The Hype and Reality of Electrical Energy S torage Brett A. Perlman - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
The Hype and Reality of Electrical Energy S torage Brett A. Perlman S enior Fellow Agenda for today Promise of Energy Storage Current Energy S torage Market S ize Energy S torage Technology Overview Business cases for
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Current Activities:
Non-Resident Fellow, BU Inst it ut e for S
ust ainable Energy. Fellow, Harvard Advanced Leadership Init iative.
President, Vect or Advisors. Current act ivities on providing
management consult ing services t o energy client s
Board of Direct ors, Just Energy. NYS
E/ TS X t raded ret ailer of gas and elect ricit y in 17 deregulated Nort h American market s, UK and Germany Professional Background:
Commissioner, Public Ut ilit y Commission of Texas (1999 t o
2003): Responsible for t he successful rest ruct uring of Texas’ $17 billion elect ric ut ilit y indust ry and $4 billion t elecommunicat ions indust ry.
Management consult ant : Houst on office of McKinsey &
Company, wit h focus on developing business st rat egy for t elecommunicat ions and elect ric ut ilit y client s Education:
MP
A, Harvard Kennedy S chool
JD, Universit y of Texas Law S
chool
BA, Nort hwest ern Universit y 3 Energy S
t orage
− Proj ect Acorn: Working wit h Mike Aziz
(Harvard S EAS ) on organic flow bat t ery t echnology
Energy Technology Commercialization − Mat erials Translat ional Init iat ive:
Working wit h Ramana Nanda (HBS ) and S adas S hankar (Harvard S EAS ) on new business model t o commercialize energy t ech.
Elect ricity Market S
t ruct ures
− HBS
Case S t udy (2017): Mexican Power Market wit h HBS
− Upcoming S
ummit on Nort h American Energy S ecurit y wit h former Mexican Deput y Energy S ecret ary and MIT Fellow Lourdes Melgar
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ALMOS T 150 years aft er phot ovolt aic cells and wind t urbines were invent ed, t hey st ill generate
Y et somet hing remarkable is happening. From being peripheral t o t he energy syst em j ust over a decade ago, t hey are now growing fast er t han any ot her energy source and t heir falling cost s are making t hem compet it ive wit h fossil fuels. Y et green energy has a dirt y secret . The more it is deployed, t he more it lowers t he price of power from any source. That makes it hard t o manage t he t ransit ion t o a carbon-free fut ure, during which many generating t echnologies, clean and dirt y, need t o remain profit able if t he light s are t o st ay on. The good news is that new technology can help fix the problem. Digitalisation, smart meters and batteries are enabling companies and households to smooth out their demand — by doing some energy-intensive work at night, for example. The bigger task is to redesign power markets to reflect the new need for flexible supply and demand.
5 Calif. GHG and renewable
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50 percent of electricity from renewable sources by 2030
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GHG reductions to 1990 levels
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1.5 MM zero emission vehicles by 2025 Creating grid reliability issues..
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Overgeneration during peaks
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S teep, sharp ramping after peaks
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Frequency issues since renewables aren’ t dispatchable …
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Could soak up “ excess” on-peak renewables
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Provide rapid dispatch to meet ramping requirements and frequency issue
California ISO’s “Duck Curve,” caused by high renewables penetration and GHG reduction goals… . … . is creating the need for more flexible resources, and perhaps a role for energy storage
6 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E Utility Non-residential Residential Annual deployments cross 1GW mark in 2019
1,662 U.S. Energy Storage Deployment by Segment (MV)
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S
t orage” Elect ric Power Research Inst it ut e, May 24, 2016
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0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000
144 1.9 1.0 0.9 0.4 <0.1
Total U.S . Energy S torage Installed BTM S torage Installed BTM Battery S torage Proj ects Installed
S
GIP dat a for California proj ect s and DOE Global Energy S t orage Dat abase for ot her st at es)
BTM Battery Storage by State
Utility- connected S torage Thermal storage proj ects
177 67 110 29 81 US Energy Storage Capacity – Q3, 2016 (MW)
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Mechanical Elect rochemical Thermal Elect rical Chemical (hydrogen)
Pimped Hydro (conventional storage) Lead acid, lithium Ion, S
ulfur, and S
Nickel Chloride S ensible-Molten salt, chilled water S upercapacitors Power-to-Power (fuel cells, etc.) CAES (Compressed Air Energy S torage) Flow batteries – Vanadium redox, Zinc-bromine Latent – Ice storage, Phase change materials S MES (S uper- conducting Magnetic Energy S torage) Power-to-Gas Flywheel Thermo- chemical storage
S
t udy Inst it ut e, Issue Brief, August 2013 Dat a source: S andia Nat ional Laborat ories
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S
S whit e paper, 2016
14 Flow Battery
Lead
Zinc Lithium Flywheel
S low Median Fast CAGR
5 Y ear
CAGR
5 Y ear
CAGR
5 Y ear
CAGR
5 Y ear
CAGR 0%
5 Y ear 0%
performance – S ize/ thickness reduces current flow
usable range of operation
to remove heat, higher efficiency motor/ generator
increases in capability / performance
usable energy and capability envelope
cale manufacturing lowering cost (Gigafactory)
battery, increases usable energy and range of
components
range of operation
S
survey
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S
A, US Energy S t orage Monit or (3Q 2016)
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* Assumes a 2 hour syst em
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S
t orage V2.0” , December 2016
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22 Hawaii:
tem
RPS by 2045 New York:
C supporting DER integration
system value”
T
accommodate Li-ion batteries California:
– S
CE 580 MW (85 MW BTM)
– PG&E 580 MW (85 MW BTM) – S
DG&E 165 MW (30 MW BTM)
GIP $1.80/ watt incentive for storage
– S
ONGS and fossil plant retirements local capacity resource procurement
– Aliso Canyon insufficient gas deliverability for peaking generation
B 350: 50% RPS by 2030 Massachusetts:
ept 2016 “ S tate of Charge” report indicates 1.8 GW of economically-viable storage (200 MW BTM)
underway
demonstration proj ects
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20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 <30% 30-35% 35-40% 40-45% 45-50% 50-55% 55-60% 60-65% >65%
S
GIP dat a (Dec. 26, 2016)
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S
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t rat egy: secure cont ract for large volumes of st orage w/ ut ilit y (e.g., S CE), t hen fulfill via BTM deployment s wit h C&I cust omers
bankrupt cy of S unEdison (former channel part ner)
t rong reliance on Tesla as bat t ery supplier
t art ed by bundling st orage wit h EV charging for C&I, now heavily focused on bundling st orage wit h PV
t andardized small-scale product line, focused exclusively on C&I cust omers
fleet aggregation and ut ility int erface
PV , which t hen leases syst em t o cust omer
ignificant capit al resources, especially proj ect finance ($350 million)
development via acquisit ion of S
Source Enovation Partners
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