PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE London, 15 July 2019 TODAYS AGENDA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE London, 15 July 2019 TODAYS AGENDA - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE London, 15 July 2019 TODAYS AGENDA 10:00 Welcome 10:00-10:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 10:30-10:50 Elias Lekkos Chief Economist 10.50-11:20 Theodore Gnardellis | George Christopoulos


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SLIDE 1

PIRAEUS BANK INVESTOR UPDATE

London, 15 July 2019

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SLIDE 2

TODAY’S AGENDA

10:00 Welcome 10:00-10:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 10:30-10:50 Elias Lekkos Chief Economist 10.50-11:20 Theodore Gnardellis | George Christopoulos Piraeus Legacy Unit Strategy | Asset Sales 11:20-12:00 Q&A 12:00-12:10 Break 12:10-12:30 Eleni Vrettou Corporate & Investment Banking 12:30-12:50 George Georgakopoulos Piraeus Legacy Unit | NPE Servicer 12:50-13:20 Q&A 13:20-13:30 Christos Megalou Chief Executive Officer 13:30 Closing Additional participants in Q&A: Tom Arvanitis (Piraeus Financial Markets), Chryssanthi Berbati (Investor Relations)

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SLIDE 3

Discussion Items

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

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SLIDE 4

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 5

1.1 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | AT A GLANCE

5 |

01

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

2018 Capital Strengthening Plan Completion A Strategic Partnership with Intrum on NPE Servicing C New Roadmap “Agenda 2023” D 2015 Restructuring Plan Completion E NPE Strategy Execution on Track F New Business Picking-Up & Positive Jaws G B Enhancement of Capital Buffers by Recent Tier 2 Issue

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SLIDE 6

1.2 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | CAPITAL

6 |

2018 Capital Strengthening Plan Completion A

  • The internal capital actions of 2018 have been concluded

€0.5bn

  • A 10NC5 Tier 2 was issued on 26 June 2019

€0.4bn

  • Additional initiatives are executed (eg NPE servicing agreement)

€0.4bn

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

€1.3bn

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SLIDE 7

1.3 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | TIER 2

7 |

Enhancement of Capital Buffers by Recent Tier 2 Issue

Allocation by Investor Type Allocation by Geography

B

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 8

1.4 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | NPE SERVICING

8 |

Strategic Partnership with Intrum on NPE Servicing C

  • New servicer company for the management of NPEs & REOs
  • Market-leading independent NPE servicer
  • 80% of the new servicer company will be held by Intrum & 20% by Piraeus Bank
  • Expectation for a material boost to the execution of Piraeus’ de-risking strategy

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 9

1.5 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | STRATEGY

9 |

New Roadmap “Agenda 2023” D

  • Piraeus Bank introduced its new strategic roadmap with the following targets:
  • Cost-to-Income ratio at low 40s
  • Non Performing Exposures at single-digit ratio
  • Return on Tangible Equity at high single-digit
  • Regulatory Capital ratio at ~200bps above requirement

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 10

1.6 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | RESTRUCTURING PLAN

10 |

2015 Restructuring Plan Completion E

  • Greek operations commitments completed (eg headcount, branches, costs, LDR)
  • International divestments concluded (eg Serbia, Romania, Albania, Bulgaria)

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 11

1.7 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | NPE REDUCTION

11 |

NPE Strategy Execution on Track F

  • 6M.19 NPE reduction as per target
  • NPE sales of €2.3bn GBV completed in one year, €0.7bn NPE sale at BO phase
  • More than €2bn RRE-based securitization in preparation, planned for early 2020

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 12

1.8 OUR DEVELOPMENTS | PROFITABILITY

12 |

New Business Picking-Up & Positive Jaws G

  • Healthy business demand emerging in sectors geared to growth and exports
  • Target for €4bn new loans in 2019 vs €3bn in 2018; €1.9bn in H1.19
  • Credit decisions based on the Bank’s Adjusted Returns Tool (“ART”)
  • Earnings capacity supported by both top line and OpEx improvement

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 13

1.9 2018 CAPITAL ENHANCEMENT PLAN

13 | Actions Announcement Status RWA Relief

>> Avis [operating leasing company] Q1.18 ~€0.2bn >> Serbia [banking subsidiary] Q2.18 ~€0.3bn >> Romania [banking subsidiary] Q2.18 ~€0.6bn >> Amoeba [secured NPL portfolio] Q2.18 ~€0.4bn >> Arctos [unsecured NPL portfolio] Q2.18 ~€0.1bn >> Albania [banking subsidiary] Q3.18 ~€0.4bn >> Bulgaria [banking subsidiary] Q4.18 ~€0.7bn >> Other de-risking actions [non-core assets de-risking] Q4.18 ~€0.6bn >> Nemo [secured NPL portfolio] Q2.19 ~€0.3bn Total ~€3.6bn

The €3.6bn RWA Relief is Equivalent to €0.5bn Capital Enhancement for the Bank

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 14

14 |

1.10 2019 CAPITAL ENHANCEMENT PLAN

Management Actions Targeted Capital Improvement

  • A. Tier 2 debt issuance

~85bps

  • B. Sale of operations, non-core subs & participations

~80bps

  • C. Review of high capital-consuming businesses
  • D. Enhanced organic revenue generation
  • E. Accelerated cost efficiency actions
  • F. Balance sheet optimization | RWA management

Capital Position Strengthening through a Number of Additional Initiatives

Issued 26 Jun.19 NPE servicing agreement

160-200 bps

total initial guidance STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 15

