Climate change, migration & security: hype or reality? Dr. Louise van Schaik Hague Roundtable on Climate & Security, 21 September, IHE, Delft
Implications for Europe
• https://freedomhouse.or g/report/freedom-world- 2016/overview-essay- anxious-dictators- wavering-democracies
Unpacking contested relationships • Climate – migration • Migration – security • Climate – conflict (climate as threat multiplier) • The potential contribution of adaptation as no regret option, i.e. with co-benefits for migration and security policy objectives (and vice versa) • New research frontiers
Migration: push & pull factors • Push (reasons to leave): Social, Economic & Political factors • Pull (attraction of new destination) • Climate change mostly related to ec. factors, jeopardises livelihoods based on water & food, but also flood risk (& salinisation of groundwater). • Climate change causes slow onset events & immediate shocks
Climate - Migration • The politics of language: climate-induced migrants or refugees (more urgent!), temporary migrants or environmentally displaced persons? • Migration as desirable adaptation option (e.g. low laying islands) • Most evidence: Regional, temporary, urbanisation • But, predictions that 200-300 million people may migrate due to climate change
Debate • Yes, in certain areas climate change leads to migration (Reuveny, 2017, Warnecke et al 2010, Gemenne et al, 2011) • Too much emphasis on environmental drivers (Selby and Hoffmann 2012, Brzoska and Fröhlich, 2016) • Case studies migration due to: – Drought: Iraq, Syria (contested!), Sahel, Middle- East, Peru/Bolivia – Flood risk: Vietnam, Bangladesh
Migration & Security • Politically correct: migration often a solution, not a problem (true, but..) • Urbanisation: new workforce, new tensions • Refugee camps • People drowning in Mediterranean Sea • Terrorism • Human smuggling/ exploitation of migrants en route : new crime sector • Political tensions in destination countries
Climate-focused no regret options could reduce migration? • Landscape restoration, water infrastructure, desalinisation & renewable energy projects may reduce push factors & create jobs • Currently; ad hoc, small scale, undermined by political & governance issues common to development projects • Limited finance due to limited evidence & political sensitivities link climate – migration - security
New Research Frontiers • Strengthen evidence on climate-migration and security links (e.g. IPCC, etc) • From case studies to meta analysis & foresight • Overcome misunderstandings between disciplines & fears against “securitization” • Analyse (potential) contribution of climate- related action to reducing migration & conflict risk • Investigate demand in affected territories (e.g. triple S initiative UNCCD)
12-13 December 2017: 3rd edition Planetary Security Conference Focus at Migration & Urbanisation Spotlight areas: Lake Chad, Iraq and Mali Contact: psi@clingendael.nl www.planetarysecurityinitiative.org
Thank you! Dr. Louise van Schaik, Head Clingendael International Sustainability Centre, lschaik@clingendael.nl
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