How Analysts Can Use BEA Statistics to Gather Economic Intelligence Brian C. Moyer, Director August 17, 2016
BEA’s Statistical Products National Accounts : Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Income, Corporate Profits International Accounts : Balance of Payments Accounts, Trade in Goods and Services, Foreign Direct Investment Industry Accounts : Input-Output Accounts, GDP by Industry, Travel and Tourism Accounts Regional Accounts : GDP by State Accounts, State and Local Area Personal Income, PCE by State 2 8/17/2016
Importance of BEA’s Products • Economic analysis • Businesses • Households • Research • Monetary policy • Fiscal policy • State and local planning and allocation of funds 3 8/17/2016
Uses in Fiscal Policy [Funded Programs Are Shown in Millions of Dollars] BEA Regional Income & Product Account Estimates Used to Distribute $366.5 Billion in Federal Funds, FY2014 [Funded Programs Are Shown in Millions of Dollars] Sources : Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, 2015 President’s Budget, Appalachian Regional Commission, Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Education, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Homeland Security, 4 Department of Interior. 8/17/2016
Quarterly GDP by Industry • Quarterly statistics provide a more timely snapshot of how individual industries are faring and contributing to overall U.S. economic growth • Provide a better barometer for turning points in the U.S. economy 5 8/17/2016
Quarterly GDP by State 6 8/17/2016
Regional Price Parities 7 8/17/2016
Arts and Cultural Production 8 8/17/2016
Big Data • Goal is to integrate nontraditional, near-real- time data to enhance BEA’s statistics • Looking to big data to: • Fill data gaps • Expand the geographic detail of our statistics • Facilitate passive data collection to improve the timelines and accuracy of our source data 9 8/17/2016
Health Care Satellite Account 10 8/17/2016
Health Care Survey Data Only 130 Circulatory system Musculoskeletal system 120 Nervous system Neoplasms Price Index (2009=100) 110 Endocrine Respiratory 100 90 80 70 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 11 8/17/2016
Health Care Survey Data + “Big Data” 130 Circulatory system Musculoskeletal system 120 Nervous system Neoplasms 110 Price Index (2009=100) Endocrine Respiratory 100 90 80 70 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 12 8/17/2016
Consumer Spending by State 13 8/17/2016
Credit Card Data for Consumer Spending 14 8/17/2016
Current Issue: Revisions to GDP 15 8/17/2016
Accelerating Source Data for Early GDP Estimates • Collaborating with the Census Bureau to accelerate key data sources for GDP: • Accelerated Census foreign trade in goods data (July 2015) • Accelerated Census business inventory data (July 2016) • Early vintage Census quarterly services data (preliminary results expected early 2017) • Expanding the use of “big data” to fill data gaps 16 8/17/2016
Current Issue: Seasonal Adjustment BEA’s Three -Phase Plan to Enhance Its Seasonal Adjustment Approach Phase 2 Phase 1 Phase 3 Begin seasonally Conduct component-by- Work with data partners adjusting series used to component review to to remove residual calculate GDP that had identify causes of seasonality in historical not been previoulsy residual seasonality in series and produce not adjusted (e.g. Census GDP and GDI. seasonally adjusted QSS data) estimates of GDP and Status : major components. Status: Report released in June Incorporated in July 2016 on bea.gov. Status: 2015. To be released as part of the 2018 comprehensive update of the NIPAs 17 8/17/2016
Looking forward… • Working with the Department of the Interior to explore the impact of outdoor recreation activities on the economy through an Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account • Developing new statistics on the health of small businesses through a Small Business Satellite Account • Exploring methods and source data to begin regular production of GDP by county statistics 18 8/17/2016
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