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Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World November 7, 2018 Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Solving the Challenge of Predicting Nature Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Michael Dietze Associate Professor Earth & Environment, CAS Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World NEAR-TERM ITERATIVE FORECASTING IS WIN-WIN Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Dietze et al 2018 PNAS Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

ecoforecast.org @eco4cast • Build a community of practice • Build bridges to agencies, industry, stakeholders • Advance theory, tools, cyberinfrastructure, decision sci. • Education, training, and inclusion • Discover whether nature is predictable

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Forecasting the Earth Mycobiome Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Jennifer Bhatnagar Assistant Professor, Biology, College of Arts & Sciences Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Forecasting the Earth Mycobiome Jennifer Bhatnagar Colin Averill Zoey Werbin Michael Dietze

Best forecasts of widespread fungi that have specific niches Russula species • Dominant taxa in northern forests • Critical mycorrhizal partners of mature trees • Specificity of most russuloid taxa to a certain vegetation/soil type Next up: • Decompose each model • Prokaryotes • Temporal forecasts

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Ecosystems in Flux: Changing Seasons in an Era of Climate Change Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Mark Friedl Professor Department of Earth and Environment, CAS Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World EcoForecast: A Scalable and Secure Cyberinfrastructure for the Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Repeatability of Ecological Research Abraham Matta Professor & Chair Computer Science Department, College of Arts & Sciences Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World EcoForecast: System Overview  Cyberinfrastructure for supporting Ecological Research Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here  Develop the analyses and automation procedures to make ecological forecasts and update these forecasts over time as new data become available  Researchers can “compete” using different forecast models  Provide state-of-the-art cloud-based infrastructure  User code runs as a “Function” in the cloud  Highly scalable and easy to manage Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

User submits her code, along with dependencies 1

Orchestrator: - Analyze user code - Install code dependencies - Find “best” place for the code, e.g. Edge vs. Core - Determine “best” configuration, e.g. amount of RAM 2 1

3 - Code runs as a “Serverless” function in a containerized environment in the cloud - OpenWhisk supports the creation of code “actions” that can be “triggered” 2 based on external factors 1

3 4 - Function processes data and stores results in 2 database - It is faster to run the function closer to the data source 1 and storage

3 4 2 5 1 Output of the function is sent to the user and displayed on webpage

User’s View

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Linking Climate Change to Zoonotic Pathways of Antimicrobial Resistance in Humans in Southwest Coastal Bangladesh Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Jean Maguire van Seventer, VMD Clinical Associate Professor Department of Environmental Health Boston University School of Public Health David Hamer, MD Professor Department of Global Health Boston University School of Public Health Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Bay of Bengal Antimicrobial Resistance River Prawn Tiger Shrimp Macrobrachium rosenbergii Penaeus monodon https://twitter.com/who/status/959023059737939968 FAO Naser AM, et al BMJ Open 2017;7:e015205 shrimpfoundation.org

Potential Sources and Pathways of Pond Contamination with Antibiotic Resistant Bacteria and/or Antibiotics STEP 1: Exposure Assessment to determine if individuals ingesting pond water, are exposed to antibiotics and/or antibiotic resistant bacteria. STEP 2: Microbial Source Tracking to identify specific animal source(s) of antibiotic resistant bacteria. STEP 3: Develop Interventions to mitigate identified zoonotic pathways of exposure.

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Humans & Our Natural World Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Lucy R. Hutyra Associate Professor Earth & Environment, College of Arts & Sciences Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Across the NE US, 23% of the forest area is just 30m from an agricultural 70% of remaining forest <1km from an edge or developed edge! Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Haddad et al. 2016 Smith et al. 2018 Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Human influences dominate our planet & the natural world – GHGs, disturbances, etc. Coupled human-natural systems are required for understanding & forecasting Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Smith et al. 2018 Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Research on Tap: Understanding and Forecasting Change in Our Natural World Understanding Ecological Change Through the Lens of Physics Kirill Korolev Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Boston University Slideshow Title Goes Here Assistant Professor, Physics, CAS Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research Boston University Office of the Vice President and Associate Provost for Research

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations Jeff Gore (MIT)

Predicting Population Collapse from Fluctuations Jeff Gore (MIT) Dai et al., Science 2012

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013

Spatial Signal of Impending Collapse recovery length Dai, Korolev, Gore, Nature 2013 canopy removed