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SIMON POLL 2016
Paul Simon Public Policy Institute
DAVID A. YEPSEN
DIRECTOR AND VETERAN POLITICAL REPORTER
- U.S. Senate Primaries
- Presidential Primaries
SIMON POLL 2016 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute DAVID A. YEPSEN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SIMON POLL 2016 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute DAVID A. YEPSEN - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SIMON POLL 2016 Paul Simon Public Policy Institute DAVID A. YEPSEN U.S. Senate Primaries Presidential Primaries DIRECTOR AND VETERAN POLITICAL REPORTER DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY Other/Don't know, 16% Clinton, Sanders, 51%
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DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
Clinton, 51% Sanders, 33% Other/Don't know, 16%
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DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate Male Female <35 35-50 51-65 66+ White Non-White
Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
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REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
Bush, 9% Carson, 6% Cruz, 15% Kasich, 13% Rubio, 14% Trump, 28% Other/Don’t know , 16%
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REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate Male Female <35 35-50 51-65 66+
Kasich Trump Cruz Rubio Other/Don't know
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REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate Male Female <35 35-50 51-65 66+
Trump Not Trump
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DEMOCRATIC U.S. SENATE PRIMARY
Duckworth, 52% Zopp, 6% Harris, 4% Other/Don't know, 37%
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REPUBLICAN U.S. SENATE PRIMARY
Kirk, 53% Marter, 14% Other/Don't know, 33%
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JOHN S. JACKSON, PhD
VISITING PROFESSOR
- Job Approval
- Right Direction/Wrong Direction
- Budget
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APPROVAL: GOVERNOR RAUNER
Approve, 41% Disapprove, 50% Neither/Don't know, 10%
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APPROVAL: GOVERNOR RAUNER
By area By year
37% 31% 32% 41% 50% 10%
Approve Disapprove Neither/Don't know
2015 2016
34% 58% 8% 43% 47% 10% 43% 49% 8%
Approve Disapprove Neither/Don't know
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate
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RIGHT DIRECTION, WRONG DIRECTION
29% 63% 8% 9% 84% 7% 50% 42% 8%
Right direction Wrong direction Don’t know
USA Illinois Local Area
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ILLINOIS: RIGHT DIRECTION, WRONG DIRECTION
79% 68% 80% 75% 70% 75% 76% 68% 63% 84% 10% 22% 12% 15% 20% 16% 15% 23% 22% 9%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a 2014b 2015 2016
Wrong Direction Right Direction
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EFFECTS OF THE BUDGET IMPASSE
Yes, 32% No, 62%
Have you or someone in your immediate family been affected by the Illinois budget stalemate?
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EFFECTS OF THE BUDGET IMPASSE
10% 7% 15% 2% 27% 10% 4% 27% 24%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%
Child care costs/services City government cuts Higher education (including MAP grants) Infrastructure decline Job lost/threatened Local economy Housing (affordability, quality) Social services Other/Don't know
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BUDGET: RAISE TAXES, CUT SPENDING, OR BOTH?
Cuts, 47% Both, 33% Revenues, 10%
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BUDGET: RAISE TAXES, CUT SPENDING, OR BOTH?
