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Prince William County Prince William County Prince William County Prince William County Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics January 18, 2012 January 18, 2012 January

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Prince William County Prince William County Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics January 18, 2012 January 18, 2012

Bill Vaughan Bill Vaughan Chief Economist/County Demographer Chief Economist/County Demographer Prince William Co. Finance Dept. Prince William Co. Finance Dept. www.pwcgov.org www.pwcgov.org

Prince William County Prince William County Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics January 18, 2012 January 18, 2012

Bill Vaughan Bill Vaughan Chief Economist/County Demographer Chief Economist/County Demographer Prince William Co. Finance Dept. Prince William Co. Finance Dept. www.pwcgov.org www.pwcgov.org

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 2 | January 18, 2012

Prince William County Facts Prince William County Facts

Prince William County

Montgomery County Anne Arundel County Fairfax County Prince George’s County Calvert County Charles County Howard County Frederick County Fauquier County

195

Stafford County Spotsylvania County

Fredericksburg Fairfax

Loudoun County

Alexandria Falls Church Arlington Co. Manassas Pk. Manassas

MARYLAND VIRGINIA

Wash./Dulles

  • Int. Airport

Reagan

  • Nat. Airport

Baltimore- Washington

  • Int. Airport

495 95 66 270 95 70 395 395 95 695 97 P

  • t
  • m

a c R .

WASH. D.C.

Population: 2010 Census 402,002 (Apr. 1, 2010) Latest estimate 411,751 (Dec. 15, 2011)--2.43% increase Households married couple families with children, 2010: 31.7% (region: 22.3%) Adults with college degree, 2010: 43.7% Labor force, November 2011: 217,175 Unemployment rate, November 2011: 4.7% (region: 4.1%): Female labor force participation rate, 2010: 68.5% (region: 67.9%) At-place employment: 108,630 (2st Qtr. 2011)—3.5% increase y-o-y Median Household Income, 2010: $92,655 (ranked 9th in U.S.) (region: $84,523) One-way average commute, 2010: 38 minutes (up from 36.9 in 2000) Percent of labor force working outside of County, 2010: 62.5% Average assessed house value, 2011: $265,848 Average sold price, 2011: $271,558 (Dec., 2011—0.7% decrease y-o-y)

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 3 | January 18, 2012

Demographics: Population Demographics: Population

  • PWC: 411,751 (as of Dec. 15, 2011); 2.43% growth rate since 2010
  • Manassas: 37,821 (Apr. 1, 2010) Manassas Park: 14,273 (Apr. 1, 2010)
  • 1,215 persons per square mile of land area
  • PWC projected to grow to 535,629 persons by 2030
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 4 | January 18, 2012

2000 2000-

  • 10 Population/Housing Growth

10 Population/Housing Growth With 2001 Election Districts With 2001 Election Districts

2000 2010 Gr.

  • Gr. Rt.

BRENTSVILLE 39,367 79,541 40,174 102.0% COLES 40,537 51,768 11,231 27.7% DUMFRIES 41,525 53,936 12,411 29.9% GAINESVILLE 41,883 73,142 31,259 74.6% NEABSCO 39,799 49,099 9,300 23.4% OCCOQUAN 38,580 40,241 1,661 4.3% WOODBRIDGE 39,122 54,275 15,153 38.7% COUNTY-WIDE 280,813 402,002 121,189 43.2% AVERAGE 40,116 57,429 17,313 43.2%

Election District Population Growth 2000-10

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 5 | January 18, 2012

2011 Adopted Election Districts 2011 Adopted Election Districts

Total Population BRENTSVILLE 79,541 COLES 51,768 DUMFRIES 53,936 GAINESVILLE 73,142 NEABSCO 49,099 OCCOQUAN 40,241 WOODBRIDGE 54,275 COUNTY-WIDE 402,002

Old Districts 2010 Population before Redistricting

Total Population BRENTSVILLE 60,162 COLES 59,207 GAINESVILLE 59,991 NEABSCO 54,920 OCCOQUAN 56,209 POTOMAC 55,562 WOODBRIDGE 55,951 COUNTY-WIDE 402,002

New Districts 2010 Population after Redistricting Equal population (402,002 / 7): 57,429

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 6 | January 18, 2012

Demographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity Demographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity

Reporting One Race 1990 2000 2010 2010 U.S. Reporting One Race N/A 96.4% 94.9% 97.1% White 83.3% 68.9% 60.9% 72.4% Black/African American 11.6% 18.8% 21.3% 12.6%

  • Am. Indian/Alaska Nat.

0.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.9%

  • As. Amer. Pac. Island.

