Plug-In Hybrid Modeling and Application: Cost / Benefit Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Plug-In Hybrid Modeling and Application: Cost / Benefit Analysis Presented at the 3 rd AVL Summer Conference on Automotive Simulation Technology: Modeling of Advanced Powertrain Systems Andrew Simpson National Renewable Energy Laboratory Thursday, 24 th August 2006 Dearborn, Michigan With support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy FreedomCAR and Vehicle Technologies Program NREL/PR-540-40504

Presentation Outline • What is a plug-in hybrid-electric vehicle (PHEV)? • Potential petroleum reduction from PHEVs • Simulation of PHEV efficiency and cost — Baseline vehicle assumptions — Powertrain technology scenarios — Components models (cost, mass, efficiency) • Results — Component sizing — Fuel Economy — Incremental cost — Payback scenarios • Conclusions & Next Steps 2

A Plug-In Hybrid-Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Fuel Flexibility BATTERY RECHARGE REGENERATIVE BRAKING PETROLEUM AND/OR ELECTRICITY ELECTRIC ACCESSORIES ADVANCED ENGINE ENGINE IDLE-OFF ENGINE DOWNSIZING 3

Some PHEV Definitions All-Electric Range (AER): After a full recharge, the total miles driven electrically (engine-off) before the engine turns on for the first time. Blended Mode : A charge-depleting operating mode in which the engine is used to supplement battery/motor power. PHEV20 : A PHEV with useable energy storage equivalent to 20 miles of driving energy on a reference driving cycle. NOTE : PHEV20 does not imply that the vehicle will achieve 20 miles of AER on the reference cycle nor any other driving cycle. Operating characteristics depend on the power ratings of components, the powertrain control strategy and the nature of the driving cycle 4

PHEV Key Benefits and Challenges KEY BENEFITS KEY CHALLENGES Consumer: • Lower “fuel” costs • Recharging locations • Fewer fill-ups ? • Home recharging convenience • Battery life • Fuel flexibility • Component packaging Nation: • Less petroleum use • Vehicle cost • Less greenhouse and regulated emissions Cost-Benefit Analysis • Energy diversity/security 5

National Driving Statistics: 1995 National Personal Transportation Survey Daily Mileage Distribution and Utility Factor Curve 100 Daily mileage distribution 90 Utility Factor curve 80 70 Probability (%) 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Daily Mileage (mi) 6

Potential Petroleum Reduction from PHEVs 100% Total Reduction in Petroleum Consumption (%) Battery energy 90% 80% 70% PHEV60 60% PHEV40 50% Challenging for Prius (Corolla) HEV technology 40% Escape Civic PHEV20 30% Accord 20% WHAT ARE THE Highlander Vue RELATIVE COSTS? 10% Battery power HEV 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Reduction in Charge-Sustaining Mode Petroleum Consumption (%) 7

PHEV Efficiency and Cost Model 70 100% engine Vehicle Configurations 60 motor 90% SOC 50 80% � conventional automatic 40 70% � pre-transmission parallel hybrid: 30 60% Power (kW) SOC (%) HEV or PHEV 20 50% 10 40% � 2 technology scenarios 0 30% – near term and long term -10 20% -20 10% -30 0% Approach 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Distance (mi) � Dynamic, power-flow simulation � Calculates component sizes and costs � Iterative mass-compounding � Measures fuel/electricity consumption using NREL-proposed revisions to SAE J1711 � Battery definition is key input to the simulation 8

Baseline Vehicle Characteristics – Midsize Sedan MIDSIZE SEDAN (AUTOMATIC) Platform Parameters Glider Mass 905 kg Curb Mass 1429 kg Test Mass 1565 kg (136 kg load) Gross Vehicle Mass (GVM) 1899 (470 kg load) Drag coefficient 0.30 2.27m 2 Frontal area Rolling resistance coefficient 0.009 Baseline accessory load 800 W elec. + 2900 W A/C Performance Parameters Standing acceleration 0-60 mph in 8.0 s Passing acceleration 40-60 mph in 5.3 s Top speed 110 mph Gradeability 6.5% at 55 mph at GVM with 2/3 fuel converter power Vehicle attributes Engine power 121 kW Fuel economy 22.2 / 35.2 / 26.6 mpg (urban / highway / composite, unadjusted) 9

Powertrain Technology Scenarios Battery Near-Term Scenario Long-Term Scenario Chemistry NiMH Li-Ion Module cost Double EPRI projections, see slide 12 EPRI projections, see slide 12 Packaging cost EPRI Same Module mass NiMH battery design function (Delucchi), see slide 12 Li-Ion battery design function (Delucchi), see slide 12 Packaging mass Delucchi Same Efficiency Scaleable model based on P/E ratio Same SOC window SOC design curve based on JCI data Same for NiMH cycle-life, see slide 11 (assumes Li-Ion achieves same cycle life as NiMH) Motor Near-Term Scenario Long-Term Scenario Mass DOE 2006 current status Based on GM Precept motor drive Efficiency 95% peak efficiency curve Same Cost EPRI (near term) EPRI (long term) Engine Near-Term Scenario Long-Term Scenario Mass Based on MY2003 production engines Same* Efficiency 35% peak efficiency curve Same* Cost EPRI Same* * Engine technologies were not improved so as to isolate the benefits of improved plug-in hybrid technology 10

