PIRAEUS BANK GROUP FIXED INCOME PRESENTATION TABLE OF CONTENTS 01 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PIRAEUS BANK GROUP FIXED INCOME PRESENTATION TABLE OF CONTENTS 01 - - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
PIRAEUS BANK GROUP FIXED INCOME PRESENTATION TABLE OF CONTENTS 01 OVERVIEW 02 LIQUIDITY 03 CAPITAL 04 ASSET QUALITY 05 MACRO OUTLOOK 06 APPENDIX 01 . OVERVIEW 01 1.1 PIRAEUS BANK STRENGTHS AND GOALS STRENGTHS GOALS market leader in loans and
TABLE OF CONTENTS
01 OVERVIEW 02 LIQUIDITY 03 CAPITAL 04 ASSET QUALITY 05 MACRO OUTLOOK 06 APPENDIX
01.
OVERVIEW
4
market leader in loans and deposits strong reinvigorated management team sound capital and liquidity position delivering on our transformation strategy
| OVERVIEW
01
1.1 PIRAEUS BANK STRENGTHS AND GOALS reduce NPLs and NPEs to a normalised level create a profitable and sustainable business model maintain a strong capital base re-establish wholesale market funding access
STRENGTHS GOALS
01
5
1.2 PIRAEUS AT A GLANCE
| OVERVIEW
€68.2bn
Assets
€45.7bn
Net Loans
€41.8bn
Deposits
17.0%
CET-1 ratio [phased-in]
109%
Loans-to-Deposits ratio
❶ ❷ ❸ ❹ ❺
#1
in loans
5.1mn
customers
#1
in deposits
11 years
average length of customer relationships
>1.7mn
e-banking users
>470k
mobile banking users
620
branches
13.9k
headcount
* data for domestic operations in Dec.17 * data for Group operations in Sep.17
01
6
1.3 PIRAEUS BANK LEADING POSITION IN GREECE
55 402 486 489
628
Gross Loans - Greece (%)
1% 18% 22% 28%
29%
2% 21% 21% 26%
30%
35% business
Customer Deposits - Greece (%) Greek Branch Network (#)
620 in Dec.17 | OVERVIEW
Source: Bank of Greece for Greek market data and financial information for banks, as of Sep.2017
| OVERVIEW
1.4 SHAREHOLDER STRUCTURE
HFSF
26%
Institutional Investors & Legal Entities
68%
Individuals
6%
Piraeus Shareholder Structure (Dec.2017)
Shareholder structure of Piraeus Bank presents great diversity; total number of common shareholders 30k The Hellenic Financial Stability Fund holds 26% of
- utstanding common shares
The remaining 74% is held by the private sector; 68% by legal entities and 6% individuals Strong international presence with significant part of free float held by foreign institutional investors Common Shares Private sector 322 mn HFSF 115 mn Total 437 mn
7
01
1.5 NEW BOARD OF DIRECTORS
8
01
| OVERVIEW Chairperson
Chair of the Audit Committee, Member of the: Risk Management Committee, Board Members’ Nominations Committee, Remuneration Committee, Strategy Committee
- Chair and Board member of banks, commercial institutions (EBRD, Citi, Supervisory Board member
Zachodny Bank) Chair of the Remuneration Committee, Chair of the Nominations Committee, Member of the Strategy Committee and of the Risk Management Committee
- Former Senior Advisor to IMF, banks and organizations
Arne Berggren David Hexter
Non Executive Chairman Chair of the Strategy Committee
- Former Deputy CEO of ISDA where he served since 2011, Senior Management positions in Dresdner
Kleinwort Benson, Bank of America Merrill Lynch and UBS in London and New York
George Handjinicolaou
Member of the: Audit Committee, Board Members’ Nominations Committee, Remuneration Committee, Strategy Committee
- Former CEO of Intesa San Paolo, CEO of Think Global Investments, Management Board of Allianz
Enrico TommasoCucchiani
Managing Director (CEO) Chair of the Executive Committee Former CEO of Eurobank Ergasias SA, Vice-Chairman of Southern Europe of Credit Suisse Investment Banking, Distinguished Fellow (Global Federation of Competitiveness Councils)
Christos Megalou Executive Members
Executive General Manager, Piraeus Legacy Unit Member of the Executive Committee Former CEO of Eurobank Romania (BancPost), former CEO of 4Finance
George Georgakopoulos Independent Non Executive Members
Vice Chairman Chair of the Risk Management Committee, Member of the Audit Committee, Strategy Committee Former CEO at Dexia and Fortis Group, Former Vice Chair of ABN AMRO Holdings (UK) Ltd
Karel De Boeck
- Founder and Managing Director of Venkon Group, LLC
- Family operated business with PE investments, VC investment in hi-tech
- Real Estate portfolio consisting of commercial and residential development
Venetia Kontogouris Non Executive Members
