Resource Circular National CGE modeling for Korean Economy: - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Resource Circular National CGE modeling for Korean Economy: Environmental Policy for Economic Performance

The 11th AI M I nternational Workshop 19-21, February 2006, Ohyama Memorial Hall, NI ES

Jae Joon Kim and Sang I n Kang Korea Environment I nstitution

Focusing…

• 1. Waste flow by sector in Korea:

Generation/Treatment/Recycling

• 2. Compilation of Recycling Waste in Flow into Economy

by Types of Waste link to Economic Activities

Content

progress of modeling work: N-CGE with

waste flow for Korea

Waste Flow in Korea Data sources for Waste Flow Compilation of Korean Waste Flow Work to do

Progress in AI M/ Material Korea

Energy specific Static model, basic data, model run, Dynamic extension With macroeconomic data I ntegration of Waste Flow Policy Analysis 2005 2006 2004

Waste Recycling Flow in Korea

Export trend of recycling good in Korea 10741 723 789 6632 3739 3051 22070 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 ton-expert value

7718 9530 2688 5600 335 4608 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 ton N-Korea China Malaisia

export of recycling goods to major countries 2003 2004

Data sources1 and problems

• 1. Trend of total waste generation and treatment in Korea

(KMOE, 2001)

• 2. Waste Statistics survey in Korea (KMOE, 2001)

conducted by KEI

• 3. Waste Recycling Statistics (Korea Resource Corporation)

Total waste generation and management data by regions and simplified waste type No industrial waste flow data = > > choose Total waste generation : T_indw

Official Publication data iii

Data sources 2 and problems

• 2. Waste Census in Korea (KMOE, 2001) conducted by KEI

I ndustrial waste generation data (KSI C) by detailed waste type I ndustrial Treatment data by waste type in unit value: kg/ person/ day But… Total Generation not equal to total management

Coef Ai = ind sec i / total industrial waste Coef bij

k = treatment method k in waste j, industry i

/ total treatment of industry i Need to calculate

I ND GEL SPE COM I n COM CONS Waste Type … … … … … … … … … … …

Generation part Treatment part

Self management Outside management I nciner ation Land fill reuse Dump to sea

• thers

Local gov firm

inciner ation Land fill reuse Dump to sea

• thers

COM I n COM

Simple structure of data source 2

Data sources 3 and problems

• 3. Waste Recycling Statistics (Korea Resource Corporation)

I ndustrial waste generation data by most disaggregated waste type Reuse and Recycling data, unit: ton/ year by KSI C- large and But… Missing industry: agriculture, forestry, mining, a lot service sectors

Coef aij = waste i in industry j/ total waste in sector j

Need to calculate

Compilation Korean Waste Flow Korea

T_indw

I nd (i) T_indw * A(i) I ndw(j) I nd(i) T_indw * A(j) * a(ij)

Treat_A Treat (k) I nd(j) I ndw(j) T_indw* A(j)* a(ij)* b(ijk)

Recycling input link with commodities and sectors in Korea

Self management By gov… Treat I nd_w recycling

Δ -

D-disposal … sectors waste B01 B02 … A02… B04… A01

Recycled waste commodity B02…

• Δ

B02 B01 A02… A01b A01a

Substitution effects -> >

A03 A02

• Δ

A01 sectors A02… A01b A01a Commodities substituted by recycling goods

Used by input factor

Future work

Fine Tuning of AIM/material Korea model

Macroeconomic data with Waste in-flow Scenarios, Policy Implications

Revision of Applied CGE modeling

Substitution and non-linearized price effect

Pricing of Material goods Elasticity of Substitution