INDUSTRIAL | RETAIL | OFFICE | RESIDENTIAL | REST OF AFRICA
SA Corporate December 2018 Results Presentation
March 2019
SA Corporate December 2018 Results Presentation March 2019 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
SA Corporate December 2018 Results Presentation March 2019 INDUSTRIAL | RETAIL | OFFICE | RESIDENTIAL | REST OF AFRICA Agenda Highlights Rory Mackey Financial Performance Antoinette Basson Portfolio Review Rory Mackey
INDUSTRIAL | RETAIL | OFFICE | RESIDENTIAL | REST OF AFRICA
March 2019
Rory Mackey
Antoinette Basson
Rory Mackey
Rory Mackey
Commercial Exposure Rory Mackey
Rory Mackey
Rory Mackey
Rory Mackey
Team
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3
Distribution Themes
greater contributions from acquisitions and developments
(excluding a national retailer’s negative reversion at East Point) and weighted average escalations of 7.6%
Investment Strategy
R637m Capital Structure
a period of 2.5 years
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5
6 * Cents per share
10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 40.00 45.00 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 16.28 17.68 19.66 21.44 22.38 21.70 16.47 18.02 19.91 21.58 22.54 20.52
History (CPS*)
Interim Final
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 8.6% 9.0% 10.8% 8.7% 4.4%
GROWTH (%)
7
Dec 2018 Dec 2017 % Rm Rm Variance Net Property Income - Like for Like
945.168 936.192 1.0
Net Property Income - Developments
296.675 277.661 6.8
Net Property Income - Acquisitions
132.330 67.805 95.2
Net Property Income - Buildings sold
55.168 88.858 (37.9)
Net Property Income
1,429.341 1,370.516 4.3
Investment in Joint Ventures
61.668 58.960 4.6
Distribution related income
(100.0)
Net finance costs
(391.958) (308.443) (27.1)
Dividends from investments in listed shares
13.954 23.783 (41.3)
Distribution related expenses
(44.789) (45.766) 2.1
Antecedent distribution
(100.0)
Distributable earnings
1,068.216 1,136.710 (6.0)
Portfolio growth underpinned by acquisitions, development expenditure and upward revaluation 8
16,833 17,801 442 1,271 ( 677 ) ( 68 ) 15,500 16,000 16,500 17,000 17,500 18,000 18,500 19,000 19,500 Investment Properties December 2017 Acquisitions Improvements / Development costs Disposals Fair value adjustment Investment Properties December 2018
R’bn
cents
9 100 200 300 400 500 600 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Total Assets (Rbn) Market Cap (Rbn) NAV per share (cents) Share Price (cents)
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514.1 (3.2) 0.8 (1.4) (0.1) (44.2) 42.2 508.2 300.0 325.0 350.0 375.0 400.0 425.0 450.0 475.0 500.0 525.0
Opening NAV 1 January 2018 Revaluation
Investment Properties, Shares and Interest Rate Swaps Net exposure to Zambian JV Other Non- distributable income statement items NCI Distributions paid December 2017 Distributable earnings June 2018 Closing NAV 30 June 2018
Sources of Capital
Debt finance sources are diversified between banks and institutional borrowings.
