Efficiency and Growth T. Gutowski 2.83 and 2.813 1 Efficiency and - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Efficiency and Growth T. Gutowski 2.83 and 2.813 1

Efficiency and Growth • Can efficiency improvements out run growth? • Historical review of 10 activities including materials and electricity production and consumer services (Dahmus & Gutowski) • Can demand saturate? (Tsao paper on Lighting) • How to change your lifestyle (ELSA paper) 2

Eco-Efficiency goods and services e = environmen tal load • assigns responsibility • allows comparisons • attempts to balance economy with environment • many examples from company reports 3

Total Resources used depends upon efficiency and growth Consider Q = Quantity of useful output (e.g. kg of pig iron…) R = Resources used to produce Q (e.g. kg. coal, kWh of electricity etc.) R 1 R Q Q = ! = ! Q e Q e (a type of efficiency , eco efficiency ) = ! R 4

For small increments ! R R = ! Q Q ! e e If ! e e > ! Q Q then ! R R < 0 efficiency = conservation 5

from historical data, however generally ! e e > 0 and ! Q Q > 0 but ! Q Q > ! e e so ! R R > 0 efficiency ≠ conservation 6

Readings • “ Efficiency, Production, and Resource Consumption: A Historical Review of Ten Industrial Activities ” Dahmus, J. and T. Gutowski, 2008 • “ Does Energy Efficiency Save Energy: The Economists Debate ” , Herring, H. 1998 7

• Why does “ Q ” grow? – Markets grow – more customers – wealthier customers • Why does “ e ” grow? – to reduce cost – new technology in addition⋯ 8

Interactions between terms +Learning and Economies of Scale ± “ Capacity Effects ” ! R R = ! Q Q ! e e +Rebound Effects: Substitution and Income Effects 9

Efficiency and Growth * Activity Dates Boundary Quantity Resource Pig-Iron 1800-1990 World kg pig iron Joules of coke Aluminum 1900-2005 World kg aluminum Joule of elect ricity Nitrogen 1915-2000 World kg Nitrogen Joule energy Fertilizer Electricity 1920-2007 US Joule electricity kg coal from coal Electricity 1920-2007 US Joule electricity Liter of oil from Oil m 3 of Electricity 1920-2007 US Joule electric ity from Natural natural gas gas Freight Rail 1960-2006 US Revenue tonne - km Liter fuel Air Travel 1960-2005 US Seat -km Liter fuel Motor vehicle 1936-2006 US Vehicle – km Liter fuel Refrigeration 1960-2002 US Hours refrigeration Joule electricity * Dahmus and Gutowski, 2008 10

Energy Efficiency in Pig Iron Production Worldwide Energy Efficiency of Pig Iron Production 60 50 . Efficiency of Pig Iron Production (kg produced per GJ of energy used) . 40 30 Efficiency 20 10 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 11

Steam engine Efficiency after Smil, 1999 12

Energy Efficiency in Pig Iron Production Worldwide Energy Efficiency of Pig Iron Production 60 B Fe = 0.33 ! p = 50 . B Fe 2 O 3 + B energy Efficiency of Pig Iron Production (kg produced per GJ of energy used) . 40 30 Efficiency 20 10 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 13

FIGURE 1: Pig Iron Production ( Q ) and the Efficiency of Pig Iron Smelting ( e ) (World) a 90 900 80 800 improvement 30:1 70 700 production 90:1 60 600 50 500 40 400 30 300 20 Efficiency 200 Quantity 10 100 0 0 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year 14

FIGURE 2: Primary Aluminum Production ( Q ) and the e ) (World) b Efficiency of Aluminum Smelting ( 20 35 improvement 4:1 30 15 production 32:1 25 Efficiency 20 10 15 10 5 Quantity 5 0 0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 15

FIGURE 3: Nitrogen Fertilizer Production ( Q ) and the Efficiency of the Haber -Bosch Process ( e ) (World) c 35 100 30 improvement 4:1 80 production 36:1 25 60 20 Efficiency 15 40 10 Quantity 20 5 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 16

FIGURE 4: Electricity Generation from Coal ( Q ) and the e ) (US) d Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Coal ( 10 7000 9 8 6000 7 Efficiency 5000 6 4000 5 4 3000 3 Quantity 2000 2 1000 1 1970 CAA 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 17

FIGURE 5: Electricity Generation from Oil ( Q ) and the e ) (US) d Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Oil ( 14 1400 12 1200 Efficiency 10 1000 8 800 6 600 4 400 Quantity 2 200 1970 CAA, 1978 PPIFA 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 18

FIGURE 6: Electricity Generation from Natural Gas ( Q ) and the e ) (US) d Efficiency of Electricity Generation from Natural Gas ( 16 3500 14 3000 12 2500 10 Efficiency 2000 8 1500 6 1000 4 Quantity 500 2 1987 NGUA 0 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 19

