Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. Disclaimer. This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Deutsche Telekom management with respect to future events. They include statements as
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 2
Disclaimer.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the current views of Deutsche Telekom management with respect to future events. They include statements as to market potential and future development of T-Mobile USA. They are generally identified by the words “expect,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimate,” “aim,” “goal,” “plan,” “will,” “seek,” “outlook” or similar expressions and include generally any information that relates to expectations or targets for revenue, adjusted EBITDA or other performance measures. Forward-looking statements are based on current plans, estimates and projections. You should consider them with caution. Such statements are subject to risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and are generally beyond Deutsche Telekom’s control, including those described in the sections “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Risk Factors” of the company’s Form 20-F report filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Among the relevant factors are the progress of Deutsche Telekom’s workforce reduction initiative and the impact of other significant strategic or business initiatives, including acquisitions, dispositions and business
- combinations. In addition, regulatory rulings, stronger than expected competition, technological change, litigation and supervisory
developments, among other factors, may have a material adverse effect on costs and revenue development. If these or other risks and uncertainties materialize, or if the assumptions underlying any of these statements prove incorrect, Deutsche Telekom’s actual results may be materially different from those expressed or implied by such statements. Deutsche Telekom can offer no assurance that its expectations or targets will be achieved. Deutsche Telekom does not assume any obligation to update forward-looking statements to take new information or future events into account or otherwise. Deutsche Telekom does not reconcile its adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and cash contribution guidance to a GAAP measure because it would require unreasonable efforts to do so. As a general matter, Deutsche Telekom does not predict the net effect of future special factors because of their uncertainty. Special factors and interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (including impairment losses) can be significant to the company’s results. Among the adjustments to be made in determining adjusted EBITDA in 2006 and 2007 will be the costs of the Group’s workforce adjustment initiative, which Deutsche Telekom estimates will result in costs and charges totaling approximately EUR 3.3 billion. In addition to figures prepared in accordance with IFRS or US GAAP, Deutsche Telekom presents non-GAAP financial performance measures, e.g., EBITDA, EBITDA margin, adjusted EBITDA, adjusted EBITDA margin, OIBDA, adjusted EBIT, adjusted net profit, free cash flow, gross debt and net debt. These non-GAAP measures should be considered in addition to, but not as a substitute for, the information prepared in accordance with IFRS or US GAAP. Non-GAAP financial performance measures are not subject to IFRS or US GAAP or any
- ther generally accepted accounting principles. Other companies may define these terms in different ways. For further information
relevant to the interpretation of these terms, please refer to the backup of this presentation and to the chapter “Reconciliation of pro forma figures” of the H1/06 Interim Report, which is also posted on Deutsche Telekom’s Investor Relations website at [www.deutschetelekom.com], and to the earnings releases published by T-Mobile USA and by Deutsche Telekom for its U.S. mobile
- perations.
NOTE: Auction 66 licenses subject to final FCC grant after application reviewed.
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. Kai-Uwe Ricke CEO Deutsche Telekom
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 4
Deutsche Telekom. 7 objectives – U.S. key component of group strategy.
- 1. Germany
- Defend position
- 2. Europe
- Increase revenue market share
- 3. USA
- Maximize revenue market share
- 4. Business Customers
- Target top 3 position in Europe
- 5. Innovation
- Focus on IP-TV, Mobile internet, ICT services and converged services
- 6. Service
- Import service models from U.S., achieve 80% ‘first done rate’
- 7. Efficiency
- Become the integrated telco with highest earnings in Europe
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 5
Deutsche Telekom. U.S. wireless – continued favorable market environment.
Industry growth Penetration headroom (high to mid 80s) Robust postpaid growth Landline replacement accelerating Strong growth and high acceptance of
mobile data services
Industry consolidation Price stability Quality up – churn down Regulatory environment works with market-
driven forces
In-country consolidation was allowed No threat of rate regulation
43 55 62 70 73 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2/06
Wireless penetration (%)1
2.73 2.36 2.35 1.95 1.80 2002 2003 2004 2005 Q2/06
Monthly churn rate (%)2
1 Source: CTIA. 2 Average of quarterly rates. Source: Merrill Lynch.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 6
T-Mobile USA. Success story – Consistent execution since acquisition1.
