Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

November 7, 2018

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Michael Dietze

Associate Professor Earth & Environment, CAS

Solving the Challenge of Predicting Nature

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

NEAR-TERM ITERATIVE FORECASTING IS WIN-WIN

Dietze et al 2018 PNAS

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ecoforecast.org @eco4cast

  • Build a community of practice
  • Build bridges to agencies, industry, stakeholders
  • Advance theory, tools, cyberinfrastructure, decision sci.
  • Education, training, and inclusion
  • Discover whether nature is predictable
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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Jennifer Bhatnagar

Assistant Professor, Biology, College of Arts & Sciences

Forecasting the Earth Mycobiome

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Jennifer Bhatnagar

Forecasting the Earth Mycobiome

Colin Averill Zoey Werbin Michael Dietze

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Next up:

  • Decompose each model
  • Prokaryotes
  • Temporal forecasts

Best forecasts of widespread fungi that have specific niches

Russula species

  • Dominant taxa in northern forests
  • Critical mycorrhizal partners of mature

trees

  • Specificity of most russuloid taxa to a

certain vegetation/soil type

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Mark Friedl

Professor Department of Earth and Environment, CAS

Ecosystems in Flux: Changing Seasons in an Era of Climate Change

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Abraham Matta

Professor & Chair Computer Science Department, College of Arts & Sciences

EcoForecast: A Scalable and Secure Cyberinfrastructure for the Repeatability of Ecological Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

EcoForecast: System Overview

  • Cyberinfrastructure for supporting Ecological Research
  • Develop the analyses and automation procedures to make

ecological forecasts and update these forecasts over time as new data become available

  • Researchers can “compete” using different forecast models
  • Provide state-of-the-art cloud-based infrastructure
  • User code runs as a “Function” in the cloud
  • Highly scalable and easy to manage

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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1

User submits her code, along with dependencies

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1

Orchestrator:

  • Analyze user code
  • Install code

dependencies

  • Find “best” place

for the code, e.g. Edge vs. Core

  • Determine “best”

configuration, e.g. amount of RAM

2

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1

  • Code runs as a

“Serverless” function in a containerized environment in the cloud

  • OpenWhisk

supports the creation of code “actions” that can be “triggered” based on external factors

3

2

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1

  • Function

processes data and stores results in database

  • It is faster to run

the function closer to the data source and storage

4

2

3

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1

Output of the function is sent to the user and displayed on webpage

4

5 2

3

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User’s View

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Jean Maguire van Seventer, VMD

Clinical Associate Professor Department of Environmental Health Boston University School of Public Health

Linking Climate Change to Zoonotic Pathways of Antimicrobial Resistance in Humans in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh

David Hamer, MD

Professor Department of Global Health Boston University School of Public Health

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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https://twitter.com/who/status/959023059737939968 FAO

Antimicrobial Resistance

Naser AM, et al BMJ Open 2017;7:e015205 shrimpfoundation.org

River Prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii Tiger Shrimp Penaeus monodon

Bay of Bengal

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Potential Sources and Pathways

  • f Pond Contamination with Antibiotic

Resistant Bacteria and/or Antibiotics

STEP 1: Exposure Assessment

to determine if individuals ingesting pond water, are exposed to antibiotics and/or antibiotic resistant bacteria.

STEP 2: Microbial Source Tracking

to identify specific animal source(s)

  • f antibiotic resistant bacteria.

STEP 3: Develop Interventions

to mitigate identified zoonotic pathways of exposure.

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Lucy R. Hutyra

Associate Professor Earth & Environment, College of Arts & Sciences

Humans & Our Natural World

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Across the NE US, 23% of the forest area is just 30m from an agricultural

  • r developed edge!

70% of remaining forest <1km from an edge

Smith et al. 2018 Haddad et al. 2016

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Human influences dominate our planet & the natural world – GHGs, disturbances, etc. Coupled human-natural systems are required for understanding & forecasting

Smith et al. 2018

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Understanding Ecological Change Through the Lens of Physics

Kirill Korolev

Assistant Professor, Physics, CAS

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

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Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

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Jeff Gore (MIT)

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

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Jeff Gore (MIT) Dai et al., Science 2012

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

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Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse

Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

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Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse

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Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse

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Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013 canopy removed recovery length

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Jeffrey Geddes

Assistant Professor Department of Earth & Environment (CAS) Air Quality and Biosphere-Atmosphere Interactions

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Grand Challenges in Atmospheric Chemistry How can we accurately quantify the distribution of atmospheric constituents that are most deleterious to human health? What are the important feedbacks between atmospheric chemistry and the biosphere under global change?

Geddes et al. 2016 EHP

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

How Does the Changing Biosphere Impact Air Quality?

Bios

  • sphe

here re

Sources Sink/Receptor

Urba ban n Air r Quali lity

Sources Exposure

O3 PM2.5

Abiotic stresses Land management Pests, disease, mortality Succession Land use conversion Chemistry of the Atmosphere

Geddes et al. 2016 ACP Geddes et al. 2017 ACP Geddes et al. 2018 AMT

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Joshua Semeter

Professor Electrical and Computer Engineering

Engineered Systems for Environmental Forecasting

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Sensor networks: Crowd sourcing:

1997: Deep Blue, 77 GFLOPs 2017: iPhone7, 350 GFLOPs

  • Your smartphone contains an

impressive suite of sensors, AND..

  • a processor that is 4x faster than

the best supercomputers of 1997.

  • Our devices represent a massive

“sensor network,” supported by a common infrastructure, that can be exploited for multiple objectives.

vs.

Ground-based… Space-based…

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Event, Date

Forecasting: Mathematical Framework

Adaptive filtering:

  • Non-stationary / non-linear systems.
  • Parameters of predictive model

(filter) deduced from the data.

  • Popular variant: Kalman Filter

(adjusts according to covariance

  • f the data sources).

Model Discovery via Machine Learning:

Data

  • Grounded in statistical theory
  • Regression, based on covariance
  • Ad hoc, “tried this, seems to work.”
  • Most common implementation:

Artificial Neural Networks

  • Model discovery: intriguing yet perilous

Computer Computer Output Model

Traditional Programming Machine Learning

Output Data Model

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Anthony Janetos

Director and Chair The Pardee Center and Earth and Environment, CAS A Focus on Indicators of Change and Response

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

General and Detailed Frameworks

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World

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Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here

Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Special Issue in Climatic Change

A Framework for National Climate Indicators

Melissa A. Kenney1, Anthony C. Janetos2, and Michael D. Gerst3 Affiliations: 1 University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center / Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001, College Park, MD 20740-3823, USA; kenney@umd.edu; phone: 301-405-3226; fax: 301-405-8468 2 Boston University, The Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, 67 Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215, USA; ajanetos@bu.edu; phone: 617-358-4000; fax: 617-358- 4001 3 University of Maryland, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center / Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites-Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 4001, College Park, MD 20740-3823, USA; mgerst@umd.edu; phone: 301-405-0050; fax: 301-405-8468 Kenney, M.A., Janetos, A.C. & Gerst, M.D. Climatic Change (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2307-y

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World