security: hype or reality? Dr. Louise van Schaik Hague Roundtable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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security: hype or reality? Dr. Louise van Schaik Hague Roundtable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate change, migration & security: hype or reality? Dr. Louise van Schaik Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security, 21 September, IHE, Delft Implications for Europe https://freedomhouse.or g/report/freedom-world-


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Climate change, migration & security: hype or reality?

  • Dr. Louise van Schaik

Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security, 21 September, IHE, Delft

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Implications for Europe

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  • https://freedomhouse.or

g/report/freedom-world- 2016/overview-essay- anxious-dictators- wavering-democracies

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Unpacking contested relationships

  • Climate – migration
  • Migration – security
  • Climate – conflict (climate as threat multiplier)
  • The potential contribution of adaptation as no

regret option, i.e. with co-benefits for migration and security policy objectives (and vice versa)

  • New research frontiers
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Migration: push & pull factors

  • Push (reasons to leave): Social, Economic &

Political factors

  • Pull (attraction of new destination)
  • Climate change mostly related to ec. factors,

jeopardises livelihoods based on water & food, but also flood risk (& salinisation of groundwater).

  • Climate change causes slow onset events &

immediate shocks

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Climate - Migration

  • The politics of language: climate-induced

migrants or refugees (more urgent!), temporary migrants or environmentally displaced persons?

  • Migration as desirable adaptation option (e.g.

low laying islands)

  • Most evidence: Regional, temporary,

urbanisation

  • But, predictions that 200-300 million people

may migrate due to climate change

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Debate

  • Yes, in certain areas climate change leads to

migration (Reuveny, 2017, Warnecke et al 2010, Gemenne et al, 2011)

  • Too much emphasis on environmental drivers

(Selby and Hoffmann 2012, Brzoska and Fröhlich, 2016)

  • Case studies migration due to:

– Drought: Iraq, Syria (contested!), Sahel, Middle- East, Peru/Bolivia – Flood risk: Vietnam, Bangladesh

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Migration & Security

  • Politically correct: migration often a solution,

not a problem (true, but..)

  • Urbanisation: new workforce, new tensions
  • Refugee camps
  • People drowning in Mediterranean Sea
  • Terrorism
  • Human smuggling/ exploitation of migrants en

route: new crime sector

  • Political tensions in destination countries
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Climate-focused no regret options could reduce migration?

  • Landscape restoration, water infrastructure,

desalinisation & renewable energy projects may reduce push factors & create jobs

  • Currently; ad hoc, small scale, undermined by

political & governance issues common to development projects

  • Limited finance due to limited evidence &

political sensitivities link climate – migration - security

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New Research Frontiers

  • Strengthen evidence on climate-migration and

security links (e.g. IPCC, etc)

  • From case studies to meta analysis & foresight
  • Overcome misunderstandings between

disciplines & fears against “securitization”

  • Analyse (potential) contribution of climate-

related action to reducing migration & conflict risk

  • Investigate demand in affected territories (e.g.

triple S initiative UNCCD)

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Contact: psi@clingendael.nl www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org

12-13 December 2017: 3rd edition Planetary Security Conference Focus at Migration & Urbanisation Spotlight areas: Lake Chad, Iraq and Mali

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Thank you!

  • Dr. Louise van Schaik,

Head Clingendael International Sustainability Centre,

lschaik@clingendael.nl