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Panel Regarding Sea Panel Regarding Sea-
- Level Rise
Level Rise
Public Policy Forum
March 10, 2010
MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Sea Sea-
- Level Rise Panel
Panel Regarding Sea- -Level Rise Level Rise Panel Regarding Sea - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Panel Regarding Sea- -Level Rise Level Rise Panel Regarding Sea - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Panel Regarding Sea- -Level Rise Level Rise Panel Regarding Sea Public Policy Forum March 10, 2010 Donald F. Boesch Sea- -Level Rise Panel Level Rise Panel Sea Don Boesch Don Boesch Univ. Maryland Center for Environmental Science
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SLIDE 3
MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Gauges Measure Relative Sea Gauges Measure Relative Sea-
- Level
Level
Measured by tide gauges
SLIDE 4
MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Relative Sea Relative Sea-
- Level Trends
Level Trends
Baltimore 3.1 Pensacola 2.1 Grand Isle, LA 9.2 Galveston 6.4 Sitka, AK -2.1 Los Angeles 0.8
0.2 0.4 0.6
- 0.2
- 0.4
- 0.6
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Charleston 3.2 Global ocean mean 0.18
Sea level (m) relative to 2000
San Fran. 2.0
Sea level rise rates over the periods of record indicated in mm/yr http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/sltrends/sltrends.shtml
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Post 19 Post 19th
th Century Sea
Century Sea-
- Level Rise
Level Rise
3.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr (1993-present)
Church et al. 2008
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Global Sea Global Sea-
- Level Rise
Level Rise
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/
Satellite altimeter
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Sea Sea-
- Level Rise Is Not Uniform
Level Rise Is Not Uniform
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Accelerated Loss of Land Ice Accelerated Loss of Land Ice
Velicogna 2009
GRACE
gravity field measurements
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Cumulative mean annual mass balance reference glaciers all glaciers
Continental Glaciers
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Closing the SLR Budget Closing the SLR Budget
Murphy et al. 2009
ARGO
Cazenave & Llovel 2010 JASON-2 GRACE
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Semi Semi-
- Empirical Projection of SLR
Empirical Projection of SLR
Vermeer & Rahmstorf (2009) method IPCC (2007) projections
L i n e a r p r
- j
e c t i
- n
@ 3 . 2 m m / y r
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
New Findings Since IPCC AR4 New Findings Since IPCC AR4
Altimeter trends (>3 mm/yr) vary with climate but continue. Contribution of polar ice sheets and glaciers is increasing. Regional variability due to non-uniform thermal expansion. Kinematic constraints on polar glaciers likely constrain SLR to 2 m during this century, more likely around 0.8 m. Submarine melting important in ice sheet mass loss. Empirical models based on temperature projections suggest 20th century SLR at least twice that of IPCC. 6 m or more of SLR over several centuries likely to be locked in as a result of 21st century warming.
SLIDE 12
MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Vulnerable Coastal Landscapes Vulnerable Coastal Landscapes
DE NJ MD DC VA North Carolina
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MVN RSM Program MVN RSM Program
Some Critical Needs Some Critical Needs
Sustained ocean observing system, particularly in areas influencing ice sheets. Models capable of reliable projections of land-ice melting and thermal expansion. Coastal system models capable of projecting inundation, tidal exchange, storm surge, estuarine ecosystem dynamics, and wetland and landform responses. Socioeconomic decision-making tools to inform adaptation decisions.
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“ “Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself. Science is a way of trying not to fool yourself.” ”
Richard Feynman Richard Feynman