PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE
London, 15 July 2019
PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE London, 15 July 2019 TODAYS AGENDA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE London, 15 July 2019 TODAYS AGENDA 10:00 Welcome 10:00-10:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 10:30-10:50 Elias Lekkos Chief Economist 10.50-11:20 Theodore Gnardellis | George Christopoulos
London, 15 July 2019
TODAY’S AGENDA
10:00 Welcome 10:00-10:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 10:30-10:50 Elias Lekkos Chief Economist 10.50-11:20 Theodore Gnardellis | George Christopoulos Piraeus Legacy Unit Strategy | Asset Sales 11:20-12:00 Q&A 12:00-12:10 Break 12:10-12:30 Eleni Vrettou Corporate & Investment Banking 12:30-12:50 George Georgakopoulos Piraeus Legacy Unit | NPE Servicer 12:50-13:20 Q&A 13:20-13:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 13:30 Closing Additional participants in Q&A: Tom Arvanitis (Piraeus Financial Markets), Chryssanthi Berbati (Investor Relations)
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
01
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
02
NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
03
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
04
NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
05
1.1 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | AT A GLANCE
5 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
2018 Capital Strengthening Plan Completion A Strategic Partnership with Intrum on NPE Servicing C New Roadmap “Agenda 2023” D 2015 Restructuring Plan Completion E NPE Strategy Execution on Track F New Business Picking-Up & Positive Jaws G B Enhancement of Capital Buffers by Recent Tier 2 Issue
1.2 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | CAPITAL
6 |
€0.5bn
€0.4bn
€0.4bn
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
€1.3bn
1.3 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | TIER 2
7 |
Allocation by Investor Type Allocation by Geography
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.4 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | NPE SERVICING
8 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.5 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | STRATEGY
9 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.6 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | RESTRUCTURING PLAN
10 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.7 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | NPE REDUCTION
11 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.8 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | PROFITABILITY
12 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.9 2018 CAPITAL ENHANCEMENT PLAN
13 | Actions Announcement Status RWA Relief
>> Avis [operating leasing company] Q1.18 ~€0.2bn >> Serbia [banking subsidiary] Q2.18 ~€0.3bn >> Romania [banking subsidiary] Q2.18 ~€0.6bn >> Amoeba [secured NPL portfolio] Q2.18 ~€0.4bn >> Arctos [unsecured NPL portfolio] Q2.18 ~€0.1bn >> Albania [banking subsidiary] Q3.18 ~€0.4bn >> Bulgaria [banking subsidiary] Q4.18 ~€0.7bn >> Other de-risking actions [non-core assets de-risking] Q4.18 ~€0.6bn >> Nemo [secured NPL portfolio] Q2.19 ~€0.3bn Total ~€3.6bn
The €3.6bn RWA Relief is Equivalent to €0.5bn Capital Enhancement for the Bank
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
14 |
1.10 2019 CAPITAL ENHANCEMENT PLAN
Management Actions Targeted Capital Improvement
~85bps
~80bps
Capital Position Strengthening through a Number of Additional Initiatives
Issued 26 Jun.19 NPE servicing agreement
160-200 bps
total initial guidance STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.11 CAPITAL TRAJECTORY POST RECENT TRANSACTIONS
15 |
Total Regulatory Capital (%, phased-in) Total Regulatory Capital (%, fully loaded)
Recent Transactions, Coupled with Return to Profitability, Strengthen Capital Position
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.12 PROJECTED CAPITAL EVOLUTION
16 |
Total Regulatory Capital (%)
+0.9% +0.8% +0.4%
e: estimate; f: forecast
Organic Capital Generation Supports Capital Development Going Forward
14.0% to 14.5% OCR
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.13 GREEK MARKET NPE TRAJECTORY
17 |
48% <20%
a: actual; f: forecast
NPE ratio 48% 47% 45% NPE GDP NPE/GDP €185bn €184bn €187bn €191bn €202bn 58% 57% 51% 43% 13%
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
