R eview of c limate adaptation evaluations T imo L eiter Doctor - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

R eview of c limate adaptation evaluations

T imo L eiter

Doctor al r esear cher , Gr antham R esear ch I nstitute

• n Climate Change and the E

nvir

• nment

T .L .L eiter @lse.ac.uk 3r

d I

nte r nati

• nal

Confe r e nc e on E val uati ng E nvi r

• nme nt

and De ve l

• pme nt, 2 Oc tobe r2019, Pr

ague @T imoL e ite r

Ur gency to act on climate impacts

1.

Sinc e the 2nd Int. Confe re nc e on E va lua ting CC & SusDe v:



Pa ris Ag re e me nt

 Clima te a c tio n ple dg e s fro m a ll c o untrie s(NDCs)  I

nc re a se d le ve ls o f c lima te fina nc e

 Hig hte ne d pub lic pre ssure to a c t (in so me c o untrie s)

2.

Pa ris te mpe ra ture g oa ls unlike ly to be a c hie ve d

• Na tio na l ple dg e s le a d to > 3°C wa rming b y 2100

(Ca rb o n Ac tio n T ra c ke r, 2018)

• L

a rg e fossil fue l inve stme nts & subsidie s a re o ng o ing

• Ra pidly g ro wing me tha ne re le a se s fro m me lting

pe rma fro st  a c c e le ra tio n o f wa rming (Nisb e t e t a l., 2019)

BUT :

 Ne e d to adapt a s fa r a s po ssib le

E valuation of climate adaptation actions

1.

Wha t doe s the Pa ris Ag re e me nt sa y?

• Art.7: Co untrie s “Sha ll, a s a ppro pria te ,” e ng a g e in:

“ Monitoring a nd e va lua ting a nd le a rning fro m a da pta tio n pla ns, po lic ie s, pro g ra mme s a nd a c tio ns”

2.

Purpose s of a da pta tion e va lua tions

• E

ffic a c y, le a rning a nd a c c ounta bility a s ma in purpo se

• f a da pta tio n e va lua tio ns (UNDP, 2004; UNF

CCC, 2010)

• 2nd Int. Confe re nc e on E

va lua ting CC a nd SusDe v:

ne e d to e va lua te a da pta tio n (Uitto e t a l., 2017)

• “Ada pta tio n inte rve ntio ns sho uld b e ba se d on

e vide nc e of wha t works” (Pro wse & Snilstve it, 2010)

@T imoL e ite r

• 2010: “the e vide nc e

base o n the impac t

• f CC inte r

ve ntions

is minimal” (Pro wse &

Snilstve it, 2010)

• 2014: 2nd I

nt Co nfe re nc e : ve ry fe w a da pta tio n e va lua tio ns

• 2019: ?

F igur e : Sa b e t, S.M., & Bro wn, A.N. (2018). Is impac t e valuation still on the r ise ? T

he ne w tre nd s in 2010–2015. Jo urnal o f De ve lo pme nt E ffe c tive ne ss, 10(3), 291–304.

I mpact evaluations on the r ise – also for adaptation?

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations

1.

Sc ope

• Pub lishe d in sc ie ntific journa ls
• E

xplic itly re fe rring to a da pta tion to CC

• T

ype o f e va lua tio n: „Rig e rous“ impa c t e va lua tions

(White , 2010)

• E

xc luding : e x-a nte , pro c e ss a nd fo rma tive e va lua tio ns

2.

Sourc e s:

• We b of Sc ie nc e Da ta ba se (33,000 jo urna ls*)
• I

nte rna tio na l I nitia tive fo r I mpa c t E va lua tio n (3ie )

Re pository (4,600 e va lua tio ns)

• Surve y of 10 e xpe rts o n a da pta tio n M&E

fro m inte rna tio na l o rg a nisa tio ns

*Re sults a ppa re ntly va ry due to lib ra ry sub sc riptio ns!

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations

3.

Se a rc h proc e ss:

• We b of Sc ie nc e : a ll da ta b a se s
• T

itle : “c lima te ” AND “a da pta tion” AND “e va lua tion”

• Sc re e ning o f re le va nc e b a se d o n title & a bstra c t
• 3ie re po sito ry: „a da pta tio n“ a s se a rc h te rm

4.

Re sults:

• We b of Sc ie nc e : 71 unique hits
• E

x-a nte : 33, pla nning : 8, c lima te impa c ts: 10, o the r: 15

• Re le va nt: 5 o n indic a to rs, b ut 0 e valuations
• 3ie re pository: 1
• Surve y of 10 e xpe rts: 3

T

• tal: 4 a da pta tio n impa c t e va lua tio ns

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations

• 5. Ide ntifie d e va lua tions:
• We lde g e b rie l, Z.B., & Pro wse , M. (2013). Clima te - Cha ng e Ada pta tion in E

thiopia : T

• Wha t E

xte nt Doe s Soc ia l Prote c tion Influe nc e L ive lihood Dive rsific a tion? De ve lo pme nt

Po lic y Re vie w, 31(2), 35-56 [PSM]

