SLIDE 1 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 1 of 19
PART 4A: The Plug-In Hybrid Car – Inventing the Plug-in Hybrid
P1
The first plug-in hybrid car in the US was shipped in December 2010. Because this new type of car used both gas and electricity, both needed to be included in MPG and CO2 Emissions calculations. As with battery electric cars, claims about the fuel economy of plug in hybrids were wildly inflated which led to it becoming the darling of American politicians and advocacy groups.
P2
An entirely new way to compute miles per gallon, called by the confusing name, Charging Routines, came out
- f the Prius conversion industry. A
review of the computation methodology later exposed important misrepresentations, but Congress had already bought into the plug in hybrid.
P3
A plug-in hybrid is a battery electric car with a gasoline engine that recharges the battery as the car is being driven. Such cars overcome the limited range of a battery car by using a gasoline engine as a “range extender”.
P4
The Chevrolet Volt was the first production plug-in hybrid. The first shipments occurred in December 2010.
SLIDE 2 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 2 of 19
P5
The automotive world had been surprised in August 2009 when new General Motors President Fritz Henderson announced a fuel economy rating of 230 miles per gallon for the forthcoming Volt. Suddenly, the concept of a plug-in hybrid was transformed from an extended range, mostly electric car, to a vehicle that claimed to have much higher miles per gallon than a battery electric vehicle or a hybrid
P6
Many scientists and members of the automotive press challenged the EPA to verify this number, arguing that such a number was simply not
- realistic. The EPA acknowledged that
it “had not tested a Chevy Volt and therefore could not confirm the fuel economy values claimed by GM.”
P7
But in the same statement the EPA praised “GM’s commitment to designing and building the car of the future – an American-made car that will save families money, significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create good paying American jobs.” The EPA has long been supportive of electric cars and its praise for the Volt is not unexpected, although not necessarily accurate.
P8
GM’s 230 miles-per-gallon number was obtained by first using the Department of Energy well to wheels method of determining miles-per- gallon equivalency. The Volt window sticker shows 36 kwh is used to drive 100 miles. To calculate the Volt MPG, the 100 miles is divided by 36 kwh giving 2.3 miles per kilowatt hour. This number is multiplied by 12.3 kilowatt hours per gallon giving 35 miles-per- gallon equivalent.
SLIDE 3 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 3 of 19
P9
Next GM applied a calculation from the Department of Energy’s Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFÉ) Standard that divides the 35 miles per gallon by an arbitrary value of 0.15. This gives the approximate 230 miles- per-gallon number quoted by GM’s president.
P10
This arbitrary value of 0.15 was defined in the 2000 Final Rule recorded in the U.S. Federal Register that established the DOE’s miles-per- gallon calculation method. Its purpose was to provide an incentive to automakers to include electric cars in their offerings—it was not intended to accurately represent their fuel economy.
P11
The EPA published a Volt window sticker in November 2010 – 14 months after GM’s 230 MPG announcement, with a fuel economy
- f 60 miles-per-gallon equivalent. With
the publication of this window sticker, GM agreed to stop using 230 MPG for the Volt’s miles-per-gallon value.
P12
It took a surprisingly long time – over a year - to resolve the original 230 miles-per- gallon claimed by GM. But while refuting the GM claim with the November 2010 window sticker, at the same time the EPA added another questionable way of determining miles-per-gallon equivalency which it called Charging Routines.
SLIDE 4 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 4 of 19
Part 4B: The Plug-In Hybrid – MPGe – Prius Conversions
P13
The new way of calculation Miles per gallon, was derived from an effort to convert conventional Priuses to so called Plug In Priuses.
P14
MPG calculations for plug-in hybrid vehicles differs from both the original EPA and Department of Energy
- methods. The calculation method
appears to have come from a movement that began in 2004 with the conversion of a standard Toyota Prius to a plug-in.
P15
Felix Kramer formed CalCar Initiatives in 2002 to advocate for plug-in hybrid
- cars. In 2004 Kramer and Ron
Gremban made a plug-in hybrid by adding lead acid batteries and a charger to a 2004 Prius. Their efforts were partially based on the work of
P16
Andy Frank, at that time a member of the faculty of the University of California at Davis, is often referred to as the “Father of the Pluggable Hybrid.” He has converted more than a dozen different vehicles to plug-in hybrids over a 20-year period.
SLIDE 5 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P17
One of these conversions was made to a General Motors EV1. A gasoline engine with an electric generator was added to the basic EV1 to charge the car’s batteries. This may have served as a concept model for the Volt.
P18
The idea of a plug-in hybrid car had been long supported by the electric power industry, particularly by the Electric Power Research Institute, known as EPRI.
P19
In 1991 EPRI formed a collaborative with General Motors, Ford, Chrysler and the Department of Energy to found the U.S. Advanced Battery Consortium in order to respond to the California Air Resources Board mandate for electric cars.
