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Reality Check: Using Market Analysis to Illuminate Nonresidential Lighting Opportunities
Jessica Aiona, Flux Resources for Bonneville Power Administration Laura Tabor, Navigant Kate Bushman, Cadeo
market perspective
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Reality Check: Using Market Analysis to Illuminate Nonresidential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Reality Check: Using Market Analysis to Illuminate Nonresidential - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Reality Check: Using Market Analysis to Illuminate Nonresidential Lighting Opportunities Jessica Aiona, Flux Resources for Bonneville Power Administration Laura Tabor, Navigant Kate Bushman, Cadeo 1 market perspective 2 How much has the
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How much has the market already transformed? How quickly has this change happened?
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How much potential remains? Where can programs still be effective?
Non- residential lighting
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total market model
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All Lamps and Fixtures in Major Non-Residential Applications Stock Turnover Approach Six Year Savings Horizon With Forecast
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connecting numerous data sources
Market intelligence from interviews and literature reviews Sales data from 34 distributors Regional stock data, national tech specs
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decreasing consumption & increasing growth
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Annual Lighting Consumption, aMW Fixtures Installed, Thousands Total Fixture Stock Annual Lighting Consumption
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better linear fluorescents
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LED Luminaire TLED T5 T8 T12
Ambient Linear Installed Fixture Mix
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HID in decline
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LED T5 T8 T12 HID
High/Low Bay Installed Fixture Mix
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more LED
Building Exterior Installed Fixture Mix
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LED T8 CFL T12 Incandescent and Halogen HID
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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LED CFL Halogen Incandescent
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more LED
General Purpose Installed Fixture Mix
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- Outdoor lighting
- Screw-in applications
- Commercial sector
- Ambient Linear
- High and Low Bay
- Industrial sector
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where is the LED action?
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Highlight decorative and vintage LED options for customer-facing spaces with high lighting turnover
target aesthetic turnover
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Build relationships with industrial customers to spur conversion when the right moment arrives
be there at decision time
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Find ways to support market actors switching to lighting design strategy business models
think long term
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total market modeling in other regions update programs to respond to market changes more frequent stock assessments integrating efficiency trends into load forecasting additional research on lifetime and turnover characteristics
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how can you help?
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Jessica Aiona jlaiona@bpa.gov Laura Tabor laura.tabor@navigant.com Kate Bushman kbushman@cadeogroup.com
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