Research on Global Climate Policies in NIES Kiyoshi Takahashi The 25 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Research on Global Climate Policies in NIES

Kiyoshi Takahashi

The 25th AIM workshop @ National Institute for Environmental Studies 20 November 2019

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Japan・ Mid/Long‐term Global・ Long‐term

Social issues confronted in Japan Sustainable development

Mitigation models for national scale analyses Mitigation and environmental models for global analyses Implication of LCS policies on other social issues Mitigation targets Theme1：Global climate policy analyses Theme2・3：Japanese mitigation policy analyses

Global scenarios consistent with Paris agreement and SDGs Domestic mitigation scenarios consistent with global scenarios

Tool development Proposition of integrated scenarios

Framework of “Integrated Analyses of Climate Policies for Simultaneous Realization of the Paris Agreement and the SDGs”

Internatio nal model comparis

• n

projects IPCC / ipbes etc Collaboration with France and Germany Various stakehold ers

2

ERTDF2‐1702 2015‐2019

持続可能な開発目標 Sustainable Development Goals

• T

Trade-off ? Co-benefit ?

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トレードオフ関係? 共便益関係 ?

貧困撲滅 飢餓ゼロ 健康・福祉 教育の質 ジェンダー平等 安全な水・ﾄｲﾚ エネルギー 雇用・経済成長 産業・技術革新 不平等の解消 持続的な街 責任ある 生産・消費 気候変動 海の豊かさ 森の豊かさ 平和と公正 ﾊﾟｰﾄﾅｰｼｯﾌﾟ

中国を対象とした2℃気候政策と複数SDGsの同時達成分析

Align climate policies with multiple SDGs in China for the 2 °C goal

4 Liu et al., Under review

• Early climate action + complementary policy

package (food subsidy and forest land rent subsidy) successfully diminished the negative side effects while maintaining the co‐benefits.

• Energy security and air pollution can have

great co‐benefits from climate actions

• Food security and land resources

experience trade‐offs.

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Economic impact of climate change: Research Framework

SSP RCP Climate

IAM （AIM/CGE）

Climate change 2℃ RCP8.5 RCP6.0 RCP4.5 RCP2.6

SSP1: Suntainability SSP2: Middle of the Road SSP3: Reginal Rivalry SSP4: Inequality SSP5: Fossil‐fueled Development

Climate model

Crop model Water model Health model

・・・

GHG emissions constraint GHG concentration Gridded population and so on Socioeconomic assumptions

Climate impact for each sector ・・・ GDP

Crop yield Water resource Number of Death

Total climate loss

Emission scenario Socioeconomic scenario

S‐14‐5 2015‐2019

Economic impact of climate change: Results: total impacts global/regional

There is a great divergence in the projected economic impact ranging from 0.4% to 8.6% of GWP at the end of the century depending on scenarios.

Takakura et al. (2019) Nature Climate Change S‐14‐5 2015‐2019

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models ・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA

(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD

・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐human system sustainability

・ESM‐IAM linked model ・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・Further understanding of tipping elements Detailed description

• f natural system

Detailed description

• f human system

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … ‐ Interaction between the systems ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near‐term period ‐ International process of stocktaking ‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development

Proposed 2021‐2025

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models ・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA

(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD

・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐human system sustainability

・ESM‐IAM linked model ・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・Further understanding of tipping elements Detailed description

• f natural system

Detailed description

• f human system

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … ‐ Interaction between the systems ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near‐term period ‐ International process of stocktaking ‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development

Proposed 2021‐2025

Global climate risks – sustainability IAM AIM/CGE Biodiversity model AIM/BIO Terrestrial ecosystem model VISIT Crop yield mode CROVER Water resource model H08 Global land‐use model AIM/PLUM Model for analyzing global emission path ACC2 & CLIM4OPT Reduced impact models （Impact emulator） Latest climate science Results of climate impact analyses Land management related constraints GHG emission Poverty Hunger Water stress Biodiversity Social system transformation

(1) Emission pathways toward long‐term climate target and subsequent climate risks (2) Mitigation strategies considering global sustaimability

Integrated scenarios for global sustainability

Multiple indicators measuring states of SD

Climate risks Mitigation cost

Year GHG

Mitigation cost Climate risks Loss of biodiversity Hunger Poverty Water stress

Year GHG

Mitigation cost Climate risks Loss of biodiversity Hunger Poverty Water stress

Year GHG

Mitigation cost Climate risks Loss of biodiversity Hunger Poverty Water stress

Zero emission Negative emission Zero emission + intervention

Global analyses of net‐zero emission mitigation and its implications for sustainable development

Proposed 2020‐2022

(1) Near‐/Mid‐ term mitigation and SD

・Mitigation analyses based on the end‐use models ・GHG pathways for 2030‐ 2050 towards the 2050 target ・Effects of climate policy on SD issues such as air pollution and natural resource management ・Evaluation of NDCs achievements under the PA

(2) Long‐term mitigation and SD

・Extended CGE model for SD indicators analyses ・GHG pathways towards the achievement of PA ・Analyses of knock‐on effects of mitigation on SD ・Climate risks under the GHG pathways and their implication to equality

(3) Long‐term analyses of earth‐human system sustainability

・ESM‐IAM linked model ・Interaction among climate, carbon cycle and human activity ・Further understanding of tipping elements Detailed description

• f natural system

Detailed description

• f human system

2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 … ‐ Interaction between the systems ‐ Tipping; Planetary boundaries ‐ Long‐term socio‐economic scenario ‐ Emission pathways toward the long‐ term climate target ‐ Assumed availability of BECCS etc. ‐ Political/technical constraints for the near‐term period ‐ International process of stocktaking ‐ Spatial socio‐economic scenarios ‐ Model modules of CGE/IAM

Global analyses of decarbonization and sustainable development

Proposed 2021‐2025

Modelling of interaction in earth‐human systems

• State‐of‐the‐art GCM is coupled to human

process models (water, crop, land use)

• Climate change ‐> impacts on water, food,

energy ‐> land use change ‐> climate change

• Large future demands (SSP3) ‐> large impacts
• n water resources and land use
• Coupling of ESM – IAM to investigate the

interactions of earth‐human systems (contributing to AIMES project in Future Earth) Climate Water use Crop

Irrigation/dam Climate Climate Cropland area

Landuse

Irrigation land

Ecosystem

Demands

Economics

Water resources Water demand GHG emission Cropland area Yield Vegetation climate NEP MIROC H08 TeLMO PRYSIBI2 VISIT AIM

MIROC‐INTEG (integrated terrestrial model), Yokohata et al. 2019 (Geosci Model Dev, in review)

SSP3 RCP85 SSP2 RCP26 Cropland area [ratio]

Ongoing 2016‐2020