Safe and Policies Creation Safe and for the of a the a - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Policies Policies for

for the the

Creation Creation of

• f

a a

Safe and Safe and Secure Society Secure Society in

in the the

Light Light of

• f

Increasing Increasing Natural Disasters around Natural Disasters around the

the

World World

by

Masanori HAMADA Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

1

Natural Disasters in the World during Recent 5 Years (2003 Natural Disasters in the World during Recent 5 Years (2003～） ～） The number of events with more than 1000 Death Toll: 14 The number of events with more than 1000 Death Toll: 14 Death toll: 635,507 Death toll: 635,507

2005 India, Flood and Landslide（1,503） 2003 North of Algeria EQ. （2,266） 2003 Iran・Bam EQ. （43,200） 2005 North of Pakistan EQ. （74,651） 2008 Wenchuan EQ. （87,419） 2008 Myanmar Cyclone （133,655） 2004 India and Bangladesh, Flood（2,000） 2005 India and Bangladesh, Storm （4,049）

2004 Sumatra EQ. and Tsunami （229,866）

2006 Middle of Java Island EQ. （44,300） 2005 Hurricane Wilma（1,597） 2005 Hurricane Katrina（2,541） 2004 Caribbean Sea Hurricane （3,000） 2004 Haiti Flood（2,665）

Earthquake and Tsunami Storm and Flood

2

Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters in the world in Recent 5 Years Earthquake and Tsunami Disasters in the world in Recent 5 Years (2003~)

(2003~)

2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) (M=7.9, Dead:87,000) 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake (M=7.6, Dead:75,000) 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake 2005 Northern Pakistan Earthquake (M=7.6, Dead: (M=7.6, Dead:75,000) 75,000) 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami 2004 Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) (M=9.1, Dead:225,000) 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300) 2006 Java Earthquake (M=6.3, Dead:44,300)

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2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68) 2004 Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:68)

Earthquake Disasters in Japan in Recent 5 Years (2003~) Earthquake Disasters in Japan in Recent 5 Years (2003~)

2008 Iwate‐Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) 2008 Iwate 2008 Iwate‐ ‐Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23) Miyagi Earthquake (M=7.2, Dead:23)

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2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2007 Noto Earthquake (M=6.9, Dead:1) 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:15) 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, 2007 Off Coast of Niigata Earthquake (M=6.8, Dead:15) Dead:15)

Storm and Flood Disasters in The World in Recent 5 Years Storm and Flood Disasters in The World in Recent 5 Years (2003~

(2003~) Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Hurricane Katrina Hurricane Katrina (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) (2005, U.S.A, Dead:2,541) Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Cyclone (2008, Myanmar, Dead:133,655) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198) Typhoon No.23 (2004, Japan, Dead198)5 Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123) Cyclone Cyclone (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123) (2007, Bangladesh, Dead:4,123)

Damaging Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the World Damaging Earthquakes and Tsunamis in the World during Last 60 Years during Last 60 Years (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll)

NUMBER OF EVENTS

7 6 5 4 3 2 1 8

1946 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001

～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05

Asia America Europe Others

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Number of Earthquakes with Magnitudes Number of Earthquakes with Magnitudes more than 7 and 6 during Last 60 Years more than 7 and 6 during Last 60 Years

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

1946 50 ～ 51 55 ～ 56 60 ～ 61 65 ～ 66 70 ～ 71 75 ～ 76 80 ～ 81 85 ～ 86 90 ～ 91 95 ～ 96 2000 ～ 01 05 ～

Number of Events（above M7.0） Number of Events（above M6.0） above M7.0 above M6.0

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Damaging Storms and Floods in the World Damaging Storms and Floods in the World during 60 Years during 60 Years (Events with more than 1,000 Death Toll)

Number of Events

1946 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001

～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～ ～

50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 2000 05

14 12 10 8 6 4 2

Asia America Europe Others

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9

(a) Air Temperature (b) Sea Water Temperature

Temperature Change of Air and Sea Water in the Temperature Change of Air and Sea Water in the World during Last 40 Years World during Last 40 Years

• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 Temperature Change（℃）

• 0.4
• 0.3
• 0.2
• 0.1

0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 1966 71 76 81 86 91 96 2001 Temperature Change（℃）

0.5℃ Rise 0.3℃ Rise

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• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

81 86 91 96 2001 1976 Change of Mean Temp.（℃）

(b) Mean Temperature in Tokyo

2 4 6 8 10 12

81 86 91 96 2001 1976

(c) Number of Heavy Rains with 100mm/hour

Number （Japan Meteorological Agency） Change of Mean Temp.（℃）

• 1.5
• 1.0
• 0.5

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5

81 86 91 96 2001 1976 （a）

Mean Temperature in Japan

Change of Mean Temperature and Change of Mean Temperature and Rain Falls in Japan Rain Falls in Japan （ （1976 1976～ ～2004 2004） ）