FIGURE 7: Freight Rail Travel ( Q ) and the e Efficiency of Freight Rail Travel ( e ) (US Class I Railroads) 180 2800 160 2400 140 2000 120 Efficiency 1600 100 Quantity 80 1200 60 800 40 400 20 1980 SRA 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 20

FIGURE 8: Passenger Air Travel ( Q ) and the Efficiency of Passenger Air Travel ( e ) (US airlines) f 24 1800 1600 20 1400 16 1200 Efficiency 1000 12 800 8 600 Quantity 400 4 200 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 21

FIGURE 9: Motor Vehicle Travel ( Q ) and the Efficiency of Motor Vehicle Travel ( e ) (US) g 8 5000 7 4000 6 Efficiency 5 3000 4 2000 3 Quantity 2 1000 1 0 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 22

FIGURE 10: Refrigeration ( Q ) and the ( e ) (US) h Efficiency of Refrigeration 1400 5 1200 4 1000 Quantity 800 3 600 Efficiency 2 400 1 200 0 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 23

Average annual ΔQ/Q versus average annual Δe/e for ten activities. 10% Aluminum Electricity - Natural Gas ! Q Q > ! e Nitrogen Fertilizer e 8% Passenger Air Travel Electricity - Oil 6% Electricity - Coal Pig Iron 4% Motor Vehicle Travel Refrigeration Freight Rail Travel 2% 0% -1% 0% 1% 2% Average Annual _ e/e 24

Table 1: Average annual Δ e/e , average annual Δ Q/Q , and the ratio of the two for ten activities over different time periods. In these activities, increases in quantity outpace improvements in efficiency by factors ranging from 1.2 to 11.0. Average Average Average _Q/Q / Activity Time Period Annual _e/e Annual _Q/Q Average _e/e Pig Iron 1800-1990 1.4% 4.1% 3.0 Aluminum 1900-2005 1.2% 9.8% 7.9 Nitrogen Fertilizer 1920-2000 1.0% 8.8% 8.9 Electricity from Coal 1920-2007 1.3% 5.7% 4.5 from Oil 1920-2007 1.5% 6.2% 4.2 from Natural Gas 1920-2007 1.8% 9.6% 5.5 Freight Rail Travel 1960-2006 2.0% 2.5% 1.2 Passenger Air Travel 1960-2007 1.3% 6.3% 4.9 Motor Vehicle Travel 1940-2006 0.3% 3.8% 11.0 Refrigeration 1960-2006 -0.4% 2.5% --- 25

FIGURE A2: Resources Consumed ( R ) in Primary Aluminum Production (World) b 1.6 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 26

FIGURE A3: Resources Consumed ( R ) in Nitrogen Fertilizer Production (World) c 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year 27

FIGURE A4: Resources Consumed ( R ) in Electricity Generation from Coal (US data) d 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 28

FIGURE A9: Resources Consumed ( R ) in g Motor Vehicle Travel (US data) 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year 29

Stanley Jevons, 1865 “ ..it is a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth. ” The Rebound Effect or “ Jevons Paradox ” 30

However, • Example when efficiency outpaced production (or consumption) – pig iron 1970 – 1989 – freight rail travel 1980 – 1989 – passenger air almost 1970 – 1979 and 2000 – 2007 – passenger autos came close 1980 - 1989 – refrigeration 1990 - 2006 31

Decade by Decade Analysis Average Average Industrial Activity Time Period Annual _e/e Annual _P/P Freight Rail Travel 1960-2000 2.0% 2.5% 1960-1969 1.7% 3.0% 1970-1979 1.3% 1.8% 1980-1989 3.7% 1.4% 1990-1999 1.9% 3.6% 2000-2005 1.2% 2.9% Passenger Air Travel 1960-2005 1.3% 6.5% 1960-1969 -1.6% 15.6% 1970-1979 4.7% 5.3% 1980-1989 1.4% 5.2% 1990-1999 0.6% 3.0% 2000-2005 1.8% 1.6% 32

Decade by Decade Analysis Average Average Industrial Activity Time Period Annual _e/e Annual _P/P Refrigeration 1960-2000 -0.9% 2.5% 1960-1969 -5.9% 3.6% 1970-1979 -4.9% 2.8% 1980-1989 1.9% 2.2% 1990-1999 4.6% 1.7% Motor Vehicle Travel 1936-2005 0.3% 3.9% 1940-1949 -0.5% 5.3% 1950-1959 -0.5% 5.2% 1960-1969 -0.3% 4.3% 1970-1979 0.4% 3.8% 1980-1989 2.4% 3.2% 1990-1999 0.5% 2.5% 2000-2005 0.5% 1.8% 33