Pushing the limits: Climate and Range Distribution of Two Forest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Pushing the limits: Climate and Range Distribution of Two Forest - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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1 Pushing the limits: Climate and Range Distribution of Two Forest Pests *****Colloque prsent en anglais***** Kishan Sambaraju, chercheur scientifique Modlisation des pidmiologies RNCan-SCF-CFL 2 Pushing the limits: Climate and range

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Pushing the limits: Climate and Range Distribution of Two Forest Pests *****Colloque présenté en anglais*****

Kishan Sambaraju, chercheur scientifique Modélisation des épidémiologies RNCan-SCF-CFL

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Kishan Sambaraju, Ph.D.

Natural Resources Canada Canadian Forest Service

Pushing the limits: Climate and range distributions

  • f two forest pests
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“A scientific man (sic) is the only person who has anything to say and does not know how to say it”

Quote

Un scientifique est la seule personne qui a des choses à dire, mais ne sais pas comment les dire (parfaitement en français)

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Outline

  • 1. Climate change
  • 2. Climate vs. Forest pest distributions
  • Empirical modelling
  • Dendroctonus ponderosae
  • Ceratocystis polonica
  • Trends
  • Dendroctonus ponderosae
  • 3. Summary
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Climate Change

  • What is it?
  • Long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns
  • Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
  • Human activities (“anthropogenic”)

Source: IPCC AR5 report

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Climate Change

  • Change compared with what?
  • Relative to a given historical period
  • 2081-2100 vs. 1986-2005

Source: IPCC AR5 report

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Source: IPCC AR5 report

Projected Changes

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  • Individual
  • Growth and development
  • Flight
  • Diapause

Climate and forest insects

  • Population
  • Population density
  • Voltinism
  • Synchronous emergence
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Climate and Eruptive Forest Insects

Climate Trees Insects

Temperature Herbivory

Natural enemies

Defense Outbreak

Synchrony

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Impacts of climate change on forest insects

Changes in outbreak potential and range shift

  • Over-wintering survival
  • Increased voltinism
  • Stressed host trees

Source: IPCC AR5 report

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Climate and Forest Pathogens

www.apsnet.org

  • Germination and infection
  • Growth and reproduction
  • Dissemination
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Changes in distribution, intensity, and severity

Impacts vary by pathogen and climatic condition

  • Warmer/Drier: Increased impact by Armillaria root disease
  • Warmer/Wetter: Increased impact by Phytophthora ramorum

Impacts of climate change on forest diseases

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Outline

  • 1. Climate change
  • 2. Climate vs. Forest pest distributions
  • Empirical modelling
  • Dendroctonus ponderosae
  • Ceratocystis polonica
  • Trends
  • Dendroctonus ponderosae
  • 3. Summary
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Climate vs. Forest pest distributions  Empirical modelling  Observing trends

y = f (x)

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Empirical models

  • Understand insect or disease occurrences as a

function of environmental factors

  • Quantify the contributions of factors driving pest

distributions and their spread

  • Make predictions over time and/or space
  • Study potential range distributions under climate

change for native and invasive alien pest species

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How are the models developed?

  • 1. Species occurrence data
  • 2. Environmental data
  • 3. Modelling Framework

http://www.jeffersoncountywi.gov/

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How are the models developed?

  • 1. Species occurrence data
  • Types of data
  • 1. Point
  • 2. Area
  • 3. Grid
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How are the models developed?

  • 2. Environmental data
  • Variable types
  • Climate
  • Topography
  • Habitat
https://asemedtraining.files.wordpress.com/2013/02/gis-layer-1.png
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How are the models developed?

  • 3. Modelling Framework
  • Statistical models
  • Climatic profiles
  • Machine learning
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Conceptual Diagram

Species data Environmental data Modelling Framework Predictions

Time Space

Climate change impacts Invasive species risk

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Modelling Framework

  • Statistical Models
  • Climatic profiles

Changes in mountain pine beetle outbreak risk under simulated climate change conditions

Photo: Donald Owen, CAL FIRE, Bugwood.org

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Mountain Pine Beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae

Photo: Brytten Steed, USDA-FS, Bugwood.org

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Life Cycle of Mountain Pine Beetle

Photo credits: Egg: Brytten Steed, USDA-FS, Bugwood.org; Larva: Scott Tunnock, USDA-FS, Bugwood.org; pupa: USDA-FS - Ogden Archive, Bugwood.org; Flying adult: Dion Manastyrski, Ministry of Forests, Southern Interior Forest Region

July-August July-August Aug-Sept. May-June

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Photos: DPW Huber

Epidemiology of mountain pine beetle

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Photos: DPW Huber

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Fungal associates of the mountain pine beetle

http://genomealberta.ca

  • Grosmannia clavigera and Ophiostoma montium
  • Carried in mycangia or on beetle exoskeleton
  • Help the insect colonize and kill a host tree
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Year 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Area affected (Mha) 2 4 6 8 10 12

Mountain pine beetle outbreak history

British Columbia Alberta

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Mountain pine beetle outbreak progression

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Jack pine Eastern white pine Red pine

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Climate change impacts

  • Used aerial survey data sets of mountain pine beetle infestations
  • Associated climate and elevation information with presence or absence of

infestations

  • Modelled outbreak occurrence under simulated climate change scenarios
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Model

Temperature Degree days Spatial infestations Summer Temperature Winter Temperature Extreme min. thresholds Cold Snaps Temperature Drops Temporal infestations