- 1
- 1.000
1. 1.000 000 2. 2.000 000 3. 3.000 000 4. 4.000 000 5. 5.000 000 Q2/01 Q4/01 Q2/02 Q4/02 Q2/03 Q4/03 Q2/04 Q4/04 Q2/05 Q4/05 Q2/06
- 5
- 5.000
5. 5.000 000 10. 10.000 000 15. 15.000 000 20. 20.000 000 25. 25.000 000 Servi rvice ce re rev. v. OI OIBDA/adj. E EBITDA DA Cu Cust stomers $ million $ million ‘000 ‘000
1 U.S. GAAP data. See backup to this presentation for reconciliation of OIBDA. OIBDA reconciliations for periods prior to Q3 2002 are not available.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 7
T-Mobile USA. Key revenue and EBITDA driver.
Contribution of TM US to group and TMO adj. EBITDA (%)
2004 2005 H1/06 10 24 16 34 19 40 DT TMO
Contribution of TM US to group and TMO revenue (%)
2004 2005 H1/06 16 35 20 40 22 43 DT TMO
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 8
Deutsche Telekom. Growing importance of international operations.
International contribution to group and TMO revenue (%)
2004 2005 H1/06 39 68 43 72 45 75 DT TMO
International contribution to group and TMO adj. EBITDA (%)
2004 2005 H1/06 31 56 36 63 37 66 DT TMO
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. René Obermann CEO T-Mobile International
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 10
Deutsche Telekom. Pioneering mobile data services.
Significant growth in non-voice revenues (H1/06) €2.0 billion total non-voice revenues (+23%) €0.6 billion non-voice non-SMS revenues (+36%) First carrier to launch open Internet product (“Web’n’walk”) First carrier to launch HSDPA in Germany Upgrade in Germany, U.K., Austria, Hungary, and the Netherlands already
completed
Speed to be increased to 7.2 Mbit/s by year-end 2007 HSDPA-capable data cards and handsets launched Leading hotspot provider in Europe and the U.S.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 11
Deutsche Telekom. Global T-Mobile business delivering group benefits.
Operational benefits – learning from the other side U.S.-style bundled tariffs (“best value for money”) launched in Europe Applying T-Mobile USA’s ‘Best in Class’ service models to European operations U.S. to benefit from T-Mobile Europe’s early lead in HSDPA U.S. benefits from T-Mobile’s global procurement of infrastructure, terminals
and others
Global scale 101 million customers1 €1.5 billion in hard global synergies in 2005, NPV (Net Present Value)
€11.7 billion
Soft synergies: brand, products/services, best practice groups Global procurement of handsets and infrastructure major contributor
1 Incl. PTC.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 12
T-Mobile USA. Auction 66 – Solid foundation to continue U.S. success story.
Key auction highlights: 120 licenses for $4.2 billion (€3.3 billion) Doubles average spectrum in top 100 markets (26 ⇒ 52 MHz) Reasonable valuation – $0.63 per MHz POP (total average: $0.54) Nationwide AWS spectrum layer with additional depths in key markets Enables future capacity growth and delivery of next-generation services
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. Robert Dotson CEO T-Mobile USA
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 14
Since 2002…America’s leading service provider
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 15
T-Mobile USA. Foundation in place for sustained success.
America’s #1 rated company in customer satisfaction
4 consecutive J.D. Power and Associates wins Only carrier to ever win all 6 regions—4 times Most recent win—this week! Multi-year wins in Customer Care and Retail
Battle-tested senior leadership team
10+ years together with added deep retail
and service expertise
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 16
Network a major driver of #1 ranking
T-Mobile fewest dropped calls across top 35 U.S. markets Communicating in New York, Chicago, L.A., Houston, Miami, etc.
