Seismic Hazard in the United States Open Lecture Seminar JNES/IAEA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Seismic Hazard in the United States Open Lecture Seminar JNES/IAEA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Seismic Hazard in the United States Open Lecture Seminar JNES/IAEA Kashiwazaki Seismic Symposium Niigata Institute of Technology Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E. November 2010 1 Nuclear Renaissance 2 Recent Earthquakes & Existing US plants

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Seismic Hazard in the United States

Open Lecture Seminar JNES/IAEA Kashiwazaki Seismic Symposium Niigata Institute of Technology

  • Dr. Annie Kammerer, P.E.

November 2010

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Nuclear Renaissance

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Recent Earthquakes & Existing US plants

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Plants Earthquakes

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Fault Map of California

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Diablo Canyon Nuclear Plant San Luis Obispo California

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Fault Map of California

6 Santa Barbara

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  • Dr. Hardebeck USGS
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Plate Tectonics

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USGS Global Tectonics Map

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Tectonic Map of Japan

Faults and earthquakes 1900-2007

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USGS Global Tectonic Map

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Global Seismicity

NASA DATM

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US National Seismic Hazard Map

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WHY?

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Super continent Gondwana and Pangea just before the formation of the Atlantic Ocean

Atlantic Geoscience Society

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Images Courtesy of Ron Blakey, Northern Arizona University compiled for this presentation by Greg Willis of the Northern Virginia Community College 16

Video: Formation of the US

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Separation of the Super Continents

Rifting that formed Atlantic Ocean

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Surface rift zones in the U. S. (in purple)

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Surface rift zones in the U. S. (in purple)

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Bouguer gravity map of United States

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Bouguer gravity map of United States

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General Tectonic Zones

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Plate Boundary Mountain Building Failed Rifts Meteor Impact

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National Seismic Hazard Map

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Mountain Building Failed Rifts Meteor Impact Plate Boundary

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North American Glaciations

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10,000 years ago 18,000 years ago

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Subduction of the Farallon Plate

Figures by NASA and Levander et al (1999)

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Subduction of the Farallon Plate

Figures by University of Munich and Wannamaker et al.

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Earthquakes in New Madrid

United States Geological Survey

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Intensity Map of New Madrid Earthquake 1811

National Earthquake Information Center

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Actual Map of Observations USGS Prediction

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Quarternary Fault and Fold Database

United States Geological Survey

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Damaging Earthquakes 1750 to 1996

United States Geological Earthquakes

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But, we have to build things so…

WHAT DO WE DO?

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Basic steps in seismic hazard…

  • Characterize all possible earthquake

sources that may cause shaking at your location

  • Determine the level of shaking those

sources can cause at your location

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To characterize the sources and develop a regional source model, you need to synthesize many kinds of data

Source model

Seismicity Geology Tectonics Magnetics Gravity Paleo- seismic GPS Crustal stress Crustal geophysics

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Often data doesn’t agree or the picture is incomplete, so a logic tree is used to show alternative models

Source Characterization model Seismicity Geology Tectonics Magnetics Gravity Paleo- seismic GPS

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Branch 3 Branch 2 Branch 1

Source Branch Option 1 Branch

  • ption 1

Branch

  • ption 2

Branch Option 2 Branch

  • ption n
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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS (geodetics)
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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Data types

  • Recorded & historic

seismicity

  • Geology
  • Tectonics
  • Magnetics
  • Gravity
  • GPS trace
  • Crustal Stresses
  • Surface geophysics
  • Paleoseismic

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There are two general types of sources

  • Fault sources
  • Area sources

– Also called distributed seismicity or background sources – Session on distributed seismicity at the workshop

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Area Source Site

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Characterization of Area Sources

Figure from Hardebeck (USGS)

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Magnitude recurrence relationships

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3 4 5 6 7 8

Annual Rate of Earthquakes Earthquake Magnitude

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So we now know about the earthquake sources, but…

WHAT DOES IT MEAN TO ME?

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Ground motion prediction equations

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Peak Ground Acceleration (g)

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Uncertainty

  • Aleatory variability

– Randomness inherent in nature

  • Epistemic uncertainty

– Model uncertainty resulting from incomplete data, not fully understanding the processes involved, or from using a simplified model

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New Japanese code for nuclear plant accounts for uncertainty and beyond design basis ground motions

  • Assesses plants for earthquake motions

beyond what the extreme events used for design and review

  • Very important for increased safety
  • Acknowledges that an exceedance can
  • ccur (though highly unlikely)

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We have the sources, we have ground motion prediction equations…

WHAT NOW?

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Deterministic seismic hazard assessment

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  • “Worst case” scenario analysis based on

known faults

  • Need both fault information

(seismic source characterization)

  • …and ground motion prediction equations
  • Challenging to determine the worst case
  • Uncertainty in fault addressed through

conservative assumptions

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Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment

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Find effects of all possible earthquakes, multiply each by the likelihood it will actually happen, combine the events

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Once we have the ground motion levels, we can design the plants

  • Design of the plants includes a lot of

“seismic margin”

  • This means that the structures, systems,

and components can survive loads much high then the design shaking levels

  • This is why the KKNPP performed well,

even given very high shaking levels

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Also use defense-in-depth approach

  • Redundancy in systems
  • Design well, but plan actions to be

taken in unlikely situations

  • Multiple layers of defense and

containment to fully contain nuclear materials in worse cases

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US actions in response

  • The 2007 earthquake

had lessons for the NRC as well

  • Currently implementing

“ShakeCAST” system to improve preparedness, situational awareness, and our ability to get information to the public

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Questions?