Climate change impacts

Sambaraju et al. Ecography (2012)

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Results: Changes in outbreak risk by latitude under a 1ºC temperature increase scenario

Latitude (°N) 4 9

  • 5

5

  • 5

1 5 1

  • 5

2 5 2

  • 5

3 5 3

  • 5

4 5 4

  • 5

5 5 5

  • 5

6 5 6

  • 5

7 5 7

  • 5

8 # grid cells with altered outbreak risk 20 10 10 20 Risk Risk

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33 Latitude (°N) 4 9

  • 5

5

  • 5

1 5 1

  • 5

2 5 2

  • 5

3 5 3

  • 5

4 5 4

  • 5

5 5 5

  • 5

6 5 6

  • 5

7 5 7

  • 5

8 # grid cells with altered outbreak risk 20 10 10 20 Risk Risk

Results: Changes in outbreak risk by latitude under a 2ºC temperature increase scenario

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34 Latitude (°N) 49-50 50-51 51-52 52-53 53-54 54-55 55-56 56-57 57-58 # grid cells with altered outbreak risk 20 10 10 20 Risk Risk

Results: Changes in outbreak risk by latitude under a 4ºC temperature increase scenario

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Climate change impacts - Main conclusions

  • Probability of outbreaks may increase northward

under high temperature regimes in future

  • Range shifts toward northern latitudes and

higher elevations can be expected

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Empirical Modelling

Species data Environmental data Modelling Framework Predictions

Time Space

Climate Change impacts Invasive species risk

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Modelling Framework

  • Statistical Models
  • Climatic profiles

Climatic suitability for the exotic fungal pathogen, Ceratocystis polonica, in Canada

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  • Major insect infesting spruce in Eurasia
  • Epidemic populations kill healthy trees
  • Interceptions at ports of entry in Canada and USA

European spruce bark beetle, Ips typographus

Credit: Daniel Adam, Office National des Forêts, Bugwood.org

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Fungal associates of the European spruce bark beetle

  • Important associates include Ceratocystis polonica and several

species of Ophiostoma (O. penicillatum, O. bicolor, O. piceae)

  • C. polonica is the most aggressive among the fungal associates
  • Risk posed by C. polonica to Canada’s forests:
  • It is the most pathogenic associate of I. typographus
  • I. typographus can survive well on North American spruces

(Økland et al. 2011)

  • Climate change could help the insect to establish in Canada
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Distribution of C. polonica in Europe

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Bioclimatic tolerance limits Climatic parameters

Temperature Annual Temperature (Min, Max, Mean) Mean Quarterly Temperature (Wettest, Driest, Warmest, Coldest) Mean Monthly Temperature (Warmest, Coldest) Precipitation Annual Precipitation Quarterly Precipitation (Wettest, Driest, Warmest, Coldest) Monthly Precipitation (Wettest, Driest) Moisture Stress Annual Aridity Index Quarterly Aridity Index (Wettest, Driest, Warmest, Coldest)

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Sample bioclimatic profile

Parameter Minimum 10% 90% Maximum Annual Precipitation (cm) 37.1 73.3 139.7 184.8 Warmest quarter Tmean (°C) 13.1 13.7 20.0 24.5 Warmest quarter aridity index (cm) 18.6 22.2 Warmest quarter precipitation (cm) 15.0 16.5 45.7 68.2 Driest quarter Tmean (°C)

  • 14.8
  • 6.2

14.9 18.2 Driest quarter aridity index (cm) 13.1 30.2 Coldest quarter Tmean (°C)

  • 14.8
  • 7.8

2.4 4.5

  • Extrapolate bioclimatic profile to locations in

Canada

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Climate vs. Pest species distributions  Model framework  Observing trends

y = f (x)

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Observing Trends

  • Used MPB aerial survey data from British

Columbia during 1965-1996

  • Analyzed pre-outbreak populations
  • Calculated average deviations (3-yr) for aridity

and temperature from the ‘normal’

  • Averaged the climatic deviations from the

‘normal’ across all locations per year

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52 53 54 55 56 57

0,8 0,9 1 1,1 1,2 1,3 1,4 1965 1970 1975 1990 1995 Latitude Aridity Ratio Year

Aridity Latitude

Above normal Below normal

~ 300 km

Aridity regimes vs. Latitudinal range shifts

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52 53 54 55 56 57

  • 3
  • 2
  • 1

1 2 1965 1970 1975 1990 1995

Latitude Change in temperature (°C) Year

Average temperature Latitude

Above normal Below normal

+ 2.5°C

Temperature regimes vs. Latitudinal range shifts

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Main conclusion

  • Abnormal climatic conditions push the

beetle population ranges further northward

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Summary

  • Distributions of forest insects and pathogens are affected by

changes in climate

  • Different approaches can be used to study the influence of

climate on actual or potential distributions of forest pests

  • Model outputs can be used to understand climate change

impacts or invasive risk of pest species

  • Observing trends can provide important clues to climatic factors

driving pest distributions

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Summary

  • Monitoring, proactive management practices, and aggressive

reactive measures may help mitigate forest health issues under climate change

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Acknowledgements

Laurentian Forestry Centre Funding Chantal Côté Natural Resources Canada Jacques Régnière The “TRIA” Project Rémi St-Amant BC Forest Sciences Program Pierre DesRochers Lise Caron University of Minnesota Brian Aukema University of British Columbia Allan Carroll Kerstin Stahl Dan Moore