The 3-year NPE Targeted Reduction Equals ~30% of GDP; Ambitious yet Feasible
1.14 REAL ESTATE MARKET TREND
18 | STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
Outlook for Real Estate Prices Embedded in Existing Plan
2017a 2018a 2019e 2020f 2021f Non-residential real estate price change 1.6% 5.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% Residential real estate price change
1.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6%
a: actual, e: estimate, f: forecast Source: Piraeus Economic Research, baseline scenario
Upside Potential to Collateral Valuations from Acceleration of Real Estate Price Recovery
approximately at €50-100mn
1.15 IMPROVED LIQUIDITY PROFILE
19 |
Domestic Deposits | €bn Liquidity Coverage Ratio (%)
>95%
Satisfactory Liquidity on the back of Deposit Restoration and Macroeconomic Stabilization
LDR c.85% STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.16 LOAN BALANCES
20 |
Gross Loans (€bn) New Loans (€bn, %)
Non performing exposures to be reduced as per plan Performing exposures: €15bn new loans and €2bn net curings to be offset by €7bn amortization and other Business lending is the driver of loan growth ~5 ~6
53 48
NPE PE ~4 3.1
+10
e: estimate; f: forecast
Loan Evolution Incorporates the Parallel Dynamics of De-risking and Healthy Loan Growth
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.17 ADJUSTED RETURNS TOOL
21 |
Adjusted Returns Tool Developed for Risk-Based Pricing, Fully Adopted by the Bank’s Business Units
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
Cost of Credit Risk Cost of Capital Cost of Liquidity Operating Expenses* Ancillary Revenues** Hurdle Rate
Cost Spread
Profit Margin Final Yield / Spread
ARoC
* Operating expenses soon to be introduced into the methodology ** Ancillary revenues have a positive contribution, thus reducing the Hurdle rate
The overall methodology aims at: optimizing capital allocation establishing a hurdle rate for every loan decision capturing term profitability, focusing on return maximization and credit loss mitigation enhancing the risk culture across the Bank
1.18 REVENUES & OPEX| POSITIVE JAWS
22 |
Operating Jaws (€bn)
a: actual; e: estimate; f: forecast
1.2
Positive Jaws Supported by Frontloaded Cost Cuts and Revenue Increase post 2020
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.19 NET INTEREST INCOME
23 |
(€mn) 2018a 2019e Interest Income 1,874 1,830 Loans & Bonds 1,770 1,715 Other 105 115 Interest Expense 465 430 Deposits 199 180 Interbank Funding 50 15 Debt Securities 6 25 Other 210 210 Net Interest Income 1,410 1,400 Current NII run rate at mid single digit increase NII going forward growing at low single digit pace per annum: yield from new assets will outpace increasing debt securities issuance costs Loan income to move into positive trajectory in line with new healthy disbursements
a: actual; e: estimate
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
(€mn) Q1.2019 % Assets Loans 13.1 0.09% Acquiring 12.1 0.08% Funds Transfer 11.9 0.08% Cards Issuance 9.5 0.07% Bancassurance 8.4 0.06% Letters of Guarantee 8.3 0.06% Payments 6.1 0.04% AM & Brokerage 5.5 0.04% FX Fees 3.8 0.03% Deposits 1.6 0.01% Other 7.7 0.05% Total Fee Income 88.0 0.61%
1.20 FEE & COMMISSION INCOME
24 |
Enhancement initiatives implemented to boost fees from all areas of business at par with gradual macroeconomic recovery Fees stemming from transaction banking, credit cards, payments and asset management / brokerage are expected to perform in line with our strategy
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
NFI to Grow Along with the Macro Recovery & Increasing Penetration to Specific Areas of Business
1.21 G&A COSTS
25 | (€mn)
5M.18 5M.19 yoy Rents 17 15
Maintenance 14 11
IT 13 10
Third Parties 25 20
Promotion, Subscriptions 14 12
Taxes 56 48
Other 18 12
Total G&A Costs 158 126
Current run rate of more than 15% reduction yoy Going forward, high single-digit pace of reduction Efficiencies to be further increased along with increasing digitalization, as well as the implementation of the NPE servicing agreement
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
G&A Costs Running at -20% Reduction Rate Boosting the Bank’s Efficiency Ratio
1.22 REVAMP OF GOVERNANCE & CONTROLS
26 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
1.23 LATEST FINANCIAL TRENDS
27 |
STRATEGIC OVERVIEW
Can the New Government Revive the Greek “Animal Spirits”?