11 12.0% 10.7% 2.8% 2.8% 1.0% Absa Standard Bank Investec Nedbank State Bank of India
Equity 67.1% Standard Bank
0.5% Institutional and DFI Debts 3.1% Syndicated Loans 29.3%
Equity Standard Bank - Calgro JV Institutional and DFI Debts Syndicated Loans
WAR of 8.4%, WAM of 1.7% and weighted average tenor of 1.8 years, 2.5 years excluding 2019 expiring debt
* AFD Fixed rate debt # SA Corporate’s 51% portion of Afhco Consortium Joint Initiative funding
12 425 200 270 30
848 500 950 387 500 500 550
143 120 1,000
143 94 325
300
Term Loan, 8.72% Term Loan, 8.67% Term Loan, 8.67% Revolving Credit, 8.60% Revolving Credit, 8.72% Term Loan (Syndication), 8.95% Term Loan (Syndication), 8.85% Term Loan (Syndication), 8.93% Term Loan (US$), 4.39% Term Loan (Syndication), 8.97% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.10% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.00% Cross Currency (ZAR), -9.16% Cross Currency (US$), 3.98% # Term Loan, 9.50% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.16% Cross Currency (ZAR), -9.03% Cross Currency (US$), 4.36% * Amortising, 6.88%
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Jun 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Dec 2021 Dec 2021 Sep 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2024 Amount Drawn (Rm) Amount Available (Rm)
Maturity and interest rate profile of interest-bearing debt – WAR inclusive of fixes of 8.6%. Current LTV 34.6%
* AFD Fixed rate debt # SA Corporate’s 51% portion of Afhco Consortium Joint Initiative funding
13 425 200 270 30
500 950 387 500 500 550
143 120 1,000
143 94 325
300
Term Loan, 8.95% Term Loan, 8.90% Term Loan, 8.90% Revolving credit, 8.84% Revolving credit, 8.96% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.19% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.09% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.17% Term Loan (US$), 3.59% Term Loan (Syndicaion), 9.21% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.34% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.24% Cross Currency (ZAR), -9.40% Cross Currency (US$), 3.98% # Term Loan, 9.74% Term Loan (Syndication), 9.40% Cross Currency (ZAR), -9.26% Cross Currency (US$), 4.36% * Amortising, 6.88%
400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Feb 2019 Mar 2019 Nov 2019 Dec 2019 Jan 2020 Jun 2020 Nov 2020 Dec 2020 Dec 2021 Dec 2021 Sep 2022 Sep 2022 Nov 2022 Dec 2022 Jan 2023 Jan 2023 Apr 2024 Amount Drawn (Rm) Amount Available (Rm)
31 Dec 2018
Rate of 6.88% (weighted swap margin 0.24%) and weighted average tenor of 2.5
drawn is fixed (incl fixed rate debt)
* Includes $27m swap at 1.79% (based on US LIBOR) 14
2023 2022 2021 2020 2019
540 1,234 800 1,492 240 7.86% 7.45% 7.62% 5.75% * 6.35%
Swap amount (Rm), weighted average rate
15 (2,000) (1,500) (1,000) (500)
1,000 1,500 2,000 Balance 31 December 2017 Cash generated from operations net
Distributions paid Acquisitions and Improvements to Investment Properties and Property, Plant and Equipment Disposal of investment properties Other financial assets Loans to developers Investments in Joint Ventures Letting commissions and tenant installations Treasury buy back of shares NCI shareholder loan Net movement on local borrowings Repayment of foreign borrowings Balance 31 December 2018 275 1,024 (1,119) (1,719) 669 48 173 44 (17) (2) 162 686 (17) 207 Rm
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Sectoral Profile (% of GLA) Sectoral Profile (% of Market Value)
SA Corporate excluding Zambian JV
(Dec-17: R16.4bn)
bulk comprising of 9 properties and valued at R0.4bn. Zambian JV
(Dec-17: R875.0m) Like for Like Portfolio:
discount rate 15.3%
capitalisation rate 9.6%
17 45% 24% 4% 25% 2%
Dec 2018
48% 23% 4% 23% 2% Industrial Retail Commercial AFHCO Storage
Dec 2017
29% 43% 6% 21% 1% Industrial Retail Commercial AFHCO Storage
Dec 2017
28% 43% 5% 23% 1%
Dec 2018
20,000 Industrial Retail Commercial Storage AFHCO Average 6,231 18,047 15,798
10,511 6,453 19,679 16,532 3,304 9,606 10,643 6,922 19,967 15,917 2,403 10,565 11,208
