Series H1 FY20 Results & Update 1. Market update 241 ORiordan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Series H1 FY20 Results & Update 1. Market update 241 ORiordan - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
FSREC Fund Series H1 FY20 Results & Update 1. Market update 241 ORiordan Street, Mascot Commercial property yields Macro factors underpinning commercial real estate remain supportive Commercial property yields by sector, compared to 10
Market update
1.
241 O’Riordan Street, Mascot
Commercial property yields
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Source: Bloomberg, JLL Research, FSREC (31 December 2019) Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Spread of average commercial property yield to 10 year government bond Commercial property yields by sector, compared to 10 year government bond
Macro factors underpinning commercial real estate remain supportive
(0.5%) 0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19
- 0.5%
0.5% 1.5% 2.5% 3.5% 4.5% 5.5% 6.5% 7.5% 8.5% Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Prime Office Prime Industrial National Retail 10 year Bond
Significant rental differential between Sydney CBD and South Sydney supportive for continued growth
Net effective rent ($/sqm): Sydney CBD vs South Sydney
Sydney office market
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Source: JLL (31 December 2019) Notes: South Sydney data used as an illustration for the Mascot office market Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
$150 $250 $350 $450 $550 $650 $750 $850 Sydney CBD South Sydney 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Sydney CBD South Sydney
Prime office yields: Sydney CBD vs South Sydney
Vacancy by shopping centre type
Retail sector
0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% Q2 2009 Q2 2010 Q2 2011 Q2 2012 Q2 2013 Q2 2014 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2017 Q2 2018 Q2 2019
Neighbourhood Mid-sized centres Large centres
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Source: JLL, FSREC (31 December 2019) Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Yields for neighbourhood retail remain attractive Neighbourhood vacancy reducing illustrating strong non-discretionary retail performance
Retail yields by sub-sector
4.50% 5.00% 5.50% 6.00% 6.50% 7.00% 7.50% 8.00% Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Neighbourhood Subregional CBD
Non-discretionary retail categories continuing to provide steady sales growth
Retail sales growth
Annualised sales growth by category
Source: ABS – Annualised returns to 30 November 2019 Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Non-discretionary retail FOOD CATERING 1 year growth: 2.8% SERVICES/OTHER 1 year growth: 3.4% Discretionary retail DEPARTMENT STORES 1 year growth: 0.7% CLOTHING 1 year growth: 2.9% HOUSEHOLD GOODS 1 year growth: -0.1% FRESH FOOD 1 year growth: 4.2%
H1 FY20 Fund Performance
2.
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Fund valuations
PORTFOLIO VALUATIONS FUND I FUND II FUND III FUND IV 1 June 2019 valuation $256,050,000 $179,000,000 $238,500,000 $119,619,980 December 2019 valuation $260,250,000 $182,150,000 $239,750,000 $119,500,000 Portfolio valuation change 1.6% 1.8% 0.5%
- 0.1%
December 2019 cap rate 2 6.1% 6.1% 6.3% 5.9%
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Source: FSREC Notes: All figures based on preliminary unaudited estimates for 31 December 2019. Audited financials will be released in mid March 2020. (1) Historical cost of Keilor Central, being the asset purchase price of $113,000,000 plus transaction costs, less depreciation. (2) Average capitalisation rate of the portfolio Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Key Fund metrics
Portfolio Metrics FUND I FUND II FUND III FUND IV
- No. of assets
5 5 2 1
Geographic Diversification Sector Diversification
Fund Metrics
Net Tangible Assets (NTA)
$1.63 $1.63 $1.53 $1.51
Gearing ratio
36% 38% 32% 38%
Distribution yield on capital (H1 FY20)
4.6% 5.3% 4.8% 4.0%
Distribution yield on NTA (H1 FY20)
4.5% 5.3% 5.0% 4.2%
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Source: FSREC Notes: All figures based on preliminary unaudited estimates for 31 December 2019. Audited financials will be released in mid March 2020. Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
87% 13%
Retail Office
100 %
100% 37% 63%
100 %
100% 100%
QLD NSW VIC SA
100% 11% 47% 72% 13% 15% 42%
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Portfolio Performance
3.
FSREC Fund Series—H1 FY20 Highlights
11 portfolio turnover growth portfolio annual turnover1
Source: FSREC Notes: All figures calculated for the six months ending 31 December 2019, weighted by income. Retail portfolio statistics calculated on FSREC portfolio of 12 shopping centres. All turnover figures based on unaudited sales turnover for the 12 months to 31 December 2019.