0.7℃ Rise 1.0℃ Rise

Regional Ratio of The Numbers of Natural Disasters (1986~) Regional Ratio of The Numbers of Natural Disasters (1986~)

Number of Events : 59 Number of Death : 1,027,011

(Events with more than 1000 death toll) (Events with more than 1000 death toll)

Asia 71％ （42） America 20％ （11） Europe 5％ （3） Others 5％ （3） Asia 89％ （915,453） America 6％ （62,392） 4％ （42,300） Europe Others 1％ （6,866）

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Change of Natural Environment

・Global Warming ・Heat Island of Urbanized Area ・Deforestation ・Desertification ・Erosion by River and Seashore

Change of Social Environment Increase of Hazards due to Change

• f Natural Environment

・Heavy Rain and Snow ・Huge Typhoon , Hurricane and Cyclone ・Drought ・High Temperature ・High Wave and Storm Surge Scale and frequency of natural disasters are increasing. ・Measures against unexpected natural phenomena and external forces largely exceeding design level ・Implementation of both software and hardware measures

Increase of Natural Disasters due to the Changes of Increase of Natural Disasters due to the Changes of Natural and Social Environments Natural and Social Environments

・Congestion of Urban Area ・Depopulation of Rural Area ・Human Habitation on Fragile Ground ・Lack of Cooperation and Communication among Societies ・Budget Deficit of Central and Rural Governments ・Poverty and Low Governance

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Natural Disaster Mitigation by Combination Natural Disaster Mitigation by Combination

• f Hardware and Software Measures
• f Hardware and Software Measures

Hardware Measures External Forces

Moderates Disasters with Medium Probability Huge Disasters with Low Probability

Measures against Huge Natural Disasters Measures against Huge Natural Disasters with Low Probability with Low Probability

Reinforcement

• f Hardware

Measures Software Measures

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Request for Advisory from Minister of Land, Request for Advisory from Minister of Land, Infrastructure and Transport to SCJ President Infrastructure and Transport to SCJ President

－ － Policies on Infrastructure Development for Policies on Infrastructure Development for Disaster Mitigation under Global Increase of Disaster Mitigation under Global Increase of Natural Hazards and Vulnerability of Social Natural Hazards and Vulnerability of Social Circumstances Circumstances － －

Subjects: Subjects: 1. Forecast

• f

future natural hazards resulting from 1. Forecast

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future natural hazards resulting from the changes of global environments. the changes of global environments. 2. Evaluation

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hazards in national land 2. Evaluation

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hazards in national land‐ ‐use and social use and social structures, and evaluation

• f

vulnerability

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existing structures, and evaluation

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vulnerability

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existing infrastructures. infrastructures. 3.Proposals

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basic policies and measures for 3.Proposals

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basic policies and measures for improvement

• f

national land improvement

• f

national land‐ ‐utilization plan and for utilization plan and for development of infrastructures. development of infrastructures.

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Policies and Measures Recommended Policies and Measures Recommended by SCJ President by SCJ President （１） （１）

(1) (1) Paradigm shift Paradigm shift from short from short‐ ‐period view of efficiency of period view of efficiency of economics to long economics to long‐ ‐term view of creation of safe and term view of creation of safe and secure society secure society (2) (2) Stable and long Stable and long‐ ‐term tax spending term tax spending for measures of for measures of improvement of land improvement of land‐ ‐utilization and social systems, and utilization and social systems, and reinforcement of infrastructures reinforcement of infrastructures (3) (3) Reforms of the national land Reforms of the national land‐ ‐utilization plan utilization plan by by decentralization of population and properties, decentralization of population and properties, particularly, by establishment of back particularly, by establishment of back‐ ‐up systems to up systems to secure the capital function of Tokyo secure the capital function of Tokyo (4) (4) Improvement of both software and hardware measures Improvement of both software and hardware measures against huge natural disasters with low probability of against huge natural disasters with low probability of

• ccurrence
• ccurrence

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(5) (5) Unified and synthesized policies Unified and synthesized policies among ministries, among ministries, governmental offices and concerned authorities governmental offices and concerned authorities (6) (6) Creation of disaster Creation of disaster‐ ‐awareness society awareness society by education by education

• f people and by transfer of knowledge and
• f people and by transfer of knowledge and

experiences of past disasters to next generations experiences of past disasters to next generations (7) (7) Encouragement of NPO and NGO Encouragement of NPO and NGO’ ’s activities s activities for for natural disaster preparedness, and for rescue and natural disaster preparedness, and for rescue and recovery operation recovery operation (8) (8) International cooperation and assistance International cooperation and assistance in in developing countries under the consideration of the developing countries under the consideration of the characteristics of disasters, cultures and histories characteristics of disasters, cultures and histories

Policies and Measures Recommended Policies and Measures Recommended by SCJ President by SCJ President （２） （２）

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Senior volunteer Engineers Senior volunteer Engineers NPO Engineers without Borders , Japan NPO Engineers without Borders , Japan Private Sectors