Market Value per m²
December 2016 December 2017 December 2018
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2018 Portfolio Growth Retail 2.9% Commercial 1.7% Industrial
Afhco 5.9% SA Portfolio Total 1.0%
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1 – Represents 51% ownership in the joint initiative 2 – The cancellation of the acquisition of units at Fleurhof and Scottsdene from Calgro M3
Developments is under negotiation
Property Sector Forward Yield % Purchase price (R000) Transfer date Northgate Heights Phases 1 & 2, Northgate Residential 10.0 24,685 Jan-18 - Dec-18 Calgro M3 Developments - South Hills 1 Residential 10.0 176,960 Feb-18 - Nov-18 The Oaks, Ermelo Retail 10.7 105,000 Mar-18 African City Mall Final Phase, Johannesburg CBD Retail 11.6 32,873 Apr-18 - Jun-18 Calgro M3 Developments - Jabulani Lifestyle Phases 1 - 6, Soweto 1 Residential 10.0 54,989 Apr-18 - Sept-18 M&T Development - Etude Phase 4, Midrand Residential 10.0 47,795 Dec-18 Total 10.3 442,302
1 - Transferred 2 - Represents 60% ownership in the joint initiative 3 - SA Corporate has also secured an option to participate in phases 2 & 3 of the development,
with an estimated value of R793m and R529m respectively (based on 2020 pricing)
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Property Sector Forward Yield % Purchase price (R000) Expected transfer Northgate Heights Phase 2, Northgate Residential 10.0 3,083
1 Jan-19
M&T Development - Etude Phases 5 & 6, Midrand Residential 10.0 117,496 Mar-19 – May-19 M&T Development - Founders Hill Phases 1-6, Founders Hill 2 Residential 9.5 285,907 Mar-19 - Jun-20 M&T Development - Menlyn East End Development, Menlyn 2/3 Residential 10.0 211,614 Jun-21 Total 9.8 618,100
1 - Exit yield in year 2 is 6.8% due to a negative reversion
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Property Sector Exit Yield % Gross price (R000) Transfer date Atterbury Décor, Pretoria Retail 8.5 86,786 Jan-18 Rhodesdene Shopping Centre, Kimberley Retail 8.8 52,000 Mar-18 22 Voortrekker Road, Vredenburg Commercial 8.8 78,500 May-18 Lebombo Road, Garsfontein (Portion) Commercial 6.2 12,000 Jun-18 21 Pomona Road, Pomona Industrial 8.0 18,250 Jun-18 9/15 Lanner Road, New Germany Industrial 7.9 36,000 Jul-18 1/5 Stockville Road, Westmead Industrial 7.7 53,600 Sep-18 28 Durham Street, Mthatha Commercial 8.8 86,500 Sep-18 11 Coconut Grove, Shakashead Industrial 7.6 2,400 Oct-18 6 Cedarfield Close, Springfield Park Industrial 12.11 57,000 Oct-18 Burgundy Estate, Centurion (Portion) Residential 8.0 4,883 Oct-18 - Dec-18 24 Westmead Road, Westmead Industrial 6.7 26,000 Nov-18 1 Marconi Street, Montague Gardens Industrial 8.2 45,000 Dec-18 Table Bay Industrial Park, Paarden Eiland Industrial 8.3 118,450 Dec-18 Total 8.6 677,369
1 - Transferred 2 - Exit yield based on head lease rental
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Unconditional Property Sector Exit Yield % Gross price (R000) Expected transfer 14/24 Mahoganyfield Way, Springfield Park Industrial 8.0 36,000
1 Jan-19
40 Electron Avenue, Isando Industrial 9.0 59,672
1 Jan-19
Lebombo Road, Garsfontein (Remaining portion) Commercial 9.3 27,100 Mar-19 The Mall, Vanderbijl Park Afhco Retail 10.02 13,600 Mar-20 Total 8.9 136,372 Conditional Property Sector Exit Yield % Gross price (R000) Expected transfer Hotel at Cullinan Jewel Shopping Centre, Pretoria Retail 9.0 2,700 Nov-19 Total 9.0 2,700
* Retail excluding renewal of a national retailer at East Point Shopping Centre No retentions and reversions have been disclosed for the Residential and Storage sectors due to the short term nature of their leases 23
1.8%
7.7%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% Industrial Retail Retail * Commercial Total (excl. AFHCO) AFHCO Retail / Commercial
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7.8% 7.6% 8.0% 7.7% 8.9% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5% 9.0% 9.5% Industrial Retail Commercial Total (excl AFHCO) AFHCO Retail / Commercial
