SEA-LEVEL RISE & FLOOD RISK MONITORING Mark A. Merrifield , Director Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Port of San Diego Sea Level Rise Ad-Hoc Committee Meeting December 6, 2018
SEA-LEVEL RIS ISE San Diego sea level has risen by nearly 1 ft since 1906.
SEA-LEVEL RIS ISE PROJECTIONS Establish observing capabilities now to better understand future risks
SEA-LEVEL RISE CHALLENGES FOR SAN DIEGO Extremes become more extreme Chronic tidal flooding Saltwater Inundation Higher water tables impede drainage Damage to coastal infrastructure Increased beach and cliff erosion Stress on wetlands and coastal ecosystems
ADAPTIVE PATHWAYS Action A Time horizon 100 years Pathway Costs Benefits Co-benefits Action B 1 +++ + 0 Current situation 2 0 0 +++++ Action C 3 +++ 0 0 Action D 0 0 4 +++ 0 0 - 5 Changing conditions 6 ++++ 0 - 0 100 10 70 80 90 - 0 +++ 7 Time low-end scenario 8 + + - - - 0 10 100 70 80 90 + - - - Time high-end scenario ++ 9 Years Transfer station to new policy action Pathways that are not necessary in Adaptation Tipping Point of a policy action (Terminal ) the low-end scenario Policy action effective Signal Decision node Jayantha Obeysekera
IM IMPERIAL BEACH FLOODING EVENT
RESILIENT FUTURE IN INITIATIVE IM IMPERIAL BEACH FL FLOOD WARNING SYSTEM Monitoring: • Wave heights and period Drone surveys • Currents/ wave directions • Wave run-up Water level sensors • Tides • Location, duration and depth of flooding during events • Groundwater elevation Wave buoy Tide gauge changes & salinity • Beach width changes Salinity Lifeguard Tower Camera
EXTREME TOTAL WATER LEVELS – EXAMPLE IM IMPERIAL BEACH
SAN DIE IEGO BAY OBSERVATIONS TO TRA RACK FOR FL FLOOD RIS RISK AND MODEL SE SEA LE LEVEL RIS RISE Waves & Circulation: Sea and swell models + circulation models Water levels: How various locations around the Bay response to tides/waves Winds: wind-driven waves Land elevation: sea levels rising or subsiding Groundwater https://cdip.ucsd.edu/?nav=recent&sub=nowcast&units=metric&tz=UTC&pub=public Shoreline/beach changes
SAN DIE IEGO BAY FL FLOOD RI RISK AND SE SEA-LEVEL RI RISE
SAN DIE IEGO BAY PIL ILOT PROJECT FOCUSED ON AIRPORT
OTH THER MONITORING APPLICATIONS FOR SAN DIE IEGO BAY Beach Erosion Inform Ocean Planning and Maritime Operations Living Shorelines Sand Replenishment https://www.conservationgateway.org
VALIDATION IN INFORMATION FOR SLR TOOLS http://data.pointblue.org/apps/ocof/cms/index.php?page=flood-map https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/ https://cal-adapt.org/tools/slr-calflod-3d/
A MODERNIZED COASTAL SE SEA LE LEVEL OBSERVING SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE … forecasts for today’s inundation threats understanding of the drivers of flooding and their joint probabilities framework for adaptation triggers testbed for model development means to evaluate adaptation projects context for SLR projections
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