1.11 CAPITAL TRAJECTORY POST RECENT TRANSACTIONS

15 |

Total Regulatory Capital (%, phased-in) Total Regulatory Capital (%, fully loaded)

Recent Transactions, Coupled with Return to Profitability, Strengthen Capital Position

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 16

1.12 PROJECTED CAPITAL EVOLUTION

16 |

Total Regulatory Capital (%)

+0.9% +0.8% +0.4%

e: estimate; f: forecast

Organic Capital Generation Supports Capital Development Going Forward

14.0% to 14.5% OCR

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 17

1.13 GREEK MARKET NPE TRAJECTORY

17 |

48% <20%

a: actual; f: forecast

NPE ratio 48% 47% 45% NPE GDP NPE/GDP €185bn €184bn €187bn €191bn €202bn 58% 57% 51% 43% 13%

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

The 3-year NPE Targeted Reduction Equals ~30% of GDP; Ambitious yet Feasible

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SLIDE 18

1.14 REAL ESTATE MARKET TREND

18 | STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

Outlook for Real Estate Prices Embedded in Existing Plan

2017a 2018a 2019e 2020f 2021f Non-residential real estate price change 1.6% 5.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% Residential real estate price change

  • 1.0%

1.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.6%

a: actual, e: estimate, f: forecast Source: Piraeus Economic Research, baseline scenario

Upside Potential to Collateral Valuations from Acceleration of Real Estate Price Recovery

  • Current Run-Rate of Non-Residential RE prices at +6% and Residential at +4% yoy
  • Piraeus Bank has €23bn of real estate assets as underlying collateral for loans and €3bn οf own
  • assets. Almost €11bn relates to NPE portfolio
  • For every 100bps incremental shift in Real Estate prices, estimated value improvement is

approximately at €50-100mn

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SLIDE 19

1.15 IMPROVED LIQUIDITY PROFILE

19 |

Domestic Deposits | €bn Liquidity Coverage Ratio (%)

>95%

Satisfactory Liquidity on the back of Deposit Restoration and Macroeconomic Stabilization

LDR c.85% STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 20

1.16 LOAN BALANCES

20 |

Gross Loans (€bn) New Loans (€bn, %)

 Non performing exposures to be reduced as per plan  Performing exposures: €15bn new loans and €2bn net curings to be offset by €7bn amortization and other  Business lending is the driver of loan growth ~5 ~6

53 48

NPE PE ~4 3.1

  • 15

+10

e: estimate; f: forecast

Loan Evolution Incorporates the Parallel Dynamics of De-risking and Healthy Loan Growth

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 21

1.17 ADJUSTED RETURNS TOOL

21 |

Adjusted Returns Tool Developed for Risk-Based Pricing, Fully Adopted by the Bank’s Business Units

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

Cost of Credit Risk Cost of Capital Cost of Liquidity Operating Expenses* Ancillary Revenues** Hurdle Rate

Cost Spread

Profit Margin Final Yield / Spread

ARoC

* Operating expenses soon to be introduced into the methodology ** Ancillary revenues have a positive contribution, thus reducing the Hurdle rate

The overall methodology aims at:  optimizing capital allocation  establishing a hurdle rate for every loan decision  capturing term profitability, focusing on return maximization and credit loss mitigation  enhancing the risk culture across the Bank

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SLIDE 22

1.18 REVENUES & OPEX| POSITIVE JAWS

22 |

  • Xxx
  • Xxx
  • Xxx

Operating Jaws (€bn)

a: actual; e: estimate; f: forecast

1.2

Positive Jaws Supported by Frontloaded Cost Cuts and Revenue Increase post 2020

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 23

1.19 NET INTEREST INCOME

23 |

(€mn) 2018a 2019e Interest Income 1,874 1,830 Loans & Bonds 1,770 1,715 Other 105 115 Interest Expense 465 430 Deposits 199 180 Interbank Funding 50 15 Debt Securities 6 25 Other 210 210 Net Interest Income 1,410 1,400 Current NII run rate at mid single digit increase NII going forward growing at low single digit pace per annum: yield from new assets will outpace increasing debt securities issuance costs Loan income to move into positive trajectory in line with new healthy disbursements

  • Resilient NII Going Forward as Improvement on the Asset Side Offsets Debt Issuance Costs

a: actual; e: estimate

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 24

(€mn) Q1.2019 % Assets Loans 13.1 0.09% Acquiring 12.1 0.08% Funds Transfer 11.9 0.08% Cards Issuance 9.5 0.07% Bancassurance 8.4 0.06% Letters of Guarantee 8.3 0.06% Payments 6.1 0.04% AM & Brokerage 5.5 0.04% FX Fees 3.8 0.03% Deposits 1.6 0.01% Other 7.7 0.05% Total Fee Income 88.0 0.61%

1.20 FEE & COMMISSION INCOME

24 |

Enhancement initiatives implemented to boost fees from all areas of business at par with gradual macroeconomic recovery Fees stemming from transaction banking, credit cards, payments and asset management / brokerage are expected to perform in line with our strategy

  • above 0.8% in the medium term

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

NFI to Grow Along with the Macro Recovery & Increasing Penetration to Specific Areas of Business

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SLIDE 25

1.21 G&A COSTS

25 | (€mn)