P20
An important concept document was published by EPRI in July 2001 with the title of “Comparing the Benefits and Impacts of Hybrid Electric Vehicle Options.” The report stated that the goal of the power industry was to pursue electric cars, including plug-in
- hybrids. EPRI provided financial
support to some plug-in hybrid advocates.
SLIDE 6
Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P21
In 2005 Calcars converted a newer version of Prius to a plugin using lithium-ion batteries. CalCars adopted the logo “100 + miles per gallon” for this car.
P22
CalCars miles-per-gallon claim was more than twice that of an unmodified Prius of the same model year, which had a fuel economy rating of 46 miles per gallon.
P23
The early fuel economy claims for converted Priuses gave the impression of dramatic miles per gallon breakthrough. However, the claims were more of a marketing breakthrough than an engineering one.
SLIDE 7 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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Part 4C: The Plug In Hybrid Car – Understanding Charging Routines
P24
Why were the MPG equivalent numbers for plug-ins so high? How were these numbers determined? It’s a complex and intriguing story. The EPA was involved briefly when it use the term Charging Routines to describe the method.
P25
Robert Lutz, the General Motors executive behind the Volt wrote in his 2010 book Chevrolet Volt: Charging into the Future “This is not about maximizing range or computationally getting the maximum efficiency. This is about permitting the average American to drive fully electrically most of the time but with the backup
P26
The computation method that provided such high fuel economy claims was first illustrated by Lutz, using the example of a person who charged his or her Volt once daily. Lutz said this person would get 150 miles per gallon.
P27
GMs method of calculating MPGe used three terms: DIST = Distance traveled between charges MPGg = Miles per Gallon of the gasoline engine MPGd = Miles Drivable between Charge - the number of miles that could be driven with a fully charged battery.
SLIDE 8 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P28
The formula for this MPGe method is the product of the Distance Traveled between charges and the miles per gallon for the gasoline engine ….
P29
…divided by the difference of the Distance Traveled between charges and the electric vehicle range possible
P30
Lutz obtained his 150 miles-per-gallon equivalent rating using 60 miles for Distance Driven, 50 miles per gallon for the gasoline engine, and an electric vehicle range of 40 miles. Solving this simple equation gives 150 miles-per-gallon equivalent.
P31
It appears that the EPA used this formula in its November 2010 window sticker for the Volt in the section entitled “Examples: Charging Routines” as was previously noted.
SLIDE 9 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P32
It shows how miles-per-gallon equivalent ratings differ depending on the distance traveled.
P33
The numbers used are listed on the Volt window sticker and include an electric vehicle range of 35 miles and a fuel economy value for the gasoline engine of 37 miles per gallon. (These numbers are lower than Lutz’s original estimate for Volt performance because the production Volt had lower performance than Lutz’s early prototypes.
P34
The EPA window sticker table shows three trip lengths of 45, 60, and 75 miles with respective 168, 89, and 69 miles per gallon equivalent.
P35
Note that miles per gallon equivalent will be different for each distance
- traveled. Also, note how the miles-
per-gallon equivalent is higher for shorter trips, for example 40- and 42- mile trips.
SLIDE 10 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P36
It is no wonder that in the mid-2000s, many small startup companies were founded to add lithium-ion batteries to Priuses in order to obtain a supposed fuel economy of 100 to 150 miles-per- gallon equivalent. Most went out of business after a few hundred Priuses were modified.
P37
One such company, Plug-In Conversions, developed a table for a wide range of plug-in hybrids applying the formula just shown for a variety of trip lengths and different electric vehicle ranges. There are 19 different miles-per-gallon numbers. The miles- per-gallon values range from 55 to 200 miles per gallon. The values in this table were verified using the Charging Routines formula discussed earlier.
P38
This method gives a highly inflated value for the fuel economy of plug-in hybrid
- cars. It essentially ignores the part of a trip fueled by electricity. The formula was
never published by conversion groups or the EPA; yet it appears to have been the basis for consistent and exaggerated fuel economy numbers.
SLIDE 11 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 11 of 19
Part 4D: The Plug In Hybrid Car – Selling the Plug-in Hybrid to Congress
P39
Unfortunately, Congress bought into the plug-in hybrid concept, based on its claims for very high fuel economy.
P40
In 2006 a plug-in Prius with a lithium- ion battery was taken to Washington for a demonstration to senators, members of Congress, and other political leaders.
P41
CalCars was one of the leading advocacy groups.
P42
Another was Set America Free, founded by ex-CIA head James Woolsey, ex-Secretary of State George Schultz, and Senator Joseph
- Lieberman. This organization was
established to lobby for plug-in hybrids.
SLIDE 12
Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 12 of 19
P43
Other lobbying groups were present in Washington to explain plug-in hybrids to Congressional members including Plug-in Partners
P44
Plug In America was another advocacy group lobbying for the plug- in hybrid.
