Setting Catch Limits: Assessment, Peer Review,Targets, and Thresholds - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Setting Catch Limits: Assessment, Peer Review,Targets, and Thresholds - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Jul 15, 2023 185 likes •446 views

Pacific Fishery Management Council Setting Catch Limits: Assessment, Peer Review,Targets, and Thresholds Steve Ralston NOAA Fisheries SWFSC, Santa Cruz, CA Steve.Ralston@noaa.gov Lingcod ( Ophiodon elongatus ) Courtesy Ray Troll Pacific

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Setting Catch Limits: Assessment, Peer Review,Targets, and Thresholds

Steve Ralston NOAA Fisheries SWFSC, Santa Cruz, CA Steve.Ralston@noaa.gov

Lingcod (Ophiodon elongatus) Courtesy Ray Troll

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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SLIDE 2

Four Fishery Management Plans

  • Groundfish

‐ rockfish, roundfish, flatfish, elasmobranchs

  • Salmon

‐ Chinook (king), coho (silver)

  • Coastal pelagic species (CPS)

‐ sardine, mackerel, squid, anchovy

  • Highly migratory species (HMS)

‐ tunas, billfish, pelagic sharks

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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SLIDE 3

Pacific Fishery Management Council

Detailed Look at Groundfish

  • Stock assessment process
  • Peer review
  • Targets and Thresholds (ACLs)

‐ Healthy stocks ‐ Rebuilding stocks

  • Assemblage targets

Starry flounder Platichthys stellatus Courtesy Ray Troll

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Stock Assessment Allowable Biological Catch (ABC) Harvest Policy Exploitable Biomass Promulgate Regulations Socioeconomic, Allocation, and Other Issues Optimum Yield (OY) OY < ABC Pacific Fishery Management Council Stock Assessment Team

“Wall of Science”

A three meeting process, with a five month notice and comment period, to be conducted once every 2 years

science review

Regulating PFMC Groundfish Harvests

Terms of Reference

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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SLIDE 5

Contents of Groundfish Stock Assessment

Title Page and Authors Executive Summary Introduction Assessment Data – landings, compositions, surveys, sample sizes, CVs, etc. Modeling History – response to previous STAR and GAP comments Model Description – fleets, likelihood components, constraints, etc. Model Selection – parsimony vs. realism, likelihood profiles, residuals Base run – all model parameters, time series, selectivities, S-R, etc. Reference Points Harvest Projections & Decision Tables Regional Management Considerations Research Needs Appendices – parameter and data files Pacific Fishery Management Council

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Stock Assessment Terms of Reference

Introduction STAR Goals and Objectives Shared Responsibilities NMFS Responsibilities STAT Responsibilities GMT Responsibilities GAP Responsibilities SSC Responsibilities Council Staff Responsibilities Stock Assessment Priorities Terms of Reference for STAR Panels and Their Meetings Suggested Template for STAR Panel Report Terms of Reference for Groundfish STAT Teams Terms of Reference for Stock Assessment Updates Appendix A: 2009-2010 Stock Assessment Review Calendar Appendix B: Outline for Groundfish Stock Assessment Documents Appendix C: Template for Executive Summary Prepared by STAT Teams Appendix D: Example of a Complete Stock Assessment Executive Summary Pacific Fishery Management Council

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Full (Benchmark) Stock Assessments

Pacific Fishery Management Council

  • Full stock assessments are reviewed at a STock

Assessment Review (STAR) panel

  • STAR panels last a week, during which time two

assessments are reviewed

  • STAR panels have four scientific reviewers

‐

SSC member chairs meeting

‐

At least one (usually two) CIE

‐

One person with assessment experience gained on the US west coast

  • Panels include representatives of the groundfish

management (=plan) team and the advisory panel

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  • Summary of the STAR Panel meeting:

– Name and affiliation of panel members – List of analyses requested, rationale, and response – Description of base model and uncertainty

  • Comments on the technical merits or deficiencies
  • Explanation of areas of disagreement among Panel

members and between STAR and STAT

  • Unresolved problems and major uncertainties
  • Issues raised by the GMT and/or GAP representatives
  • Research priorities

Contents of Review Panel Report

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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SLIDE 9

Decision Tables to Express Uncertainty

Canary rockfish (Sebastes pinniger)

Pacific Fishery Management Council

A creative role for the STAR panel

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Updated Stock Assessments

  • To qualify as an update a model must first be reviewed

and certified by a full STAR panel.

