Rethinking the value of advanced maths participation: Progress after 14 months Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins, University of Nottingham http://www.revamp-nottingham.org andrew.noyes@nottingham.ac.uk
Outline In progress February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) Future research avenues Perceived value: End user attitudes to post-16 mathematics 2 premium Political value: tracking the policy discourse surrounding the 10% 1 Chemistry degree outcomes Project rationale Academic value: The role of A level mathematics in Biology and 3 Valued by: Predicting completion of A level mathematics 2 Economic value: Wage premiums from A level mathematics at age 34 1 Major findings Working with national datasets Introduction to the work packages 2 / 41
Project Rationale The level of participation in advanced mathematics courses has been raising concerns for several years. Recent international comparisons show England to have one of the lowest levels of post-16 mathematics engagement. This, together with sustained pressure from stakeholders, has led to the Secretary of State’s call for most young people to be studying mathematics up to 18 by the end of the decade. REVAMP weaves together four strands of quantitative analysis and one qualitative policy analysis strand to understand the current and changing attitudes to, participation in, and value of A level mathematics. Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 3 / 41
REVAMP Work Packages the economic and other value discourses since Curriculum 2000? February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) choices and aspirations? mathematical study and how does it relate to their current and future WP5: What do 17 year olds think is the value of post-16 advanced WP4: How have mathematics education reports/policy/etc, taken up Research questions attainment and degree outcomes? WP3: What is the relationship between A level participation and etc? participation patterns changed; by social category, by school type, WP2: Who is doing A level Mathematics now? How have Vignoles’ findings hold in more recent datasets? WP1: Is there still a ‘return’ to A level mathematics? Do Dolton and 4 / 41
Working with national datasets Familiarisation takes time February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) Cumulative analytical choices Recoding variables Cleaning takes more time Size of datasets & computing power (HPC) Datasets: Negotiating access, security and risk management Considerations: HESA – Higher Education Statistics Agency NPD – National Pupil Database BCS - 1970 British Cohort Study NCDS - 1958 National Child Development Study 5 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic Value Background: Economic Return to Maths Discourse Liz Truss(18th September 2013), Parliamentary Under Secretary of State for Education and Childcare, argued that ”Maths, for example, is the only school subject which has been proven to add to earnings, by up to 10% at A level , even when every other factor is taken into account. tend to be earning 7% more at the paid, on average, 19% more than other professions...” (CBI talk on improving education and curriculum reform) Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 6 / 41 Pupils who are ahead of their peers in maths at age 10 age of 30 . Those working in science or technological careers are
Work Package 1: Economic Value Economic Return to Maths Discourse Nick Gibb (10th September 2014) and Nicky Morgan (10th November 2014) have continued this argument: more” (IET Skills event) ”And yet maths, as we all know, is the subject that employers value most, helping young people develop skills which are vital to almost any career. And you don’t just have to take my word for it - studies show that pupils who study maths to A level will earn 10% more over their lifetime ” (Your Life Campaign Launch). Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 7 / 41 ”Those who do Maths A level will go on to earn 10%
Work Package 1: Economic Value sample. For the 1980 graduates the size for males was 2523 and for February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) later missing case dummies only. with missing cases being initially handled via mean imputation and Modelling was via an OLS log-linear model of annual gross earnings women was 1515 respondents. 1991. Too many women had dropped out of work by age 33 with this So where does this finding come from? The final sample size consisted of 462 males who were aged 33 in 1980 National Graduate and Diplomates survey carried out in 1986. the 1974 sweep. This was further supplemented with data from the (1991), with A level data from the 1981 sweep, and ability scores from Data was from the National Child Development Survey Wave 5 following features: return of A level subjects in the mid to late 1990s. Their study had the Peter Dolton and Anna Vignoles undertook research on the economic 8 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic value Dolton and Vignoles (2002) findings[1] Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 9 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic value Dolton and Vignoles (2002) findings[2] Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 10 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic Value time of the wave 7 survey. February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) equations. missing data through the technique of multiple imputation chained power since the original study, we chose improve the handling of Multiple Imputation: Given the vast improvements in computing completed at least one A level and be in full or part-time work at the Approach in 2004. Selection criteria is that each individual must have Sample: 1457 male and female respondents born in 1970 and age 34 demographic, education, work experience and ability score predictors. (age 10) to estimate average earnings conditional on a range of education data from wave 6 (age 30) and ability scores from wave 3 Data: We used the British Cohort Study wave 7 (age 34) along with Do Dolton and Vignoles’ findings hold in more recent datasets? Research question: Is there still a ‘return’ to A level mathematics? 11 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic Value Repeat study econometric model February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) i 12 / 41 + β Managerial − Technical i ( log ) y i = α + β Female i + β Married i + β Children i 1 2 3 4 + β Skilled _ Non − Manual i + β Skilled − Manual i + β Part − Skilled i + β Unskilled i 5 6 7 8 + β Others i + β East _ Mids i + β East _ England i + β North _ East i 9 10 11 12 + β North _ West i + β South _ East i + β South _ West i + β West _ Mids i 13 14 15 16 + β Yorkshire i + β Scotland i + β Wales i + β Degree i + β NVQ i + β Prof i 17 18 19 20 21 22 + β HE _ Diploma i + β Maths & Computing i + β Science i + β Humanities i 23 24 25 26 + β Work _ Exp 2 + β Social _ science i + β Other i + β Part _ time i + β Work _ Exp i 27 28 29 30 31 + β Age 10 _ Maths i + β Age 10 _ Reading i + β Tenure i + β Unemployment i + ε i 32 33 34 35 ε i ∼ N (0 , σ 2 )
Work Package 1: Economic value Major findings[1] Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 13 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic value Major findings[2] Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 14 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic value Major findings[3] Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) REVAMP February 11, 2015 15 / 41
Work Package 1: Economic value While we have followed the original strategy, combining all science subjects February 11, 2015 REVAMP Andy Noyes & Mike Adkins (UoN) stagnation. address whether the findings still hold especially with 5-6 years of wage survey, the analysis used data which is 11 years old and there is a question to While this is substantially more up-to-date than the estimates from the 1991 5 and becomes statistically insignificant when interacted with female. The A level mathematics and computing effect size is reduced substantially 4 together may mask the effect of individual subjects. 3 Conclusions[1] non-random etc other non-random processes at work - such as subject choice being Omitted variable bias - while we have tried to control for ability, there are 2 approximately 4-22% This is an an average with a very wide confidence interval stretching from 1 However, there are a whole set of caveats to go with this: be unique when compared to other subjects. to earn on average approximately 11% more than those without, which appears to Diplomates survey, those with an A level in mathematics and computing do appear experienced by the National Child Development Survey and British Graduate and The results do suggest that while the economy is vastly different from that 16 / 41
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