1 Like for like tenants only
Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Retail portfolio only
$789m 4.4%
retail portfolio weighting to majors
33% 97% 5.3% 2.5%
majors turnover growth
58%
majors in turnover rent weighting to non- discretionary annual specialty sales growth
10.2%
specialty occupancy cost
$9,301/sqm
specialty productivity
$859/sqm
average specialty gross rent
Total portfolio
leasing deals completed
34 75%
tenant retention on lease expiry
98%
- ccupancy
6.4%
average leasing spread
64% 20% 13% 3% NSW VIC QLD SA
Geographic Diversification
total portfolio turnover1 portfolio turnover growth
Fund I — key metrics
Tenant lease expiries by year (% portfolio) Top tenants
Source: FSREC Note: All stats calculated as at 31 December 2019 by unaudited income
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
12
shopping centre assets
5
tenants
130
- ccupancy
98%
weighted average lease expiry
4.7 yrs
leasing deals completed (HY20)
8
majors turnover growth
6.9%
Coles 19% Study Group 15% Fitness First 6% Woolworths 4% Aldi 4%
Noosa Village
Lake Innes Village
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Fund II — key metrics
Tenant lease expiries by year (% portfolio) Top tenants
Source: FSREC Note: All stats calculated as at 31 December 2019 by unaudited income
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
Woolworths 20% Coles 10% Fitness First 6% TK Maxx 5% FoodWorks 4% shopping centre assets
5
tenants
103
- ccupancy
97%
weighted average lease expiry
5.5 yrs
leasing deals completed (HY20)
11
majors turnover growth
5.3%
Hilton Plaza
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Birkdale Fair
Fund III — key metrics
Tenant lease expiries by year (% portfolio) Top tenants
Source: FSREC Note: All stats calculated as at 31 December 2019 by unaudited income
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
NSW Government 24% Abbvie 10% Woolworths 7% Landis+Gyr 6% Coles 6% assets
2
tenants
66
- ccupancy
99%
weighted average lease expiry
3.7 yrs
leasing deals completed (HY20)
7
majors turnover growth
4.8%
Toormina Gardens
Fund IV — key metrics
Tenant lease expiries by year (% portfolio) Top tenants
▪ [Photo to come]
Source: FSREC Note: All stats calculated as at 31 December 2019 by unaudited income
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0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024+
Coles 15% Kmart 15% Aldi 6% shopping centre asset
1
tenants
70
- ccupancy
99%
weighted average lease expiry
4.3 yrs
leasing deals completed (HY20)
8
majors turnover growth
2.5%
Keilor Central
Keilor Central
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Investor relations
For further information
Telephone 1300 454 801 Email info@fsrec.com.au
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Appendix
5.
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200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 0–4 5–9 10–14 15–19 20–24 25–29 30–34 35–39 40–44 45–49 50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80–84 85–89 90–94 95+ Number of People Age cohort (years)
Largest age cohort in Australia reaching peak spending within the next 10 years
Retail sector: Australian demographics to drive retail sales growth
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Source: ABS, FSREC (as at December 2019) Source: ABS, JLL Research (2019)
Peak consumption 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100
Age (years) Growth in number of people at each age (per year)
Peak consumption
Number of people, by age cohort Annual population growth over next 10 years, for each aging year
Retail sector: Retail supply per capita
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Source: JLL Research (February 2020), Deloitte Access Economics
Sqm of new retail space per additional person 1995–1999 2000–2004 2005–2009 2010–2014 2015–2019 2020–2023
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00
Lower forecast retail supply per capita supportive of sales productivity over long-term
Low exposure to discretionary specialty retail at 3.3% of total retail portfolio
Diversification by retail categories
FSREC retail portfolio—diversification by sales category
Diversification by retail group
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28% 5% 29% 8% 30% Supermarkets DDS National Franchise Independent
Source: FSREC Notes: All figures calculated by income as at 31 December 2019 and weighted by income. Retail portfolio statistics calculated on portfolio of 12 shopping centres. Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
28.0% 18.2% 10.8% 10.6% 8.6% 8.5% 7.5% 4.5% 2.2% 1.1% Jewellery, Homewares Apparel Supermarkets
Non-discretionary retail 85%
Retail services General retail Food catering Food retail Other Mini-majors DDS Discretionary specialty Supermarkets Kmart JB Hifi, TK Maxx, The Reject Shop Beauty, Medical, Banks, Travel Pharmacy, Discount Variety, Florist Takeaway Food, Cafes Butcher, Baker, Grocer, Liquor Communications, Newsagent, ATMs Coles, Woolworths, Aldi
15% 3.3%
Specialty sales growth by portfolio weighting
FSREC retail portfolio—specialty performance
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Source: FSREC Notes: All figures calculated as at 31 December 2019 (by income) for retail portfolio of 12 shopping centres. All turnover figures based on unaudited sales turnover for the 12 months to 31 December 2019.
