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SLIDE 1

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❲♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥ ❡✛❡❝ts ✐♥ ❛♥ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞

❲♦r❦s❤♦♣ ■❘❉❊❙

❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✶✵

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥ The 2010 IRDES Workshop on Applied Health Economics and Policy Evaluation 24-25 June 2010 – Paris – France www.irdes.fr/Workshop2010

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SLIDE 2

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

✶ ■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ✷ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ✸ ●❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❆r❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✏✈♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥✑ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❄

✹ ❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts

✺ ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

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SLIDE 3

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❱♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥s ✫ s♠♦❦✐♥❣✿ ❝♦rr❡❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦r ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t② ❄

❆❧♦♥❣ ♣♦s✐t✐✈❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ♦♥ ♣❛ss✐✈❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣✱ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥s ❝r❡❞✐t❡❞ ❢♦r ❛ ❞r♦♣ ✐♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡✳ ▼❡t❛✲❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❢♦✉♥❞ t❤❛t t❤❡② r❡❞✉❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❜② ✸✳✽ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♣♦✐♥ts ✭❋✐❝❤t❡♥❜❡r❣ ❛♥❞

  • ❧❛♥t③✱ ✷✵✵✷✮✳

❇✉t t❤♦s❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r ♦♥❧② ✈♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥s ✐✳❡✳ ❜❛♥s ✈♦❧✉♥t❛r✐❧② ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡❞ ✐♥ ♦♥❡ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ ❜✉t ♥♦t ✐♥ ♦t❤❡rs✳ ❂❃ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ✐ss✉❡s✿ s✐♠♣❧❡ ♣♦❧✐t✐❝❛❧ ❡❝♦♥♦♠② ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❛t✐♦♥s s✉❣❣❡st t❤❛t ❜❛♥s ❛r❡ ♠♦st ❧✐❦❡❧② t♦ ❜❡ ♣❛ss❡❞ ✐♥ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡s ✇✐t❤ ❛ s♠❛❧❧ ♣r♦♣♦rt✐♦♥ ♦❢ s♠♦❦❡rs✳ ❛ss♦rt❛t✐✈❡ ♠❛t❝❤✐♥❣ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ✜r♠s ❛♥❞ ✇♦r❦❡rs✳ ❙♦♠❡ ❛tt❡♠♣ts t♦ ❝✐r❝✉♠✈❡♥t s✉❝❤ ✐ss✉❡s✳ ❊✈❛♥s ❡t ❛❧✳ ✭✶✾✾✾✮ ✉s❡ ❝♦♠♣❛♥② s✐③❡ ❛s ❛♥ ■❱ ❢♦r s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ❡①♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ✐♥str✉♠❡♥t ✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥❛❜❧❡✿ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❡s ✐♥ ❧❛r❣❡r ✜r♠s ❞✐✛❡r ❢r♦♠ t❤♦s❡ ✐♥ s♠❛❧❧❡r ♦♥❡s✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

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SLIDE 4

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

▼✐①❡❞ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡ ❢r♦♠ ❝♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② ❜❛♥s st✉❞✐❡s

❈♦♠♣✉❧s♦r② ❜❛♥ ✭✐✳❡✳ ❜❛♥ ✐♠♣♦s❡❞ ❧❡❣❛❧❧②✮ ✐s ❡①♦❣❡♥♦✉s✱ ✐♥s♦❢❛r ❛s ✐t ✐s ♥♦t ❛♥t✐❝✐♣❛t❡❞ ❛♥❞ t❤❛t ✜r♠ ❝♦♠♣❧✐❛♥❝❡ t♦ t❤❡ r❡❣✉❧❛t♦r② ❝❤❛♥❣❡ ✐s ❤✐❣❤✳ ❘❡❝❡♥t ♠❡t❛✲❛♥❛❧②s✐s ✭❈❛❧❧✐♥❛♥ ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✶✵✮ ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✶✺ st✉❞✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r✐♥❣ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ ❧❡❣✐s❧❛t✐✈❡ ❜❛♥s ♦♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣✳ ▼✐①❡❞ ❡✈✐❞❡♥❝❡✿ ✾ st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦✉♥❞ ❛ s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t❧② ♥❡❣❛t✐✈❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❡✐t❤❡r ♦♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡✱ ❞❛✐❧② ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s s♠♦❦❡❞ ♦r q✉✐t ❛tt❡♠♣ts✳ ✻ st✉❞✐❡s ❢♦✉♥❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ♠♦st ♦❢ t❤❡♠ s✉✛❡r ❢r♦♠ ✈❛r✐♦✉s ❧✐♠✐t❛t✐♦♥s✿ ▼❛❥♦r✐t② ♦❢ t❤❡s❡ st✉❞✐❡s ❝♦♥s✐❞❡r❡❞ ❝♦♠♣r❡❤❡♥s✐✈❡ ❜❛♥s ✭❜❛♥s ✐♥ ❛❧❧ ♣✉❜❧✐❝ ♣❧❛❝❡s✮ ❂❃ ✐♠♣♦ss✐❜❧❡ t♦ ❛ttr✐❜✉t❡ ✇❤❛t ✐s s♣❡❝✐✜❝❛❧❧② ❞✉❡ t♦ t❤❡ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ ❜❛♥✳ ❆❧❧ ♦❢ t❤❡♠ ❛r❡ ❜❡❢♦r❡✲❛❢t❡r st✉❞✐❡s ❜✉t ❢❡✇ ❤❛❞ ❛ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ❣r♦✉♣✱ ❛♥❞ ❢❡✇ ❝♦♥tr♦❧❧❡❞ ❢♦r ♣r❡✲❡①✐st✐♥❣ t❡♠♣♦r❛❧ tr❡♥❞s ✐♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