• Asfa w, S. e t a l. (2017). Ca sh tra nsfe r prog ra mme s, we a the r shoc ks a nd house hold

we lfa re : e vide nc e from a ra ndomise d e xpe rime nt in Za mbia . Jo urnal o f De ve lo pme nt

E ffe c tive ne ss, 9(4), 419-442. [RCT

]

• Brüsso w, K

. e t a l., (2017). Implic a tions of c lima te - sma rt stra te g y a doption by fa rm

house holds for food se c urity in T a nza nia. F

• o d Se c urity, 9(6). [PSM]
• Alpiza r, F

. e t a l. (2019). T

he impa c ts of a c a pa c ity- building workshop in a ra ndomize d a da pta tion proje c t. Nature Climate Chang e , 9, Aug ust 2019. [RCT ]

@T imoL e ite r

PSM = Pro pe nsity Sc o re Ma tc hing , RCT= Ra ndo mise d Co ntro lle d T

ria l

A systematic r eview of adaptation evaluations

• 5. Ide ntifie d e va lua tion re vie ws:
• Ara me , T

., e t a l. (2018). Do c lima te se rvic e s ma ke a diffe re nc e ? A

re vie w of e va lua tion me thodolog ie s a nd pra c tic e s to a sse ss the

va lue o f c lima te info rma tio n se rvic e s fo r fa rme rs: I mplic a tio ns fo r Afric a . Climate Se rvic e s, 11, 1-12.

• Va ug ha n, C., e t a l. (2019). E

va lua ting a g ric ultura l we a the r a nd c lima te se rvic e s in Afric a : E vide nc e , me thods, a nd a le a rning a g e nda . Wile y I

nte rdisc iplinary Re vie ws Climate Chang e . F irst pub lishe d o nline : 09 Ma y 2019.

• Miya g uc hi, T

., & Uitto , J. (2017). Wha t Do E

va lua tions T e ll Us About Clima te Cha ng e Ada pta tion? Me ta - a na lysis with a Re a list Approa c h. I

n: Uitto , J., Puri, J., & va n de n Be rg , R. (E ds). E va lua tio n Clima te Cha ng e Ac tio n fo r Susta ina b le De ve lo pme nt. Spring e r. @T imoL e ite r

Co nfirm the finding

• f ha rdly

a ny impa c t e va lua tio ns

• n

a da pta tio n

Possible explanations

• 1. Ada pta tion is e lusive a nd c omple x
• T

he se e va lua tio n c ha lle ng e s a re “thwa rting the e ffo rts o f skille d e va lua to rs, o r te mpting

informa tion provide rs to de fe r e va lua tion to re ly

• n more e a sily tra c ke d but le ss me a ning ful

me tric s” (Va ug ha n e t a l., 2019)

• 2. F

e w c omple te d a da pta tion inte rve ntions

• F

irst g e ne ra tio n o f a da pta tio n pro je c ts/ pro g ra mme s o nly b e c o ming c o mple te d

• 3. No inc e ntive to publish in journa ls
• No inc e ntive fo r imple me nte rs/ do no rs to

pub lish in sc ie ntific jo urna ls @T imoL e ite r

• Amer. J. Agr. Econ.

100(1). 2018

• Do e s no t

me ntio n “ adaptation”

• Me ntio ns

“ c limate

c hange” o nly

• nc e
• L

imitation o f

the se a rc h a lg o rithm

I mplications

1.

F

• r e va lua tion
• “this will re q uire (…) a g re a te r foc us on risk,

unc e rta inty a nd c omple xity; a re inve ntion of proje c t e va lua tion; full use o f the e va lua tio n to o l kit a nd

judic io us e va lua tio n g o ve rna nc e a rra ng e me nts” (Pic c io tto , 2009)

2.

F

• r a da pta tion
• T

ra ditio na l pla nning -imple me nta tio n-re vie w c yc le is to o slo w

• Ne e d to find more c re a te wa ys to inform a da pta tion

pla nning

• Do no rs ne e d to pa y mo re a tte ntio n to utility- foc use d

e va lua tion a nd le a rning !

@T imoL e ite r

Adaptation metr ics backgr

• und paper
• Or

ie nting the disc ussion

• Wha t a re a da pta tio n me tric s?
• Wha t c a n the y b e use d fo r?
• Wha t a re the ir limita tio ns?
• Wha t c urre nt pra c tic e s e xist in:
• Ag ric ulture & fo o d se c urity (F

AO)

• F

ina nc e a nd inve stme nt (E BRD & WB o b o MDBs)

• Citie s (GE

F )

• Re c o mme nda tio ns
• Infor

ming the de bate to not jump to indic ator s without c onside r ing pur pose & me aning

L e ite r, T ., Olho ff, A. e t a l. (2019). Adaptation Me tr

ic s: Cur r e nt L andsc ape and e volving pr ac tic e s. Ba c kg ro und pa pe r fo r the Glo b a l Co mmissio n o n

Ad a pta tio n. Ac c e ss o n Re se a rc hGa te  T imo L e ite r

T hank you! T

.L .L eiter @lse.ac.uk Pub lic a tio ns o n Re se ar

c hGate : T

imo L e ite r

@ T imoL eiter