Post Gu 2012 August 24, 2012 Technical Donors Partner Swiss - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Information for Better Livelihoods Post Gu 2012 August 24, 2012 Technical Donors Partner Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC EUROPEAN COMMISSION

FSNAU Post Gu 2012 Assessment Overall Timeline FSNAU/Partner Planning Meeting (Nairobi) June 11, 2012 July 1 – July 10, 2012 Regional Planning Meetings (Field) July 11 – 26, 2012 Fieldwork July 29 – August 2, 2012 Regional Analysis Workshops (Field) August 6 – 17, 2012 All Team Analysis Workshops (Hargeysa) Vetting Meetings August 21 (Nut) & 22 (FS) Release of Results Post Gu ‘ 12 Presentation of Findings August 24, 2012 Regional Presentations in Somalia August 27 -28, 2012 Technical Series Reports September 20 (Nut) & 27 (FS)

FSNAU Gu 2012 Assessment Partner Participation Number of Partners Participating in Field Assessments Analysis Workshop and Vetting Food Security Field Assessment – Total 43 Nutrition Field Assessment – Total 25 National Institutions 2 Local NGOs 13 Local NGOs 5 International NGOs 4 International NGOs 7 Ministries 9 Ministries 8 UN 6 Local Authorities 3 FEWS NET 1 UN 2 Enumerators 8 Nutrition and Food Security Vetting – Total 21 Analysis Workshop – Total 32 Local NGOs 2 FEWS NET 2 International NGOs 4 WFP 2 WFP 5 FAO Sub-Regional Office 1 UNICEF 3 Food Security Cluster 3 OCHA 2 Nutrition Cluster 3 FAO 3 UNOCHA 2 FEWS NET 2 COOPI 1 Food Security Cluster 2 JRC (EU) 1 Government Focal Points (Somaliland and Puntland)17

Food Security Assessment Access and Field Monitoring Locations Deyr 2011/12 Gu 201 2

CLIMATE Gu 2012 Rainfall Performance GU 2012 RFE Percent from Normal (Long-Term Mean for April – June) • The Gu 2012 rains were average in most of the northern and parts of central regions. In most of the southern regions and some parts of central regions rains were sporadic and light in intensity; total rainfall was below the long term mean. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

CLIMATE Vegetation Conditions in the Gu 2012 Season NDVI eMODIS Anomaly period 36, June 21-30, 2012 Rangeland resources improved resulting from the cumulative effects of the good Deyr 2011/2012 performance and the Gu 2012 rains. However, compared to the average of ten years (2001-2010), rangeland resources are still significantly below average. Source: NOAA/CPC/FEWS NET

Expected Climatic Drivers & Impacts: Jul. 2012 – July/2013 Severe Mild Moderat e Neutral El Nino conditions gradually developing and increased chances in the coming months. El Nino tends to lead to above-average rains in October to December in the eastern sector of the GHA. Rainfall during the October to December season could also extend into January 2013

CLIMATE El-Nino Impacts on Recent Rainfall Performance Extreme (1997/98) Moderate (2006/7) Mild (2002/3) Rainfall Deficits Enhanced rainfall

August 1- 10 “Weak” La -Nina – to- Neutral August:2012 Assumption Matrix: eMODIS/NDVI CLIMATE Moderate El-Nino Dec. 2006 May. 2007

CIVIL INSECURITY Key Events (Jan-July 2012) • Sustained and escalated political conflict in parts of the South and Central; H otspots: South -Central • Confrontations/tensions in the Northern regions, particularly in Buhodle of Togdheer • Sustained conflicts over rangeland resources in parts of Central and North (Bacaadweyn, Gelinsoor & Dhabbad) • Intensified antipiracy operations by international taskforce and Puntland government • Improving security situation in Mogadishu Direct and Indirect Impact on Food and Livelihood Security • Continued internal and across border displacements • Constrained humanitarian access in parts of South-Central • Trade disruptions and restricted flow of commodities (L.Juba, Bakool, Buhodle-Togdher) • Asset destruction, losses, looting (Afgoye) Most Likely Scenario (August-December 2012) • Intensified conflict in parts of the South-Central • Displacement from urban areas in the hotspot regions • Disruption of trade and commodity flows in tense areas • Restriction of humanitarian activities in South and Central

AGRICULTURE Cereal Production Estimates  Southern Somalia:  Third lowest Gu cereal production since 1995 (44% of Gu PWA of 1995- 2011); sorghum and maize production of about 61,000MT  Off-season maize (Sept.-Oct. 2012) estimates will increase the cereal supply up to 63,000MT  The 2012 annual production ( Deyr + Gu + off-season) is above average (1995- 2010) as a result of good Deyr 2011/12 harvest  Northwest  Projection of above normal Gu/Karan cereal production (170% of PWA) in Northwest Agropastoral;  74% of the projected estimates in W. Galbeed region (Gabiley – 61% and Hargeisa - 13%).  2 nd harvest since Gu/Karan seasons in Northwest

AGRICULTURE Cereal Production Estimates Cont… Southern riverine areas :  Extremely low maize harvest in riverine areas of Lower Juba due to poor rainfall performance and dysfunctional irrigation infrastructure  Significantly low maize harvest in riverine areas of Middle Juba, Lower Shabelle, Gedo and Hiran  Higher than normal maize production in riverine areas of Middle Shabelle  Major maize producing regions of Shabelle (maize basket) account for over 85% of the total cereal production in southern Somalia Southern agropastoral areas  Extremely low sorghum harvest in agropastoral areas of Gedo, Hiran, Lower Juba, Middle Juba and Bay, due to poor rainfall performance. Significantly low sorghum harvest in Bakool  Higher or near normal sorghum harvest in Shabelle agropastoral areas (Middle Shabelle and Lower Shabelle)