5M.18 5M.19 yoy Rents 17 15

  • 12%

Maintenance 14 11

  • 22%

IT 13 10

  • 28%

Third Parties 25 20

  • 22%

Promotion, Subscriptions 14 12

  • 19%

Taxes 56 48

  • 14%

Other 18 12

  • 34%

Total G&A Costs 158 126

  • 20%

Current run rate of more than 15% reduction yoy Going forward, high single-digit pace of reduction Efficiencies to be further increased along with increasing digitalization, as well as the implementation of the NPE servicing agreement

  • Preliminary data for 5M.19

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

G&A Costs Running at -20% Reduction Rate Boosting the Bank’s Efficiency Ratio

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SLIDE 26

1.22 REVAMP OF GOVERNANCE & CONTROLS

26 |

  • Reshuffling of Top Management
  • Revamp of Internal Policies and Controls
  • Adjusted Return on Capital Methodology and Process
  • Cultural Transformation: work- in-progress as of 2017
  • Roadmap for the Future

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 27

1.23 LATEST FINANCIAL TRENDS

27 |

  • €1bn customer deposits increase in Q2.19
  • LDR at ~ 85%; LCR at ~ 95%
  • Deposit cost further contained
  • NPE movement on track with the yearly 2019 target
  • More than €2bn RRE-based securitization in preparation, placement in 2020
  • Positive tailwinds from real estate collateral revaluation
  • Performing loan book increased in 6M.19 by more than €500mn (€1.9bn new loans)
  • Resilient new loan production yields
  • OpEx running at high single digit reduction pace yoy

STRATEGIC OVERVIEW

01

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SLIDE 28

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Can the New Government Revive the Greek “Animal Spirits”?

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SLIDE 29

2.1 ECONOMIC RECOVERY

29 |

02

Since 2017, the Greek Economy has been Range-bound Between 1.5%-2.0%

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

2019e 1.6% Source: ELSTAT, Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 30

2.2 NEW GOVERNMENT’S PLAN

30 |

Fiscal Stimulus

The New Government’s Plan to Reach “Escape Velocity”

Investment “Shock” Escape Velocity

Fiscal Neutrality €6bn €6bn €60bn

€0.5bn corporate tax rates cut in 2-years €0.45bn dividend tax rate cut €2.6bn personal income tax rate cut (up to €10,000) €0.8bn increase in the tax free income threshold by €1,000 for each child €1.02bn VAT rate cuts €0.3bn business fee gradual abolishment €0.4bn special solidarity levy gradual cut €0.4bn ENFIA (property tax) cut in 2-years Special incentives (doubling of the time for

  • ffsetting losses, 200% over-depreciation

new investments) €12bn in infrastructures €20-€25bn in tourism and shipping €15-€20bn in primary sector and food processing manufacturing €9bn in energy and the environment €10bn in R&D, Industry, logistics and PPP Efficiency Savings 4.0% Real GDP = €4.0bn tax revenues €0.2bn public consumption spending cut €1.19bn rationalization & improvement in DEKO & General Government Legal Entities €0.14bn interest payments cut for T-bills €0.15bn no public sector wage increase €0.3bn hiring / retirement ratio (1/5) €0.02bn unused real estate exploitation

€4bn €2bn

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: ND Elections 2019 Programme, Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 31

2.3 INVESTMENTS ENVIRONMENT

31 | Investments & Net Capital Stock (€bn)

For 2.0% Average GDP Growth we Need to “Crowd-in” €325bn of Investments

Non Financial Corporations Net vs Gross Fixed Capital Formation (€bn, current prices)

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

  • 10.0
  • 5.0

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Net Fixed Capital Formation

Disinvestment through depreciation

Stock 1989

Stock 2027

Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Capital Consumption GFCF Source: ELSTAT, Piraeus Bank Research

1990 - 1999 2000 - 2008 2009 - 2018 2019 - 2027

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SLIDE 32

2.4 ANIMAL SPIRITS

32 |

But after a Long Recession “Animal Spirits” are Dormant

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: EC DG ECFIN, Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 33

2.5 GREEK CORPORATES (i)

33 |

  • utperformers

(7.9%)

a 668 b 2,985 c 3,477

d 1,289

good performers (35.5%) medium performers (41.3%) underperformers (15.3%)

Despite Popular Belief, Greece has a Substantial “Bankable” Corporate Universe

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 34

2.6 GREEK CORPORATES (ii)

34 | EBITDA margin Total liabilities to equity Net debt to EBITDA

  • a. 24.7%
  • a. 33.0%
  • a. 24.9%
  • b. 14.8%
  • b. 13.0%
  • b. 14.7%
  • c. 7.1%
  • c. 6.9%
  • c. 7.1%
  • d. -8.3%
  • d. 1.8%
  • d. -8.1%
  • 20%
  • 10%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% SMEs Large Total

  • a. 0.5
  • a. 0.7
  • a. 0.5
  • b. 1.2
  • b. 1.2
  • b. 1.2
  • c. 2.7
  • c. 3.6
  • c. 2.8
  • d. 3.6
  • d. 4.0
  • d. 3.6

1 2 3 4 SMEs Large Total

  • a. 0.1
  • a. 2.2
  • a. 0.1
  • b. 3.8
  • b. 4.1
  • b. 3.8
  • c. 13.7
  • c. 11.6
  • c. 13.6
  • d. 24.9
  • d. 26.4
  • d. 25.0

10 20 30 SMEs Large Total

Dormant “Animal Spirits” Drive Defensive Corporate Balance-sheets to Extremes

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: ICAP DATA, Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 35

2.7 CREDIT ENVIRONMENT

35 |

Corporate Loans (annual % change)