3.0% 3.9% 8.1% 5.0% Other 1.7% 4.3% 9.1% 6.2% Reporting 2 or more Races NA 3.6% 5.1% 2.9% Hispanic Origin (any race) 4.5% 9.7% 20.3% 16.3%

Source: U.S. Dept. Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 1990, 2000, 2010 Censuses Note: percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding

  • Pr. Wm. Co. Racial Identity (Reporting One Race) 2000, 2010
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 7 | January 18, 2012

Demographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity Demographics: PWC Race and Ethnicity

Growth 2000 - 2010 Hispanic (of any race): 198.8% Asian/Pacific Islander: 188.8% American Indian/Alaska Native: 69.5% Black/African American: 53.6% White: 20.4% PWC is now “majority-minority” community, meaning less than half (48.7%)

  • f the population is reported as non-Hispanic and of one-race-White

Source: U.S. Dept. Of Commerce, Bureau of the Census 1990, 2000, 2010 Censuses,

  • Pr. Wm. Co. Population by Race and Ethnicity

Percent Change 2000 - 2010

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 8 | January 18, 2012

Demographics: Nativity, Place of Birth and Demographics: Nativity, Place of Birth and Language Language

PWC Birth Place and Citizenship 2010 Native to the U.S……………………………………….78.8% (U.S.: 87.5%) Foreign-born………………………………...………….21.2% (U.S.: 12.5%) Naturalized citizens…………………………………10.0% (U.S.: 5.6%) Not a citizen……………………….……...………….11.2% (U.S.: 7.3%)

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey 1-Year estimates.

Region of Birth of PWC Foreign-Born Population, 2008

30.3% speaks a language other than English at home (U.S.: 20.6%)

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 9 | January 18, 2012

Demographics: Age and Gender Demographics: Age and Gender

28.9% of the total County population is under 18 years of age (over 4 percentage points higher than U.S. rate) 6.8% is aged 65 and over (about half the U.S. rate), increasing over time 49.7% male, 50.3% female The median age of the population is 33.2 years (U.S.: 36.8 years)

Sources: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey, 2010 Census.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 10 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Housing Stock

Housing Stock

  • Pr. Wm Co. housing stock:

56.7% SFD, 24.9% TH, 17.4% MF 31.2% (about one-in-three) of houses were built since 2000

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 11 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Education

Education

  • Pr. Wm Co. September 30, 2011 public school enrollment: 81,635 (19.9% of total

population—1 in 5 persons in the County) 36.9% of adults in Prince William County had bachelor’s degrees or higher (U.S.: 28.1%)

Persons 25 Years and over Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey

Educational Attainment in Pr. William Co. 2010

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 12 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Income and Poverty

Income and Poverty

2010 Median Household Income Prince William County: $92,655 (U.S.: $50,046) Ranked 9th in U.S., 5th in Commonwealth 11 of top 20 counties in the US are in Washington Metropolitan Area

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 13 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Income and Poverty

Income and Poverty

2010 Median Household Income 8.3% of households had income less than $25,000 46.0% of households had incomes of $100,000 or greater 10.0% of households had income of $200,000 or greater Poverty rates: PWC: 5.5%; Virginia: 11.1%; US: 15.3%

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 2010 American Community Survey

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 14 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Journey to Work

Journey to Work

  • Pr. Wm. Co. 2010 average travel time to work (one-way): 38 minutes (U.S.: 25.3)
  • Pr. Wm. Co. had the 12th longest average commute in the U.S.

8 of top 20 longest commutes are in metropolitan Washington 23.4% travel an hour or more one way to work (U.S.: 8.0%) 68.6% drive to work alone (U.S.: 76.6%) 15.5% carpool to work (U.S.: 9.7%) 5.5% use public transportation (U.S.: 4.9%)

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 15 | January 18, 2012

Demographics Demographics:

: Place of Work

Place of Work

  • Pr. Wm. Co. Labor Force 2010

About 1 in 3 (37.5%) of labor force live and work in Pr. Wm. Co. (2000: 34%) Nearly 2 out of 3 (62.5%) of labor force commute out of Pr. Wm. Co. for work About 1 in 8 (14%) work outside of Virginia

Worked

  • utside of

County, 62.5% Worked in County, 37.5%

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 16 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

DJIA: peaked at over 14,100 in October 2007, lost over 54% of its value between October 2008 and March 2009, bottoming to 6,440 on March 9, 2009. Closed 2011 above 12,400.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 17 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

GDP: 1.8% in 3rd Quarter 2011, following 1.3% in 2nd Quarter, expanding, but at modest pace.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 18 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

Unemployment: Initial Claims

  • Outlook improved modestly in late 2011, but after falling to lowest level since 2008, initial

claims have steadily increased over past few weeks.

  • Businesses expected strong holiday sales growth and increased labor forces to meet

anticipated demand. As sales disappointed, which seems evident given the December retail sales report, firms may have cut back on staffing in January and reduced labor needs.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 19 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

Housing: New Construction Housing starts still at extremely low levels, but outlook improving.

  • First first time since peak of housing bubble, number of homes under construction increased

for three consecutive months.

  • Still too early to call bottom, but growth in number of homes under construction is encouraging.
  • Housing starts are now at highest level since April 2010 when homebuyer tax credit artificially

boosted production. Excluding that one-time event, housing starts are at their highest level since October 2008.

