguments and Influence Nutjobs!) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Stuff you should know (to Win Arguments and Influence Nutjobs!) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Mar 30, 2023 35 likes •289 views

Stuff you should know (to Win Arguments and Influence Nutjobs!) Santa Clara, CA Sylvia A. Allegretto Center on Wage & Employment Dynamics University of California, Berkeley Econ 101 (in very colorful but not so pretty pictures) This

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Santa Clara, CA

Sylvia A. Allegretto Center on Wage & Employment Dynamics University of California, Berkeley

Stuff you should know

(to Win Arguments and Influence Nutjobs!)

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SLIDE 2

Econ 101

(in very colorful but not so pretty pictures)

  • This is a man made mess
  • This presentation will either…

 put you to sleep  or piss you off

  • Ayn Rand is popping bennies & partying

like it’s 1929!

  • Greenspan didn’t know banks

wouldn’t regulate themselves…what?

  • Have you seen Inside Job!!
  • We’re screwed without big changes

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 3

The only deficit that matters…

  • 10%
  • 8%
  • 6%
  • 4%
  • 2%

0% 2%

3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 CA 2 0 0 1

CA today! ( as of Aug. ’1 1 )

  • 7 .5 % or -1 .1 m illion

CA 1 9 9 0

US today ( as of Aug. ’1 1 )

  • 5 .0 % or -6 .8 m illion

Source: Sylvia Allegretto’s analysis of Current Employment Statistics data. Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 4

The rich are getting richer!

Trickle up economics 1983-2009

Source: Allegretto 2011 “The State of America’s Wealth 2011”

  • 4.1%
  • 2.0%
  • 1.4%

5.7% 9.8% 10.2% 41.5% 40.2%

  • 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5

Lowest fifth (0- 20) Lower middle (20-40) Middle fifth (40-60) Upper middle (60-80) Next 10% (80-90) Next 5% (90-95) Next 4% (95-99) T

  • p 1%

(99-100)

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 5

Work Vs. a call to your broker

1945 25.0% 2011 15.0% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% T

  • p Capital Gains Tax Rates

Taxes on Investments Are Historically Low

Source: Citizens for Tax Justice

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SLIDE 6

What/Who is to Blame for State Budget Gaps?

The Housing Bust & the Great Recession!!!

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 7

CEOs of Bell.

Robert Rizzo, former city manager of Bell, California, was making $787,638 per year in that position.

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 8

Source: Allegretto & Keefe CWED Brief October 2010. Allegretto EARN 2011 1 2 % 2 2 % 2 0 % 9 % 2 4 % 1 1 % 3 % 1 3 % 1 7 % 1 2 % 3 4 % 2 1 % 0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 % 2 0 % 2 5 % 3 0 % 3 5 % 4 0 % Less than high school High School Som e College Associates degree Bachelors degree Advanced degree* Private sector w orkers State & local governm ent w orkers

Educational attainment of California’s workers

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Comparison of CAs public vs. private sector earnings and total compensation

  • 7 .7 7 % * *
  • 7 .5 5 % *
  • 7 .8 6 % * *

0 .8 9 % 1 .0 7 % 0 .0 1 %

  • 9.00%
  • 8.00%
  • 7.00%
  • 6.00%
  • 5.00%
  • 4.00%
  • 3.00%
  • 2.00%
  • 1.00%

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% State & Local Governm ent State Governm ent Local Governm ent Annual Earnings Annual Total Com pensation

Note: **1% and *5% significance levels. Source: Allegretto & Keefe CWED Brief October 2010.

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 10

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Number of State and Local Government Employees Per 1,000 Residents

The States With The Lowest Public Union Density The States With The Highest Public Union Density

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Allegretto 2011

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SLIDE 11

0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 Share of State and Local Workers

Allegretto 2011 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics 14.7% 15.2% 14.5% 14.4% 14.6% Aug-11

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20 40 60 80 100 120 140

10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 State and Local Workers Per 1,000 Residents Public Union Density

Source: U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Allegretto 2011

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SLIDE 13

ist H h st st

hrs edu unemp House Gap ε ϕ λ β ξ β + + ⋅ + ⋅ + + Χ ± + =

∑ ∏

>0 1

ln ln ln

∏

∞ > >

≅ ∞ < <

φ α

ϕ b 271 . lim : and R where

**this is a joke!!**

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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Specifications

(1) (2)

Controls: Public sector union density

coeff 0.245* 0.114 se (0.097) (0.082)

House price decline

coeff

  • 0.561**

se

  • (0.11)

Set of union dummy variables

N N

Adjusted R2

0.096 0.421

Note: **1% and *5% significance levels. FHFA State house price change 2005-10. Unionstats.org 2009 public sector union density. Union effects from AFSCME compiled data.

The Housing Bust

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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SLIDE 15

Largest Shortfall on Record

  • $40
  • $75
  • $80
  • $45
  • $110
  • $191
  • $130*
  • $103*
  • $46**

2002 2003 2004 2005 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Total state budget shortfall in each FY, in billions

*Reported to date ;** Preliminary Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities 2011

Last Recession

Allegretto 2011

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What the hell has been going on?

The “Free Market” is BS rhetoric

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“I am trying to enjoy the fruits of my labor...”

~Lucinda Williams

100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 350.0 400.0 450.0 1947 1951 1955 1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007

I ndex ( 1 9 7 3 = 1 0 0 )

Average hourly compensation Average hourly wage

Productivity

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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Widening wedge of wage inequality

70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

I ndex ( 1 9 7 3 = 1 0 0 )

95th 90th 80th 50th 20th 10th

Guys

Source: Economic Policy Institute’s analysis of CPS data downloaded from stateofworkingamerica.org

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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Widening wedge of wage inequality

80.0 90.0 100.0 110.0 120.0 130.0 140.0 150.0 160.0 170.0 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 2009

I ndex ( 1 9 7 3 = 1 0 0 )

95th 90th 80th 50th 20th 10th

Galz

Source: Economic Policy Institute’s analysis of CPS data downloaded from stateofworkingamerica.org

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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The not so invisible hand

Bottom 90 percent Next 5 percent

Next 4 percent Rest of top 1 percent T

  • p 0.1

percent

15.9% 21.1% 9.4% 19.1% 36.4%

57.5%

Source: EPI analysis of Piketty & Saez 2009.

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007

Top 1% Next 10%

Next 20%

Next 9% Middle 20% Bottom 40%

The Dow ain’t gonna save you

Source: Allegretto 2011.

Allegretto Council 57, 2011

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A question of ideology…

A century of change in reverse:

 Unions leveling the playing field  Progressive tax structure  Investments in education  Workers’ compensation  Unemployment Insurance  Social security & Medicare  Child labor laws  Pension plans & dignity in retirement  Employer provided health care

Allegretto 2011

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Oh, Oh, Oh, Oh just like a YoYo

~The Osmonds 1971 smash hit #3 Billboard Hot 100!

  • Rise & fall on merit or luck
  • Doubling down on free market ideals
  • Dismantling of public services & goods
  • Shrinking social & worker safety nets
  • Anti-labor sentiment & regulation
  • Erosion of workers rights
  • Shifting the tax, health care & retirement

burden to workers

  • Vilified public sector workers & government

Allegretto 2011

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The U United C Corpora porations tions

  • f America?

rica? A Plutocracy of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

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