But Corporate Credit is Recovering…

Corporate Loans (net flows €bn) Corporate Loans by sector (annual % change, Apr.19)

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank

Manufacturing, Mining & Quarrying Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Accommodation & Food Service Activities (Tourism) Storage & Transportation

  • ther than shipping

Professional, scientific, technical, administrative & support activities

18.8 51.5

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SLIDE 36

2.8 REAL ESTATE ENVIRONMENT

36 | Residential Real Estate Prices (annual % change) Non Residential Prices (annual % change) Real Estate FDI in Greece (€mn)

…as well as Real Estate Valuations

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: Bank of Greece, Piraeus Bank 4.0% 6.4%

  • 100.0

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0 Q1/07 Q4/07 Q3/08 Q2/09 Q1/10 Q4/10 Q3/11 Q2/12 Q1/13 Q4/13 Q3/14 Q2/15 Q1/16 Q4/16 Q3/17 Q2/18 Q1/19

€392mn

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SLIDE 37

2.9 TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES

37 |

With Plenty of Entry Points for New Capital

Greece needs to reorient itself from a consumption-based to an export-based economy Emphasis on export-oriented sectors: Tourism, farming, food processing, oil refining, basic metals & minerals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals Even in sectors with a competitive advantage Greece needs infrastructure upgrades, ie 5-star resorts, yachting, convention centers, marketing & branding In sectors with less stellar prospects such as retail and wholesale trade, fish- farming, passenger shipping, telecoms, consolidation will create sectoral champions with improved margins Regulatory pressures to liberalize industries such as electricity, natural gas, waste processing & management, renewable energy Greece has a number of competitive advantages but needs to move up the Value Added Chain In several sectors and for a variety of reasons, a massive consolidation process has started More funding, either in the form of equity

  • r loans, will be required

Privatized assets & natural resources development will require substantial investment (equity or loans) Clusters can be created around privatized assets, ie ship-repair zone, logistics, cargo management, cruise tourism Banks commitment to reduce NPLs & Non Core Assets will create opportunities in real estate, insurance and leasing, hotels and in over-indebted but viable companies Greece is facing regulatory pressures to liberalize and privatize a number of sectors Greek banks have committed to reduce NPLs and restructure their balance sheets

GREEK ECONOMY & OUTLOOK

02

Source: Piraeus Bank Research

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SLIDE 38

NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

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SLIDE 39

3.1 OUR WORK UNTIL NOW

39 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

Group NPE Development (€bn)

Coverage

96%

NPE Reduction of €5.5bn in 2018, the Largest Annual Reduction in the Greek Market

Restructuring Volumes (€bn)

  • €12

12.0b 0bn

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SLIDE 40

3.3 GROUP NPE UP TO 2021

40 | Inflows: €6.1bn

NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

amounts in €bn

NPE Reduction of €15bn until YE.21, of which Almost Half via Inorganic Actions

  • /w Securitizations €6.0bn
  • loss budget already

embedded in CoR guidance

  • >100% coverage by

provisions and collateral

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SLIDE 41

3.2 NPE MOVEMENT DECOMPOSITION

41 |

03

George Handji nicolao u

Re-defaults Defaults

NPEs | Bank data (€bn)

Curings, Collections, Liquidations Write-offs Required effort per quarter on average until Dec.2021 Q2.19 - Q4.21 Sales Q1.18

30.8 28.3

Q2.18 Q3.18

27.5 26.4

Q4.18 Q1.19

25.9

Average Q1.18-Q1.19 Curings (0.6) Collections (0.2) Liquidations (0.1) Average Q2.19-Q4.21 Curings (0.6) Collections (0.1) Liquidations (0.2)

NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

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SLIDE 42

3.4 SIGNIFICANT CURING POTENTIAL

42 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

(€bn) 0 dpd 1-89dpd >90dpd Denounced NPEs Business 5.6 1.9 2.0 8.4 17.9 Mortgages 0.9 0.8 0.8 3.8 6.2 Consumer 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.8 2.8 TOTAL 6.7 2.8 3.3 14.1 26.9

NPEs per Bucket (Mar.19)

NPΕ mix 25% 10% 12% 52% 100% [1] [2] [3] [1+2+3+4] [4]

25% of NPEs have 0days of Arrears; Pace of NPE Exits from Curings at €0.6bn per quarter

Cash Coverage Ratio (Mar.19) Forborne Loans (€12.3bn, Mar.19)

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SLIDE 43

3.5 COVERAGE BY SEGMENT

43 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

Mortgages Business Consumer Mortgages Business Total 95%

Total NPE coverage at

96%

Total NPL coverage at

121%

Consumer Total 100% Total 94% Total 130% Total 108% Total 104%

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SLIDE 44

3.6 SYSTEMIC SOLUTIONS UNDER CONSIDERATION

44 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

Asset Protection Scheme

  • Sponsored by the HFSF and the Ministry of Finance
  • Similar to the Italian GACS scheme introduced in 2016
  • NPL portfolio Securitisation with Senior notes retained

by the Bank and Mezzanine sold to third party investors

  • Hellenic Republic provides guarantee to Senior notes

subject to conditions

  • Favourable risk-weighting of the retained Senior notes
  • Facilitates the execution of larger transactions volumes
  • Complementary to the Bank of Greece proposal
  • Proposal expected to get clearance by DGComp
  • Implementation anticipated in 2020

Asset Management Company

  • Sponsored by the Bank of Greece
  • Transfer of NPE portfolio along with part of the

deferred tax credits (DTCs) to SPV

  • SPV

funded through Securitisation issue (Senior, Mezzanine, Subordinated)

