Reproduction of storms over the North Sea and the Baltic with the - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Reproduction of storms over the North Sea and the Baltic with the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6

Natacha Fery1, Birger Tinz1 and Lydia Gates1

1 Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hamburg, Germany

EXTREMENESS

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 „EXTREME North sEa Storm Surges

and their consequences“

 EXTREMENESS aims at identifying

extreme events that are highly unlikely but still physically possible and plausible and which may cause extreme damages or have extreme consequences (so called „black swans“)

 Analysis of wind fields inducing

storm surges in atmospheric data [EXTREMENESS-B] https://www.hzg.de/ms/extremeness/index.php.de

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de https://www.hzg.de/ms/extremeness/index.php.de LKN, Schleswig-Holstein

Regional atmospheric reanalysis COSMO-REA6

 Product of the Deutscher Wetterdienst and the University

• f Bonn

 Results of previous validation work with COSMO-REA6:



Inter-comparison of COSMO-REA6 and global reanalyses (ERA20C, ERA-Interim) near-surface wind fields: higher correlations found with COSMO-REA6 over land (Kaiser-Weiss et al., 2015)



COSMO-REA6 mean wind fields close to the measurements and to global atmospheric reanalyses ERA20C and ERA-Interim between 10 and 116 m height (Borsche et al., 2016)

 Here, focus on storms in the North and Baltic Seas

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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COSMO-REA6 1995-2015 1 h 0.055° 6x6 km FF, DD, PS Regional EURO-Cordex domain 2D and 3D Bollmeyer et al. (2012)

Atmospheric observations – FINO123

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 Description

FINO1 [North Sea] 2004-2015 10 min FINO2 [Baltic Sea] 2007-2015 10 min FINO3 [North Sea] 2009-2015 10 min

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Atmospheric observations – FINO123

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 Mast corrections for wind speeds

180° 0° 90° 270°

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

• - FINO1 142°
• - FINO2 180°
• - FINO3 105°,225°,345°

Example: FINO1 during storm Xaver (12.2013)

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 Different types of storms are considered  Analysis of wind speed, wind direction and pressure at mean sea level  Several heights are considered at the FINO platforms (10 m and 100 m)  Research questions: (1) How does COSMO-REA6 perform against observations during those storms? (2) What is the added value of regional reanalysis on global reanalysis during strong wind

events?

Britta 11.2006 Xaver 12.2013 Kyrill 01.2007 Tilo 11.2007 Christian 10.2013

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Winter storms over the North and the Baltic Seas

Source: DWD

Validation against independent observations

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 Example for the wind speed [FF] at 10 m and 100 m at FINO1

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

12.2013 10.2013 11.2006 01.2007 11.2007

FF [m/s] FF [m/s] FF [m/s] FF [m/s]

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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20CRv2c 1851-2016 6 h 2° FF10M, DD, PMSL Gobal, NOAA 56 ensembles Compo et al. (2011) ERA-Interim 1979-today 6 h 0.75° FF10M, DD, PMSL Global, ECMWF Dee et al. (2011)

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

20CRv2c 1851-2016 6 h 2° FF10M, DD, PMSL Gobal, NOAA 56 ensembles Compo et al. (2011) 20CRv2c 1851-2016 6 h 2° FF10M, DD, PMSL Gobal, NOAA 56 ensembles Compo et al. (2011) ERA-Interim 1979-today 6 h 0.75° FF10M, DD, PMSL Global, ECMWF Dee et al. (2011) ERA5 2008-2017 1 h 0.25° FF10M, DD, PMSL Global, ECMWF 10 ensembles Copernicus Climate Change Service Information (2018)

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

 October 2013 (Christian)

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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Wind speed [m/s] Mean sea level pressure [hPa] COSMO-REA6 ERA5 ERAInterim 20CRv2c

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

 December 2013 (Xaver)

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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Wind speed [m/s] Mean sea level pressure [hPa] COSMO-REA6 ERA5 ERAInterim 20CRv2c

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

Background Data Methods First results Summary

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

10.2013 - Christian FINO 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 1 2 3

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

Background Data Methods First results Summary

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

10.2013 - Christian FINO 1 FINO 2 FINO 3

Background Data Methods First results Summary

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

10.2013 - Xaver

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

FINO 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 1 2 3

Background Data Methods First results Summary

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

10.2013 - Xaver

Comparison against global atmospheric reanalyses

FINO 1 FINO 2 FINO 3 1 2 3

Summary

Background Data Methods First results Summary

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 Use of raw and mast corrected wind and pressure observations at different

heights for validation of the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 over sea

 Proven effect of the mast on the observations for given wind directions  COSMO-REA6 could reproduce well 5 historical storms in North and Baltic

Seas

 The regional reanalysis performs better than the global reanalyses  Global reanalyses capture well only the large scaled and long lasting storms  The new high resolution global reanalysis ERA5 is still not able to reproduce

strong and short lasting storms

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Thank you for your attention

Picture B. Tinz (22.10.2014)

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

ISRR 2018, 17-19.07.2018, Bonn, natacha.fery@dwd.de

Bollmeyer, C., J. D. Keller, C. Ohlwein, S. Wahl, S. Crewell, P. Friederichs, A. Hense, J. Keune, S. Kneifel, I. Pscheidt, S. Redl, and S. Steinke. 2015. 'Towards a high-resolution regional reanalysis for the European CORDEX domain', Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 141: 1-15. Borsche, Michael, Andrea K. Kaiser-Weiss, and Frank Kaspar. 2016. 'Wind speed variability between 10 and 116 m height from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 compared to wind mast measurements over Northern Germany and the Netherlands', Advances in Sciences and Research, 13: 151-61. Compo, G. P., J. S. Whitaker, P. D. Sardeshmukh, N. Matsui, R. J. Allan, X. Yin, Jr. B. E. Gleason, R. S. Vose, G. Rutledge, P. Bessemoulin, S. Brönnimann, M. Brunet, R. I. Crouthanel, A. N. Grant, P.Y. Groisman, P. D. Jones, M. C. Kruk, A. C. Kruger, G. J. Marshall, M. Maugeri, H. Y. Mok, Ø. Nordli, T. F. Ross, R. M. Trigo, X. L. Wang, S. D. Woodruff, and S. J. Worley. 2011. 'The twentieth Century Reanalysis Project', Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137: 1-28. Dee, D. P., S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M.A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A.C.M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J.Geer, L. Haimberger, S.B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E.V. Holm, L. Isaksen, P.Kallberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A.P. McNally, B.M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K.Park, C. Peubey, P. deRosnay, C.Tavolato, J.-N. Thépaut, and F. Vitart. 2011. 'The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system', Quaterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 137. Kaiser-Weiss, A. K., F. Kaspar, V. Heene, M. Borsche, D. G. H. Tan, P. Poli, A. Obregon, and H. Gregow. 2015. 'Comparison of regional and global reanalysis near-surface winds with station observations over Germany', Advances in Science and Research, 12: 187-98.

Literature