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SLIDE 5

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥

✶✾✾✶✲✶✾✾✷✿ ❧♦✐ ❊✈✐♥✳ ❊♠♣❧♦②❡rs ♠✉st ❜❛♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❝♦❧❧❡❝t✐✈❡ ❛r❡❛s ✭♠❡❡t✐♥❣ r♦♦♠s✳✳✳✮ ✫ s❡t ✉♣ s♦♠❡ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❛r❡❛s ✇❤❡r❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ✐s ❛❧❧♦✇❡❞✳ ▲❛✇ ❢r❡q✉❡♥t❧② ✈✐♦❧❛t❡❞ ❡s♣❡❝✐❛❧❧② ❜② ❤❡❛✈② s♠♦❦❡rs ✭❍❡❛❧t❤ ❇❛r♦♠❡t❡r ✶✾✾✺✲✶✾✾✻✮✳ ✶✺t❤ ♦❢ ◆♦✈❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✵✻✿ ❞é❝r❡t ❇❡rtr❛♥❞ ♣r♦♠✉❧❣❛t❡❞✳ ❊♠♣❧♦②❡rs ♠✉st ❜❛♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❢r♦♠ ❛❧❧ ❛r❡❛s ✐♥ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡s✱ ❛♥❞ ♥♦ ❧♦♥❣❡r ♦❜❧✐❣❡❞ t♦ s❡t ✉♣ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ ❛r❡❛s ✇❤❡r❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ✐s ❛❧❧♦✇❡❞✳ ■❢ t❤❡② ✇❛♥t t♦ ❞♦ s♦✱ t❤♦s❡ ❛r❡❛s ♠✉st r❡s♣❡❝t s❡✈❡r❛❧ r❡str✐❝t✐✈❡ ❝r✐t❡r✐❛ ✭❛✉t♦♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② ❝❧♦s✐♥❣ ❞♦♦rs✳✳✳✮ ❂❃ ❝♦st❧② t♦ ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t✳ ❆♣♣❧✐❝❛❜❧❡ s✐♥❝❡ ✶st ♦❢ ❋❡❜r✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✳ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥ ❂ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❡①♣❡r✐♠❡♥t✳ ❈❧❡❛r ❝✉t♦✛ ❞❛t❡ ❛♥❞ ❛ ♥❛t✉r❛❧ ❝♦♥tr♦❧ ❣r♦✉♣ ✭t❤❡ ♥♦♥ ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥✮✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ r❡♠❛✐♥❡❞ ✉♥❛✛❡❝t❡❞ ❜② t❤❡ ❧❛✇ ❂❃ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ✐♥ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡s ✭❉■❉✮ ❡st✐♠❛t✐♦♥ str❛t❡❣②✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

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SLIDE 6

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❉✐❞ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❝❤❛♥❣❡ s♦♠❡t❤✐♥❣ ❄

✪ ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ s♠♦❦❡ ❢r❡❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t r♦s❡ ❢r♦♠ ✹✹✪ t♦ ✽✷✪ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ❏❛♥✉❛r② ❛♥❞ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼✿

✪ ♦❢ ✇♦r❦❡rs ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ s♠♦❦❡ ❢r❡❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t

All patients P-value (N vs. N- 1) Office work P-value (N vs. N- 1) Health sector P-value (N vs. N- 1) Other type

  • f job

P-value (N vs. N- 1) January 2007 44.4% 54.4% 46.2% 35.2% February 2007 73.0% 0.00 78.6% 0.00 71.8% 0.00 67.0% 0.00 March 2007 81.5% 0.00 87.6% 0.00 84.1% 0.00 75.5% 0.00 April 2007 80.8% 0.73 87.7% 0.48 85.9% 0.31 73.4% 0.87 May 2007 81.6% 0.26 89.5% 0.13 87.1% 0.28 74.3% 0.33 June 2007 81.7% 0.48 89.6% 0.46 88.7% 0.34 73.6% 0.63 N 12810 5432 1018 6199