1General retail includes pharmacy, giftware, cosmetics, discount variety & florists
Specialty Sales Growth
0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
- 10%
- 8%
- 6%
- 4%
- 2%
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
Retail Services Food Catering Communications Food Retail General Retail Homewares Jewellery Apparel Portfolio weighting (% income)
Retail sector – recent comparable sales
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Corburg North Village VIC | $47m, 4.6% | Apr 2019 Strathalbyn, SA| $19m, 5.7% | Nov 2019 Marketplace Warner QLD| $78m, 5.8% | Dec 2019 Willowdale NSW| $35m, 5.6% | July 2019
Source: FSREC Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Retail sector – recent comparable sales
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Rockdale Plaza NSW | $142m, 6.0% | Apr 2019 Campbellfield Plaza VIC| $74m, 5.8% | Dec 2018 St Mary’s Village NSW| $68m, 5.8% | Dec 2019 Norton Plaza NSW| $153m, 5.5% | Sep 2019
Source: FSREC Disclaimer: historical performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Oxford Village, Sydney (Fund I)
FSREC Portfolio NSW
ASSET TYPE Convenience retail and office VALUATION $99.0 million TOTAL MAT n/a LOCATION CBD GLA 12,042 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$1,162/sqm TENANTS (Retail) Aldi, JB Hifi, Chemist Warehouse, 30 specs (Office) Fitness First, Study Group OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 9.1% WALE 2.00 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $7,005/sqm STRATEGY Lease-up final vacancy and progress additional value add opportunities
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Marketfair Campbelltown, Sydney (Fund II)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $53.5 million TOTAL MAT $53.0 million LOCATION Metro GLA 9,119 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$1,163/sqm TENANTS Woolworths, 27 specs OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 6.8% WALE 3.70 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $11,980/sqm STRATEGY Maintain high occupancy through active management, continue to progress longer-term development masterplan and land rezoning
Newtown Central, Sydney (Fund II)
ASSET TYPE Convenience retail VALUATION $31.3 million TOTAL MAT $13.8 million LOCATION CBD GLA 3,355sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$712/sqm TENANTS Foodworks, Fitness First, 13 specs OCCUPANCY 97% SPEC OCC COST 7.2% WALE 0.80 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $14,620/sqm STRATEGY Following supermarket and gym refurbishment, lease-up final vacancy
Source: FSREC. All figures as at 31 December 2019
Windsor Riverview, Sydney (Fund I)
FSREC Portfolio NSW (continued)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $55.8 million TOTAL MAT $68.3 million LOCATION Metro GLA 7,911 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$746/sqm TENANTS Coles, 33 specs OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 13.1% WALE 6.96 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $5,711/sqm STRATEGY Maintain high occupancy through active management, reduce exposure to apparel to improve productivity
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Toormina Gardens, Coffs Harbour (Fund III)
ASSET TYPE Convenience-based subregional VALUATION $87.5 million TOTAL MAT $145.7 million LOCATION Regional GLA 20,890 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$706/sqm TENANTS Woolworths, Coles, Kmart, 51 specs OCCUPANCY 98% SPEC OCC COST 7.9% WALE 2.90 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $10,832/sqm STRATEGY Execute specialty leasing strategy, progress development application for car park improvements and padsite
Lake Innes, Port Macquarie (Fund I)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $33.0 million TOTAL MAT $64.3 million LOCATION Regional GLA 4,671sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$787/sqm TENANTS Coles, 12 specs OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 10.5% WALE 7.12 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $8,322/sqm STRATEGY Introduce additional food catering following completion of placemaking works. Cater tenant mix to leverage off adjacent University growth
Source: FSREC. All figures as at 31 December 2019
FSREC Portfolio NSW (continued)
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241 O'Riordan Street, Mascot, Sydney (Fund III)
ASSET TYPE Office VALUATION $152.3 million
- AV. NET RENT
$430/sqm LOCATION Suburban GLA 19,042 sqm TENANTS Property NSW, AbbVie, Coates, Newslink, Landis & Gyr OCCUPANCY 99% WALE 3.5 years STRATEGY Capitalise on strong office market to drive leasing spreads through early renewals and proactive leasing
Source: FSREC. All figures as at 30 June 2019
Keilor Central, Melbourne (Fund IV)
FSREC Portfolio VIC and SA
ASSET TYPE Convenience-based subregional VALUATION $119.5 million TOTAL MAT $142.9 million LOCATION Metro GLA 19,401 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$1,002/sqm TENANTS Coles, Aldi, Kmart, 65 specs OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 13.3% WALE 3.16 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $9,117/sqm STRATEGY Execute specialty leasing strategy, progress development masterplan