  • Subordinated notes will be subscribed by the Banks

and the Greek State

  • Private investors will absorb Senior and Mezzanine

notes

  • Merit of the scheme is that combines NPE deleverage

with improvement in quality of capital

  • Implementation anticipated in 2020
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SLIDE 45

3.7 DE-RISKING STRATEGY

45 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

Other assets Cash, Securities, Interbank

Asset Mix

Net NPEs Net PEs

100%

Interbank & Debt Securities Deposits Equity Other liabilities

2018 2023

100%

Liability Mix

100% 100% 12% 20% 23% 5% 42% 60% 24% 15% 9% 10% 72% 75% 12% 12% 7% 3%

2018 2023

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SLIDE 46

3.8 NPE CLEAN-UP TARGETS

46 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

NPE PLAN 2021

Gross NPE Ratio Net NPE Ratio

2018

53% 27%

Single-digit NPE ratio in 2023

Through a mix of organic and inorganic actions

Agenda 2023

More outflows and less inflows

Supported by c.€20bn restructuring volumes in 2017-2021

Scheduled inorganic actions

Securitizations and NPE disposals

2023

~9% ~5%

Group NPE Balances (€bn)

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SLIDE 47

3.9 NPE SALES

47 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

Project Amoeba: €1.4bn GBV, €2.0bn legal claim

  • Secured large SME and corporate loans
  • Sale agreed with Bain Capital Credit LP in May

2018 and concluded near end of Oct. 18

Project Arctos: €0.4bn GBV, €2.2bn legal claim

  • Unsecured personal loans and credit cards
  • Sale agreed to consortium led by APS

Investments Capital s.r.o. in Jun. 2018 and concluded at the end of Oct.18

Project Nemo: c.€0.5bn GBV, equal legal claim

  • Secured shipping loans
  • Sale agreed with Davidson Kempner Capital

Management LP in Jun.19 and concluded in early Jul.19

Project Iris: c.€0.7bn GBV, €1.7bn legal claim

  • Personal loans and credit cards, small

business loans, leasing exposures

  • Virtual Data Room opened in Mar.19
  • Non-binding offers in Apr.19; BOs in Q3.19

2019

completed

2018

completed completed

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SLIDE 48

Amoeba Arctos Nemo Total Gross Book Value (€bn) 1.4 0.4 0.5 2.3 Price over GBV (%) 30% 13% 47% 30% Provision Coverage (%) 73% 90% 45% 70% RWA (€bn) 0.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 Collateral (€bn) 0.5 n.a. 0.3 0.8 Discount over Collateral Value (%) 15% n.a. 4% Buyer Bain Capital APS DK

3.10 KEY DATA OF COMPLETED NPE SALES

48 | NPE STRATEGY & EXECUTION

03

All 3 Sales Transactions have been Capital Accretive for Piraeus Bank (~25bps in total)

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SLIDE 49

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

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SLIDE 50

4.1 CIB | WHO WE ARE

50 |

04

Largest Greek Systemic Bank Uniquely Positioned to Capture Growth in Greece

  • Customers: 10k companies
  • Exposure: €15bn
  • Deposits: €7bn

Leading Market Position

  • Leading position in Corporate and SME banking
  • Pioneer in Greek Agriculture business; leading market share in Leasing
  • Ranked 1st in Brokerage services

Our Strengths

  • Strong liquidity and disciplined capital management approach
  • Longstanding relationships with proven resilience over the crisis
  • Highly skilled professionals with deep knowledge of local market dynamics and products
  • Low cost-to-income ratio at high 20s%  opportunity to invest

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

slide-51
SLIDE 51

4.2 OUR BUSINESS

51 |

We serve all major sectors of the Greek economy providing full range of products and services through the largest network in Greece

1

Segments

Large, Structured Finance, Real Estate, Hotel & Tourism, Shipping, SME & Agri

3

Subsidiaries/ Non Bank Products

Factoring, Leasing & Securities

2

Bank Product factories

Syndications, TxB, Investment Banking, Green Banking

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-52
SLIDE 52

4.3 CIB TODAY

52 |

New Loans Generation

  • Front book yield is significant higher than

yield of stock portfolio (+40bps)

  • Pipeline: stands at €2bn, out of which

€0.8bn is already credit approved

  • 50% of 2019 target achieved

Revenues

  • Revenues of Q1.19 in line with 2019 budget
  • Aggressive target for 2019 NFI (+15% yoy)
  • Net fees +14% y-o-y in Q1.19

NII

(€mn)

Fees

(€mn)

New loans

(€bn)

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-53
SLIDE 53
  • Revenues
  • Profitability
  • Market Share
  • Processes
  • Systems
  • Credit
  • Capital
  • Operational Risk

4.4 OUR STRATEGY

53 |

Grow, Streamline, Protect Protect Grow Streamline

The Customer Our People

at the center

  • f what we do

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-54
SLIDE 54

4.5 OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES

54 |

1

Achieve Sustainable Profitable Growth, Placing the Customer at the Epicenter of What We Do

Grow Streamline Protect

  • Improve cross selling by taking fair share of wallet on clients’ ancillary business
  • Invest in Transaction Banking products
  • Focus on sectors of Bank’s excellence: SME, Agri and Green
  • Claim leading underwriting position
  • Support FDI with acquisition financing expansion
  • Automate processes
  • Remove duplication and re-design lending process to reduce time to money / time to new product
  • Commit on SLAs
  • Innovate new ways of doing things
  • Credit Risk  minimize new NPE formation
  • Capital Risk  prudent and disciplined RWA management
  • Liquidity  penetrate non-lending relationships
  • Operational Risk management