✪ ❛❧r❡❛❞② ❤✐❣❤ ✐♥ ❏❛♥✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✳ ❋✐r♠s ✐♠♣❧❡♠❡♥t❡❞ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❜❡t✇❡❡♥ ◆♦✈❡♠❜❡r ❛♥❞ ❏❛♥✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✱ ♦r ❛ ❧♦♥❣ t✐♠❡ ❛❣♦ ❄ ◆♦ ❞❛t❛ ❛✈❛✐❧❛❜❧❡ t♦ ❛♥s✇❡r t❤✐s q✉❡st✐♦♥✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-7
SLIDE 7

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❍❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ✐♠♣❛❝ts ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ✐♥ ❛♥ ❤❡t❡r♦❣❡♥♦✉s ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s♠♦❦❡rs

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ s✉r✈❡② ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ✭❊❙P❙ s✉r✈❡②✮✿ t❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦

✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡✳ ❲❡ ❛❧s♦ ✐♥✈❡st✐❣❛t❡ t❤❡ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ✐♥ ❛ s♣❡❝✐✜❝ s✉❜s❡t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ s♠♦❦❡rs✿ t❤♦s❡ ❝♦♥s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ✭❤❛r❞❝♦r❡ ❛❞❞✐❝ts✿ ✸✼✪ ♦❢ t❤❡♠ s✉✛❡r ❢r♦♠ t♦❜❛❝❝♦ r❡❧❛t❡❞ ❞✐s❡❛s❡s ❛♥❞ t❤❡② s♠♦❦❡ ✷✶ ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s ♣❡r ❞❛② ♦♥ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡✮✳ ❙tr♦♥❣ ✐♠♣❛❝t✿ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ❝♦♥s✉❧t✐♥❣ t❤♦s❡ ❝❡♥t❡rs ❜② ✸✵✪ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts ❜② ✶✽✪✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-8
SLIDE 8

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡

❉❛t❛

✻ ✇❛✈❡s ✭✶✾✾✽ t♦ ✷✵✵✽✮ ♦❢ ❊❙P❙ s✉r✈❡② ❝❛rr✐❡❞ ♦✉t ❡✈❡r② t✇♦ ②❡❛rs ❜② ■❘❉❊❙✱ ❢♦❝✉s✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✷✵✵✻ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✽ ✇❛✈❡s✳ ❊❛❝❤ ✇❛✈❡ ❂ ✽ ✵✵✵ ❤♦✉s❡❤♦❧❞s ✭∼ ✷✷ ✵✵✵ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s✮ r❛♥❞♦♠❧② ❞r❛✇♥ ❢r♦♠ ❛❞♠✐♥✐str❛t✐✈❡ ✜❧❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♠❛✐♥ s✐❝❦♥❡ss ❢✉♥❞s t♦ ✇❤✐❝❤ ♦✈❡r ✾✵✪ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❧✐✈✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❋r❛♥❝❡ ❜❡❧♦♥❣ ✭❆❧❧♦♥✐❡r ❡t ❛❧✳✱ ✷✵✵✽✮✳ ✹✷ ✵✽✹ ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ✐♥t❡r✈✐❡✇❡❞ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✻ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✽✳ ❙❛♠♣❧❡ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥✿

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-9
SLIDE 9

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡

❉❡s❝r✐♣t✐✈❡ st❛t✐st✐❝s

Descriptive statistics ESPS 2006-2008 Whole sample Employed respondents Retired respondents DID: 2006 vs. 2008 & employed vs. retired (1) (2) (3) 2006 2008 P-value 2006 2008 P-value 2006 2008 P-value DID P-value Socio demographic profile % males 44.1% 43.6% 0.50 43.8% 42.6% 0.31 51.7% 50.9% 0.51

  • 0.3%

0.81 Age 48.3 49.8 0.00 40.7 41.5 0.00 70.5 70.5 0.93 0.75 0.06 % with higher education 34.7% 29.4% 0.00 54.0% 52.0% 0.10 13.3% 13.5% 0.82

  • 2.2%

0.19 Income per consumption unit (def OCDE) 1523€ 1604€ 0.00 1784€ 1845€ 0.00 1425€ 1554€ 0.00

  • 68€

0.06 % of households who own their homes 22.1% 21.8% 0.62 36.4% 36.4% 0.94 5.1% 4.9% 0.76 0.3% 0.86 % married 56.3% 57.4% 0.15 62.4% 62.3% 0.90 72.9% 71.7% 0.30 1.1% 0.56 Employment status Employed 41.2% 40.8% 0.60 Retired 31.0% 34.7% 0.00 Unemployed 4.2% 3.5% 0.03 Inactive 9.8% 8.7% 0.01 Student 13.8% 12.3% 0.00 N 8504 8049 3502 3282 2634 2792

▼♦r❡ r❡t✐r❡❞ ❛♥❞ ❧❡ss st✉❞❡♥ts ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥♦♥ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞ ❣r♦✉♣ ✐♥ ✷✵✵✽✳ P❧❛❝❡❜♦ ❉■❉ ♦♥ ♦❜s❡r✈❛❜❧❡ ❝❤❛r❛❝t❡r✐st✐❝s ✈❛❧✐❞❛t❡ ♦✉r ❉■❉ ❛♣♣r♦❛❝❤✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-10
SLIDE 10

