security: hype or reality? Dr. Louise van Schaik Hague Roundtable - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Climate change, migration & security: hype or reality?

• Dr. Louise van Schaik

Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security, 21 September, IHE, Delft

Implications for Europe

• https://freedomhouse.or

g/report/freedom-world- 2016/overview-essay- anxious-dictators- wavering-democracies

Unpacking contested relationships

• Climate – migration
• Migration – security
• Climate – conflict (climate as threat multiplier)
• The potential contribution of adaptation as no

regret option, i.e. with co-benefits for migration and security policy objectives (and vice versa)

• New research frontiers

Migration: push & pull factors

• Push (reasons to leave): Social, Economic &

Political factors

• Pull (attraction of new destination)
• Climate change mostly related to ec. factors,

jeopardises livelihoods based on water & food, but also flood risk (& salinisation of groundwater).

• Climate change causes slow onset events &

immediate shocks

Climate - Migration

• The politics of language: climate-induced

migrants or refugees (more urgent!), temporary migrants or environmentally displaced persons?

• Migration as desirable adaptation option (e.g.

low laying islands)

• Most evidence: Regional, temporary,

urbanisation

• But, predictions that 200-300 million people

may migrate due to climate change

Debate

• Yes, in certain areas climate change leads to

migration (Reuveny, 2017, Warnecke et al 2010, Gemenne et al, 2011)

• Too much emphasis on environmental drivers

(Selby and Hoffmann 2012, Brzoska and Fröhlich, 2016)

• Case studies migration due to:

– Drought: Iraq, Syria (contested!), Sahel, Middle- East, Peru/Bolivia – Flood risk: Vietnam, Bangladesh

Migration & Security

• Politically correct: migration often a solution,

not a problem (true, but..)

• Urbanisation: new workforce, new tensions
• Refugee camps
• People drowning in Mediterranean Sea
• Terrorism
• Human smuggling/ exploitation of migrants en

route: new crime sector

• Political tensions in destination countries

Climate-focused no regret options could reduce migration?

• Landscape restoration, water infrastructure,

desalinisation & renewable energy projects may reduce push factors & create jobs

• Currently; ad hoc, small scale, undermined by

political & governance issues common to development projects

• Limited finance due to limited evidence &

political sensitivities link climate – migration - security

New Research Frontiers

• Strengthen evidence on climate-migration and

security links (e.g. IPCC, etc)

• From case studies to meta analysis & foresight
• Overcome misunderstandings between

disciplines & fears against “securitization”

• Analyse (potential) contribution of climate-

related action to reducing migration & conflict risk

• Investigate demand in affected territories (e.g.

triple S initiative UNCCD)

Contact: psi@clingendael.nl www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org

12-13 December 2017: 3rd edition Planetary Security Conference Focus at Migration & Urbanisation Spotlight areas: Lake Chad, Iraq and Mali

Thank you!

• Dr. Louise van Schaik,

Head Clingendael International Sustainability Centre,

lschaik@clingendael.nl