residential where next? London Neil Chegwidden, Residential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶
residential where next london
SMART_READER_LITE
LIVE PREVIEW

residential where next? London Neil Chegwidden, Residential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Sep 25, 2023 178 likes •306 views

residential where next? London Neil Chegwidden, Residential Research, Jones Lang LaSalle Onions Londons demand layers Central London development; areas and price ranges 3 Price growth since credit crisis Source: Jones Lang

slide-1
SLIDE 1

residential – where next?

Neil Chegwidden, Residential Research, Jones Lang LaSalle

London

slide-2
SLIDE 2

Onions – London’s demand layers

slide-3
SLIDE 3

Central London development; areas and price ranges

3

slide-4
SLIDE 4

Price growth since credit crisis …

  • 20
  • 15
  • 10
  • 5

5 10 15 20

  • 8
  • 6
  • 4
  • 2

2 4 6 8 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 CLD quarterly (LHS) CLD annual (RHS) UK annual (RHS) % change a quarter % change a year

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Land Registry

slide-5
SLIDE 5

Currency adjusted Central London development prices

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 Dec 07 Mar 08 Jun 08 Sep 08 Dec 08 Mar 09 Jun 09 Sep 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Jun 10 Sep 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jun 11 Sep 11 Dec 11 Mar 12 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Sterling US dollar Euro Index

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

slide-6
SLIDE 6

2012 Nationality of Central London Buyers*

British 17% Singaporean 19% Hong Kong 18% Malaysian 15% Middle Eastern 12% Chinese 5% Russian 5% Turkish 3% Indian 2% European 2% Other 2%

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle

* Jones Lang LaSalle sales only

slide-7
SLIDE 7

UK residential is long-term outperformer!

Capital Growth

500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 Residential property Commercial property Equities

UK residential prop = 8.4 % pa UK commercial prop = 4.0 % pa UK equities = 7.0 % pa

Capital value index

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, IPD, Nationwide

slide-8
SLIDE 8

London and prime London even stronger

500 1,000 1,500 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 Prime Central London Greater London UK Capital value index

Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Nationwide

8.8% pa 7.7% pa 6.4% pa

slide-9
SLIDE 9

Issues …

9

House price bubble? The political football …

slide-10
SLIDE 10

London’s advantages

Language, legal system, track record Strong historic performance Global financial centre & education hub Safe haven Destination of choice for many HNWIs London’s growth profile Poor alternative global cities to London Restricted supply & availability Growing number of global HNWIs Strong capital growth prospects Reliable rental returns Expanding rental sector Performed better than other assets Tax efficient investment Expanding population Wealth preservation

slide-11
SLIDE 11

Final thoughts … and consequences

  • Central London residential will regain / maintain its international appeal
  • Central London price growth will be strong but not smooth – it is a sensitive

market, with no measure of fair value

  • Outlook will be a battle between stronger economics, high prices and

Government / tax interventions

  • Blurring of boundaries
  • Price implications for ‘ordinary’ Londoners
  • Supply constraints