Scenario Planning in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Dr. Cynthia A. Lintz, AICP, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Scenario Planning in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Dr. Cynthia A. Lintz, AICP, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Apr 07, 2023 198 likes •526 views

Scenario Planning in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Dr. Cynthia A. Lintz, AICP, Planner Eric Denfeld , P.E., Planning Branch Head Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southeast Amanda Smith , Regional Planner Sean Ebersold,

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Scenario Planning in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba

  • Dr. Cynthia A. Lintz, AICP, Planner

Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Eric Denfeld, P.E., Planning Branch Head Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southeast Amanda Smith, Regional Planner Naval Facilities Engineering Command Southeast Sean Ebersold, AICP, Urban and Regional Planner Ecology & Environment, Inc.

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Session Objectives

  • Provide background information about Naval Station Guantanamo Bay,

Cuba (NSGB)

  • Scenario planning overview
  • Discuss scenarios
  • Comparison with Guam

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Location

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Location

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Location

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Climate

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Timeline

1903 US leases 45 square miles of land - 2,000 gold coins a year ($4,085). 1959 Castro’s communist revolutionaries take control. 1991 45,000 Cubans and Haitians are held in tent cities across the base. 2002 JTF Guantanamo activated to manage detention facility. 2009 President Obama takes office, vowing to close the detention facility. 2015 Cuba and the United States restore diplomatic relations.

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Command Areas

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Navy Master Planning

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Constraints

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Constraints

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Existing Conditions

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Scenario Planning Overview “This present moment used to be the unimaginable future.”

Stewart Brand

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Scenario Planning Overview

  • Scenario planning helps make sense and plan for an uncertain
  • future. It doesn’t predict the future.
  • Scenarios allow a shared view of the future to be developed, and

then…

  • Provide the opportunity for an organization to consider how it wants

to position itself in that future.

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning Overview

  • Scenario planning helps make sense and plan for an uncertain
  • future. It doesn’t predict the future.
  • Scenarios allow a shared view of the future to be developed, and

then…

  • Provide the opportunity for an organization to consider how it wants

to position itself in that future.

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning Overview

  • Scenario planning helps make sense and plan for an uncertain
  • future. It doesn’t predict the future.
  • Scenarios allow a shared view of the future to be developed, and

then…

  • Provide the opportunity for an organization to consider how it wants

to position itself in that future.

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning – Types of Futures

  • Possible
  • “might” happen (future knowledge)
  • Plausible
  • “could” happen (current knowledge)
  • Probable
  • “likely” to happen (current trends)
  • Preferable - “want” to happen (value judgements)

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning – Types of Futures

  • Possible
  • “might” happen (future knowledge)
  • Plausible
  • “could” happen (current knowledge)
  • Probable
  • “likely” to happen (current trends)
  • Preferable - “want” to happen (value judgements)

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning – Types of Futures

  • Possible
  • “might” happen (future knowledge)
  • Plausible
  • “could” happen (current knowledge)
  • Probable
  • “likely” to happen (current trends)
  • Preferable - “want” to happen (value judgements)

Maree Conway

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Scenario Planning – Types of Futures

  • Possible
  • “might” happen (future knowledge)
  • Plausible
  • “could” happen (current knowledge)
  • Probable
  • “likely” to happen (current trends)
  • Preferable - “want” to happen (value judgements)

Guantanamo Bay’s scenario planning considers what’s plausible.

Maree Conway

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Guantanamo Bay Scenarios

Scenario 1. Hurricane or Earthquake Scenario 2. New Mission Requirements Scenario 3. Migrant Surge

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Scenario 1. Hurricane or Earthquake

What’s the shared view?

Possible

  • “might” happen (future knowledge)

Plausible

  • “could” happen (current knowledge)

Probable

  • “likely” to happen (current trends)

Preferable

  • “want” to happen (value judgements)
  • 1. A major hurricane or earthquake causes

significant damage and disruption to carrying out mission requirements.

  • 2. Critical water supply and treatment, and

power generation infrastructure are damaged leaving no water or electricity.

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Scenario 1. Hurricane or Earthquake

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Scenario 2. New Mission Requirements

  • 1. With increased funding for the military, there is a new need for the base to

support larger ships.

  • 2. Increased infrastructure demands and base support requirements could
  • ccur.

What’s the shared view?

Possible

  • “might” happen (future knowledge)

Plausible

  • “could” happen (current knowledge)

Probable

  • “likely” to happen (current trends)

Preferable

  • “want” to happen (value judgements)

Photo: Michael C. Woods

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Scenario 2. New Mission Requirements

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Scenario 2. New Mission Requirements

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Scenario 3. Migrant Surge

  • 1. Similar to 1994, a flood of refugees from

Venezuela, Haiti, and/or Cuba come to the base. Within the first week, 13,000 refugees arrive and more are expected.

  • 2. Knowing past trends, we can expect

that this population will be here at least a year before the refugees are resettled.

Photo: Dvidshub.net

What’s the shared view?

Possible

  • “might” happen (future knowledge)

Plausible

  • “could” happen (current knowledge)

Probable

  • “likely” to happen (current trends)

Preferable

  • “want” to happen (value judgements)
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Scenario 3. Migrant Surge

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Using a Comparison (Guam)

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Using a Comparison (Guam)

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Thank You!

  • Dr. Cynthia A. Lintz, AICP,

Community Planner Naval Station Guantanamo Bay, Cuba Cynthia.Lintz@gtmo.navy.mil

Eric Denfeld, P.E.

Planning Branch Head Naval Facilities Engineering Command - Southeast eric.denfeld@navy.mil

Amanda Smith,

Regional Planner Naval Facilities Engineering Command - Southeast amanda.e.smith@navy.mil

Sean Ebersold, AICP,

Urban and Regional Planner Ecology & Environment, Inc. sebersold@ene.com

Photo: Michael C. Woods