・Construction Companies ・Construction Consultants

Private Sectors Private Sectors

・ ・Construction Companies Construction Companies ・ ・Construction Consultants Construction Consultants

Architectural Institute of Japan Architectural Architectural Institute of Japan Institute of Japan Japan Society

• f Civil Engineers

Japan Society Japan Society

• f Civil Engineers
• f Civil Engineers

Public Sectors Public Sectors

・ ・Ministry of Foreign Affairs Ministry of Foreign Affairs ・ ・JICA, JBIC and others JICA, JBIC and others

Joining Support

(1)Technical Supports for Restoration and Reconstruction to the Affected Area (2)Education on Natural Disaster Mitigation (3)Transfer of Technologies and Knowledge for Natural Disaster Mitigation

NPO NPO： ：Engineers without Borders, Japan Engineers without Borders, Japan

Support Support

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Education on natural disaster mitigation

International Cooperation International Cooperation and

and

Assistance Assistance for

for

Natural Disaster Mitigation Natural Disaster Mitigation Jointly Jointly by

by

EWOB,J EWOB,J and

and

Engineering Societies (JSCE and AIJ) Engineering Societies (JSCE and AIJ)

Technical training of local engineers on soil survey Construction of monuments on the tsunami height and education Recommendations on policies for reconstruction and disaster mitigation to the president of Indonesia and governors

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International Cooperation and Assistances on Natural Disaster International Cooperation and Assistances on Natural Disaster Mitigation (2) Jointly by 7 Academic Societies Mitigation (2) Jointly by 7 Academic Societies (JSCE, AIJ, JGS, JAEE, SSJ,CPIJ,AJG) (in Sichuan of China) (JSCE, AIJ, JGS, JAEE, SSJ,CPIJ,AJG) (in Sichuan of China)

Seminar on reconstruction Technical discussions on Restoration of slope failure Support for establishment of a research center for earthquake disaster mitigation in Sichuan

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Damaged Building Proposal of retrofitting of a damaged building

Public Public Works Works

Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Re Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Resistance sistance

・ ・National strategy National strategy ・ ・Reinforcement of Infrastructures Reinforcement of Infrastructures ・ ・Rescue and Firefighting Rescue and Firefighting ・ ・Restoration and Reconstruction, etc. Restoration and Reconstruction, etc.

Community Cooperation Community Cooperation

Construction of Community with High Construction of Community with High Natural Disaster Resistance Natural Disaster Resistance

・ ・Planning regional measures Planning regional measures ・ ・Education and Training Education and Training ・ ・Firefighting and rescue Firefighting and rescue ・ ・Care of Refugees, etc. Care of Refugees, etc.

National Movement for Natural Disaster Mitigation by Public Work National Movement for Natural Disaster Mitigation by Public Works, s, Community Cooperation and Individual Efforts Community Cooperation and Individual Efforts

・Central Governments ・Prefectural and Municipal Government ・Civic Organizations ・Companies ・School ・NPO,NGO ・Citizens ・Families ・Public Organizations

Individual Efforts Individual Efforts

To make To make Home and Family Home and Family Natural Disaster Natural Disaster Resistance Resistance

・ ・Retrofitting of Houses Retrofitting of Houses ・ ・Fixing of Furniture Fixing of Furniture ・ ・Education Education ・ ・Stock of Water and Food Stock of Water and Food

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Individual Efforts Individual Efforts

Natural Disaster Natural Disaster Resistant Home and Family Resistant Home and Family

・ ・Retrofitting of Houses Retrofitting of Houses ・ ・Fixing of Furniture Fixing of Furniture ・ ・Education Education ・ ・Stock of Water and Food Stock of Water and Food

Societies and Associations Societies and Associations for Engineers and Scientists for Engineers and Scientists (JSCE, AIJ etc.) (JSCE, AIJ etc.)

・Education of Children and parents ・Technical Advices

Participation of SCJ and Societies of Scientist and Engineers Participation of SCJ and Societies of Scientist and Engineers to the National Movement to the National Movement

・Seminar and Symposium on Technical Assistances ・Recommendations

• n

Policies

Community Cooperation Community Cooperation

Construction of Community with High Construction of Community with High Natural Disaster Resistance Natural Disaster Resistance

・ ・Planning regional measures Planning regional measures ・ ・Education and Training Education and Training ・ ・Firefighting and rescue Firefighting and rescue ・ ・Care of Refugees, etc. Care of Refugees, etc.

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Science Council of Japan Science Council of Japan Science Council of Japan Public Public Works Works

Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Re Construction of Country and Region with High Natural Disaster Resistance sistance

・ ・National strategy National strategy ・ ・Reinforcement of Infrastructures Reinforcement of Infrastructures ・ ・Rescue and Firefighting Rescue and Firefighting ・ ・Restoration and Reconstruction, etc. Restoration and Reconstruction, etc. ・Request for Advisory