School Places Planning Felicity Roe, Assistant Director, Childrens - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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School Places Planning Felicity Roe, Assistant Director, Childrens - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Nov 28, 2022 268 likes •587 views

School Places Planning Felicity Roe, Assistant Director, Childrens Services 11 th September 2013 School places forecasting g p School places forecasting g p School places forecasting p g E = mc 2 Factors influencing demand Factors

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School Places Planning

Felicity Roe, Assistant Director, Childrens Services

11th September 2013

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School places forecasting p g

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School places forecasting p g

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School places forecasting p g

E = mc2

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Factors influencing demand

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Factors influencing supply g pp y

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Heather’s summer eat e s su e

  • Establishing data sources

Establishing data sources

  • Office of National Statistics (ONS)
  • 2011 Census

2011 Census

  • IOW school information system
  • Health data

Health data

  • Housing development plans and starts

timelines

  • Mapping
  • Running Forecasting model

Running Forecasting model

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Isle of Wight Population: Census 2011 g p

  • The population of the Isle of Wight has grown by 5,540

people since 2001 and is now 138,270

  • The number of households has risen by 5060 from

128 650 in 2001 to 133 710 in 2011 128,650 in 2001 to 133,710 in 2011

  • The average household size declined from 2.24 in

The average household size declined from 2.24 in 2001 to 2.20 in 2011

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Isle of Wight: Census 2011

The Population of the The Population of the Isle of Wight is….

Ageing

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Looking towards the future…

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Number of Live Births: Isle of Wight Trend and Projected Live Births

1600 1700 1400 1500 Projected Live Births 1200 1300 Projected Live Births 1000 1100 Live Births 800 900 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Sources: ONS Births Database Sources: ONS Births Database Notes: Projections using 2002 as a Baseline Year - Linear Trends This data is a projection based on regression linear formulas and does not take into account future migration or amount of women at birthing age.

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Birth Data vs Forecasts

1,400 1,450 1,350 en 1,250 1,300 Childre

Birth YrR

1,150 1,200 1,100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Forecast Point Forecast Point

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Hampshire’s School Places Forecasting Model: p g

  • Birth Data – small area population forecast
  • Housing – ‘yield’ from new developments
  • Year on Year movement – (mostly transfers)
  • Sixth Forms
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Primary Forecasting

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Primary Forecasting Results

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Primary Forecasting Results

Primary Across the Isle of Wight

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Cowes Year R: Cowes NoR:

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Primary Pressures across the years…

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Primary to Secondary Transition

  • 2% Transitional Drop Out
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Secondary Forecasting Results

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Secondary Forecasting Results

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Next steps p

  • School Cluster Meetings
  • 25th September 2013
  • 27th September 2013

th

  • 30th September 2013
  • 8th October 2013
  • Refining the Forecasting Model & Datasets – November 2013
  • Beginning to make decisions – Early 2014
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www.iwight.com