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡

❉■❉ ♦♥ ✪ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❛♥❞ ❞❛✐❧② ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s s♠♦❦❡❞

Control group: non working respondents

Smoking Status Daily Cigarettes smoked No Controls Controls1 No Controls Controls1 (1) (2) (3) (4) Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Diff-in-Diff 0.028* 0.04 0.022 0.10

  • 0.425

0.47

  • 0.515

0.35 R-squared 0.020 0.104 0.001 0.128 N 16553 16546 3285 3284

Control group: retired respondents

Smoking Status Daily Cigarettes smoked No Controls Controls1 No Controls Controls1 (5) (6) (7) (8) Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Diff-in-Diff 0.014 0.34 0.014 0.31

  • 1.146

0.22

  • 1.262

0.16 R-squared 0.051 0.104 0.007 0.100 N 12210 12205 2288 2287

Control group: inactive respondents

Smoking Status Daily Cigarettes smoked No Controls Controls1 No Controls Controls1 (9) (10) (11) (12) Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Diff-in-Diff 0.005 0.85 0.015 0.52 0.487 0.61 0.633 0.53 R-squared 0.001 0.076 0.026 0.113 N 8322 8317 2181 2180

Control group: students respondents

Smoking Status Daily Cigarettes smoked No Controls Controls1 No Controls Controls1 (13) (14) (15) (16) Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Coeff. P-value2 Diff-in-Diff 0.022 0.28 0.031 0.12

  • 0.507

0.42

  • 0.107

0.87 R-squared 0.009 0.063 0.037 0.126 N 8948 8941 2191 2190

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-11
SLIDE 11

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❚❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❜❛♥ ❤❛❞ ♥♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦♥ ♦✈❡r❛❧❧ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡

❚❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ tr❡♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥

  • 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 annee

Employed Retired Inactive Students Non working population

Smoking prevalence ESPS

  • r❛♣❤✐❝❛❧ ✐♠♣r❡ss✐♦♥ ❝♦♥✜r♠❡❞ st❛t✐st✐❝❛❧❧②✿ tr❡♥❞s ✐♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡

♣r❡✈✐♦✉s t♦ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❂ ♠♦r❡ ♦r ❧❡ss t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ✭♦♥❧② ✶ ♣❧❛❝❡❜♦ ❉■❉ ✴ ✶✻ ✐s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t✮✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-12
SLIDE 12

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❆r❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✏✈♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥✑ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❄

❉❛t❛

❲❡ ✉s❡ ❛ ❞❛t❛ s❡t ❝♦❧❧❡❝t❡❞ ❜② ✶✹✽ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ♦❝❝✉♣❛t✐♦♥❛❧ ❤❡❛❧t❤ ❞♦❝t♦rs ✉♥❞❡r t❤❡ ❝♦♦r❞✐♥❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❖✣❝❡ ❢♦r t❤❡ Pr❡✈❡♥t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❚♦❜❛❝❝♦ ✭❖❋❚✮✳ ❋r♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛r② t♦ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼✱ ❞♦❝t♦rs ❛s❦❡❞ t❤❡ ✷✵ ✜rst ♣❛t✐❡♥ts t❤❡② ❝♦♥s✉❧t❡❞ ❡❛❝❤ ♠♦♥t❤ t♦ ✜❧❧ ✐♥ ❛ s❤♦rt q✉❡st✐♦♥♥❛✐r❡✿ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥♥❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡✐r ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ ❄ ❝✉rr❡♥t s♠♦❦✐♥❣ st❛t✉s ❛❣❡✱ s❡① ❛♥❞ ❛ r♦✉❣❤ ❝❧❛ss✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ t❤❡✐r ♦❝❝✉♣❛t✐♦♥ ✐♥ ✜✈❡ ❝❛t❡❣♦r✐❡s ✇❛s ❛❧s♦ ❝♦❧❧❡❝t❡❞ ❙❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ✶✷ ✽✶✵ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-13
SLIDE 13

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ❆r❡ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❢r♦♠ t❤❡ ✏✈♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥✑ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❄

❘❡s✉❧ts

✹✹✪ ♦❢ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❡s ❛❧r❡❛❞② ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ s♠♦❦❡ ❢r❡❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t ✐♥ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✼✳ ❏❛♥ ✷✵✵✼ ❜❛♥s ❂ ✏✈♦❧✉♥t❛r②✑ ✭❧❡❣❛❧ ❝✉t✲♦✛ ❞❛t❡ ❛♥t✐❝✐♣❛t❡❞ ❜② ❛t ❧❡❛st ♦♥❡ ♠♦♥t❤✮✳ ■♥ ❏❛♥✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✱ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡ ❂ ✶✶✳✾ ♣♦✐♥ts ❧♦✇❡r ✐♥ ✜r♠s ✇✐t❤ ❛ ❜❛♥ t❤❛♥ ✐♥ ✜r♠s ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❛ ❜❛♥ ✭P✲✈❛❧✉❡❂✵✳✵✵✮✳ ❋r♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛r② t♦ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼✱ ✸✼✳✸ ♣♦✐♥ts ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♦❢ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❡s ✇♦r❦✐♥❣ ✐♥ ❛ s♠♦❦❡ ❢r❡❡ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t✳ ❙❤♦✉❧❞ r❡s✉❧t ✐♥ ❛ ✵✳✸✼✸Ö ✵✳✶✶✾ ❂ ✹✳✹ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♣♦✐♥ts ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡✳ ❚❤✐s ✐s ♥♦t ✇❤❛t ❤❛♣♣❡♥❡❞ ❂❃ ✏✈♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥✑ ❡st✐♠❛t❡s ❛r❡ ❜✐❛s❡❞✳