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-55
SLIDE 55

4.6 DIGITAL TRANSACTION BANKING

55 |

An integrated business model that will create a connected corporate banking experience and uninterrupted transaction flow Transaction Banking Suite

Collections

Simplify bookkeeping

Payments

All-in-one A better grip

  • n cash flow

Cash Management Trade Finance

Smarter financing

Factoring

Safeguard cash flow

Treasury

Maximize cash performance

Analytics

Deep dive into data

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-56
SLIDE 56

4.7 NEW STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP

56 | CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

Collaboration for Solutions to Greek Shipping Companies

  • In its effort to expand revenue capacity and better

manage balance sheet, the Bank is currently exploring to enter into a strategic partnership with a major Asian Pacific financial conglomerate

  • The focus of the partnership will be on providing

tailored and competitive funding solutions to Greek shipping companies

  • The agreement if conducted, would incorporate

both a one-off fee paid to the Bank for its services and a recurring annual fee for ancillary services to be provided over the tenure of each facility

Business Rationale for the Strategic Partnership

  • The opportunity relates with the effort to:

 increase fees and expand market share in a vital sector for the Greek economy  possibility to increase access to capital and

  • ther services for the shipping sector

  • ptionality with regards to expansion in other

business areas via the deepening of the relationship with the said conglomerate

  • The agreement allows Piraeus to leverage on its

partner’s balance sheet and lower cost of capital allowing a more efficient and profitable use of its experience and resources in the shipping sector

slide-57
SLIDE 57

4.8 THE WAY FORWARD

57 |

Our Ambition

  • Become the most profitable CIB franchise in Greece

 Defend and grow market share at the sectors of focus  Grow revenues  generate sustainable, sticky fee income

  • Improve portfolio returns
  • Enhance customer experience by developing digital capabilities
  • Leverage our client relationships and balance sheet to lead key transaction and support the Greek economy

Our Targets

  • Positive Economic Value Added across all segments
  • Cost-to-Income ratio: low 30s%
  • New loan generation: >10% yoy
  • Optimize capital allocation

CIB PERFORMANCE & TRENDS

04

slide-58
SLIDE 58

NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

slide-59
SLIDE 59

5.1 PIRAEUS AND INTRUM JOIN FORCES

59 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

  • Piraeus Bank and Intrum enter into a strategic partnership for the management of non-performing assets
  • Establishment of the market-leading independent NPE servicer in Greece
  • The servicer will manage Piraeus’ existing NPEs and REOs, as well as new inflows
  • Two servicer companies, one for NPEs and one for REOs, comprising one operating platform
  • The platform will also manage non-performing assets of third parties
  • Piraeus’ and Intrum’s top management will join the new companies’ Board of Directors
  • The NPE servicer company will be licensed and regulated by the Bank of Greece
  • The transaction is subject to customary conditions, regulatory approvals and the consent of the HFSF
slide-60
SLIDE 60

5.2 BENEFITS OF THE TRANSACTION

60 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

1

Facilitation of sizeable inorganic actions

2

Enhanced

  • perating efficiency

3

Performance Culture

4

Bank retains upside potential

5

Re-focus on core banking Leverage with Intrum expertise Enhancement of Piraeus’ NPE recovery prospects, facilitating the

  • utperformance of NPE reduction targets

Participation in the enterprise value growth of the servicer companies; Piraeus retains assets and proceeds on its balance sheet PPI savings (cost relief minus fixed AuM fees) of c.€50mn per annum in 2020-2021; overall boost of effectiveness in the management of NPEs Independent servicer with the scale and capabilities to service large portfolios, facilitating future securitizations and systemic solutions Management team will re-focus on core banking activities, yielding improved results for the Group

slide-61
SLIDE 61

5.3 BUSINESS LOGIC AT A GLANCE

61 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

Strong business logic behind the long-term strategic partnership - creating value for other stakeholders

RBU Employees

  • Core business
  • Short and long-term

development opportunities

  • Centre of excellence

Clients & Customers

  • More tools and solutions
  • Fair and firm
  • Prospering companies
  • Individuals with healthy loans

Greek Society

  • Long-term industry player
  • Substantial investment capacity
  • Increase job opportunities
  • Contribute to the economy
slide-62
SLIDE 62

5.4 TRANSACTION FACTSHEET

62 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

Serviced Perimeter  Existing non-performing loans plus forborne / early arrears loans and REOs, as well as any new inflows  €27bn loan exposures and €1bn REOs in the perimeter (est. Q4.2019 figures) Timeline  The two parties aim for transaction closing on 1 October 2019 Board of Directors  Comprised of both parties’ executives Valuation  The agreement values the 100% of the platform at €410mn. Intrum has agreed to acquire 80% for a purchase price of €328mn Shareholder Structure  80% of the new servicer company will be held by Intrum and 20% by Piraeus Bank Contract Duration  Initial term of 10 years Management  George Georgakopoulos will assume the role of CEO in the 2 servicer companies Employees  c.1,300 people will be employed in the new servicer companies Structure  The majority of the serviced NPE portfolio to be transferred to and held by a securitization SPV

slide-63
SLIDE 63

5.5 PROGRESS AT A GLANCE

63 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

Piraeus Bank ServiceCo Shares Recovery Banking Unit Step 1: Transfer of RBU Business to ServiceCo Piraeus Bank ServiceCo Step 2: Sale of ServiceCo, including a long-term SLA Intrum Shares in ServiceCo Consideration Long-term SLA 80% 20%