P45
Key employees of the Electric Power Research Institute also spoke to Congress.
P46
The Plug-in Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Research Center of the University of California Institute of Transportation Studies was an important contributor.
SLIDE 13
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P47
Al Gore was shown the car.
P48
Former president Clinton rode in the car
P49
As did Senator Hillary Clinton
P50
Key plug-in hybrid advocates testified to Congress including Andy Frank, Roger Duncan of Plug-In Partners and Mark Duvall, director of electric transportation for the Electric Power Research Institute.
SLIDE 14
Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 14 of 19
P51
Author Sherry Boschert, in her 2006 book “Plug-in Hybrids – The Cars that Will Recharge America,” quotes many references to plug-in hybrids that could get 500 or 1000 miles per gallon depending on the fuel type and other circumstances.
P52
Barrack Obama became an early supporter of the plug-in hybrid. In a campaign speech in August 2005, Obama claimed that people could get 200 to 250 miles per gallon by driving a plug-in hybrid car.
P53
In a talk entitled “Securing Our Energy Future” in September 2005 then- Senator Obama said “experts believe that if we pump biofuels like E85 into a plug-in hybrid car, we can actually get up to 500 miles per gallon of gasoline.”
P54
In Lansing, Michigan in August 2008 presidential candidate Obama committed to getting one million 150 miles-per-gallon plug-in hybrids on our roads within seven years in a speech entitled “New Energy for America.”
SLIDE 15 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
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P55
Plug-in hybrids were not just Democratic proposals. President Bush in 2006 supported the concept of battery upgrades to existing Priuses that supposedly would boost their fuel economy to 150 miles-per-gallon equivalent.
P56
Almost all plug-in conversion work was done on conventional Priuses by small companies, who seemed to be
- ne of the sources for the 150 miles-
per-gallon claim for plug-in. However,
- ther organizations, who modified a
number of Priuses, found the high miles-per-gallon numbers could not be achieved and the conversion industry faded away.
P57
Finally, in May 2011, the EPA published a new window sticker for the Volt. It removed the 60 miles-per- gallon Combined Composite value and the Charging Routines Table that had been introduced in the November 2010 window sticker. The new sticker provided a separate MPGe rating for the electric motor and an MPG rating for the gasoline engine with no combined rating.
P58
This marked the end of a controversial period where creative mathematics was used to claim unrealistic miles per gallon equivalency. It also marked the end of the idea that plug-in hybrids offered a major MPG advantages over conventional hybrids.
SLIDE 16 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 16 of 19
Part 4E: The Plug In Hybrid Car – Questionable Math
P59
The Plug-In Hybrid effort was a well-
- rganized and well-funded effort to
sway political opinion on an untested technology.
P60
It combined the forces of private industry, advocacy groups, and universities.
P61
It created the lure similar to the founding of Apple computing – a few innovative young guys in a garage that were able to outwit the combined might of the automobile industry. But it was based on false metrics, untested by those who bought into the idea.
P62
Billions have been spent on all aspects of battery and plug-in hybrid
- cars. Other billions have been
invested by customers who accepted at face value the claims of companies, advocates and even the EPA. But the inflated claims cannot be substantiated.
SLIDE 17
Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 17 of 19
P63
The Union of Concerned Scientists Report State of Change, discussed earlier, showed that the plug-in hybrids have lower gasoline mileage than electric cars like the Leaf.
P64
The Volt range was 33-64 Miles per Gallon equivalent, with a weighted average for the whole country of 42 MPGe.
P65
The Argonne Greet system, earlier used to analyze battery electric vehicles, was also used to analyze Plug-In Hybrids for their CO2 emissions.
P66
The results verified the advantage of the conventional Prius over the Plug In hybrid Volt in terms of grams of CO2 per mile.
SLIDE 18 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 18 of 19
P67
The EPA Fuel economy website verifies this conclusion.
P68
Well to wheels emissions for the Volt are higher than the Prius on a measure of grams per mile traveled.
P69
Plug-in hybrids had their first full market year in 2011. Sales jumped in 2012 but growth was much smaller between 2012 and 2013 as well as between 2013 and 2014. Total sales for the four years were about 157,000, far less than the million plug-in hybrids forecasted by President Obama.
P70
Compared to the 1.5 million unit sales
- f conventional hybrids, the plug-in
versions have not made a strong showing.
SLIDE 19 Plug-In Folly Part 4 by Pat Murphy, Plan Curtail
November 2015 Plug-In Hybrids Page 19 of 19
P71
There may have been a benefit in spending so much money to give the plug in hybrid car a real test. New and useful technologies may come from it. But this meant the conventional hybrid did not get sufficient funding to compete with the
- Prius. Japan companies increased their hybrid market share. In one sense the US
government was funding GM’s plug in hybrid to counter the success of the Toyota Prius.