  • 0.00

0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 Jan-2007 Feb-2007 Mar-2007 Apr-2007 May-2007 Jun-2007

Month

Whole sample Office work Health Sector Other

Smoking prevalence occupational doctors survey ❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-14
SLIDE 14

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❚❤❡ ❈❉❚ ♣r♦❣r❛♠

❉❛t❛ ❜❛s❡ ♦❢ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ✇❤✐❝❤ ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛t❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ✏❈♦♥s✉❧t❛t✐♦♥ ❉é♣❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❚❛❜❛❣✐q✉❡✑ ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ✭r❡❢❡rr❡❞ t♦ ❛s ❈❉❚✮ ❉✉r✐♥❣ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts✬ ✜rst ✈✐s✐t✱ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ st❛t✉s ❡✈❛❧✉❛t❡❞ ❛❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦✿ ❞❛✐❧② ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s s♠♦❦❡❞ ❋❛❣❡rströ♠ ❚❡st ❢♦r ◆✐❝♦t✐♥❡ ❉❡♣❡♥❞❡♥❝❡ ❬❋❚◆❉❪ ❊①♣✐r❡❞ ❝❛r❜♦♥ ♠♦♥♦①✐❞❡ ✭❈❖✮ ✇❤✐❝❤ ✐s ❛ ❜✐♦♠❛r❦❡r ❢♦r t♦❜❛❝❝♦ ✉s❡✳ ❍♦s♣✐t❛❧ ❆♥①✐❡t② ❉❡♣r❡ss✐♦♥ ✭❍❆❉✮ s❝❛❧❡✱ s❝♦r❡❞ ❢r♦♠ ✵ t♦ ✷✶✱ ✐s ✉s❡❞ t♦ ✐❞❡♥t✐❢② ✐♥❞✐✈✐❞✉❛❧s ✇✐t❤ ❛♥①✐♦✲❞❡♣r❡ss✐✈❡ ❞✐s♦r❞❡rs✱ ✇✐t❤ ❛ t❤r❡s❤♦❧❞ s❝♦r❡ ♦❢ ✶✶ ✭❩✐❣♠♦♥❞ ❛♥❞ ❙♥❛✐t❤✱ ✶✾✽✸✮✳ ❆t t❤❡ ❡♥❞ ♦❢ t❤✐s ✜rst ✈✐s✐t✱ tr❡❛t♠❡♥ts ♠❛② ❜❡ ♣r❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ t♦ t❤❡ ♣❛t✐❡♥t ✭♥✐❝♦t✐♥❡ r❡♣❧❛❝❡♠❡♥t t❤❡r❛♣✐❡s✱ ❜✉♣r♦♣✐♦♥✱ ✈❛r❡♥✐❝❧✐♥❡✱ ❝♦❣♥✐t✐✈❡ ❛♥❞ ❜❡❤❛✈✐♦r❛❧ t❤❡r❛♣✐❡s✳ ✳ ✳ ✮✳ ❋♦❧❧♦✇✲✉♣ ✈✐s✐ts ❛r❡ ♦✛❡r❡❞✳ ❙✉♣♣❧❡♠❡♥t❛r② ❈❖ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ❛r❡ ✉s✉❛❧❧② ♠❛❞❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ t❤♦s❡ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✲✉♣ ✈✐s✐ts t♦ ✈❛❧✐❞❛t❡ t♦❜❛❝❝♦ ❛❜st✐♥❡♥❝❡✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-15
SLIDE 15

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❈❉❚ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ❛r❡ ❤❛r❞❝♦r❡ ❛❞❞✐❝ts

Whole sample Selected sample4 Not Employed Employed P-value Not Employed Employed P-value % Males 45% 45% 0.72 47% 44% 0.03 Age 43.94 40.95 0.00 48.16 41.85 0.00 % with no degree 24% 12% 0.00 22% 11% 0.00 Daily cigarettes smoked 22.06 20.95 0.00 22.57 21.10 0.00 FTND1 6.02 5.66 0.00 6.16 5.80 0.00 % with AHAD2>=11 45% 38% 0.00 46% 40% 0.00 % with DHAD3>=11 17% 9% 0.00 18% 9% 0.00 % employed 0% 100% . 0% 100% . N 6490 13778 1479 3389

