Reconstructing Sakhalin Taimen ( Hucho perryi Hucho perryi ) ) - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Reconstructing Sakhalin Taimen ( Hucho perryi Hucho perryi ) ) Reconstructing Sakhalin Taimen ( Historical Distribution and Identifying Causes Historical Distribution and Identifying Causes for Their Local Extinction for Their Local Extinction

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Reconstructing Sakhalin Taimen ( Reconstructing Sakhalin Taimen (Hucho perryi Hucho perryi) ) Historical Distribution and Identifying Causes Historical Distribution and Identifying Causes for Their Local Extinction for Their Local Extinction

Michio FUKUSHIMA,

National Inst. Environ. Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan

Hiroto SHIMAZAKI,

NIES

Pete S. RAND,

Wild Salmon Center, Portland, Oregon, USA

Masahide KAERIYAMA,

Hokkaido University

IUCN World Conservation Congress, Barcelona 2008

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INTRODUCTION

Sakhalin taimen (Hucho perryi) Regionally anadromous Iteroparous Russian Far East and Japan Maximum record >130 cm, >21 kg Least studied salmonid Critically Endangered,

IUCN SSG (2006)

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SLIDE 3
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Local Extinction of Sakhalin Taimen Subpopulations 1 Subpopulation = 1 River

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Collaborative Research by US, Russian and Japanese Scientists in Hokkaido, Japan

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Also in Far Eastern Russia …

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OBJECTIVES

  • 1. To model and reconstruct historical distribution
  • f Sakhalin taimen based on observed presence

and absence data by river basin

  • 2. To model causes for local extinction of Sakhalin

taimen subpopulations in Japan

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Modelling Historical Distribution

  • f Sakhalin taimen
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Historical Records of Sakhalin Taimen Occurrence

250 500 125 KM

Sapporo K h a b a r

  • v

s k Vladivostok

CONTINELTAL RUSSIAN FAR EAST SAKHALIN

K U R I L I S L A N D S HOKKAIDO

HONSHU

J A P A N

S e a

  • f

J a p a n Sea of Okhotsk

Tatar Strait Amur River

Taimen absent or unknown Taimen present

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Taimen Records by Region and River Basin

Occurrence Sakhalin CRFE Japan Kurils Total Present 110 20 46 6 182 Absent 93 640 794 1527 Unknown 177 218 303 86 784 Total 380 878 1143 92 2493

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1) Drainage Area

Lagoon_ Area LGN_ A 0 - 2 3 - 8 9 - 20 21 - 45 46 - 72 73 - 151 152 - 211 212 - 451

E20 E20

0 - 10 11 - 32 33 - 65 66 - 116 117 - 200 201 - 368 369 - 652 653 - 2339

Mean_Elevation E_ mean

  • 1 - 83
84 - 164 165 - 246 247 - 337 338 - 441 442 - 579 580 - 831 832 - 1528

2) Mean Elevation 5) Air Temperature 3) Area < 20 m a.s.l. 6) Precipitation

Basin_area AREA_ SQKM

12 - 384 385 - 1340 1341 - 2896 2897 - 5718 5719 - 10579 10580 - 19404 19405 - 33171 33172 - 60971

4) Lagoon Area

Air_ temp Tmp

  • 7.3 - -1.7
  • 1.6 - 1.9
2.0 - 5.1 5.2 - 7.8 7.9 - 10.5 10.6 - 13.0 13.1 - 15.0 15.1 - 19.1

Precipitation Pre

46.05 - 57.35 57.36 - 68.63 68.64 - 82.74 82.75 - 99.90 99.91 - 122.50 122.51 - 151.79 151.80 - 183.89 183.90 - 237.70
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7) Spatial Autocorrelation

∑

− =

=

1 1 n j j ij i

y w autocor

ij ij

l w 1 =

⎭ ⎬ ⎫ ⎩ ⎨ ⎧ = 1

j

y

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Historical Taimen Distribution Model

Spatial Autocorrelation < 0.010 YES NO 1709 (182) 1393 (4) 316 (178)

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Historical Taimen Distribution Model

Spatial Autocorrelation < 0.010 Drainage Area < 949 km2 Drainage Area < 87 km2 1709 (182) 1298 (0) 95 (4) 117 (34) 199 (144)

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Historical Taimen Distribution Model

Spatial Autocorrelation < 0.010 Drainage Area < 949 km2 Drainage Area < 87 km2 Elevation < 131 m

Air Temperature < 0.7 C

Precipitation < 96 mm

Precipitation < 54 mm P=0.622 P=0.821

1298 (0) 95 (4) 9 (0) 37 (23) 71 (11) 9 (2) 162 (133) 28 (9) 1709 (182)

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Observation Prediction

0.00 - 0.05 0.06 - 0.16 0.17 - 0.23 0.24 - 0.33 0.34 - 0.63 0.64 - 0.83

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Modelling Local Extinction of Sakhalin taimen Subpopulations in Japan

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Status of Sakhalin Taimen Subpopulations in Japan Extant subpopulations (12) Extinct subpopulations (36)

vs.

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Possible Factors Explaining Extinctions

Drainage area Air temperature Precipitation Elevation Percent lowland Presence of lagoons etc. Number of dams Human population Number of alien species Presence of rainbow trout Deforestation Agricultural development

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Classification Tree

Air Temperature < 5.2 C 48 (12)

YES NO

17 (0) 31 (12)

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Classification Tree

Air Temperature < 5.2 C Elevation < 82 m 48 (12)

YES NO

17 (0) 8 (7) 23 (5)

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Classification Tree

Air Temperature < 5.2 C Elevation < 82 m Farmland < 21 % Percent Area Below 20 m < 13 % 48 (12)

YES NO

17 (0) 8 (7) 5 (3) 13 (0) 5 (2)

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Farmland Distribution and 5 ºC Air Temperature Contour

Farmland 5 ºC Contour

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Classification Tree

Air Temperature < 5.2 C Elevation < 82 m Farmland < 21 % Percent Area Below 20 m < 13 % 48 (12)

YES NO

17 (0) Regional-scale agricultural development is minimal Watershed-scale agricultural development 8 (7) 5 (3) 13 (0) 5 (2)

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Agricultural development Channelization, bank revetment, and construction of dams and weirs Destruction of taimen habitats

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CONCLUSIONS

1) Sakhalin taimen tend to occur contagiously and are more likely to occur in larger drainages. 2) The species might have had wider distribution in the past, especially in the northern part of Japan.

Historical Distribution

1) Agricultural development was an important cause for the Sakhalin taimen local extinction, 2) Extant subpopulations tended to survive in drainages with lower elevations (perhaps due to more wetland habitats).

Local Extinction

This technique – Spatially Explicit Modeling - may be applied to red list assessments for other species (e.g. Hucho taimen).

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Thank you!