Security in a Time of COVID Focus on Irrigation, Financial Services - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Big Bets for Kenyan Food Security in a Time of COVID Focus on Irrigation, Financial Services & Farmer Engagement Leesa Shrader AgriFin Programs Director 25 June 2020 Nairobi, Kenya BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY Agenda Welcome
Leesa Shrader AgriFin Programs Director 25 June 2020 Nairobi, Kenya
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
They increase levels of irrigation They are typically better than current irrigation options Better yields Opportunity to plant in
Greater resilience Can grow higher value crops Lower total lifetime cost of alternatives Can be ‘smart’, so controlled and monitored remotely (to check for over-usage of water) More environmentally friendly than diesel pumps Control is in the hands
(he makes the purchase decision)
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farmer for purchase of a pump
financial institutions to partner
campaign through government and non-government channels Proposed policy interventions
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Source: Dalberg analysis
Number of households with a solar water pumps in Kenya under each policy intervention (no of HHs) 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 2028 2026 2022 2020 2024 2030
Policy intervention 2 - Credit financing Total addressable market - SWPs Policy intervention 3 - Market awareness Policy intervention 1 - Subsidies Policy intervention 4 - Financing access to water Base case (No interventions)
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Those that address the affordability constraint are likely to have the greatest impact The total addressable market will increase over time as income levels increase
Source: Dalberg analysis
Cumulative uptake of SWPs under combined policy interventions (no. of HHs) 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2030 2028 2026 2024 2022 2020
Policy intervention 2 and 4 combined Credit + water access Policy intervention 1 and 2 combined Subsidies + credit Policy intervention 1 and 4 combined Subsidies + water access Total addressable market - SWPs Policy intervention 1, 2, 4 combined Subsidies + credit + water access Policy intervention 1, 2, 3, 4 combined Subsidies + credit + awareness + water access
Under the combined policy interventions, around 1.1 Million additional hectares will be irrigated by 2030 compared to 165k currently irrigated (3% of Kenya’s arable land)
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Aggregated impact in terms of yield per county under combined policy interventions 1,2,3,4 (MT)
Source: Dalberg analysis
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Aggregated yield impact after improved access to water (Thousand MT) Aggregated yield impact after improved access to credit (Thousand MT)
Source: Dalberg analysis, FAO Stat, World Bank development indicators.
Projected annual food production due to combined policy interventions (Million MT) Increase of the agricultural part of GDP under combined policy interventions (%) 23 42 Food production (Million MT) +78%
Current food production Projected food production in 2030
Food production will increase 78%, supporting the aim of a 50% of reduction in the number of food insecure Kenyans 2020 2030 26% Agriculture as % of GDP 74% 35% Agriculture as % of GDP 65% This will represent a 35% increase in the proportion
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Source: Dalberg analysis, FAO (2015), The economic lives of small-holder farmers. Assumption of 0.7 Ha average land in a farm under irrigation
Increase in small-holder farmers income (USD) Increase of land irrigated under combined policy interventions (Thousands of Ha) The income increase will exceed the objective of 34% increase of SHF income The land irrigated will exceed the projected land irrigated in the National Water Master Plan 7,000 2,527 3,800 673 Average income per SHF Total income per SHF after purchase of SWP Irrigation yield increase Increase of income due to the switch to higher value crop 165 803 968
Projected land irrigated National Water Master Plan Current land irrigated
1,265 1,100 165
Projected land irrigated due to SWPs Current land irrigated
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BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
Using Zoom chat function
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY
BIG BETS FOR KENYAN FOOD SECURITY