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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Riel Miller
Head of Foresight
Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Riel Miller Head of Foresight Riel - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Riel Miller Head of Foresight Riel - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 Riel Miller Head of Foresight Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012 The Emergent Present: Repetition & Difference In an emergent present the only constant is change the change of that which repeats and that which is
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
The Emergent Present: Repetition & Difference
- In an emergent present the only constant is
change – the change of that which repeats and that which is different.
- The future only exists in the present as
- anticipation. Time and space make anticipation
an inherent attribute of all phenomena. Anticipatory systems are both animate and inanimate.
- Science as practice is a conscious approach to
constantly renegotiating the meaning of reality.
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Distinguishing different kinds of change.
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Convergence: Catch-up with the leader
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Leap-frog: From behind to being ahead
Leap-frog to where?
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Change within the system
What is the Question?Thinking about systemic change
Inside-in
Change outside the system
Inside-out Outside-in Outside-out
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Less manageab le – less clarity of goal
More reflexivity
More manageab le – more clarity of goal
Less reflexivity Greater freedom and ambiguity - spontaneity
Regime 1 (Agriculture) Regime 2 (Industrial) Regime 3 (Learning intensive society)
What is the context for the processes of CH selection?
What role for the industrial era state?
Different contexts and times?
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Living knowledge (stock) Discovery (flow) Public sector
Preservation Net new
Private sector
Preservation Net new
Non-institutional Cover it all
Source: Etienne Wegner
Knowledge creation as the constant renegotiation
- f our relationship to reality – repetition &
difference
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Stocks & Flows, Repetition & Difference, Continunity & Disruption
- What repeats?
- How does it repeat?
- Why should it repeat?
- When should it not repeat?
- Difference – why, when, where, how?
- How does difference change repetition?
- Thinking about the conditions for birth and
death – the role of conscious action?
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
“Mode 1 (knowledge production) refers
to a form of knowledge production – a complex of ideas, methods, values, norms – that has grown up to control the diffusion of the Newtonian (empirical and mathematical physics) model to more and more fields of enquiry and ensure its compliance with what is considered sound scientific practice.”
Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
“Mode 2 knowledge is carried
- ut in a context of application.
Mode 1 is disciplinary while Mode 2 is transdisciplinary. Mode 1 is characterised by homogeneity, Mode 2 by
- heterogeneity. Organisationally,
Mode 1 is hierarchical and tends to preserve its form, while Mode 2 is more heterarchical and transient.”
Gibbons et. al. The New Production of Knowledge, 1994, p. 2
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Mode 3? Changing conditions of birth & death, repetition & difference
- Unique creation
- Banal creativity
- Heterarchical wealth
- Few firms
- Few “jobs”
- Mode 1 is marginal
- Mode 2 is general but not
dominant
- We know the means, we know
the ends but what are the models that make action operational?
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Not much to be done about all of this.
Success in achieving stasis without change
Success in achieving stasis with change
Endogenous change – within system reform to maintain system conditions
Co- existenc e
Disruptive coexistenc e
Transfor mation
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Transformative policies: enabling experimentation and novelty
- Identity: Easy “Collective Me”
– Cyber-citizenship – who am I and avatars, privacy control
- Signalling: Easy sense making – new accounting
– Knowbank – a competency “bank” that identifies, validates and assists with signalling what people know how to do
- Community: Easy birth-death, entry-exit
– creating, joining, leaving “contractual” relationships – payment, credit, etc.
- Credit and Payment: Easy linking
– iCredit – money and asset infrastructure, founded on cyber- citizenship and knowbank assets for “credit worthiness”
- Trust: Easy refinement of evaluative capacities
– Collective intelligence query systems that use big data pooling to provide feedback that extends and deepens experimentation
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Conditions for selection: stock and flow
- Knowing thy self
–Creating the capacity to select
- Research governance
–Using the science of uniqueness to generate collective outcomes spontaneously
- Being part and apart
–Capacity to initiate birth, death, entry,
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Use the Future: Scientific Knowledge Creation to Identify Repetition and Difference
- Level 1 use of the future – extrapolation
reveals the systems/models of current anticipatory assumptions (e.g. STEEP trends, forecasting, etc).
- Level 2 use of the future – models of systemic
discontinuity enable re-framing and “transformation” of anticipatory assumptions.
- Level 3 use of the future – distinguish
systemic continuity and discontinuity, endogenous and exogenous systemic repetition and difference: i.e. strategic (systemically distinct) choices.
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Riel Miller, UNESCO, 2012
Thank you
Riel Miller
rielm@yahoo.com
Image: Sempe