Note: diagrams do not explicitly show the creation and sale of the REO servicing company, which follows the same structure

slide-64
SLIDE 64

5.6 PIRAEUS’ RBU OVERVIEW

64 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

~1,300

FTEs

~€27bn

servicing perimeter

Formal establishment of the RBU in Q4.2013, based on internal workout and restructuring teams, as well as top talent from the core Bank Servicing retail and commercial exposures across a variety of specialized sub-segments Significant investments in the operating platform, processes, product suite and governance Active involvement and facilitation of previous and ongoing NPE transactions by the RBU; the best NPE reduction performance in 2018

Collections Restructuring Legal actions

Piraeus' Recovery Banking Unit

The most advanced NPE management unit in Greece

RBU Core Activities

slide-65
SLIDE 65

5.7 INTRUM OVERVIEW

65 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

  • Holistic service offering, covering the entire credit

management chain; c.80k clients

  • Local presence in 24 European markets -

market leader in the majority of them; 160 partner countries

  • Strong operational performance and collection results
  • Significant transaction and partnership experience

Intrum Key Metrics - Q1 2019 LTM (SEKmn) (EURmn)

Revenues 14,079 1,357 EBIT Adjusted 4,877 470 Cash EBITDA 10,283 991 Employees >10,000 >10,000

slide-66
SLIDE 66

5.8 PREPARATIONS FRONTLOADED

66 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

  • Launch implementation of the transfer of

business to ensure autonomous operational continuity of the servicer companies, by:

  • Segregating IT systems
  • Separating premises
  • Setting up the billing processes and

calculation tools

  • Managing the transfer of resources
  • Defining Compliance / GDPR obligations
  • Stress-test systems and processes of

servicer companies

▪ Implementation

steps for the transfer of the Piraeus RBU business defined

▪ Operational

readiness and set- up of 13 dedicated workstreams

▪ New servicer

companies fully up and running

End of May

▪ Piraeus and Intrum have

started preparations for the implementation phase of the transaction early in the process

▪ Target is for the new

servicer companies to be ready by 1 October 2019

▪ The new NPE servicer

company will be licensed by the Bank of Greece

SCOPE Pre-Signing

End of September

APPROACH Pre-Signing Post-Signing - Implementation Completion

slide-67
SLIDE 67

5.9 EXECUTION

67 |

05

Steering Committee

Weekly Jour Fixe PMO Meeting

PMO Team

Workstream Managers Steering Committee Owners

Functions involved

Compliance & GDPR PB Organization & Governance HR Credit & Delegated authorities Technology Ops set-up

(premises, facilities, branches)

Billing Engine, KPIs Regulatory & Incorporation Securitization and related processes Core Processes and Invoicing

▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Corporate

Governance

▪ Organosis ▪ Finance & MIS ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Credit ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Legal ▪ Procurement ▪ Branches ▪ Finance & MIS ▪ Legal ▪ IT Facilities ▪ HR ▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Organosis ▪ Finance ▪ IT ▪ Operations ▪ Treasury ▪ Tax ▪ Accounting ▪ Corporate

Servicing Unit

▪ Organosis ▪ IT ▪ Finance ▪ Regulatory

Affairs

▪ Legal ▪ Strategy ▪ RBU ▪ HR ▪ Participations ▪ Finance ▪ Compliance ▪ Inv. Relations ▪ HR ▪ Legal ▪ Operations

1 6 5 7 8 2 9 10 4 3 11

Cost Monitoring

ServiceCo set-up

12

Communicati

  • n

Intrum ownership

NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

slide-68
SLIDE 68

5.10 FINANCIAL IMPACT

68 | NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

10-year period Up to 2021 2019

  • NPV of the 10-year

cumulative net income impact c.€100mn, including upfront consideration proceeds

  • This impact does not

include any acceleration in the execution of Piraeus’ NPE reduction strategy

  • Positive impact on PPI (cost relief

minus fixed AuM fees) of c.€115mn cumulatively (Q4.19 to end-2021)

  • Success fee for the execution of the

existing NPE plan expected to be booked in the CoR line

  • All-inclusive positive impact to capital

through to 2021 of c.55-60bps as per existing NPE plan

  • In a scenario of 10% over-

performance vs existing NPE plan, net capital result through to 2021 increases to c.100bps

  • Capital accretion of c.80bps

will arise from the €0.4bn valuation of the NPE servicing platform

  • Closing expected 1 October

2019; marginal operating P&L impact from Q4.2019

slide-69
SLIDE 69

5.11 BASELINE FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS

69 |

2019-2021 Net Income (€bn) 2019-2021 PPI (€bn)

NPE SERVICING AGREEMENT

05

The Illustrated Impact Takes into Account the Baseline Scenario of our NPE Plan Execution

slide-70
SLIDE 70

CLOSING REMARKS

slide-71
SLIDE 71

AGENDA 2023: KEY PILLARS

71 |

  • b. Satisfying Stakeholders remaining the top priority for the Bank

Value Creation by the Leading Bank in Greece

  • a. Strategic Targets paving the path to increasing profitability

Efficiency & Simplification De-risking

  • f Legacy Assets

Growth

  • f Core Assets
  • c. Sustainable Solutions producing sustainable returns

CLOSING REMARKS

slide-72
SLIDE 72

2023 ROADMAP

72 |

Restoration of Fundamentals in the Baseline Scenario 2018

54% 51% losses ~200bps above the expected requirement high single-digit return single-digit ratio low 40s RoTΕ NPE Regulatory Capital Cost to income 14.0%