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-16
SLIDE 16

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts

❉❛t❛ ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞s

❚✐♠❡ s❡r✐❡s ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts r❡❝♦r❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❞❛t❛ ❜❛s❡ ♣❡r ♠♦♥t❤ ❢r♦♠ ❏❛♥✉❛r② ✷✵✵✹ t♦ ❉❡❝❡♠❜❡r ✷✵✵✽✳ ✷✾ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ✐♥❝❧✉❞❡❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ✭❝r✐t❡r✐♦♥✿ ❝♦♥t✐♥✉♦✉s ♣❛rt✐❝✐♣❛t✐♦♥ t♦ t❤❡ ♣r♦❣r❛♠ ♦✈❡r t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞✱ t♦ ❛✈♦✐❞ t❤❛t ✢✉❝t✉❛t✐♦♥s ✐♥ ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ❛r❡ ❞✉❡ t♦ ♦♣❡♥✐♥❣ ♦r ❝❧♦s✐♥❣ ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ❝❡♥t❡rs✮✳ ❉❡♣❡♥❞❛♥t ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ✐s ❩t = ❨t

❨ − ❳t ❳ ✇❤❡r❡ ❳t ❂ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ♥♦♥

❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ❝♦♥s✉❧t✐♥❣ ❛ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❝❡♥t❡r ✐♥ ♠♦♥t❤ t✱ ❨t ❂ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ ✜❣✉r❡ ❢♦r ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts✱ ❳ ❛♥❞ ❨ ❛r❡ t❤❡ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞✐♥❣ ❛✈❡r❛❣❡s ✭♥♦r♠❛❧✐③❡rs✮✳ ❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥✿ ❩t = α + β✶{t∈❇❛♥} + εt✱ ✇❤❡r❡ ✶{t∈❇❛♥} ✐s ❛ ❞✉♠♠② ✈❛r✐❛❜❧❡ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ ✶ ❢r♦♠ ❖❝t♦❜❡r ✷✵✵✻ t♦ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼ ✭❛r♦✉♥❞ t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥✮✳ ❂❃ β ✐s ❛ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ❜② ✇❤✐❝❤ ❨t ❞❡♣❛rt❡❞ ♦❢ ✐ts ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ ❧❡✈❡❧ ♦✈❡r t❤❡ ♣❡r✐♦❞ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ✇✐t❤ r❡s♣❡❝t ♠✐♥✉s t❤❡ s❛♠❡ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ❢♦r ❳t✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-17
SLIDE 17

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts

  • r❛♣❤✐❝❛❧ r❡s✉❧ts

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-18
SLIDE 18

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts

❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts

❘❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ r❡s✉❧ts✿ β = ✵.✸✱ P✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❂ ✵✳✵✵✳ ❂❃ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❡♥t❛✐❧❡❞ ❛ r✐s❡ ❜② ✸✵✪ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ♥❡✇ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts ❛tt❡♥❞✐♥❣ t❤♦s❡ s❡r✈✐❝❡s ❢r♦♠ ❖❝t♦❜❡r ✷✵✵✻ t♦ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼✳ ❲❡ s♣❧✐t ♦✉r s❛♠♣❧❡ ♦❢ ✷✾ ❝❡♥t❡rs ✐♥t♦ t✇♦ ❣r♦✉♣s ❞❡♣❡♥❞✐♥❣ ♦♥ ✇❤❡t❤❡r ❛✈❡r❛❣❡ t❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s ✭r❡s♣✳ r❛✐♥❢❛❧❧s✮ ❢r♦♠ ❖❝t♦❜❡r ✷✵✵✻ t♦ ❏✉♥❡ ✷✵✵✼ ❂ ❜❡❧♦✇ ♦r ❛❜♦✈❡ t❤❡ ♠❡❛♥ ✐♥ t❤❡ s❛♠♣❧❡✳ ❲❡ ❝♦♥str✉❝t t✇♦ s❡r✐❡s✿ ❩ ❍✐❣❤

