How Analysts Can Use BEA Statistics to Gather Economic Intelligence - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

▶

May 24, 2023 332 likes •525 views

How Analysts Can Use BEA Statistics to Gather Economic Intelligence Brian C. Moyer, Director August 17, 2016 BEAs Statistical Products National Accounts : Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Income, Corporate Profits International

SLIDE 1

How Analysts Can Use BEA Statistics to Gather Economic Intelligence

Brian C. Moyer, Director

August 17, 2016

SLIDE 2

BEA’s Statistical Products

National Accounts: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Personal Income, Corporate Profits International Accounts: Balance of Payments Accounts, Trade in Goods and Services, Foreign Direct Investment Industry Accounts: Input-Output Accounts, GDP by Industry, Travel and Tourism Accounts Regional Accounts: GDP by State Accounts, State and Local Area Personal Income, PCE by State

8/17/2016 2

SLIDE 3

Importance of BEA’s Products

Economic analysis
Businesses
Households
Research
Monetary policy
Fiscal policy
State and local planning and allocation of

funds

8/17/2016 3

SLIDE 4

[Funded Programs Are Shown in Millions of Dollars]

Sources: Catalog of Federal Domestic Assistance, 2015 President’s Budget, Appalachian Regional Commission, Department of Agriculture, Department of Commerce, Department of Education, Department of Health and Human Services, Department of Homeland Security, Department of Interior.

BEA Regional Income & Product Account Estimates Used to Distribute $366.5 Billion in Federal Funds, FY2014

Uses in Fiscal Policy

[Funded Programs Are Shown in Millions of Dollars]

8/17/2016 4

SLIDE 5

Quarterly GDP by Industry

8/17/2016 5

Quarterly statistics provide

a more timely snapshot of how individual industries are faring and contributing to overall U.S. economic growth

Provide a better barometer

for turning points in the U.S. economy

SLIDE 6

Quarterly GDP by State

8/17/2016 6

SLIDE 7

Regional Price Parities

8/17/2016 7

SLIDE 8

Arts and Cultural Production

8/17/2016 8

SLIDE 9

Big Data

Goal is to integrate nontraditional, near-real-

time data to enhance BEA’s statistics

Looking to big data to:
Fill data gaps
Expand the geographic detail of our statistics
Facilitate passive data collection to improve the

timelines and accuracy of our source data

8/17/2016 9

SLIDE 10

Health Care Satellite Account

8/17/2016 10

SLIDE 11

Health Care Survey Data Only

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Price Index (2009=100)

Circulatory system Musculoskeletal system Nervous system Neoplasms Endocrine Respiratory

8/17/2016 11

SLIDE 12

Health Care Survey Data + “Big Data”

60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Price Index (2009=100)

Circulatory system Musculoskeletal system Nervous system Neoplasms Endocrine Respiratory

8/17/2016 12

SLIDE 13

Consumer Spending by State

8/17/2016 13

SLIDE 14

Credit Card Data for Consumer Spending

8/17/2016 14

SLIDE 15

Current Issue: Revisions to GDP

8/17/2016 15

SLIDE 16

Accelerating Source Data for Early GDP Estimates

Collaborating with the Census Bureau to

accelerate key data sources for GDP:

Accelerated Census foreign trade in goods data

(July 2015)

Accelerated Census business inventory data (July

2016)

Early vintage Census quarterly services data

(preliminary results expected early 2017)

Expanding the use of “big data” to fill data

gaps

8/17/2016 16

SLIDE 17

Current Issue: Seasonal Adjustment

8/17/2016 17

BEA’s Three-Phase Plan to Enhance Its Seasonal Adjustment Approach

Begin seasonally adjusting series used to calculate GDP that had not been previoulsy adjusted (e.g. Census QSS data) Status: Incorporated in July 2015. Conduct component-by- component review to identify causes of residual seasonality in GDP and GDI. Status: Report released in June 2016 on bea.gov. Work with data partners to remove residual seasonality in historical series and produce not seasonally adjusted estimates of GDP and major components. Status: To be released as part of the 2018 comprehensive update of the NIPAs

Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3

SLIDE 18

Looking forward…

Working with the Department of the Interior to

explore the impact of outdoor recreation activities on the economy through an Outdoor Recreation Satellite Account

Developing new statistics on the health of

small businesses through a Small Business Satellite Account

Exploring methods and source data to begin

regular production of GDP by county statistics

8/17/2016 18