Afhco residential increases ~ 4%
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Vacancies Monthly 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+ % of GLA 2.1% 6.5% 16.7% 15.0% 23.0% 9.9% 26.8% Cumulative 2.1% 8.6% 25.3% 40.3% 63.3% 73.2% 100.0% 2.1% 6.5% 16.7% 15.0% 23.0% 9.9% 26.8% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% % of GLA
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Vacancies Monthly 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023+ % of GLA 4.8% 6.0% 16.0% 24.8% 13.6% 7.3% 27.5% Cumulative 4.8% 10.8% 26.8% 51.6% 65.2% 72.5% 100.0% 4.8% 6.0% 16.0% 24.8% 13.6% 7.3% 27.5% 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% 100.0% 120.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% % of GLA
(% of GLA)
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1.1% 4.5% 8.8% 2.7% 1.5% 3.1% 6.4% 2.3% 0.6% 4.1% 6.2% 2.1% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% Industrial Retail Commercial Total December 2016 December 2017 December 2018
(% of gross rental)
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0.9% 3.3% 5.4% 2.5% 1.0% 3.0% 6.0% 2.4% 0.4% 4.2% 5.5% 2.9% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% Industrial Retail Commercial Total December 2016 December 2017 December 2018
(Residential % of Units / Retail & Commercial % of GLA)
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3.4% 2.1% 4.8% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% Retail / Commercial
December 2016 December 2017 December 2018 10.4% 5.7% 7.1% 1.6% 6.3% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% December 2016 December 2017 December 2018 Existing Residential Calgro M3 JV units in tenanting-up phase 7.3% 13.4%
Tenant receivables as a % of rolling 12 months income
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2.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18
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a 2,500m² value sports apparel. Migration from a struggling sit down food to value sports apparel offering
Lovers Market - exposure to Kelvin and Bowling Roads.
pharmacy offering
Migration to Convenience Shopping
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KPI 2017 2018 Growth Foot Count 1,723,083 1,834,043 +6.4% Turnover R110,209,465 R131,965,410 +20.0% Spend per head R63.96 R71.95 +12.4% Cassper Nyovest Celebrity Partnership Mega Spend & Win R115,000 in prizes. DJ Sox Celebrity Event Mega Shape – Fitness Event with Mabliza
34 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21
R Savings
SA Corporate Solar PV Monthly Rand and kWh Savings
kWh "Rand" "Rand Forecast" kWh Forecast
kWh savings
Solar PV plants in progress and Solar PV installed as at Dec 2018 to be installed as at Dec 2019
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Site System Size (kWp) Comaro Crossing 380 Midway Mews 200 Montana Crossing 910 Willow Way 390 Coachmans Crossing 193 East Point 1,008 Celtis Ridge 199 Total 3,280 Site System Size (kWp) Stellenbosch Square 642 Town Square 290 Davenport 180 Musgrave 280 Hayfields 420 Umlazi 1,200 Bluff 1,200 Cambridge Crossing 195 Cullinan Jewel 325 Kempton Park Shoprite 594 Morning Glen 900 Springfield 1,000 Total 7,226
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GLA Vacancy Escalation Renewal Reversion 88,422m² 4.5% 8.2% 7.7% Property Acquisition/Development Completion Date GLA Total Cost Yield (%) African City July 2017 / December 2017 5,426m² R 88,579,814 11.6% Jeppe Street Post Office Retail May 2019 15,224m² R 132,630,688 11.5% 51 Pritchard Acquisition – 20 March 2017 Redevelopment – 31 March 2020 15,054m² R 175,000,000 R 85,337,475 10.7% 8.5%
Cross Border Trade study conducted by Dr. Tanya Zack in 2017:
Office, Maxwell, Moray, Normandie and Small Street Mall
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Property Vacancy 31 Dec 2017 Vacancy 30 Jun 2018 Vacancy 31 Dec 2018 Comments
