Presented by Brenda Hill, Deputy Director USDA, NASS, Pacific - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presented by Brenda Hill, Deputy Director USDA, NASS, Pacific - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Presented by Brenda Hill, Deputy Director USDA, NASS, Pacific Regional Office (PRO) July 5, 2018 Almond Subjective Forecast vs. Final Production 1998-2018 2.45 2.30 Final 2.15 Subjective 2.00 1.85 Billion Pounds 1.70 1.55 1.40 1.25

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Presented by Brenda Hill, Deputy Director

USDA, NASS, Pacific Regional Office (PRO) July 5, 2018

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0.50 0.65 0.80 0.95 1.10 1.25 1.40 1.55 1.70 1.85 2.00 2.15 2.30 2.45

Billion Pounds

Almond Subjective Forecast vs. Final Production

1998-2018

Final Subjective

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Almond Objective Forecast

 1,070,000 bearing acres in 2018  Sample: 853 orchard blocks  2 trees per orchard block  Sample represents the population  Field Work: May 29 – June 26  Use 50+ Enumerators  Random Path Method  Sample of Nuts taken and sent to sizing

station

 Sizers measure kernel weight, length, width,

thickness and grade

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Nuts being weighed at a sizing station

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 Samples are designed to take into account

variety, location, and age of planting

 Models are designed to produce a forecast

  • f all almond production at the state level

from the sample data

 Models do not forecast production by

  • variety. Separate models are run for

Nonpareil since there are a significant number of samples.

Sample & OM Models

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915 1,120 1,390 1,630 1,410 1,640 2,030 1,890 2,010 1,870 1,900 2,140 2,270

800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Million meat lbs. Year

ALMOND PRODUCTION - CALIFORNIA OM Forecast vs Final Estimate

Final Forecast

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Almond Set 2016 – 2018

Average nuts per tree

2016 2017 2018 % Change California 6,159 5,714 5,677

  • .6%
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3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

7,561 7,100 7,651 5,536 6,127 6,114

5,583 5,015

7,322 7,041 6,538 6,802 5,829 6,163

5,735

5,783 7,353 7,048 6,686 6,646 5,874 6,159

5,714

5,677

ALMONDS Nuts per Tree, by District

Sacramento Valley San Joaquin Valley State

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Almond Set per Tree by Variety, 2016-2018

2016 2017 2018

% Change

Butte

7,051 6,574 5,989

  • 8.9

California Types

6,114 5,216 6,354

+ 21.8

Carmel

5,849 5,456 6,353

+ 16.4

Monterey

5,739 4,655 5,362

+ 15.2

Nonpareil

5,583 5,717 4,924

  • 13.9

Padre

7,788 7,168 6,732

  • 6.1
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3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 7,482 6,571 6,141 6,121 5,239 5,583 5,717 4,924

NONPAREIL TYPE Nuts per Tree

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3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6,535 6,845 6,744 6,718 5,737 6,114 5,216 6,354

CALIFORNIA TYPE Nuts per Tree

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1.67 1.45 1.79 1.57 1.47 1.43 1.58 1.72 1.49 1.48 1.36 1.45 1.43 1.48 1.57 1.54 1,200 1,400 1,600 1,800 2,000 2,200 2,400 2,600 2,800 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 2.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

  • Lbs. per Acre

Grams

Average Nut Weight (grams) vs. Yield

Series1 Series2

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10.47 9.72 10.45 10.31 9.96 9.66 9.93 10.30 9.92 9.94 9.76 10.06 9.89 9.93 10.40 10.37 9.0 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millimeters

Year

ALMONDS Kernel Thickness, mm

13.30 12.34 13.35 12.91 12.39 12.30 13.10 13.20 12.52 12.51 12.11 12.69 12.58 12.44 12.83 12.79 11.5 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Millimeters Year

ALMONDS Kernel Width, mm

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97.6 98.4 97.7 97.3 98.5 99.0 98.9 98.7 98.7 99.1 98.9 98.7 98.8 98.8 98.3 98.8

95.0 96.0 97.0 98.0 99.0 100.0 101.0

Percent Year

ALMONDS PERCENT SOUND NUTS 2001-2016

22.24 22.44 23.73 21.64 21.81 21.60 22.96 23.38 21.84 21.40 21.35 21.42 21.43 22.09 22.50 21.32

20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 25.0

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Millimeters Year

CALIFORNIA ALMONDS Kernel Length, mm

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Forecast and all Statistics Available On-line

 PRO Web: www.nass.usda.gov/ca  NASS Web: www.nass.usda.gov  PRO Contact: (916) 738-6600

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2018 OM Almond Forecast

2.45 Billion Meat Pounds

(+ 7.9 Percent)

Bearing Acres: 1,070,000

(Trees Planted 2015 and earlier)

Yield: 2,290 Pounds (+.9% Percent)

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Thank you to the producers who allowed us to conduct this survey in their orchards.