t

❛♥❞ ❩ ▲♦✇

t

r✉♥ t❤❡ s❛♠❡ r❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ t❤❛♥ ❛❜♦✈❡✳ ❚❡♠♣❡r❛t✉r❡s✿ β❍✐❣❤ = ✵.✷✹ ❛♥❞ β▲♦✇ = ✵.✺✾✳ ❂❃ ✐♥ ❝♦❧❞ ❛r❡❛s✱ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❡♥t❛✐❧❡❞ ❛ r✐s❡ ✐♥ ❝❡♥t❡rs ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✺✾✪ ❛❣❛✐♥st ♦♥❧② ✷✹✪ ✐♥ ✇❛r♠❡r ❛r❡❛s✳ ❉✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❂ ♠❛r❣✐♥❛❧❧② ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ✭P✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❂ ✵✳✵✻✮✳ ❘❛✐♥❢❛❧❧s✿ β❍✐❣❤ = ✵.✺✸ ❛♥❞ β▲♦✇ = ✵.✸✷✳ ❂❃ ✐♥ r❛✐♥② ❛r❡❛s✱ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❡♥t❛✐❧❡❞ ❛ r✐s❡ ✐♥ ❝❡♥t❡rs ❛tt❡♥❞❛♥❝❡ ♦❢ ✺✸✪ ❛❣❛✐♥st ♦♥❧② ✸✷✪ ✐♥ ✇❛r♠❡r ❛r❡❛s✳ ❍♦✇❡✈❡r✱ ❞✐✛❡r❡♥❝❡ ❂ ✐♥s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ✭P✲✈❛❧✉❡ ❂ ✵✳✷✽✮✳ ❚✇♦ r❡s✉❧ts ❛❜♦✈❡ ❝♦♥s✐st❡♥t ✇✐t❤ ❛ r♦✉❣❤ ❝♦st ❜❡♥❡✜t ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡s ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❢♦r s♠♦❦❡rs✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-19
SLIDE 19

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts

❉❛t❛ ❛♥❞ ♠❡t❤♦❞s

❲❡ ❜❛s❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ st❛t✉s ❛ss❡ss♠❡♥t ♦♥ ❈❖ ♠❡❛s✉r❡s ♠❛❞❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✲✉♣ ✈✐s✐ts✳ ❍❡♥❝❡ t❤❡ s❡❧❡❝t✐♦♥ ♣r♦❝❡ss ❞❡s❝r✐❜❡❞ ❜❡❧♦✇✳ ❈❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❂ ✶ ✐❢ ❧❛st ❈❖ ♠❡❛s✉r❡ ♠❛❞❡ ❞✉r✐♥❣ ❢♦❧❧♦✇✲✉♣ ✈✐s✐ts ❜❡❧♦✇ ✺ ♣♣♠ ✭st❛♥❞❛r❞ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❧✐t❡r❛t✉r❡✮✳ ▼❡t❤♦❞s✿ ❉■❉ ♦♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡✳ P❡r✐♦❞ ✵ ❂ ❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✵✺✲❏❛♥✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✳ P❡r✐♦❞ ✶ ❂ ❋❡❜r✉❛r② ✷✵✵✼✲❆✉❣✉st ✷✵✵✽✳ ❚r❡❛t♠❡♥t ❣r♦✉♣✿ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts✳ ❈♦♥tr♦❧ ❣r♦✉♣✿ ♥♦♥ ❡♠♣❧♦②❡❞ ♣❛t✐❡♥ts✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-20
SLIDE 20

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts

❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts ❜② ✶✽✪

Without controls P-value With controls1 P-value Selection & controls1 P-value (1) (2) (3) DID2 0.099* 0.03 0.090* 0.04 0.091* 0.04 R-squared 0.013 0.184 N3 2215 2149 8007

❉■❉ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝♦♥tr♦❧s ❂ ✰✾✳✾ ♣❡r❝❡♥t❛❣❡ ♣♦✐♥ts✳ ❆❝❝♦r❞✐♥❣ t♦ t❤❡ ❉■❉ r❡❣r❡ss✐♦♥ ✇✐t❤♦✉t ❝♦♥tr♦❧s✱ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❜❡❡♥ ❡q✉❛❧ t♦ ✺✹✪ ✇✐t❤♦✉t t❤❡ ❜❛♥✳ ❂❃ ✰✾✳✾ ♣♣ r❡♣r❡s❡♥ts ❛♥ ✶✽✪ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ r❛t❡s✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-21
SLIDE 21

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥ ■♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts

❈♦♠♠♦♥ tr❡♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥

❚♦ ✏t❡st✑ t❤❡ ❝♦♠♠♦♥ tr❡♥❞ ❛ss✉♠♣t✐♦♥✱ ✇❡ ❝♦♠♣✉t❡ ✸ ♣❧❛❝❡❜♦ ❉■❉ ✭✷✵✵✹✲✷✵✵✺✱ ✷✵✵✺✲✷✵✵✻ ❛♥❞ ✷✵✵✼✲✷✵✵✽✮✳ ◆♦♥❡ ✐s s✐❣♥✐✜❝❛♥t ❂❃ ❣✐✈❡s s♦♠❡ ❝r❡❞✐t t♦ ♦✉r ✐❞❡♥t✐✜❝❛t✐♦♥ str❛t❡❣②✳