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Lynbrook Village, Melbourne (Fund I)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $39.0 million TOTAL MAT $43.1 million LOCATION Metro GLA 7,620 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$635/sqm TENANTS Coles, 31 specs OCCUPANCY 97% SPEC OCC COST 12.9% WALE 4.15 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $6,154/sqm STRATEGY Lease-up vacancies through active management
Hilton Plaza, Adelaide (Fund II)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $20.4 million TOTAL MAT $42.0 million LOCATION Metro GLA 4,452sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$837/sqm TENANTS Woolworths, 13 specs OCCUPANCY 95% SPEC OCC COST 11.3% WALE 0.67 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $7,044/sqm STRATEGY Drive supermarket performance following refurbishment, lease office vacancy
Source: FSREC. All figures as at 31 December 2019
Noosa Village, Noosa (Fund I)
FSREC Portfolio QLD
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $33.5 million TOTAL MAT $68.7 million LOCATION Metro GLA 4,692 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$930/sqm TENANTS Woolworths, 21 specs OCCUPANCY 97% SPEC OCC COST 6.7% WALE 1.12 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $16,156/sqm STRATEGY Progress Woolworths expansion following development approval and execute specialty leasing strategy
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Birkdale Fair, Brisbane (Fund II)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $30.5 million TOTAL MAT $68.2 million LOCATION Metro GLA 5,413 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$796/sqm TENANTS Woolworths, 17 specs OCCUPANCY 99% SPEC OCC COST 9.0% WALE 8.37 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $8,909/sqm STRATEGY Progress development application for padsite
Northpoint Shopping Centre, Toowoomba (Fund II)
ASSET TYPE Neighbourhood retail VALUATION $46.5 million TOTAL MAT $58.9 million LOCATION Regional GLA 6,854 sqm
- AV. SPEC GROSS RENT
$705/sqm TENANTS Coles, 26 specs OCCUPANCY 96% SPEC OCC COST 8.7% WALE 1.89 years SPEC PRODUCTIVITY $8,451/sqm STRATEGY Lease-up vacancies through active management
Source: FSREC. All figures as at 31 December 2019
This presentation has been prepared by Fort Street Real Estate Capital Pty Limited (ACN 164 101 731) (FSREC) a corporate authorised representative (CAR
- No. 440307) of Walsh & Company Asset Management Pty Limited (ACN 159 902 708, AFSL 450 257) (Walsh AM) as investment manager for Fort Street
Real Estate Capital Fund I (ARSN 163 688 346) (Fund I) , Fort Street Real Estate Capital Fund II (ARSN 169 190 498) (Fund II), Fort Street Real Estate Capital Fund III (ARSN 605 335 957) (Fund III) and Fort Street Real Estate Capital Fund IV (ARSN 623 196 298) (Fund IV) (Funds or FSREC Funds). Walsh AM is a wholly owned subsidiary of Evans Dixon Limited (ACN 609 913 457) (ED1) and ED1 has a majority economic interest in FSREC. This presentation may contain general advice. Any general advice provided has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on the advice, you should consider the appropriateness of the advice with regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs. Past performance of the FSREC Funds is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of the FSREC Funds. This presentation may contain statements, opinions, projections, forecasts and other material (forward-looking statements), based on various
- assumptions. Those assumptions may or may not provide to be correct. The Investment Manager and its advisers (including all of their respective
directors, consultants and/or employees, related bodies corporate and the directors, shareholders, managers, employees or agents of them) (Parties) do not make any representation as to the accuracy or likelihood of fulfilment of the forward-looking statements or any of the assumptions upon which they are based. Actual results, performance or achievements may vary materially from any projections and forward-looking statements and the assumptions
- n which those statements are based. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements and the Parties assume no
- bligation to update that information.
The Parties give no warranty, representation or guarantee as to the accuracy or completeness or reliability of the information contained in this
- presentation. The Parties do not accept, except to the extent permitted by law, responsibility for any loss, claim, damages, costs or expenses arising out
- f, or in connection with, the information contained in this presentation. Any recipient of this presentation should independently satisfy themselves as to
the accuracy of all information contained in this presentation.
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