SAVs: disruptive mobility Impacts on Land use and development - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Apr 11, 2024 352 likes •637 views

The new urban normal SAVs: disruptive mobility Impacts on Land use and development David Dixon FAIA Stantecs Urban Places Group March 6, 2017 NEW URBAN NORMAL Demographics are destiny population growth by age: 1990-2010 OVER

SLIDE 1

The new urban normal
SAVs: disruptive mobility
Impacts on Land use and

development

David Dixon FAIA Stantec’s Urban Places Group March 6, 2017

SLIDE 2

OVER 65 UNDER 35

Demographics are destiny—population growth by age: 1990-2010

35-65

NEW URBAN NORMAL

SLIDE 3

UNDER 35 OVER 65 35-65

Demographics are destiny—population growth by age: 2010-2030

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Demographics are destiny— ~75% of new US households singles and couples

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Demographics are destiny— ~75% of new US households singles and couples

SLIDE 6

HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN DENSE URBAN CORES

0-3 YEARS OF COLLEGE 4+ YEARS OF COLLEGE

+5% +10% +15%

+20% Urban economic imperative— educated households 25-49 years old moving to dense urban cores, 2000-2014

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1ST DECILE

+5% +10% +15%

2ND 3RD 4TH 5TH 8TH 7TH 6TH 9TH 10TH

HOUSEHOLD CHANGE IN DENSE URBAN CORES

Jane Jacobs conundrum— affluent households moving to dense urban cores, 2000-2014

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DISRUPTIVE MOBILITY connected Shared Automated Vehicles (SAVs)— the first wave

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When…and where… will SAVs make a difference?

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$5,000.00 Five thousand and 00/100 SAV

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$5,000.00 Five thousand and 00/100 SAV

A young knowledge worker thinking of moving to Tampa…

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IMPACTS ON LAND USE AND DEVELOPMENT

2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE—Less parking, higher rents

Baton Rouge Tampa Newton One Charlestown Charlotte

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2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE—Less parking, higher rents

Baton Rouge Tampa

Bus/BRT:

10-20% 5-10% 5-10%

Parking Rents

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2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE—Less parking, higher rents

Baton Rouge Tampa

Light Rail:

10-20% 10-20%

Bus/BRT:

10-20% 5-10% 5-10%

Parking Rents

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2019-22: PRESENT FUTURE—Less parking, higher rents

Heavy Rail (TOD):

20-30% 25-33%

Light Rail:

10-20% 10-20%

Bus/BRT:

10-20% 5-10% 5-10%

Parking Rents

Charlotte Newton One Charlestown Baton Rouge Tampa Charlotte

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2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE—50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)?

Baton Rouge Tampa

Bus/BRT:

50-100%

Additional SF

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2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE—50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)?

Charlotte Baton Rouge Tampa

Light Rail: Bus/BRT:

50-100%

Additional SF

35-75%

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2027-30: POTENTIAL FUTURE—50-100% new growth for mature projects (with no new parking…)?

Charlotte Newton One Charlestown Baton Rouge Tampa

Light Rail: Bus/ BRT:

50-100%

Additional SF

25-50%

Heavy Rail (TOD):

35-75%

SLIDE 19

Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

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Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

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Water Street District, Tampa

$4/SF .75

$/SF Rent Parking spaces/ unit

Bus/BRT served-region

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Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

Downtown

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Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

Downtown Channelside

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Downtown Channelside

Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

Port Master Plan

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Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

Brightline Station

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Water Street District, Tampa

Bus/BRT served-region

Airport

Water St

Miami South Tampa St Pete USF Innovation Alliance West Shore

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2027-30 Why take SAVs seriously… in dense “urban” centers

In 10-13 years SAV’s will be positioned to…

Reduce the number of vehicles

circulating around downtowns by 50+%

Together with AV’s begin saving

30,000 lives lost and $270B cost of human driving error

Enable urban cores to grow

simultaneously significantly denser, greener, and more walkable