Pot otentia ial i l impacts of of th the i e incr creased - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Pot otentia ial i l impacts of of th the i e incr creased - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Feb 13, 2023 449 likes •602 views

Pot otentia ial i l impacts of of th the i e incr creased deploymen ent of advanced ced d driver er a assistance ce systems on on th the n numbers of of kille led or or seriou ously i injured ed (KSI) I) c car occu

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SLIDE 1

Pot

  • tentia

ial i l impacts of

  • f th

the i e incr creased deploymen ent of advanced ced d driver er a assistance ce systems on

  • n th

the n numbers of

  • f kille

led or

  • r

seriou

  • usly i

injured ed (KSI) I) c car occu

  • ccupants,

ped edestria ians a and cy cyclis clists ts i in N Nor

  • rway

Alena Høye Truls Vaa Ingeborg Storesund Hesjevoll Institute of Transport Economics Oslo, Norway

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SLIDE 2

Passenger car: Head on; 23.9 % Passenger car: Off road; 20.0 % Passenger car: Rear-end 2.5 % Passenger car: Other 6.3 % Pedestrian in car crash 8.4 % Cyclist in car crash 4.4 % Other in car crash; 8.7 % Pedestrian, no car 4.1 % Cyclist, no car 4.3 % Other, no car 17.3 %

KSI in Norway (2010-2014)

Vulnerable road user warning with AEB LDW ACC +FCW +AEB ISA Alcolock Drug- lock

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SLIDE 3

ACC with forward collision warning (FCW) and automatic emergency brake (AEB)

  • Definition

‒ ACC regulates speed and headway (can be turned off) ‒ FCW warns, AEB brakes – Wide range of different systems ‒ “High speed”

  • Effect on KSI

‒ Affects rear-end collisions and most other collisions with motor vehicles ‒ Spare part calls, insurance claims, field/simulator studies, crash statistics ‒ Highly inconsistent findings ‒ Assumed -5.3 % KSI in passenger cars

!!! !!!

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SLIDE 4

Vulnerable road user warning with AEB

  • Definition

‒ Basic: Detects pedestrians in front of the car, AEB brakes ‒ Medium: … + cyclists ‒ Advanced: … + blind spot warning

  • Effect on KSI

‒ Field/simulator studies, crash statistics: Pedestrian/cyclist – car collisions ‒ Basic: -7 % KSI pedestrians in pedestrian-car crashes ‒ Medium: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -7 % KSI cyclists…. ‒ Advanced: -7 % KSI pedestrians, -8 % KSI cyclists….

!!! !!!

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SLIDE 5

Lane departure warning (LDW) / Autonomous lane keeping

  • Definition

‒ LDW: Warns the driver ‒ Autonomous lane keeping: Keeps the lane (in specific situations)

  • Effect on KSI

‒ Crash studies, field/simulator studies, crash statistics ‒ LDW: -6.4 % KSI in passenger cars ‒ Autonomous lane keeping: -15.8 % KSI in passenger cars

!!! !!!

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SLIDE 6

Intelligent speed adaptation (ISA)

  • Definition

‒ Informative: Warns the driver ‒ Overridable: Counterforce on the accelerator pedal ‒ Mandatory: Non-overridable

  • Effect on KSI

‒ ISA affects speed – Speed affects KSI ‒ Informative: -7.5 %; Overridable: -9.3 %; Mandatory: -16.2 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Involuntary drivers speed more + are less inclined to comply

Too fast!

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SLIDE 7

Alcohol ignition interlock / drug ignition interlock

  • Definition

‒ Alcolock: Prevents drunk driver from starting the engine ‒ Drug ignition interlock: … driver under the influence of drugs ….

  • Effect on KSI

‒ Alcohol/drugs – crash risk ‒ Alcolock: -11.1 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Drug ign. interlock: -14.6 % KSI in crashes with passenger car ‒ Max effect for most involuntary drivers ‒ More drunk/drug driving in older cars

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SLIDE 8

Uptake of driver assistance systems: Delphi survey

  • First round

‒ N = 51 ‒ 60% Norway; 30% Sweden ‒ 65% research; 24% administration; 6% car manufacturers ‒ Proportions of new cars with measure X? Mandatory?

  • Second round with feedback

‒ …

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SLIDE 9

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - voluntary

80 % 78 % 70 % 66 % 54 % 47 % 30 % 22 % 16 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030 ACC with FCW+AEB LDW ISA-informative Ped.-AEB

  • Auto. lane keeping

Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB Alcolock Drug ign. interlock ISA-mandatory

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SLIDE 10

Delphi-estimated years in which systems become mandatory

2033 2031 2030 2029 2029 2029 2028 2027 2027 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 0 % 20 % 40 % 60 % 80 % 100 % Mandatory in X years Mandatory? Yes

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SLIDE 11

Delphi-estimated penetration rates - by law

100 % 22 % 16 % 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % 80 % 90 % 100 % 2015 (TØI) 2015 2020 2025 2030 ACC with FCW+AEB LDW ISA-informative Ped.-AEB

  • Auto. lane keeping

Ped.+cyc.+blindspot-AEB Alcolock Drug ign. interlock ISA-mandatory

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SLIDE 12

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - light

  • 1.7 %
  • 0.3 %
  • 2.0 %
  • 1.5 %
  • 1.2 %
  • 4.6 %
  • 1.9 %
  • 0.4 %
  • 2.4 %
  • 1.5 %
  • 1.9 %
  • 5.6 %
  • 3.6 %
  • 0.7 %
  • 4.4 %
  • 6.1 %
  • 10.5 %
  • 19.7 %
  • 3.7 %
  • 0.7 %
  • 4.5 %
  • 7.5 %
  • 11.1 %
  • 21.5 %
  • 50%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0%

ACC with FCW+AEB

  • Ped. AEB

LDW ISA-info. Alcolock All "light" 2030: Delphi

  • voluntary

2030: Delphi

  • by law

2030: 100% of new cars from 2016 All

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SLIDE 13

Effects on KSI of increased deployment - advanced

  • 1.7 %
  • 0.3 %
  • 3.6 %
  • 1.6 %
  • 1.4 %
  • 8.5 %
  • 1.9 %
  • 0.5 %
  • 4.3 %
  • 1.6 %
  • 2.2 %
  • 10.0 %
  • 3.6 %
  • 1.1 %
  • 10.3 %
  • 13.7 %
  • 13.8 %
  • 36.8 %
  • 3.7 %
  • 1.2 %
  • 15.3 %
  • 16.2 %
  • 25.7 %
  • 48.9 %
  • 50%
  • 40%
  • 30%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0%

ACC with FCW+AEB Ped./cyc. AEB LDW+Aut.LK ISA-info./mand. Alco-/Druglock All "advanced" 2030: Delphi

  • voluntary

2030: Delphi

  • by law

2030: 100% of new cars from 2016 All

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SLIDE 14

Crap!