57% 57% 58% 55% 52% 43% 42% 47% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29% 32% 34% 33% 10% 9% 7% 8% 10% 16% 14% 10%
2009 2010 2011 2013 SP 2014 FA 2014 2015 2016
Cuts Both Revenues
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BUDGET: FAVORABILITY TOWARD CUTS
49% 38% 35% 26% 25% 17% 15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
State pension benefits Natural resources State universities Public safety spending Programs for poor people K-12 education Programs for people with disabilities
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BUDGET: FAVORABILITY TOWARD REVENUES
75% 66% 54% 50% 45% 41% 32% 22%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Millionaires tax Graduated income tax Tax retirement income over $50k Expand gambling Tax services Raise gas tax Restore temporary income tax increase Tax retirement income
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BUDGET: FAVORABILITY TOWARD REVENUES
2008 2009 2010 2011 2013 2014a 2014b 2015 2016 Millionaires tax Graduated income tax Tax retirement income
- ver $50k
Expand gambling Tax services Raise gas tax Restore temporary state income tax increase Tax retirement income
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DELIO A. CALZOLARI, JD
ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR
- Marijuana
- Marriage Equality
- Abortion
- Veterans’ Courts
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MEDICAL MARIJUANA
Favor, 82% Oppose, 16% Other/Don't know, 3%
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MEDICAL MARIJUANA
89% 9% 81% 16% 78% 20% 90% 8% 81% 17% 83% 14% 79% 18% 88% 10% 84% 15% 75% 22%
Favor Oppose
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate <35 years 35-50 years 51-65 years 66+ years Democrats Independents Republicans
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MEDICAL MARIJUANA - REGION
89% 9% 81% 16% 78% 20%
Favor Oppose Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate
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MEDICAL MARIJUANA - AGE
90% 8% 81% 17% 83% 14% 79% 18% Favor Oppose
<35 years 35-50 years 51-65 years 66+ years
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MEDICAL MARIJUANA – PARTY
88% 10% 84% 15% 75% 22% Favor Oppose
Democrats Independents Republicans
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RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA
Yes, legal, 45% No, not legal, 51% Other/Don’t know, 4%
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RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA
60% 36% 44% 51% 37% 62% 72% 24% 52% 44% 49% 49% 29% 68% 53% 44% 48% 47% 31% 67%
Yes, legal No, not legal
Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate <35 years 35-50 years 51-65 years 66+ years Democrats Independents Republicans
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RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA - REGION
60% 36% 44% 51% 37% 62%
Yes, legal No, not legal Chicago City Chicago Suburbs Downstate
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RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA - AGE
72% 24% 52% 44% 49% 49% 29% 68%
Yes, legal No, not legal
<35 years 35-50 years 51-65 years 66+ years
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RECREATIONAL MARIJUANA - PARTY
53% 44% 48% 47% 31% 67%
Yes, legal No, not legal
Democrats Independents Republicans
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ABORTION
Legal under certain circumstances, 44% Legal under any circumstances, 36% Illegal in all circumstances, 15%
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ABORTION
51% 45% 44% 42% 44% 40% 43% 44% 28% 32% 37% 37% 36% 39% 37% 36% 18% 19% 16% 17% 15% 15% 15% 15%
2009 2010 2012 2013 2014a 2014b 2015 2016 Legal under certain circumstances Legal under any circumstances Illegal under all circumstances
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MARRIAGE EQUALITY
Allowed to legally marry, 53% Allowed to form civil unions, 25% No legal recognition
- f relationships,
16%
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MARRIAGE EQUALITY
29% 34% 44% 46% 53% 56% 55% 53% 35% 34% 32% 30% 23% 21% 20% 25% 31% 27% 20% 20% 17% 16% 18% 16%
2009 2010 2012 2013 2014a 2014b 2015 2016 Allowed to legally marry Allowed to form civil unions No legal recognition of relationships
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VETERANS’ COURTS
Some say military veterans charged with crimes should be processed in so-called “veterans’ courts” that could offer post-traumatic stress treatment and substance abuse treatment instead of incarceration. Others say veterans should be processed in the same courts as everyone else…
54% 40% 7%
Special courts No special treatment Other/Don't know
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SHILOH L. DEITZ, MA
INSTITUTE RESEARCHER & COORDINATOR
Southern Illinois Attitudes and Community Development
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QUALITY OF LIFE, ILLINOIS
48% 55% 45% 46% 51% 51% 57% 54% 51% 37% 33% 38% 34% 32% 33% 31% 31% 32% 14% 13% 17% 20% 17% 16% 12% 15% 16%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014a 2014b 2015 2016
Excellent
- r Good
Average Not so good or poor
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QUALITY OF LIFE, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND ILLINOIS
32% 39% 29% 51% 32% 16%
Excellent or Good Average Not so good or poor Southern Illinois 2015 Illinois 2016
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SOUTHERN ILLINOIS CONCERNS
*Respondents rated this concern a 6-10 out of 10
71% 66% 70% 63% 54% 73%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Children won't have opportunities and will leave Being able to afford health care for my family Dealing with rising costs Have earnings cut back Being able to afford to send kids to college Rural/small town way of life is dying
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DOWNTOWN REVITALIZATION
*Across Illinois only 37% believe it is very important to improve downtown (SP2015 Simon Poll)
Very important 59% Somewhat important 25%
Not important/Don't know 16%
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LOCAL PRODUCTS
2% 77% 19% 3%
Less likely More likely Does not affect Other/Don't know
*Across Illinois 58% would be more likely to buy a product because it’s local (Spring 2015 Simon Poll) Thinking about a normal trip to the grocery store, does knowing that a product is locally produced make you … to purchase a product?
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THANK YOU FOR COMING!
Questions?