2.1 ECONOMIC RECOVERY
29 |
Since 2017, the Greek Economy has been Range-bound Between 1.5%-2.0%
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
2019e 1.6% Source: ELSTAT, Piraeus Bank Research
2.2 NEW GOVERNMENT’S PLAN
30 |
Fiscal Stimulus
The New Government’s Plan to Reach “Escape Velocity”
Investment “Shock” Escape Velocity
Fiscal Neutrality €6bn €6bn €60bn
€0.5bn corporate tax rates cut in 2-years €0.45bn dividend tax rate cut €2.6bn personal income tax rate cut (up to €10,000) €0.8bn increase in the tax free income threshold by €1,000 for each child €1.02bn VAT rate cuts €0.3bn business fee gradual abolishment €0.4bn special solidarity levy gradual cut €0.4bn ENFIA (property tax) cut in 2-years Special incentives (doubling of the time for
new investments) €12bn in infrastructures €20-€25bn in tourism and shipping €15-€20bn in primary sector and food processing manufacturing €9bn in energy and the environment €10bn in R&D, Industry, logistics and PPP Efficiency Savings 4.0% Real GDP = €4.0bn tax revenues €0.2bn public consumption spending cut €1.19bn rationalization & improvement in DEKO & General Government Legal Entities €0.14bn interest payments cut for T-bills €0.15bn no public sector wage increase €0.3bn hiring / retirement ratio (1/5) €0.02bn unused real estate exploitation
€4bn €2bn
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: ND Elections 2019 Programme, Piraeus Bank Research
2.3 INVESTMENTS ENVIRONMENT
31 | Investments & Net Capital Stock (€bn)
For 2.0% Average GDP Growth we Need to “Crowd-in” €325bn of Investments
Non Financial Corporations Net vs Gross Fixed Capital Formation (€bn, current prices)
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Net Fixed Capital Formation
Disinvestment through depreciation
Stock 1989
Stock 2027
Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Source: ELSTAT, Piraeus Bank Research
1990 - 1999 2000 - 2008 2009 - 2018 2019 - 2027
2.4 ANIMAL SPIRITS
32 |
But after a Long Recession “Animal Spirits” are Dormant
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: EC DG ECFIN, Piraeus Bank Research
2.5 GREEK CORPORATES (i)
33 |
(7.9%)
a 668 b 2,985 c 3,477
d 1,289
good performers (35.5%) medium performers (41.3%) underperformers (15.3%)
Despite Popular Belief, Greece has a Substantial “Bankable” Corporate Universe
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
2.6 GREEK CORPORATES (ii)
34 | EBITDA margin Total liabilities to equity Net debt to EBITDA
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% SMEs Large Total
1 2 3 4 SMEs Large Total
10 20 30 SMEs Large Total
Dormant “Animal Spirits” Drive Defensive Corporate Balance-sheets to Extremes
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research
2.7 CREDIT ENVIRONMENT
35 |
Corporate Loans (annual % change)
But Corporate Credit is Recovering…
Corporate Loans (net flows €bn) Corporate Loans by sector (annual % change, Apr.19)
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank
Manufacturing, Mining & Quarrying Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Accommodation & Food Service Activities (Tourism) Storage & Transportation
Professional, scientific, technical, administrative & support activities
18.8 51.5
2.8 REAL ESTATE ENVIRONMENT
36 | Residential Real Estate Prices (annual % change) Non Residential Prices (annual % change) Real Estate FDI in Greece (€mn)
…as well as Real Estate Valuations
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank 4.0% 6.4%
0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 Q1/07 Q4/07 Q3/08 Q2/09 Q1/10 Q4/10 Q3/11 Q2/12 Q1/13 Q4/13 Q3/14 Q2/15 Q1/16 Q4/16 Q3/17 Q2/18 Q1/19
€392mn
2.9 TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
37 |
With Plenty of Entry Points for New Capital
Greece needs to reorient itself from a consumption-based to an export-based economy Emphasis on export-oriented sectors: Tourism, farming, food processing, oil refining, basic metals & minerals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals Even in sectors with a competitive advantage Greece needs infrastructure upgrades, ie 5-star resorts, yachting, convention centers, marketing & branding In sectors with less stellar prospects such as retail and wholesale trade, fish- farming, passenger shipping, telecoms, consolidation will create sectoral champions with improved margins Regulatory pressures to liberalize industries such as electricity, natural gas, waste processing & management, renewable energy Greece has a number of competitive advantages but needs to move up the Value Added Chain In several sectors and for a variety of reasons, a massive consolidation process has started More funding, either in the form of equity
Privatized assets & natural resources development will require substantial investment (equity or loans) Clusters can be created around privatized assets, ie ship-repair zone, logistics, cargo management, cruise tourism Banks commitment to reduce NPLs & Non Core Assets will create opportunities in real estate, insurance and leasing, hotels and in over-indebted but viable companies Greece is facing regulatory pressures to liberalize and privatize a number of sectors Greek banks have committed to reduce NPLs and restructure their balance sheets
GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK
Source: Piraeus Bank Research
3.1 OUR WORK UNTIL NOW
39 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Group NPE Development (€bn)
Coverage
96%
NPE Reduction of €5.5bn in 2018, the Largest Annual Reduction in the Greek Market
Restructuring Volumes (€bn)
12.0b 0bn
3.3 GROUP NPE UP TO 2021
40 | Inflows: €6.1bn
NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
amounts in €bn
NPE Reduction of €15bn until YE.21, of which Almost Half via Inorganic Actions
embedded in CoR guidance
provisions and collateral
3.2 NPE MOVEMENT DECOMPOSITION
41 |
George Handji nicolao u
Re-defaults Defaults
NPEs | Bank data (€bn)
Curings, Collections, Liquidations Write-offs Required effort per quarter on average until Dec.2021 Q2.19 - Q4.21 Sales Q1.18
30.8 28.3
Q2.18 Q3.18
27.5 26.4
Q4.18 Q1.19
25.9
Average Q1.18-Q1.19 Curings (0.6) Collections (0.2) Liquidations (0.1) Average Q2.19-Q4.21 Curings (0.6) Collections (0.1) Liquidations (0.2)
NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
3.4 SIGNIFICANT CURING POTENTIAL
42 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
(€bn) 0 dpd 1-89dpd >90dpd Denounced NPEs Business 5.6 1.9 2.0 8.4 17.9 Mortgages 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.8 6.2 Consumer 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.8 TOTAL 6.7 2.8 3.3 14.1 26.9
NPEs per Bucket (Mar.19)
NPΕ mix 25% 10% 12% 52% 100% [1] [2] [3] [1+2+3+4] [4]
25% of NPEs have 0days of Arrears; Pace of NPE Exits from Curings at €0.6bn per quarter
Cash Coverage Ratio (Mar.19) Forborne Loans (€12.3bn, Mar.19)
3.5 COVERAGE BY SEGMENT
43 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Mortgages Business Consumer Mortgages Business Total 95%
Total NPE coverage at
96%
Total NPL coverage at
121%
Consumer Total 100% Total 94% Total 130% Total 108% Total 104%
3.6 SYSTEMIC SOLUTIONS UNDER CONSIDERATION
44 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Asset Protection Scheme
by the Bank and Mezzanine sold to third party investors
subject to conditions
Asset Management Company
deferred tax credits (DTCs) to SPV
funded through Securitisation issue (Senior, Mezzanine, Subordinated)
and the Greek State
notes
with improvement in quality of capital
3.7 DE-RISKING STRATEGY
45 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Other assets Cash, Securities, Interbank
Asset Mix
Net NPEs Net PEs
100%
Interbank & Debt Securities Deposits Equity Other liabilities
2018 2023
100%
Liability Mix
100% 100% 12% 20% 23% 5% 42% 60% 24% 15% 9% 10% 72% 75% 12% 12% 7% 3%
2018 2023
3.8 NPE CLEAN-UP TARGETS
46 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
NPE PLAN 2021
Gross NPE Ratio Net NPE Ratio
2018
53% 27%
Single-digit NPE ratio in 2023
Through a mix of organic and inorganic actions
Agenda 2023
More outflows and less inflows
Supported by c.€20bn restructuring volumes in 2017-2021
Scheduled inorganic actions
Securitizations and NPE disposals
2023
~9% ~5%
Group NPE Balances (€bn)
3.9 NPE SALES
47 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
Project Amoeba: €1.4bn GBV, €2.0bn legal claim
2018 and concluded near end of Oct. 18
Project Arctos: €0.4bn GBV, €2.2bn legal claim
Investments Capital s.r.o. in Jun. 2018 and concluded at the end of Oct.18
Project Nemo: c.€0.5bn GBV, equal legal claim
Management LP in Jun.19 and concluded in early Jul.19
Project Iris: c.€0.7bn GBV, €1.7bn legal claim
business loans, leasing exposures
2019
completed
2018
completed completed
Amoeba Arctos Nemo Total Gross Book Value (€bn) 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 Price over GBV (%) 30% 13% 47% 30% Provision Coverage (%) 73% 90% 45% 70% RWA (€bn) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 Collateral (€bn) 0.5 n.a. 0.3 0.8 Discount over Collateral Value (%) 15% n.a. 4% Buyer Bain Capital APS DK
3.10 KEY DATA OF COMPLETED NPE SALES
48 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION
All 3 Sales Transactions have been Capital Accretive for Piraeus Bank (~25bps in total)
4.1 CIB | WHO WE ARE
50 |
Largest Greek Systemic Bank Uniquely Positioned to Capture Growth in Greece
Leading Market Position
Our Strengths
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.2 OUR BUSINESS
51 |
We serve all major sectors of the Greek economy providing full range of products and services through the largest network in Greece
Segments
Large, Structured Finance, Real Estate, Hotel & Tourism, Shipping, SME & Agri
Subsidiaries/ Non Bank Products
Factoring, Leasing & Securities
Bank Product factories
Syndications, TxB, Investment Banking, Green Banking
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.3 CIB TODAY
52 |
New Loans Generation
yield of stock portfolio (+40bps)
€0.8bn is already credit approved
Revenues
NII
(€mn)
Fees
(€mn)
New loans
(€bn)
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.4 OUR STRATEGY
53 |