T-Mobile USA. Operations positioned for future success.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 17
76% larger than biggest U.S. wireless competitor 101 million
T-Mobile USA. Global “Power-of-One” leverages scale.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 18
T-Mobile USA. Service strategy delivers sustained financial results.
Financial performance
$52 ARPU outpaces two largest
competitors
12% year over year OIBDA
growth
32% OIBDA margin rivals
carriers double our size 2G competing head-to-head w/3G
Data services $5.65 per user
(11% of total ARPU)
1 U.S. GAAP data. See backup to this presentation for reconciliation of OIBDA.
Q2 2005 Q2 2006 1.2 1.1
OIBDA1 ($ billion)
+11.9% Margin 33% 32% 60 52 50 49 Sprint TM US VZ Cingular
Q2 2006 ARPU ($)
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 19
T-Mobile USA. Commercial success leveraged by consumer insights.
Ratio of successful new services to introductions unrivaled
Over 1.5M converged device customers Blackberry phone innovator Sidekick top consumer device MDA and SDA T-Mobile HotSpots Largest global footprint of HotSpots
(including 8,000 U.S.)
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 20
T-Mobile USA. myFaves only beginning of real differentiation.
Consumer insight driven—18 months development
New UI, rate plan, service integration
across all devices and manufacturers
Unlimited calling to 5 people on any network People-centric interface Easiest interface in the industry—1 click
sm
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 21
T-Mobile USA. AWS spectrum both timely and strategic.
High growth areas spectrum challenged by success
Fastest postpay growth over past 12 months Voice: 17 hours/mo versus 3 hours/mo Europe1 Text: 130 SMS per postpay customer per month (industry leader)
Unwind of Cingular/TMUS Empire agreement in NYC
Reduced 40 MHz to 20 MHz by 2007 Increased number of base stations—future capacity advantage
- 1. Contract customers Q2 2006.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 22
T-Mobile USA. AWS spectrum both timely and strategic.
Adoption curve of 3G fits T-Mobile’s focus strategy
Adoption curve fits the consumer target Affordable handsets will hit market in next 12 months (under $230) Dramatically lower infrastructure cost of 2nd generation Services matching consumer applications—surfing, email, etc.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 23
T-Mobile USA. New spectrum fuels growth of Next Generation Networks (NGN).
Evolution of core technology--Not simple overlay Voice and data benefits
Lean future cost structure Most efficient voice network Harness IP convergence to unleash new services
New services drive effortless communications
Connections to “Your Network” Displacement of fixed landline Takes consumer PC functionality mobile Social communications
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 24
T-Mobile USA. AWS auction achieved every major objective.
- 1. Doubled spectrum position
- 2. Closed gap to other national carriers
- 3. Price per MHz/Pop below historical levels
- 4. Deep enough with 1.7/2.1 MHz to limit operations to only two bands
- 5. Pre-work to integrate banding and for network and devices paid off
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 25
T-Mobile USA. Scope and scale of network bulletproofing.
2005 geographic coverage footprint increased >50% Suburban focus Roaming agreements on 850 MHz and 1900 MHz
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 26
T-Mobile USA. Scope and scale of network bulletproofing.
>=30MHz (Additional areas after Auction 66) >=30MHz (Before Auction 66)
Doubled spectrum depth in top 100 markets From 26 MHz to 52 MHz
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 27
T-Mobile USA. AWS auction closed competitive disparity.
Consolidation created gap to national carriers Now at parity with PCS/cellular and SMR spectrum positions Achieved without loss of market position or momentum
1 PCS/cellular/SMR spectrum only (incl. AWS post auction).
56.8 49.8 40.3 25.9 Cingular Sprint VZ TM US
- Avg. spectrum1 Q2 2006
Top 100 markets
67.6 53.1 52.2 49.8 19.3 Cingular VZ TM US Sprint Cable
- Avg. spectrum1 post AWS auction
Top 100 markets
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 28
T-Mobile USA. Auction 66 – Attractive valuation.
