[PPT] - Segmentation: Promoting 2020 Census self-response Laura Kail, PSB PowerPoint Presentation

SLIDE 1

Mindsets and Segmentation:

Promoting 2020 Census self-response

Laura Kail, PSB

July 12, 2019

Gina Walejko, U.S. Census Bureau Brian Kriz, PSB Robert Kulzick, PSB Shawnna Mullenax, PSB Hubert Shang, PSB

2020 CBAMS PUMS DRB#: CBDRB-FY18-422 2020 ICC Modeled Scores DRB#: CBDRB-FY18-311 The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the U.S. Census Bureau.

SLIDE 2

Introduction

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Segmentation is frequently used to differentiate potential buyers of products
r services
Profiles of customers are often created to help with ad campaigns and

creative message development

In this case, every person in the United States is the customer, and the

product is the 2020 Census

Mindsets and segmentation will help communication experts tailor

advertisements and messaging strategies to have the greatest possible impact

SLIDE 3

Goals

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Cluster individuals into cohesive

groups (i.e. mindsets) with similar attitudes toward and knowledge about the 2020 Census

Have mindset groupings that

are distinct from each other

Cluster tracts into cohesive

groups (i.e. segments) with similar self-response and demographics

Have tract segments that are

distinct from each other MINDSETS TRACT SEGMENTS MINDSETS TRACT SEGMENTS

SLIDE 4

Input Data Sources

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MINDSETS TRACT SEGMENTS

Responses to 50+ non-

demographic questions from the 2020 CBAMS

Modeled scores predicting
verall self-response rates and

the proportion of self-response that will be online

33 tract-level demographic

characteristics from Census Bureau sources (2010 Census and 2016 ACS)

SLIDE 5

Mindsets and Segmentation Process

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1. Select inputs
2. Reduce inputs to a smaller number of factors using Principal Component

Analysis (PCA)

3. Group individuals/tracts into 14 candidate solutions
4. Narrow candidates to 3 solutions each
5. Communication experts select a final mindset and final segment solution
6. Name the mindsets/segments and develop descriptive profiles of each
7. Use the mindsets/segments to inform the communication campaign

SLIDE 6

Selection Criteria

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MINDSETS TRACT SEGMENTS

Differentiation on stated intent to

participate in the 2020 Census

Balanced distribution of mindset

sizes

Meaningful demographic

characteristics and attitudes toward and knowledge about the census

Differentiation on the predicted self-

response rates

Balanced distribution of segment

sizes

Meaningful demographic

characteristics, mindsets, and media consumption habits

SLIDE 7

Mindset Descriptions

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19% of U.S. Population

Eager Engagers

Intent to Respond 82%

Highest intent to respond.
Highest levels of civic engagement.
Highest knowledge about the census.

32% of U.S. Population

Fence Sitters

Intent to Respond 71%

Above-average intent to respond.
Highest percentage White.
Highest percentage male.

15% of U.S. Population

Confidentiality Minded

63% Intent to Respond

Most concerned answers will be used

against them.

Highest percentage foreign-born.
Slightly below average intent to

respond.

14% of U.S. Population

Wary Skeptics

Intent to Respond 59%

Lowest trust in government.
Highest apathy about the census.
High percentage of Black/African-

Americans.

10% of U.S. Population Disconnected Doubters

Intent to Respond 51%

Lowest intent to respond.
Lowest frequency of internet use.
Highest percentage of people ages

65 years and older.

Intent to Respond 60%

9% of U.S. Population

Head Nodders

Most likely to respond “Yes” to all

knowledge questions.

Above-average percentage of

foreign-born people.

Highest percentage of people ages

18 to 34.

Note: U.S. population percentages do not add to 100% due to rounding error.

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Mindset Profiles

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SLIDE 9

Tract Segment Descriptions

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Note: U.S. population percentages do not add up to 100% due to tracts with no ACS mailout and, therefore, no tract segment assigned.

Low predicted rate of response, with the lowest

percentage of that response coming online.

Found in rural parts of the southeastern United

States, as well as concentrations in urban areas.

Low % college educated, low median household

incomes, below-average levels of internet access, and majority non-Hispanic African American.

Rural Delta and Urban Enclaves 43% 7%

Of the U.S. Population Predicted Self-Response

Low predicted rate of response, with a below-

average percentage of that response coming

nline.
Found in California’s Central Valley and parts of

New Mexico, Texas, Florida, as well as concentrations in urban areas.

High % foreign-born, low % college educated, and

majority Hispanic.

14% 45% Multicultural Mosaic

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

Below-average predicted rate of response, with

below-average internet response.

Found in rural areas predominantly in the western

United States, Appalachia, northern Maine, and Michigan’s Upper Peninsula.

High % owner-occupied housing and below-

average levels of internet access.

5% 49% Sparse Spaces

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

Below-average predicted rate of response, with a

high percentage of that response coming online.

Found in communities around college campuses or

military bases.

A majority 18-24, high % college educated, and

high % renter-occupied housing.

2% 56% Student and Military Communities

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

Slightly below-average predicted rate of response,

with a high percentage of that response coming

nline.
Found in densely populated metro centers.
High % college educated, above-average % foreign-

born, high % 25-44 compared to the nation as a whole, and high median household incomes.

59% 9% Downtown Dynamic

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

Slightly below-average predicted rate of response,

with a below-average percentage of that response coming online.

Found in rural areas predominantly in the eastern

United States, surrounding small towns and

utside the suburbs of major cities.
High % owner-occupied housing, low % college

educated, and below-average median household incomes.

60% 16% Country Roads

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

High predicted rate of response, with an average

percentage of that response coming online.

Found in small towns and less densely populated

areas surrounding urban centers.

Low diversity and a higher % 65 or older than the

national average.

67% 21% Main Street Middle

Predicted Self-Response Of the U.S. Population

High predicted rate of response, with a high

percentage of that response coming online.

Found in suburban neighborhoods of single-family

homes.

High % college educated, high % married, and high

median household incomes.

71% Responsive Suburbia

Predicted Self-Response

24%

Of the U.S. Population

SLIDE 10

National View of Tract Segmentation

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Responsive Suburbia Main Street Middle Country Roads Downtown Dynamic Student and Military Communities Sparse Spaces Multicultural Mosaic Rural Delta and Urban Enclaves No ACS Mailout

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Washington, D.C. View of Tract Segmentation

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Main Street Middle Student and Military Communities Rural Delta and Urban Enclaves Responsive Suburbia Country Roads Downtown Dynamic Sparse Spaces Multicultural Mosaic No ACS Mailout

SLIDE 12

Mindset Composition of Tract Segments

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Note: Mindset percentages within some segments do not add up to 100% due to rounding.

Rural Delta and Urban Enclaves 17% 22% 11% 22% 13% 16%