CLOSING REMARKS

slide-73
SLIDE 73

ROA DRIVERS

73 |

a: actual; f: forecast

Pre-Tax RoA Improvement Driven by Cost Efficiency

Growth and development of the business Efficiency increase and simplification De-risking and cost of risk normalization

+0.1% +0.5% +0.2%

CLOSING REMARKS

Pre- tax RoA

slide-74
SLIDE 74

Disclaimer

The accompanying presentation has been prepared by Piraeus Bank S.A. and its subsidiaries and affiliates (the “Bank” or “We”) solely for informational purposes. For the purposes of this disclaimer, the presentation that follows shall mean and include materials, including and together with any oral commentary or presentation and any question-and-answer session. By attending a meeting at which the presentation is made, or otherwise viewing or accessing the presentation, whether live or recorded, you will be deemed to have agreed to the following restrictions and acknowledged that you understand the legal and regulatory sanctions attached to the misuse, disclosure or improper circulation of the presentation or any information contained herein. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy or a recommendation to buy or invest in any form of security issued by the Bank or its subsidiaries or affiliates nor does it constitute an offer or commitment to lend, syndicate or arrange a financing, underwrite or purchase or act as an agent or advisor or in any other capacity with respect to any transaction, or to commit capital. This presentation is not intended to provide a basis for evaluations and does not constitute investment, legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or other advice and does not take into account your objectives or legal, accounting, regulatory, taxation or financial situation or particular needs. No representation, warranty or undertaking is being made and no reliance may be placed for any purpose whatsoever on the information contained in this presentation in making any investment decision in relation to any form of security issued by the Bank or its subsidiaries or affiliates or for any other transaction. You are solely responsible for forming your own opinions and conclusions on such matters and for making your own independent assessment of the Bank. You are solely responsible for seeking independent professional advice in relation to the Bank and you should consult with your own advisers as to the legal, tax, business, financial and related aspects and/or consequences of any investment decision. No responsibility or liability is accepted by any person for any of the information or for any action taken by you or any of your officers, employees, agents or associates on the basis of such information. This presentation does not purport to be comprehensive and no representation, warranty or undertaking is made hereby or is to be implied by any person as to the completeness, accuracy or fairness of the information contained in this

  • presentation. The Bank, its financial and other advisors, and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and representatives expressly disclaim any and all liability which may arise from this presentation and any errors contained

herein and/or omissions therefrom or from any use of this presentation or its contents or otherwise in connection therewith. The Bank, its financial and other advisors, and their respective directors, officers, employees, agents, and representatives accept no liability for any loss howsoever arising, directly or indirectly, from any use of the information in this presentation or in connection therewith. Certain information contained in this presentation is based on estimates or expectations of the Bank, and there can be no assurance that these estimates or expectations are or will prove to be accurate. This presentation speaks only as of the date hereof and neither the Bank nor any other person gives any undertaking, or is under any obligation, to update any of the information contained in this presentation, including forward-looking statements, for events or circumstances that occur subsequent to the date of this presentation. Each recipient acknowledges that neither it nor the Bank intends that the Bank act or be responsible as a fiduciary to such attendee or recipient, its management, stockholders, creditors or any other person. By accepting and providing this document, each attendee or recipient and the Bank, respectively, expressly disclaims any fiduciary relationship and agrees that each recipient is responsible for making its own independent judgment with respect to the Bank and any other matters regarding this document. The Bank has included certain non-IFRS financial measures in this presentation. These measurements may not be comparable to those of other companies. Reference to these non-IFRS financial measures should be considered in addition to IFRS financial measures, but should not be considered a substitute for results that are presented in accordance with IFRS. Certain statements contained in this presentation that are not statements of historical fact, including, without limitation, any statements preceded by, followed by or including the words “targets,” “believes,” “expects,” “aims,” “intends,” “may,” “anticipates,” “would,” “could” or similar expressions or the negative thereof, constitute forward-looking statements, notwithstanding that such statements are not specifically identified. Examples of forward-looking statements include, but are not limited to, statements which are not statements of historical fact and may include, among other things, statements relating to the Bank’s strategies, plans, objectives, initiatives and targets, its businesses, outlook, political, economic or other conditions in Greece or elsewhere, the Bank’s financial condition, results of operations, liquidity, capital resources and capital expenditures and development of markets and anticipated cost savings and synergies, as well as the intention and beliefs of the Bank and/or its management or directors concerning the foregoing. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and involve certain risks, uncertainties and assumptions which are difficult to predict and outside of the control of the Bank. Therefore, actual outcomes and results may differ materially from what is expressed in such forward-looking statements. We have based these assumptions on information currently available to us, and if any one or more of these assumptions turn out to be incorrect, actual market results may differ significantly. While we do not know what impact any such differences may have on our business, if there are such differences, our future results of operations and financial condition, could be materially adversely affected. You should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which such statements are made. The Bank expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking to disseminate any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statement to reflect events or circumstances after the date on which such statement is made, or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

slide-75
SLIDE 75

PIRAEUS BANK GROUP HEADQUARTERS

4, Amerikis Str., 105 64 Athens, Greece

  • T. +30 210 333 5026

www.piraeusbankgroup.com