$4.2 billion spend equivalent to $0.63 per MHz POP
39% less expensive than avg. historical price ($1.03 per MHz POP) 20 MHz New York spectrum for $0.4 billion
Historical spectrum price ranges ($ per MHz POP)
#4 0.62 #5 #10 #11 #22 #35 2nd #58 #66 1.33 1.94 0.28 0.26 4.18 1.60 1.07 0.54 Auction
A&B 1995 C 1996 C2 1996 D,E,F 1997 C,D,E 1999 C,F 2001 2003/4 Nextwave 2005 AWS 2006
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 29
T-Mobile USA. Depth sufficient to maintain 2 operational bands.
National average of 23.2 MHz
20 MHz AWS in Southeast, Central, West, Puerto Rico (30 MHz Hawaii) At least 10 MHz of AWS spectrum in Continental U.S.
New York and California pre-auction (PCS) amounts represent post Empire unwind position and without LA option.
Market PCS AWS Total New York 20 30 50 Los Angeles 20 30 50 Chicago 30 30 60 San Francisco 30 40 70 Houston 30 40 70 Detroit 30 30 60 Atlanta 30 40 70 Boston 20 30 50 Miami 20 40 60 Phoenix 30 30 60 Seattle 30 30 60 1900 1700/2100
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 30
T-Mobile USA The benefit of Next Generation Network today.
Deployment plans and technology have matured
Converged network greater reliability Lower cost Simple GSM overlays with small equipment
Alignment with Europe achieved
European learning and global cost benefit HSDPA ready to compliment UMTS Global scale leverages innovation
Devices and services have consumer relevance
Handset cost, size and performance improved Broadband adoption and applications in Web 2.0 world can be applied
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 31
T-Mobile USA. AWS success contemplated; powerful rollout underway.
Seasoned team acquired spectrum blocks that are easier to clear Head start on deployment
Planning and execution started in 2004
(e.g, Alcatel converged switching platform)
Parallel path on AWS band development with partners 50% complete on UMTS equipment rollout in New York
Handsets from current device partners underway Commercial rollout commencing mid 2007
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 32
T-Mobile USA. AWS Auction – Securing the long-term future of T-Mobile USA.
Supports future growth of U.S. core business Continuing leverage of the TMO European experience and scale Position us to attack mass consumer trends and commercial innovation
Post auction update. Deutsche Telekom. October 6, 2006. Karl-Gerhard Eick CFO Deutsche Telekom
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 34
Deutsche Telekom. Auction 66 – Impact on DT group guidance.
DT group guidance unchanged1 Capex 2006 (pre spectrum) at €9 billion plus €3.3 billion for spectrum 2007 at €7.5-8.0 billion Free cash flow2 2006 FCF (pre spectrum) at €5 billion, post spectrum at €1.7 billion 2007 FCF at €6 billion Auction timeline Upfront payment of $0.6 billion on July 17, 2006 Down payment of $0.3 billion on October 4, 2006 Final payment of $3.3 billion due October 19, 2006 Actual license grant occurs after FCC application review and, if not contested,
expected to be licensed routinely (e.g. 3 months after application filed)
1 PTC not yet included in guidance. 2 The figures for both years are after redundancy payments of around €1 billion each.
October 6, 2006 Investor Relations Page 35
Deutsche Telekom. T-Mobile USA – Solid business case post auction.
Key assumptions in current T-Mobile USA business plan Additional capacity enables higher market share in the future 35-40 million customers by 2015 Slightly rising ARPU due to new services Long-term EBITDA margin (in % of total revenues) above 35% Capex 2006 total approx. €5.6 billion, including €3.3 billion spectrum and the
remainder infrastructure and initial NGN costs
Total of up to €7 billion in 2007-9, of which €2 billion NGN infrastructure Long-term capex/sales below 10%