  • Increase in starts primarily due to a 25.3% surge in multifamily construction.
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 20 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

Automobile Sales

  • Auto sales surpassed recent highs from April as negative effects following Japanese

earthquake and tsunami -- which lowered inventory levels and elevated prices -- seem to have completely dissipated

  • Total U.S. light vehicle sales were up 9% y/y in December.
  • All motor vehicle manufacturers, with notable exception of Honda (-19% y/y), showed positive

growth in December.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 21 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

Retail Sales

  • Retail sales increased 0.1% in December after increasing an upwardly revised 0.4% (from

0.2%) in November

  • Consumers increased savings rate in December, suggests that consumer debt remains a

hindrance for current consumption.

  • Business conditions have notably improved over the last few months. That has led to higher

wages, better job security, stronger consumer confidence, overall better consumption outlook.

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 22 | January 18, 2012

Economy: State Economy: State

Employment and Wage Growth

  • Employment (3,596,042 in 2nd Quarter 2011) grew by 0.9% year-over-year
  • Average weekly wages ($949 in 2nd Quarter 2011) grew by 2.2% year-over-year
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 23 | January 18, 2012

Economy: State Economy: State

Unemployment Rate

  • Unemployment rate: 5.7% in November, 2011, compared to 6.6% one year earlier
  • Lowest monthly rate since Dec. 2008
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 24 | January 18, 2012

Economy: State Economy: State

Corporate Income Tax Receipts

  • Exceeded annual estimate by $55.7 million (7.3%) in FY 2011
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 25 | January 18, 2012

Economy: State Economy: State

Employment and Withholding

  • Employment Survey is starting to reflect actual withholding data
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 26 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Local Economy: Local

Unemployment

  • 4.7% in November 2011, compared to 5.5 one year earlier
  • 5 Years: civilian labor force increased by 7.3% in last year, while number of unemployed

persons increased by 101.6%

  • 1 Year: civilian labor force increased by 2.0% in last year, while number of unemployed

persons decreased by 26.5%

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 27 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Local Economy: Local

At-place Employment

  • At-place employment (108, 630 in 2nd Qtr.. 2011) grew by 3.5% in last year and 3.3% in 5

years

  • Establishments (7,557 in 2nd Qtr.. 2011) grew by 3.8% in last year and 17.7% in 5 years
  • Average weekly wage ($804 in 2nd Quarter 2011--$41,808 average annual salary) grew by

1.1% in last year and 12.4% in 5 years

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 28 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Local Economy: Local Residential Real Estate Residential Real Estate

  • Pr. Wm. Co. Residential Real Estate Market (Dec. 2011)

Home Sales: 435 (11.8 decrease y-o-y) Average Sale Price: $271,558 (0.7% decrease y-o-y) Average Days on the Market: 60 (48 days one year ago)

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 29 | January 18, 2012

J F M | A M J | J A S | O N D || J F M | A M J | J A S | O N D || J F M | A M J | J A S

2006 2007 2008

Economy: Foreclosures 2006 Economy: Foreclosures 2006-

  • 08

08

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 30 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Foreclosures 2006 Economy: Foreclosures 2006-

  • 11

11

Peak in July, September 2008 at nearly 800 per month October 2011: 87

  • Pr. Wm., Manassas, Manassas Park: over 18,000 recorded 2006-10
  • Pr. Wm. 2010-11 year-to-date (Jan.-Oct.): 37% decline
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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 31 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Local Sales Revenue Economy: Local Sales Revenue

November 2011: $4.3 million of sales tax revenue (4.4% increase y-o-y) 22 straight months of y-o-y increases)

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 32 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Commercial Inventory Economy: Commercial Inventory

December 2011Inventory

  • total commercial space(44.4 million sf) increase by 0.7% in last year and by

9.3% in Iast 5 years

  • Vacant space (8.7% in December 2011) decreased by 3.3% in last year but

increased by 39.9% in last 5 years

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 33 | January 18, 2012

Economy: Commercial Inventory Economy: Commercial Inventory

December 2011Inventory

  • Net of 7 new buildings in last year year, 93 net new buildings in 5 years
  • Occupied space increased by 1.1% in last year but increased by 3.5% in

last 5 years

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Prince William County Demographic and Economic Presentation 34 | January 18, 2012

Economy: National Economy: National

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Prince William County Prince William County Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics January 18, 2012 January 18, 2012

Bill Vaughan Bill Vaughan Chief Economist/County Demographer Chief Economist/County Demographer Prince William Co. Finance Dept. Prince William Co. Finance Dept. www.pwcgov.org www.pwcgov.org

Prince William County Prince William County Demographics and Economics Demographics and Economics January 18, 2012 January 18, 2012

Bill Vaughan Bill Vaughan Chief Economist/County Demographer Chief Economist/County Demographer Prince William Co. Finance Dept. Prince William Co. Finance Dept. www.pwcgov.org www.pwcgov.org