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Polling + Auctions Anna Karlin Agenda idealized An application of The Central Limit Theorem Polling A glimpse of auction theory Magic mushrooms He were Yesterday, Oregonians are voting on whether to legalize the F therapeutic use


  1. Polling + Auctions Anna Karlin

  2. Agenda idealized ● An application of The Central Limit Theorem – Polling ● A glimpse of auction theory

  3. Magic mushrooms He were Yesterday, Oregonians are voting on whether to legalize the F therapeutic use of “magic mushrooms”. If you take a "heroic" dose, supposedly, “the ego dissolves and the user feels inseparable from the rest of the universe.” to determine fraction of population Poll in favor be voting that will good estimate is this call up a random sample n how choose empirical Aachen report

  4. 19tinesortg20 accurate to within This 2 poll is estimate chance garbage answer 0 the of estimate within 2 is CLT à Polling on magic mushrooms the Aachen voting in favor N Population size p We don'tkno wp TN far 1 to n pick uniformly random person to call in favor voting in 1 X 0 O W Xn Xa X I 1 O O 0 I I I 0 500 h 271 Estivate n 0542 EX 271 500 5 1 2

  5. is Xi What kind of riv EAD Van F gth.eu wimprobp php TT.fyXi Bernoulli a p ftp.pq Bfenmmti.EE P PKP fI d Poisson X t empirical mean Vm ECI hpa p a rip X Ya pu p LL gkn b p TPH I independent va zx are P d E i Id Beep hate Van ay away'D

  6. The Central Limit Theorem Consider i.i.d. (independent, identically distributed) random vars X 1 , X 2 , X 3 , … Xn Where X i has μ = E[X i ] and σ 2 = Var[X i ] standardize As n → ∞, do O n µ, σ 2 ✓ ◆ M n = 1 I X Restated: As n → ∞, X i → N n n EEEpa.FI i =1 YefpiIfI

  7. Ht g at By PrflT P x.is Lidocaine s g agnnqyigasn i T n iIoo 4Iding fggqoghnemye.hn niswifrI Eksda ITT D.tn n T µ aagprfp Ipog o.o5 a m th CT

  8. I c I Nlp MIL LI pl Pr 0.05 5 panto PII Is Prf N 0,1 N is v INTEND a s D E p w fpm edz ns.t And

  9. And h I 0.02 Pr o.lrn tPrfzs ir Pr 2 2PrT rn prczeo.ir I 3 t E Es H i oICo.ir o_0 tan 543 o.aaeoIG.ir 7 32.33 air Toi.sofigin n'Io ITs

  10. The Standard Normal CDF ETH337 0.99

  11. pry 4 E a n Prf 14 a do not know p L prft4sb c Prf 14

  12. Beep Xp X Berge prcx.ie o XED Pr X PrfXoa l XEO

  13. END PIC Alex Tsun Joshua Fan

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