Battery Definition as Key Input to Simulation Input parameters that define the battery in BLUE mass compounding Benefit of PHEV range plugging-in kWh/mi kWh usable (from simulation) Total MPG Benefit SOC window kWh total P/E ratio kW motor Benefit of DOH hybridization Performance kW engine constraints DOH = degree of hybridization 11

Battery SOC Design Window Battery SOC design curve for 15 year cycle life 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% Average daily SOC 70% 70% swing based on daily mileage distribution Design SOC window 60% 60% based on PHEV x 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% Daily mileage probability distribution 0% 0% 0 0 10 10 20 20 30 30 40 40 50 50 60 60 Daily Mileage / PHEV x Daily Mileage / PHEV x 12

Battery Models (Scaleable) Battery Design Functions Battery Cost Functions 50 20 10 1200 2000 NiMH (near-term scenario) LI-ION (long-term scenario) 1800 NiMH (near-term) 1000 1600 Li-Ion (long-term) Module Specific Cost ($/kWh) 1400 Specific Power (W/kg) 800 1200 1000 600 5 800 400 600 400 2 200 200 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Specific Energy (Wh/kg) Power-to-Energy Ratio (1/h) 13

Results: Battery Specifications Battery Power vs Energy for PHEVs Long-term scenario Midsize Sedans 20 10 6 4 120 PHEV2 100 PHEV5 PHEV10 80 Battery Power (kW) UDDS all-electric PHEV20 60 2 PHEV30 40 PHEV40 UDDS blended 1 PHEV50 20 PHEV60 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Total Battery Energy (kWh) 14

Results: Battery Specifications Reduction in Fuel Consumption vs Powertrain Cost Increment - Midsize Sedans $20,000 HEV0 Long-term scenario $18,000 LI-ION BATTERIES PHEV2 $16,000 PHEV5 Powertrain Cost Increment $14,000 PHEV10 $12,000 PHEV20 $10,000 PHEV30 $8,000 PHEV40 $6,000 PHEV50 $4,000 PHEV60 $2,000 UDDS AER vehicles $- 0 100 200 300 400 500 Reduction in Annual Fuel Consumption (gals.) 15

PHEV Energy Use PHEV Onboard Energy Use: Near and Long-Term Scenarios 600 10000 27 mpg Near-Term: Petroleum 9000 Long-Term: Petroleum Near-Term: Electricity Annual Petroleum Consumption (gals) 500 Annual Electricity Consumption (kWh) 8000 Long-Term: Electricity UDDS AER PHEVs 7000 400 6000 300 5000 4000 200 3000 2000 100 1000 0 0 Conventional HEV0 PHEV10 PHEV20 PHEV40 16

Powertrain Costs Comparison – Near Term Powertrain Costs (incl. retail markups) UDDS AER PHEVs $30,000 $27,851 Charging Plug $663 Battery Motor/Inverter $25,000 Transmission Engine $21,181 $663 $20,000 $19,251 $16,386 $663 $15,000 $12,889 $10,976 $8,296 $10,000 $3,907 $6,002 $2,677 $2,516 $2,414 $2,166 $5,000 $1,998 $2,057 $2,035 $2,018 $2,000 $4,004 $3,203 $3,079 $2,902 $2,995 $- Conventional HEV0 PHEV10 PHEV20 PHEV40 17

Powertrain Costs Comparison – Long Term Powertrain Costs (incl. retail markups) $30,000 Charging Plug Battery Motor/Inverter $25,000 Transmission Engine UDDS AER PHEVs $20,000 $17,249 $663 $14,261 $15,000 $663 $12,111 $663 $9,626 $9,073 $6,740 $10,000 $4,677 $2,523 $6,002 $1,924 $1,882 $1,842 $1,680 $5,000 $1,998 $2,022 $2,005 $2,012 $1,994 $4,004 $3,013 $2,876 $2,925 $2,964 $- Conventional HEV0 PHEV10 PHEV20 PHEV40 18

Overall Cost Comparison for HEVs and PHEVs Cumulative Vehicle plus Energy (Fuel/Elec.) Costs $60,000 Near-term scenario NIMH BATTERIES $50,000 $40,000 Cumulative Cost PHEV40 $30,000 PHEV20 PHEV10 $20,000 HEV0 $3.00 / gal. (today) CV $0.09¢/kWh (2005 average) $10,000 Maintenance costs not included, no discount rate applied $- 0 5 10 15 Years after purchase 19

Overall Cost Comparison for HEVs and PHEVs Cumulative Vehicle plus Energy (Fuel/Elec.) Costs $60,000 Long-term scenario LI-ION BATTERIES $50,000 $40,000 Cumulative Cost PHEV40 $30,000 PHEV20 PHEV10 $20,000 HEV0 $3.00 / gal. (today) CV $0.09¢/kWh (2005 average) $10,000 Maintenance costs not included, no discount rate applied $- 0 5 10 15 Years after purchase 20