Member of the: Risk Management Committee, Audit Committee, Board Members’ Nomination Committee, Remuneration Committee CEO of Tiresias SA, Group Risk Director at Eurobank
Solomon Berahas
Member of the: Risk Management Committee, Remuneration Committee, Board Members’ Nomination Committee, Strategy Committee Partner at Paulson & Co. Inc
Alexander Blades
HFSF Representative, Member of the: Risk Management Committee, Audit Committee, Board Members’ Nomination Committee, Remuneration Committee, Strategy Committee
- Former CEO of SBAB Bank and Senior Executive of SEB
- Non Executive Board member of Scandinavian banks / financial institutions
Per Anders Fasth
10.6 2.1 46.4 8.5 3.3 3.0 10.6 2.1 45.7 3.6 3.0 3.2
Other Cash
Asset Mix
Total
Securities EFSF|ESM Bonds Net Loans PPE
68.2
9
1.6 ASSETS & LIABILITIES OVERVIEW
| OVERVIEW
amounts in €bn 2.4 9.7 16.2 25.7 2.2 4.2 7.8 2.2 9.7 16.0 25.2 5.2 5.5 10.3 Total
ECB ELA Interbank Repos Core Deposits Time Deposits Total Equity Other
68.2
Funding Mix
Sep.17
Total Cash Securities EFSF|ESM Bonds Net Loans Fixed Assets Other
73.9
Jun.17
Sep.17
Jun.17
Total ECB ELA Interbank Repos Core Deposits Time Deposits Total Equity Other
73.9
01
10
“Piraeus Core Bank”
Q1.17 H1.17 9M.17 RWAs €28.0bn €28.6bn €28.9bn NPE €2.6bn €2.5bn €2.3bn RoA 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% Reg.Capital €4.7bn €4.8bn €4.9bn
Corporate &
- Inv. Banking
Retail Banking Asset Management
“Piraeus Legacy Unit”
Q1.17 H1.17 9M.17 RWAs €25.2bn €24.1bn €23.5bn NPE €32.7bn €32.1bn €31.5bn RoA <0% <0% <0% Reg.Capital €4.2bn €4.0bn €4.0bn
Recovery Banking Unit International Operations Discontinued Operations
Decisive action on legacy issues, value-generating businesses Business model based on efficiency & risk-adjusted returns
1.7 RING-FENCING AND DOWNSIZING LEGACY ASSETS
01
| OVERVIEW
Piraeus Bank
11
1.8 PROGRESS AGAINST 2020 GROUP TARGETS
from
NIM
from
NFI
from
CIR
from
LDR
from
NPE
from
NPL Pre-tax RoA
from
RoA
to >310bps to >65bps to <43% to <105% to <30% to <15% to ~1.5% to >1.0%
Note: c.€70bn assets at the end of 2020 (est.) for the calculation of NIM, NFI and RoA; NPE ratio over on balance sheet data
from
Q1.17 H1.17
270bps 271bps
273bps
50bps 50bps
61bps
53% 51%
51%
116% 113%
109%
55% 56%
55%
38% 37%
36%
losses losses
losses
losses break-even break-even
9M.17
01
| OVERVIEW
2020 Targets
P&L
- Core banking income comprising NII and fees, at €1,593mn,+1% yoy
- Operating costs at €870mn, -5% yoy
- Cost to income ratio at 51% from 56% a year ago
- Pre provision income at €844mn in 9M, +16% yoy
NPEs|NPLs
- NPE stock down to €33.8bn, -€2.5bn yoy
- NPE operational target attained for 5th quarter in a row
- NPE formation at -€0.3bn, NPL formation at -€0.5bn (both pre write-off)
- NPL stock down to €22.1bn, -€3.3bn yoy, at 36% vs 39% a year earlier
Liquidity
- Deposits in Greece +€0.9bn in Q3, continuing the upward trend started in Q2
- Loans to deposits ratio at 109% down from 113% in Q2; 2nd best domestic market level
- Eurosystem reliance at €12bn, -€9bn ytd; ELA below €6bn in late November; 2nd best domestic market level
- Issue of a 5Y €0.5bn covered bond (3M euribor +250bps) in Oct.17; interbank repos at €1.6bn in late Nov.17
12 | OVERVIEW Operating profitability improving ΝPE & NPL stock down for 8th consecutive quarter in Q3 Increased deposit inflows in Q3; decreased Eurosystem reliance
1.9 9M.2017: ACCELERATION IN EXECUTION ESPECIALLY WITH REGARDS TO IMPROVING ASSET QUALITY
01
01
13
1.10 SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS AGAINST “AGENDA 2020” PLAN De-risk Balance sheet
- PLU reduced RWA size by €0.6bn qoq and by €1.7bn in the past 6 months, while CET-1 ratio increased by 27bps
- NPE & NPL reduced. “Agenda 2020” set targets to <€20bn for NPEs & <€10bn for NPLs in 2020
- Disposal of AVIS Greece, Hellenic Seaways stake and Serbian & Romanian banking operations
- 3rd public open e-auction via www.properties4sale.gr in Dec.17 | more than 6 auctions in 2018
Resize & focus
- OpEx -5% yoy, domestic cost to income at 48%, moving towards the medium-term target for <43% in 2020
- Further rationalization of domestic network, -32 branches vs. Dec.16 down to 620 by Dec.17
- Additional optimization of Greek FTEs, -215ytd to reach level of 13,200 by year-end 2017
- Migration of transactions to digital channels with target of 86% by end-2018 well on track (76% in Sep.17)
Profitable & sustainable business model
