REBOUND EFFECT FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT AND ENERGY SERVICES IN THE UK - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
REBOUND EFFECT FOR PRIVATE TRANSPORT AND ENERGY SERVICES IN THE UK IAEE European Conference, Vienna, September 3-6, 2017 Mona Chitnis (University of Surrey) Roger Fouquet (LSE) Steve Sorrell (University of Sussex) Outline Rebound
Mona Chitnis (University of Surrey) Roger Fouquet (LSE) Steve Sorrell (University of Sussex) IAEE European Conference, Vienna, September 3-6, 2017
Lower running cost for heating Lower heating cost and fuel bills Lighting
Less emissions More emissions
Higher room temperature or leaving the heating on for longer
More or less emissions
Energy Price (e.g. pence per kWh) Data Sources (e.g. BEIS, ONS) Energy Service Price (e.g. £ per lumen-hour) Energy Efficiency (e.g. lumen-hours per kWh) Energy Service Consumption (e.g. millions of lumen-hours) Energy Consumption (e.g. TWh for lighting)
E S
E S
pE
E
5
6
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Electronics & computing (1964=100) Lighting, Heating, Wet & cold, Cooking, Car (1964=100) Lighting Heating Wet & cold appliances Cooking Car transport Electronics & computing
7
Real price of energy services (index, 1964=100) Real price of energy for services (index, 1964=100)
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Electronics & computing ( 1964=100) Lighting, Heating, We & cold, Cooking, Car (1964=100)
Lighting Heating Cooking Electronics & computing Wet & cold appliances Car transport
60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200
Lighting and Appliances, Cooking, Heating, Car (1964=100)
Lighting and Appliances Cooking Heating Car transport
Consumption of energy services per equivalised person (index, 1964=100)
8
Energy consumption per equivalised person (index, 1964=100)
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Electronics & computing (1964=100) Lighting, Heating, Wet & cold, Cooking, Car (1964=100)
Lighting Wet & cold appliances Cooking Heating Car transport Electronics & computing 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Electronics & computing (1964=100) Lighting, Wet & cold, Cooking, Heating, Car (1964=100) Lighting Wet & cold appliances Heating Cooking Car transport Electronics & computing
S S
p ) s i ( i i p
where:
s s i i
w u w u
x x i
Direct Indirect
: own-price elasticity of service s : cross-price elasticity of service i with respect to service s ui: CO2 intensity of service i us: CO2 intensity of service s wi: budget share of service i ws: budget share of service s
) s (
S
p
) i (
S
p
Household expenditure Energy services Lighting Heating Wet and cold appliances Electronics and computing Cooking Transport Car Other transport Other goods and services
Stage 1 Stage 2
where: wr=budget share of category r Pz=price of category z x=total expenditure per equivalised person P=Laspeyres-like price index Adding up: Symmetry: Homogeneity:
r rz r rz r r r r
, , , 1
t r z z rz z t t r zt ij r rt
t w ) P / x ln( p ln w
t
1
r rz
rz rz
r, z: 1, 2, 3
r rt r L t
p ln w P ln
Stage 1:
t i r j j ij r j rt rt i jt ij i r it
t w ) P / x ln( p ln w
t
1
i it L rt
p ln w P ln
i
Stage 2: i, j: 1, …, 4
where: wi=budget share of service i Pj=price of service j xr=total expenditure on services per equivalised person Pr=Laspeyres-like price index
1 ij i ij i i i i
, , , 1
ij ij
i ij
r i ) r ( i
E E E
] e [ w E e e
) z )( r ( rz j ) z ( i ) r ( ij ) r ( rz ij
Within group elasticities: Total/between group elasticities:
r r r
w E 1
rz r z r rz rz
w w e Income elasticity Uncompensated price elasticity Income elasticity Uncompensated price elasticity
rs
: Kronecker’s delta
equal to one when r=s and zero elsewhere.
UK household annual time series data 1964-2015 Iterative Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (ISUR) method for system estimation ■ Combined elasticities of stages 1 and 2 to obtain total price and expenditure elasticities for each energy and transport service (Edgerton 1997).
Lighting Heating Wet & cold appliances Electronics & computing Cooking Car Expenditure elasticity 0.96 1.29 1.10 0.99 0.81 0.89
Total expenditure elasticities for energy services
Price elasticity Lighting Heating Wet & cold appliances Electronics & computing Cooking Car Lighting
0.381 0.088 0.059 0.036
Heating 0.040
0.065 0.031 0.044
Wet & cold appliances 0.050 0.343
0.044 0.049
Electronics & computing 0.061 0.438 0.098
0.064
Cooking 0.037 0.382 0.084 0.048
Car
Total price elasticities for energy services
Lighting Heating Wet & cold appliances Electronics & computing Cooking Car Lighting 93.6%
1.8% Heating
69.6%
1.4% Wet & cold appliances
92.2%
1.8% Electronics & computing
93.9%
2.0% Cooking
91.7% 1.9% Car 0.7% 9.7% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 54.2%
Rebound effects between energy and transport services Direct, indirect and total rebound effects for energy and transport services
Direct rebound Indirect rebound (energy and transport services only) Total rebound Lighting 93.6%
39.31% Heating 69.6%
53.68% Wet & cold appliances 92.2%
38.92% Electronics & computing 94.0%
39.40% Cooking 91.7%
33.91% Car 54.2% 13.1% 67.26%
neglected
the AIDS model
Mona Chitnis (University of Surrey) Roger Fouquet (LSE) Steve Sorrell (University of Sussex) IAEE European Conference, Vienna, September 3-6, 2017