Grow, Streamline, Protect Protect Grow Streamline
The Customer Our People
at the center
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.5 OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES
54 |
Achieve Sustainable Profitable Growth, Placing the Customer at the Epicenter of What We Do
Grow Streamline Protect
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.6 DIGITAL TRANSACTION BANKING
55 |
An integrated business model that will create a connected corporate banking experience and uninterrupted transaction flow Transaction Banking Suite
Collections
Simplify bookkeeping
Payments
All-in-one A better grip
Cash Management Trade Finance
Smarter financing
Factoring
Safeguard cash flow
Treasury
Maximize cash performance
Analytics
Deep dive into data
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
4.7 NEW STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP
56 | CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
Collaboration for Solutions to Greek Shipping Companies
manage balance sheet, the Bank is currently exploring to enter into a strategic partnership with a major Asian Pacific financial conglomerate
tailored and competitive funding solutions to Greek shipping companies
both a one-off fee paid to the Bank for its services and a recurring annual fee for ancillary services to be provided over the tenure of each facility
Business Rationale for the Strategic Partnership
increase fees and expand market share in a vital sector for the Greek economy possibility to increase access to capital and
business areas via the deepening of the relationship with the said conglomerate
partner’s balance sheet and lower cost of capital allowing a more efficient and profitable use of its experience and resources in the shipping sector
4.8 THE WAY FORWARD
57 |
Our Ambition
Defend and grow market share at the sectors of focus Grow revenues generate sustainable, sticky fee income
Our Targets
CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS
5.1 PIRAEUS AND INTRUM JOIN FORCES
59 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
5.2 BENEFITS OF THE TRANSACTION
60 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
Facilitation of sizeable inorganic actions
Enhanced
Performance Culture
Bank retains upside potential
Re-focus on core banking Leverage with Intrum expertise Enhancement of Piraeus’ NPE recovery prospects, facilitating the
Participation in the enterprise value growth of the servicer companies; Piraeus retains assets and proceeds on its balance sheet PPI savings (cost relief minus fixed AuM fees) of c.€50mn per annum in 2020-2021; overall boost of effectiveness in the management of NPEs Independent servicer with the scale and capabilities to service large portfolios, facilitating future securitizations and systemic solutions Management team will re-focus on core banking activities, yielding improved results for the Group
5.3 BUSINESS LOGIC AT A GLANCE
61 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
Strong business logic behind the long-term strategic partnership - creating value for other stakeholders
RBU Employees
development opportunities
Clients & Customers
Greek Society
5.4 TRANSACTION FACTSHEET
62 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
Serviced Perimeter Existing non-performing loans plus forborne / early arrears loans and REOs, as well as any new inflows €27bn loan exposures and €1bn REOs in the perimeter (est. Q4.2019 figures) Timeline The two parties aim for transaction closing on 1 October 2019 Board of Directors Comprised of both parties’ executives Valuation The agreement values the 100% of the platform at €410mn. Intrum has agreed to acquire 80% for a purchase price of €328mn Shareholder Structure 80% of the new servicer company will be held by Intrum and 20% by Piraeus Bank Contract Duration Initial term of 10 years Management George Georgakopoulos will assume the role of CEO in the 2 servicer companies Employees c.1,300 people will be employed in the new servicer companies Structure The majority of the serviced NPE portfolio to be transferred to and held by a securitization SPV
5.5 PROGRESS AT A GLANCE
63 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
Piraeus Bank ServiceCo Shares Recovery Banking Unit Step 1: Transfer of RBU Business to ServiceCo Piraeus Bank ServiceCo Step 2: Sale of ServiceCo, including a long-term SLA Intrum Shares in ServiceCo Consideration Long-term SLA 80% 20%
Note: diagrams do not explicitly show the creation and sale of the REO servicing company, which follows the same structure
5.6 PIRAEUS’ RBU OVERVIEW
64 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
FTEs
servicing perimeter
Formal establishment of the RBU in Q4.2013, based on internal workout and restructuring teams, as well as top talent from the core Bank Servicing retail and commercial exposures across a variety of specialized sub-segments Significant investments in the operating platform, processes, product suite and governance Active involvement and facilitation of previous and ongoing NPE transactions by the RBU; the best NPE reduction performance in 2018