Diff in diff P-value N 2004-2005 0.001 0.99 1849 2005-2006

  • 0.061

0.19 2070 2006-2007 0.099** 0.03 2215 2007-2008 0.030 0.54 1990

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-22
SLIDE 22

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ r❡s✉❧ts

◆♦ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ♦♥ ❋r❡♥❝❤ ♣r❡✈❛❧❡♥❝❡ r❛t❡✳ ✏❱♦❧✉♥t❛r② ❜❛♥s✑ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ♣r♦❜❛❜❧② ❜✐❛s❡❞ ❞✉❡ t♦ ❡♥❞♦❣❡♥❡✐t② ✴ r❡✈❡rs❡ ❝❛✉s❛❧✐t② ✐ss✉❡s✳ ❙tr♦♥❣ ✐♠♣❛❝t ♦❢ t❤❡ ❜❛♥ ❛♠♦♥❣ ❛ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ♦❢ ❤❛r❞❝♦r❡ ❛❞❞✐❝ts✿ ✐♥❝r❡❛s❡❞ t❤❡ ♥✉♠❜❡r ♦❢ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts ❜② ✸✵✪ ❛♥❞ t❤❡ r❛t❡ ♦❢ s✉❝❝❡ss❢✉❧ q✉✐ts ❜② ✶✽✪✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥

slide-23
SLIDE 23

■♥tr♦❞✉❝t✐♦♥ ❙✉♠♠❛r② ♦❢ ✜♥❞✐♥❣s

  • ❡♥❡r❛❧ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s

❈❉❚ ♣♦♣✉❧❛t✐♦♥ ❛♥❛❧②s✐s ❈♦♥❝❧✉s✐♦♥

❈♦♥tr❛❞✐❝t♦r② ✜♥❞✐♥❣s ❄

❇❡r♥❤❡✐♠✲❘❛♥❣❡❧ ✭✷✵✵✹✮ ♠♦❞❡❧ ♦❢ ❝✉❡✲tr✐❣❣❡r❡❞ ♠✐st❛❦❡s✳ ▼❛✐♥ ❝♦♥s❡q✉❡♥❝❡ ♦❢ ❛ ✇♦r❦♣❧❛❝❡ s♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❜❛♥ ✐s t♦ r❡❞✉❝❡ t❤❡ ❛♠♦✉♥t ♦❢ ❡♥✈✐r♦♥♠❡♥t❛❧ ❝✉❡s t♦ ✇❤✐❝❤ s♠♦❦❡rs ❛r❡ ❢❛❝❡❞ ✇❤✐❧❡ ❛t ✇♦r❦✳ ❚❤✐s r❡s✉❧ts ✐♥ ❛ ❞r♦♣ ✐♥ t❤❡ ♣r♦❜❛❜✐❧✐t② ♦❢ ❡♥t❡r✐♥❣ ✇❤❛t ❇❡r♥❤❡✐♠ ❛♥❞ ❘❛♥❣❡❧ r❡❢❡r t♦ ❛s ✏t❤❡ ❤♦t ♠♦❞❡✑✱ ❛ ♣s②❝❤♦❧♦❣✐❝❛❧ ♠♦❞❡ ✐♥t♦ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❛♥ ❛❞❞✐❝t s②st❡♠❛t✐❝❛❧❧② s♠♦❦❡s ❡✈❡♥ t❤♦✉❣❤✱ ❤❛❞ s❤❡ ❜❡❡♥ ✐♥ ✏t❤❡ ❝♦❧❞ ♠♦❞❡✑✱ s❤❡ ✇♦✉❧❞ ❤❛✈❡ ❝❤♦s❡♥ ♥♦t t♦ s♠♦❦❡✳ ❇❡r♥❤❡✐♠ ❘❛♥❣❡❧ ♣r♦♣♦s✐t✐♦♥ ✷✿ s✉❝❤ ❛ ❞r♦♣✱ ✇❤✐❝❤ ❝♦rr❡s♣♦♥❞s t♦ ❛ ❞❡❝r❡❛s❡ ✐♥ t❤❡ ❛❞❞✐❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss ♦❢ ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s✱ ❤❛s ♦♣♣♦s✐t❡ ❡✛❡❝ts ❛♠♦♥❣ ✇❡❛❦❧② ❛❞❞✐❝t❡❞ s♠♦❦❡rs ❛♥❞ ❤❛r❞❝♦r❡ ❛❞❞✐❝ts✿ ✐t ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ✉s❡ ❛♠♦♥❣ ♥❡✇ ✉s❡rs s✐♥❝❡ ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s ❛♣♣❡❛r ♠♦r❡ ✐♥♥♦❝✉♦✉s✳ ✐t ❡♥❝♦✉r❛❣❡s ❤❛r❞❝♦r❡ ❛❞❞✐❝ts t♦ ♠❛❦❡ ❝❡ss❛t✐♦♥ ❛tt❡♠♣ts✿ ❜❡❝❛✉s❡ ♦❢ t❤❡ ❞r♦♣ ✐♥ ❝✐❣❛r❡tt❡s✬ ❛❞❞✐❝t✐✈❡♥❡ss✱ s✉❝❤ ❛tt❡♠♣ts ❛r❡ ♥♦ ❧♦♥❣❡r ❜♦✉♥❞ t♦ ❢❛✐❧✳

❈❧é♠❡♥t ❞❡ ❈❤❛✐s❡♠❛rt✐♥ ✫ P✐❡rr❡✲❨✈❡s ●❡♦✛❛r❞ ❙♠♦❦✐♥❣ ❇❛♥