  • Only addition of newly acquired data (e.g., recent

landings, survey results, compositions, etc.) is allowed

  • All aspects of model structure must remain

unchanged (turn the crank)

  • Meeting is conducted by the SSC groundfish

subcommittee and usually takes about 2‐3 hours

  • If a problem arises the assessment is referred to the

“mop‐up” panel as a full assessment

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0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Spawning Output as a % of Virgin Spawning Allowable Biological Catch / Optimum Yield 40-10 strategy ABC ABC is based on Fmsy or its proxy OY is reduced if spawning potential is below 40% of K

control rule for translating stock size into optimum yield

SFA Biomass‐Based Control Rule (FMP Amendment 11)

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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The Rockfish Problem

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Year Relative Depletion

Canary Bocaccio Cowcod POP Darkblotched Widow Yelloweye

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Year Metric Tons Catch ABC

Canary rockfish

Stock assessments

Harvests Based on Science

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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25 50 75 100 10 20 30 40 50 60 Years Probability of rebuilding

F=0 50% 70%

rebuilding with no fishing

1 generation

Tmax Tmin

Possible range

  • f harvest

Pacific Fishery Management Council

Rebuilding Depends on Rate of Fishing

bocaccio Sebastes paucispinis

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What About Data‐Poor Stocks

  • Approximately 80 species in groundfish FMP and only some

30 have been fully assessed with dynamic models

  • Swept area biomass with FMSY = M approximation for a

handful of rockfishes

– a 25% precautionary reduction in ABC is applied

  • Many others have ABC set based on Restrepo et al.

(historical landings)

– a 50% precautionary reduction in ABC is applied

  • Species are aggregated into assemblages (e.g., slope rockfish

north of lat. 40°10’ N)

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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  • Over 60 salmon stocks designated in the FMP with

conservation objectives

  • Some stocks managed to meet ESA recovery goals and

some for OY under Magnuson Act

  • PFMC management focuses on sustainable fisheries while

meeting NMFS imposed recovery goals

Pacific Fishery Management Council

Salmon Management

Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha Courtesy Ray Troll

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OY (Escapement Goal) Typically Based on Spawner‐Recruit Analysis

Pacific Fishery Management Council A happy fisherman

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Pacific Fishery Management Council

Salmon “Assessment”

  • Conducted intensively by Salmon Technical Team

(STT) during March & April meetings

  • Compile preceding year’s data on catch and

escapement

  • Abundance of “jacks” (age‐2 males) used to

predict coming run through the use of sibling regressions

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Pacific Fishery Management Council

Sibling Regression

Prediction can be for the entire run

  • r for the same cohort (brood year)
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Pacific Fishery Management Council

Weak‐Stock Management

  • Multiple stock escapement and exploitation rate

goals are evaluated in the Chinook Fishery Regulation Analysis Model (FRAM)

  • Time‐area impacts are modeled based on the
  • cean distribution and abundance of stocks as

determined from coded wire tag returns

  • Different season structures evaluated until all

escapement & exploitation rates goals are met

  • Happens quickly at March and April meetings
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Salmon Peer Review

  • Changes to methodology are reviewed and

certified by the SSC salmon subcommittee in the Fall with Council approval in November

  • Each year stock‐specific data from regional

stakeholders are assembled, examined, and certified by the STT

  • Run forecasts are presented to the SSC for review

in March

  • Occasional independent peer review on a specific

issue (CIE review of KOHM in 2006)

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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2008 Pacific sardine assessment “update”

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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Pacific Sardine Harvest Control Rule

HGt+1 = (Biomasst – Escapemin) × μSST × US portion 66,932 = (662,886 – 150,000) × 0.15 × 87%

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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Jacobson, L. D., and A. D. MacCall. 1995. Stock-recruitment models for Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax). Can. J. Fish. Aquat. Sci. 52:566-577.

Control Rule is Environmentally Explicit

Pacific Fishery Management Council

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SLIDE 25

Pacific Fishery Management Council