Collections Restructuring Legal actions
Piraeus' Recovery Banking Unit
The most advanced NPE management unit in Greece
RBU Core Activities
5.7 INTRUM OVERVIEW
65 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
management chain; c.80k clients
market leader in the majority of them; 160 partner countries
Intrum Key Metrics - Q1 2019 LTM (SEKmn) (EURmn)
Revenues 14,079 1,357 EBIT Adjusted 4,877 470 Cash EBITDA 10,283 991 Employees >10,000 >10,000
5.8 PREPARATIONS FRONTLOADED
66 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
business to ensure autonomous operational continuity of the servicer companies, by:
calculation tools
servicer companies
▪ Implementation
steps for the transfer of the Piraeus RBU business defined
▪ Operational
readiness and set- up of 13 dedicated workstreams
▪ New servicer
companies fully up and running
End of May
▪ Piraeus and Intrum have
started preparations for the implementation phase of the transaction early in the process
▪ Target is for the new
servicer companies to be ready by 1 October 2019
▪ The new NPE servicer
company will be licensed by the Bank of Greece
SCOPE Pre-Signing
End of September
APPROACH Pre-Signing Post-Signing - Implementation Completion
5.9 EXECUTION
67 |
Steering Committee
Weekly Jour Fixe PMO Meeting
PMO Team
Workstream Managers Steering Committee Owners
Functions involved
Compliance & GDPR PB Organization & Governance HR Credit & Delegated authorities Technology Ops set-up
(premises, facilities, branches)
Billing Engine, KPIs Regulatory & Incorporation Securitization and related processes Core Processes and Invoicing
▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Corporate
Governance
▪ Organosis ▪ Finance & MIS ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Credit ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Legal ▪ Procurement ▪ Branches ▪ Finance & MIS ▪ Legal ▪ IT Facilities ▪ HR ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Finance ▪ IT ▪ Operations ▪ Treasury ▪ Tax ▪ Accounting ▪ Corporate
Servicing Unit
▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Finance ▪ Regulatory
Affairs
▪ Legal ▪ Strategy ▪ RBU ▪ HR ▪ Participations ▪ Finance ▪ Compliance ▪ Inv. Relations ▪ HR ▪ Legal ▪ Operations
1 6 5 7 8 2 9 10 4 3 11
Cost Monitoring
ServiceCo set-up
12
Communicati
Intrum ownership
NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
5.10 FINANCIAL IMPACT
68 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
10-year period Up to 2021 2019
cumulative net income impact c.€100mn, including upfront consideration proceeds
include any acceleration in the execution of Piraeus’ NPE reduction strategy
minus fixed AuM fees) of c.€115mn cumulatively (Q4.19 to end-2021)
existing NPE plan expected to be booked in the CoR line
through to 2021 of c.55-60bps as per existing NPE plan
performance vs existing NPE plan, net capital result through to 2021 increases to c.100bps
will arise from the €0.4bn valuation of the NPE servicing platform
2019; marginal operating P&L impact from Q4.2019
5.11 BASELINE FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS
69 |
2019-2021 Net Income (€bn) 2019-2021 PPI (€bn)
NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT
The Illustrated Impact Takes into Account the Baseline Scenario of our NPE Plan Execution
AGENDA 2023: KEY PILLARS
71 |
Value Creation by the Leading Bank in Greece
Efficiency & Simplification De-risking
Growth
CLOSING REMARKS
2023 ROADMAP
72 |
Restoration of Fundamentals in the Baseline Scenario 2018
54% 51% losses ~200bps above the expected requirement high single-digit return single-digit ratio low 40s RoTΕ NPE Regulatory Capital Cost to income 14.0%
CLOSING REMARKS
ROA DRIVERS
73 |
a: actual; f: forecast
Pre-Tax RoA Improvement Driven by Cost Efficiency
Growth and development of the business Efficiency increase and simplification De-risking and cost of risk normalization
+0.1% +0.5% +0.2%
CLOSING REMARKS
Pre- tax RoA
Disclaimer
The accompanying presentation has been prepared by Piraeus Bank S.A. and its subsidiaries and affiliates (the “Bank” or “We”) solely for informational purposes. For the purposes of this disclaimer, the presentation that follows shall mean and include materials, including and together with any oral commentary or presentation and any question-and-answer session. By attending a meeting at which the presentation is made, or otherwise viewing or accessing the presentation, whether live or recorded, you will be deemed to have agreed to the following restrictions and acknowledged that you understand the legal and regulatory sanctions attached to the misuse, disclosure or improper circulation of the presentation or any information contained herein. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or a recommendation to buy or invest in any form of security issued by the Bank or its subsidiaries or affiliates nor does it constitute an offer or commitment to lend, syndicate or arrange a financing, underwrite or purchase or act as an agent or advisor or in any other capacity with respect to any transaction, or to commit capital. This presentation is not intended to provide a basis for evaluations and does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or other advice and does not take into account your objectives or legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or financial situation or particular needs. No representation, warranty or undertaking is being made and no reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation in making any investment decision in relation to any form of security issued by the Bank or its subsidiaries or affiliates or for any other transaction. You are solely responsible for forming your own opinions and conclusions on such matters and for making your own independent assessment of the Bank. You are solely responsible for seeking independent professional advice in relation to the Bank and you should consult with your own advisers as to the legal, tax, business, financial and related aspects and/or consequences of any investment decision. No responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for any of the information or for any action taken by you or any of your officers, employees, agents or associates on the basis of such information. This presentation does not purport to be comprehensive and no representation, warranty or undertaking is made hereby or is to be implied by any person as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of the information contained in this
herein and/or omissions therefrom or from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise in connection therewith. The Bank, its financial and other advisors, and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and representatives accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information in this presentation or in connection therewith. Certain information contained in this presentation is based on estimates or expectations of the Bank, and there can be no assurance that these estimates or expectations are or will prove to be accurate. This presentation speaks only as of the date hereof and neither the Bank nor any other person gives any undertaking, or is under any obligation, to update any of the information contained in this presentation, including forward-looking statements, for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to the date of this presentation. Each recipient acknowledges that neither it nor the Bank intends that the Bank act or be responsible as a fiduciary to such attendee or recipient, its management, stockholders, creditors or any other person. By accepting and providing this document, each attendee or recipient and the Bank, respectively, expressly disclaims any fiduciary relationship and agrees that each recipient is responsible for making its own independent judgment with respect to the Bank and any other matters regarding this document. The Bank has included certain non-IFRS financial measures in this presentation. These measurements may not be comparable to those of other companies. Reference to these non-IFRS financial measures should be considered in addition to IFRS financial measures, but should not be considered a substitute for results that are presented in accordance with IFRS. Certain statements contained in this presentation that are not statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including the words “targets,” “believes,” “expects,” “aims,” “intends,” “may,” “anticipates,” “would,” “could” or similar expressions or the negative thereof, constitute forward-looking statements, notwithstanding that such statements are not specifically identified. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements which are not statements of historical fact and may include, among other things, statements relating to the Bank’s strategies, plans, objectives, initiatives and targets, its businesses, outlook, political, economic or other conditions in Greece or elsewhere, the Bank’s financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures and development of markets and anticipated cost savings and synergies, as well as the intention and beliefs of the Bank and/or its management or directors concerning the foregoing. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict and outside of the control of the Bank. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed in such forward-looking statements. We have based these assumptions on information currently available to us, and if any one or more of these assumptions turn out to be incorrect, actual market results may differ significantly. While we do not know what impact any such differences may have on our business, if there are such differences, our future results of operations and financial condition, could be materially adversely affected. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statements are made. The Bank expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.
PIRAEUS BANK GROUP HEADQUARTERS
4, Amerikis Str., 105 64 Athens, Greece
www.piraeusbankgroup.com