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Rebound Effects Digitalization and the Rebound Effect - Seminar - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Oct 26, 2023 327 likes •751 views

Rebound Effects Digitalization and the Rebound Effect - Seminar HS2019 Martin Blapp Greenhouse gas abatement potential for Switzerland in 2025 Hilty, University of Zurich Research Report, 2017 2 Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How

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Rebound Effects

Martin Blapp Digitalization and the Rebound Effect - Seminar HS2019

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Greenhouse gas abatement potential for Switzerland in 2025

Hilty, University of Zurich Research Report, 2017

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Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How to estimate Energy Efficiency Digitalization

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Jevons’ Paradox

Jevons observed in 1865: Some assumed improving technology would reduce coal consumption

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If efficiency of coal usage increases, coal consumption will increase, not decrease.

Alcott, Ecological Economics, 2005

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Jevons’ Paradox

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Watt steam engine ( ~1775) Savery steam engine ( 1702)

https://fotolibra.com https://wikipedia.org/

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Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How to estimate Energy Efficiency Digitalization

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Rebound Effect

"... the rebound effect describes increases in resource or energy efficiency that do not result in corresponding decrease in energy or resource use"

Binswanger, Ecological Economics, 2001

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Rebound Effect

  • Zero rebound (RE = 0)
  • Partial rebound (0 < RE < 1)
  • Full rebound (RE = 1)
  • Backfire (RE > 1)

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More efficient car engine

  • Drive more
  • More gasoline cars produced
  • New inventions using oil
  • Spend money on other things
  • New engines need a lot of energy to build
  • Buy bigger cars
  • “Cruising around” becomes popular

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Increasing demand due to lower price

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Cost to manufacture efficiency improvement

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Cost savings used to purchase

  • ther goods
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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Cheaper manufacture used by producers to increase output

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Cheaper energy encourages energy consumption and investments

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Rebound Effects

Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

Economy Wide Effect

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Sum of direct and indirect effects

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More efficient car engine

  • Drive more
  • More gas-cars produced
  • New inventions using oil
  • Spend money on other things
  • New engines need a lot of

energy to build

  • Buy bigger cars
  • “Cruising around”

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Direct Rebound Effect Indirect Rebound Effects

  • Embodied energy cost
  • Income effects
  • Output effects
  • Market effects

➔ Direct rebound ➔ Output effects ➔ Market effects ➔ Income effect ➔ Embodied energy C. ➔ Direct? / Market? ➔ ?

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Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How to estimate Energy Efficiency Digitalization

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Scope

Time frame: E.g. 5 year study or 30 year study System boundary: E.g. household, sector or national economy

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Direct Rebound Effect

  • Empirical estimates through data sets
  • Economic Models

For example: Single-Sector Studies

  • One service
  • One input resource considered
  • Assumes reversibility of investment possible

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Sorrell,UK Energy Research Centre Report, 2007

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Indirect and Economy Wide Rebound

  • Difficult to measure empirically
  • Complex economic models

For example: Multi-Sector Studies

  • Can additionally model substitution (i.e. train vs car usage)
  • Choice of methodology and scope are important

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Sorrell,UK Energy Research Centre Report, 2007

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Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How to estimate Energy Efficiency Digitalization

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Energy Efficiency

Energy efficiency has been an important part of environmental strategy

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Binswanger, Ecological Economics, 2001

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Price Quantity of Product Supply Demand P Q

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Price Quantity of Product Supply Demand P Q

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Price Quantity of Product Supply Demand P Q P_new Q_new

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Price Quantity of Product Supply Demand P Q P_new Q_new

Direct Rebound

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What if we assume, an efficiency improvement has no rebound?

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Price Quantity of Product Supply P Q

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Price Quantity of Product Supply P Q

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Price Quantity of Product Supply P Q P_new

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Price Quantity of Product Supply P Q P_new Demand

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Results

  • “For most consumer energy services in OECD countries, direct

rebound effects are unlikely to exceed 30% “

  • “There are relatively few quantitative estimates of indirect and

economy-wide rebound effects, but several studies suggest that economy-wide effects may exceed 50% “

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Sorrell,UK Energy Research Centre Report, 2007

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General Purpose Technologies

Three characteristics:

  • Pervasiveness
  • Improvement
  • Innovation spawning

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Bresnahan & Trajtenberg, Journal of Econometrics, 1995

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General Purpose Technologies

General Purpose Technologies (GPT):

  • Steam engines
  • Electricity
  • Information technology

=> Higher Rebound / Backfire

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Non GPT:

  • House insulation
  • More efficient car wheels
  • More efficient dishwasher

designs => Lower Rebound

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Historical Perspective The Rebound Effect How to estimate Energy Efficiency Digitalization

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Rebound in Digitalization

  • If a person prints all emails => Rematerialisation
  • People want all their music available all the time => Changed practices
  • If a person orders almost daily from an online shop => Induction

And more...

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Rivera et al, Environmental Modelling & Software, 2014

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Time Rebound

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Time Rebound

Time-saving innovations => Lower time cost But Time Rebound => Higher usage Additionally:

  • Often more energy needed (or less?)
  • Time used for other energy intensive activities

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Binswanger, Ecological Economics, 2001

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Summary

  • Rebound effect is real

○ Difficult to estimate

  • General Purpose Technologies have higher rebound
  • Digitalization

○ New rebounds types

  • Time Rebound important

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