AGRICULTURE Gu 2012 bad Crops Sorghum Crop Failure. Buulo Weyn, Jalalaqsi, Hiran, Sorghum Crop failure. Dhoobley, Bardhera Gedo, FSNAU, July, 2012 FSNAU, July, 2012 Sorghum Crop failure. Ba’adweyn, Hobyo, Mudug, Late Planted Sorghum Crop Failure. Goof Gadud, Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Nov. 2012 FSNAU, July, 2012

AGRICULTURE Gu 2012 Good Crops Good Maize Crop. Abalye, Bardhera, Gedo, Good Maize Crop - Harvested. Idiley, Bulo Burte, FSNAU, July 2012 Hiran, FSNAU, July, 2012 Average Maize and Watermelon Crops. Mataan, Average Sorghum Crop. Ufurow, Qansaha Dheere, Gabiley, W. Galbeed, FSNAU, July 20122 Bay, FSNAU, July 2012

AGRICULTURE Gu Cereal Production in Southern Somalia Gu 2012 as % of Gu 2012 as % of Gu 2012 Production in MT Gu 2012 as % Gu PWA 5 year average Regions of Gu 2011 Maize Sorghum Total Cereal (1995-2011) (2007-2011) 0 700 700 216% 39% 75% Bakool 1000 7,000 8,000 103% 21% 24% Bay 1,000 0 1,000 153% 21% 56% Gedo 700 1,000 2,000 299% 56% 152% Hiran 2,000 200 2,000 370% 24% 26% Juba Dhexe (Middle) 600 0 600 173% 11% 20% Juba Hoose (Lower) Shabelle Dhexe 12,000 7,000 19,000 557% 126% 209% (Middle) Shabelle Hoose 22,000 5,500 27,500 119% 46% 62% (Lower) 39,500 21,500 61,000 165% 44% 60% Gu 2012 Total

AGRICULTURE Regional Cereal (Maize and Sorghum) Contributions in Southern Somalia Maize Production Gu 2012 by Region Gu 2012 Cereal Production by Region Shabelle lower (hoose) 56% Shabelle Dhexe Bakool Bay (middle) Gedo Bakool Hiraan 13% 0% 2% 31% 1% 3% Bay Hiraan Juba Juba Gedo 2% 2% Hoose(lower) Dhexe(Middle) 3% Juba 1% 5% Dhexe(Middle) 3% Shabelle lower Sorghum Production Gu 2012 by Region (hoose) 46% Juba Hoose(lower) Hiraan 0% 6% Gedo Juba Juba 0% Dhexe(Middle) Hoose(lower) 1% 1% Bay 32% Shabelle Shabelle Dhexe (middle) Dhexe 31% (middle) 31% Bakool 4% Shabelle Lower (hoose) 26%

AGRICULTURE Gu Area Harvested Trends (1995-2012 ) - Southern Somalia

AGRICULTURE Trends in Cereal Production (Southern Somalia) Gu Cereal Production Trends (1995- Annual Cereal Production Trends (1996-2012) 2012)

AGRICULTURE Gu-Karan 2012 Cereal Establishment Estimates in Northwest Gu-Karan Cereal Production Estimates in Somaliland (North West) Gu 2012 Production in MT Gu-Karan Gu-Karan 2012 Gu-Karan 2012 2012 as % of as % of 5 year Regions as % of Gu- Gu-Karan average Maize Sorghum Total Cereal Karan 2011 PWA (2007-2011) (1998-2011) Awdal 855 7,600 8,455 225% 270% 296% Togdheer 15 190 205 60% 28% 17% Woqooyi 1,820 23,600 25,420 192% 157% 129% Galbeed Gu-Karan 2012 2,690 31,390 34,080 197% 170% 143% Total

AGRICULTURE Trends in Gu/Karan Cereal Establishment Projection Estimates (Northwest)

AGRICULTURE Other Crop Production Estimates in Somalia • Estimated production of other crops (watermelon, onion, sesame, cowpea, rice): 23,500MT  Onion: 9,000MT  Watermelon: 6,000MT  Sesame: 3,000MT  Cowpea: 3,000MT  Rice: 1,500 • More than a half of the production is from Hiran; the rest is from Northwest and Lower Shabelle • Other cash crops (fruit, lettuce, banana, cabbage, pumpkins, etc) are not estimated.

AGRICULTURE Gu 2012 Cash Crops Good Cowpea Crop. Kukato, Bardhera, Gedo, Good Onion Crop. Beletweyn, Hiran, FSNAU, FSNAU, July, 2012 July, 2012 Average Cowpea Crop. Baidoa, Bay, FSNAU, Good Rice Crop Being Harvested. Kalundi, Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July 2012 July 2012

AGRICULTURE Agricultural Labour Opportunities and Cereal Availabilty Presence of Labour Activity. – Rice harvest Sorghum Stock Availabilty at House Level. Bule Fuur, Qansah Dheere, Bay, FSNAU, July, 2012 Jowhar, M. Shabelle, FSNAU, July, 2012 Presence of Agricultural labour - Bunding. Beletweyn, Cereal Availabilty at Market Level. Baidoa, Bay, Hiran, FSNAU, July 2012 FSNAU, July 2012