Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software Michael Mace, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software Michael Mace, - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software Michael Mace, April 7, 2009 mike@rubiconconsulting.com @ g About Rubicon Help high tech organizations win markets through business and market strategy g gy Since 1999

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Platforms, ecosystems, and the future of software

Michael Mace, April 7, 2009 mike@rubiconconsulting.com @ g

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About Rubicon

  • Help high tech organizations win markets

through business and market strategy g gy

– Since 1999 – Practices: define, deliver, defend, optimize

Software ecosystems Page 2

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About me

  • Macintosh software developer

Apple

  • Apple

– Director of Mac platform marketing – Director of customer & competitive analysis – Director of customer & competitive analysis

  • Palm/PalmSource

– VP of product planning VP of product planning – Chief competitive officer

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Everybody wants a platform

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Where did this "platform" thing Where did this platform thing come from in the first place?

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Agenda

  • A quick history of software platforms

What makes a platform win?

  • What makes a platform win?
  • Where will the industry go next?

Software ecosystems Page 6

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W b h d b tt We remember hardware better than software

  • What's the

first first electronic computer? p

  • ENIAC 1946
  • ENIAC, 1946

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What was the first business computer?

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  • J. Lyons & Co.

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  • J. Lyons & Co.
  • 30,000 employees

150m meals a year

  • 150m meals a year
  • 36 miles of Swiss roll a day
  • ...all on paper

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1951: The first business computer

  • Lyons LEO, 1951

– Paid Cambridge $5k 5 000 sq are feet 4k of memor – 5,000 square feet, 4k of memory weighing half a ton

–Payroll, inventory, order management...

  • Processed an employee's wages in 1.5

seconds (vs. 8 minutes)

L

  • Lyons spun out as a

computer company

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David Caminer, the first business app programmer / systems analyst

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Software was synonymous with hardware with hardware

  • First verified use of term

"software"

  • John Tukey, 1958

– Statistician

software

Statistician

  • Princeton and Bell Labs

– Helped design the U2 – Popularized the term "bit"

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What was the first third party app?

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The first third-party app

  • Applied Data Research Autoflow,

1964

– An automatic flowcharting program

  • Also the first patented software

– RCA first then IBM – RCA first, then IBM – IBM: free clone – US government antitrust suit, 1969 – January 1, 1970: IBM unbundles

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The first third-party app

  • Martin Goetz

Project Manager – Project Manager, Autoflow – Holder of first software patent

  • Mike Guzik

– Lead programmer, Autoflow

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Computerworld, June1968

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1970s: Rise of the killer app

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1979: VisiCalc

  • "Visicalc could some day

become the software tail become the software tail that wags (and sells) the personal computer dog." p p g

– Ben Rosen, later the founder

  • f Compaq, writing as an

l t ith M St l

Dan Bricklin at the

analyst with Morgan Stanley

Dan Bricklin at the West Coast Computer Faire, May 1979

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1980s: Separation of OS from hardware

  • August 1980

– IBM signs Microsoft to supply the OS for to supply the OS for its new computer

  • August 1981

– IBM PC ships

  • 1982

– Microsoft licenses Microsoft licenses MS-DOS to 50 hardware manufacturers

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Agenda

  • A quick history of software platforms

What makes a platform win?

  • What makes a platform win?
  • Where will the industry go next?

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The web discovers APIs

  • Mashups

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Mobile discovers APIs

One-year growth in

  • Intense interest due to

recent successes of a

25,000

registered developers

recent successes of a certain mobile device

15 000 20,000 10,000 15,000 5,000

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Mobile discovers APIs

One-year growth in

  • Intense interest due to

recent successes of a

25,000

registered Palm developers

recent successes of a certain mobile device

15 000 20,000 10,000 15,000 5,000

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1998 1999

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"That's unfair"

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Reality: Most platforms fail

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Definition of failure depends

  • n your goal
  • n your goal

– Give me a marketing boost over h i i Need for developers Don't care the competition – Get developers to add features Don t care C h t I don't have time to develop – Address user problems and sub- Care somewhat dd ess use p ob e s a d sub markets that neither of us could have tackled alone Care a lot

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What motivates developers?

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How platforms fail

Almost impossible to Apps hard to find Store financials outrageous monetize g Inconsistent APIs (raises cost) Very hard to get on device

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The PC and Windows

  • The Rise

IBM drives belief in large user base – IBM drives belief in large user base – Hardware architecture permits powerful apps (for the time) – Open APIs Open APIs – Clone licensing drives additional growth; virtuous circle

  • The Decline

– Microsoft preys on successful software developers – Intel and Microsoft can't coordinate innovation

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The less friction, the more apps

  • Easy to develop

Powerful APIs great documentation and support uses – Powerful APIs, great documentation and support, uses existing tools/languages, easy to debug

  • Easy to sell

asy to se

– No artificial barriers, easy discovery, marketing, installation, billing, reasonable financials

  • Large user base

– Or the belief that it'll get large

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Pluses and minuses of iPhone ecosystem ecosystem

Strength Weakness

A f i li

APIs

Very capable App functionality limited

Develop-

Familiar if you're a Mac Nonstandard; Java and

p ment

y developer Flash missing

Store

Built in, pretty good terms Arbitrary screening by Apple price pressure Apple, price pressure

User base

Perception of world domination, high traffic seen by websites (Will it continue to grow?) by websites

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The ultimate ecosystem doesn't yet exist doesn t yet exist

  • Advantages of an integrated platform

Advantages of an integrated platform

– Great discovery, billing, support, APIs

  • Advantages of web app development

Advantages of web app development

– Lots of Ajax-style tools, instant deployment, huge user base, write once run anywhere

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Agenda

  • A quick history of software platforms

What makes a platform win?

  • What makes a platform win?
  • Where will the industry go next?

Software ecosystems Page 32

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Opportunity in disaggregation

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

  • Computers
  • Software that lets computers do multiple tasks
  • Independent software
  • OS platforms separated from

hardware hardware

  • Platforms

separated from OS

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"The Network is the Computer"

Application Windows PC hardware Solaris Application Solaris

  • r Java Sparc servers

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Problems

  • Latency

Richness of APIs

  • Richness of APIs
  • Access to on-device features and data

– High latency

  • Mobile makes it worse

– Limited bandwidth – High cost – Battery life – Limited capacity – Limited coverage

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Next: The OS disaggregates

Application Local hardware Local OS

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The Meta-Platform is the Computer

Cloud servers Cloud components Application L l OS Local hardware Local OS

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Local hardware

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Remember

  • If you're a developer

"Which platform gives me the best long term business – Which platform gives me the best long-term business proposition?"

  • If you're a platform vendor

you e a p at o e do

– "How can I create a better ecosystem than the other guy?"

  • Opportunity: Disaggregating the OS

– Balancing local and cloud OS services

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Discussion

  • mike@rubiconconsulting.com

http://mobileopportunity blogspot com

  • http://mobileopportunity.blogspot.com

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Win Markets

T d Ad i hi h h fi ki Trusted Advisors to high-tech firms seeking to transform their visions into strategies, strategies into plans, and plans into results. Practices: Define / Design / Defend / Optimize

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