EPM 0.4% 0.5% 0.4% Consistent low vacancy due to high demand for increasingly dominant retail node Acacia 10.6% 8.6% 1.1% FNB extended existing lease to incorporate majority
Jacaranda 6.4% (16% - June 2017) 8.8% 6.8% Consistent leasing of Edcon vacated space
Property Retention Rate 31 Dec 2017 Retention Rate 30 Jun 2018 Retention Rate 31 Dec 2018 Comments
EPM 100% 100% 72% Single lease of 467m2 not retained Acacia 41% 100% 100% Improved retention in 2018 as a consequence of competitive rentals Jacaranda 100% 100% 100% Improved tenant mix contributing to strong tenant retention
Property Renewal Reversion 31 Dec 2017 Renewal Reversion 30 Jun 2018 Renewal Reversion 31 Dec 2018 Comments
EPM 3% 0.8%
Excluding single large over let lease renewal reversion on other leases was +3% Acacia 3% 0%
GLA let to FNB Jacaranda 0% 5% 10% High renewal reversion achieved on two leases as a consequence of improved tenant mix
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Year Contracted Escalation Expiries Renewal Reversion
2018 7.8% 26.3%
1
2019 7.8% 17.6%
2
2020 7.8% 12.6% 1.8%
2
Reduction in Commercial Exposure Industrial Portfolio Rebased
R391m re-development @ 8.0% yield based on -40.0% rental reversion to market on
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250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 100 200 300 400 500 600 Leases Leads
2018 Completed – R201m @ 10.8% forecast yield
Resi 206 units Retail 549 m2
Resi 89 units Retail 2,455 m2 2019 Committed – R460m @ 10.8% forecast yield
Student accommodation 976 beds Retail 4,636 m2
Resi 382 units Retail 3,254 m2
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Jeppe Post Office Mpumelelo 120 End Street
Pipeline criteria refined to include:
Restructuring of Calgro M3 relationship under negotiation
Reduction of suburban exposure
reduced from R252m to R165m
Revised pipeline
44 2018 2019 2020 2021+ Units Acquired (to be) / Developed (to be) in Period 1,014 1,139 200 144 Reduction / Increase to that previously planned
0% 0% Total Units 8,743 9,882 10,082 10,226
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% Contribution to distribution growth 2.8% Like for like NPI growth 2.7 Impact of IHS redevelopment
Increased interest expense
2019 Forecast distribution growth 0.0
47
Establish platform for sustainable distribution growth by:
Glen Shopping Centre and 51 Pritchard St)
and concentrating retail portfolio on food services & convenience
properties to providing superior logistics space to tenants with covenant strength)
property sectors. Pipeline
development acquisitions to be restructured to focus on investments generating robust income growth
2019 performance:
leases to blue chip logistics tenants in latter part of 2018 albeit strong industrial NPI growth post 2019
48
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SAC: closing price v monthly volume traded Value traded as % of market capital
51
100,000,000 150,000,000 200,000,000 250,000,000 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Volume Traded Closing Price ( c ) FFB
EMI
GRT RES VKE FFA HYP SAC IPF RDF 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
Geographical Profile (% of GLA) Geographical Profile (% of Market Value)
52 65% 29% 3% 3%
Dec 2018
66% 25% 3% 6% 63% 26% 5% 6% Gauteng KwaZulu Natal Western Cape Other Dec 2017
Dec 2018
62% 30% 5% 3% Gauteng KwaZulu Natal Western Cape Other Dec 2017
62 Properties GLA 381,907m2 Market Value R4.0bn Weighted average capitalisation rate 10.5% Afhco also owns residential bulk of 86,040m2 to be redeveloped
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Residential 81% (Dec 2017 76%) Retail / Commercial 19% (Dec 2017 24%)
By GLA
"A": large national tenants, large listed tenants, government and major franchisees "B": national tenants, listed tenants, franchisees, large regional tenants, medium to large professional firms "C": other
54 63% 56% 55% 24% 58% 28% 28% 15% 13% 27% 9% 16% 30% 63% 15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Industrial Retail Commercial Afhco TOTAL
Per Sector
A B C 58% 27% 15%
Total Portfolio