SAVs: disruptive mobility Impacts on Land use and development - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

• The new urban normal • SAVs: disruptive mobility • Impacts on Land use and development David Dixon FAIA Stantec’s Urban Places Group March 6, 2017

NEW URBAN NORMAL Demographics are destiny — population growth by age: 1990-2010 OVER 65 UNDER 35 35-65

Demographics are destiny — population growth by age: 2010-2030 35-65 OVER 65 UNDER 35

Demographics are destiny — ~75% of new US households singles and couples

Demographics are destiny — ~75% of new US households singles and couples

Urban economic imperative — educated households 25-49 years old moving to dense urban cores, 2000-2014 HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN DENSE URBAN CORES 0-3 YEARS OF COLLEGE 4+ YEARS OF COLLEGE -10% -5% +5% +10% +15% +20%

Jane Jacobs conundrum — affluent households moving to dense urban cores, 2000-2014 HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN DENSE URBAN CORES 1ST DECILE 2ND 3RD 4TH 5TH 6TH 7TH 8TH 9TH 10TH - 15% -10% -5% +5% +10% +15%

DISRUPTIVE MOBILITY c onnected Shared Automated Vehicles (SAVs) — the first wave

When…and where… will SAVs make a difference?

$5,000.00 Five thousand and 00/100 SAV

A young knowledge worker thinking of moving to Tampa… $5,000.00 Five thousand and 00/100 SAV

IMPACTS ON LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT 2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE — Less parking, higher rents Baton Rouge Tampa One Charlotte Newton Charlestown

2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE — Less parking, higher rents Parking Rents 5-10% 5-10% Bus/BRT: 10-20% Baton Rouge Tampa

2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE — Less parking, higher rents Parking Rents 5-10% 5-10% Bus/BRT: 10-20% Baton Rouge 10-20% 10-20% Tampa Light Rail:

2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE — Less parking, higher rents Parking Rents 5-10% 5-10% Bus/BRT : 10-20% Baton Rouge 10-20% 10-20% Tampa Light Rail: 25-33% Heavy Rail 20-30% (TOD): One Charlotte Charlotte Newton Charlestown

2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE — 50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)? Additional SF Bus/BRT: 50-100% Baton Rouge Tampa

2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE — 50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)? Additional SF Bus/BRT: 50-100% Baton Rouge Tampa Light Rail: 35-75% Charlotte

2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE — 50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)? Additional SF Bus/ BRT: 50-100% Baton Rouge Tampa Light Rail: 35-75% Heavy Rail 25-50% (TOD): One Charlotte Newton Charlestown

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa $4/SF .75 $/SF Rent Parking spaces/ unit

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa Downtown

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa Channelside Downtown

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa Channelside Port Master Downtown Plan

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa Brightline Station

Bus/BRT served-region Water Street District, Tampa USF Innovation Alliance Airport Miami West Shore St Pete Water St South Tampa

2027-30 Why take SAVs seriously… in dense “urban” centers In 10- 13 years SAV’s will be positioned to… • Reduce the number of vehicles circulating around downtowns by 50+% • Together with AV’s begin saving 30,000 lives lost and $270B cost of human driving error Enable urban cores to grow • simultaneously significantly denser, greener, and more walkable