- Core Bank posted €311mn net profit in 9Μ, RoA of 1.1%, NIM at 309bps and net fees at 87bps over assets
- New loan generation slightly up for SME book, aiming at >€1bn new loans in 2018 from €0.6bn in 2017
- Further reduction of ELA balance, aiming at full elimination by year-end 2018
- Recent issue of covered bond paves the way for increased market access retuning to normal liquidity conditions
Maximising value from core businesses while accelerating clean-up of legacy issues Optimizing resources, while investing in digitalization Maintaining leading position in business lending, with a focus on SMEs
| OVERVIEW
ELA elimination Loan generation Loan mix effect
Balance Annual new loan production % higher loan yield products (Small Businesses, Consumer Loans)
- ver new production
14
1.11 STRONGER REVENUE DRIVERS
Retail banking CIB Other
22bps >25bps 3bps ~5bps
Net Interest Income
€11.0bn €0bn ~€2bn >€5bn 5% ~20% 2016 target 2016 2020 target 2016 20bps >30bps
Net Fee Income
2016 2016 2016 Drivers: bancassurance, cards, payments transaction banking investment products digitalisation
Note: elimination of ELA exposure is targeted by the end of 2018
9M.2017 9M.2017 annualized 9M.2017 9M.2017 9M.2017 9M.2017 €7.8bn €2.5bn 8% 33bps 23bps 5bps
late Nov. <€6bn
01
2020 target 2020 target 2020 target 2020 target | OVERVIEW
15
1.12 COST OPTIMISATION EFFORTS TO INTENSIFY
01
| OVERVIEW
~1.3 1.2 <1.05 <0.95
Cost-to-income ratio <45% 57%
2016 2020
Divestments Corporate centre efficiency gains Branch efficiency gains
2016 2020
Effects of cost initiatives €bn, 2017-2020 51%
9M.17
9M.17 annualized
Initial target Revised target
Efforts that can be undertaken within the current operating model
- Decrease organisational complexity
- Re-size functions and align service model
- Establish a market leading procurement approach
Re-shape the operating model to build the Piraeus Bank of the future
- Accelerate the modernization of the distribution model
- Digitalize core processes
- Embed a strategic cost culture in Piraeus
1 2 3 1 2 3
Increasing change ambition level
“Horizon”: zero cost based strategic project initiated
Revised 2020
<43%
01
1.13 TECHNOLOGY | “DRIVER” FOR COST REDUCTION AND INCREASE CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE & REVENUES
| OVERVIEW
16
Value Based Management system Extend bank-wide loyalty co-
- peration
Full operation of 4 e-branches in Attica region Continuous reform of internet banking and mobile banking platforms Enforce transaction migration from branch to digital channels Remote servicing through internet banking and mobile banking (e- signature) Extend video banking applications to increase customer accessibility & experience Ιntroduce new full automated processes and instant credit tools Create new fast track services through appropriate automated workflows Adopt efficient new technologies (BYOD, Big Data, Block Chain, Advanced Data Analytics)
Experience & Revenue Increase
2
Apply innovation to streamline day to day processes:
- e-signature
- remote teller
- paperless cashier
- printers for passbook update
- issuance of prepaid cards
Exploit usage of cloud outsourcing services for day to day operations Introduce video Identification in new customer registration to reduce cost Continuous process review and re- engineering Sustain high level of IT systems security Introduce a new data governance framework to secure data quality and completeness Continuous alignment with regulatory and supervisory requirements New services for people with specialized banking service needs
Cost Savings
1
04.
LIQUIDITY
02.
LIQUIDITY
02
18
2.1 GREEK MARKET LIQUIDITY GRADUALLY RESTORED
| LIQUIDITY
20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
ELA ECB Eurosystem at €34bn in Dec.17 (ELA €22bn, ECB €12bn), -€93bn vs. Jun.15 peak
Eurosystem Funding (€bn) Deposits & Βanknotes in Circulation (€bn)
Banknotes at €36bn in Dec.17,
- €15bn vs. Jun.15 peak
€22 €12 €130 €42
10 20 30 40 50 60
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
100 150 200 250 300
Deposits Currency in Circulation
€36 €138
100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Deposits Loans
40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Net Loans to Deposits Ratio (%) Loans & Deposit Balances (private sector,€bn)
LDR at 111% in Dec.17,
- 26pp vs. Jun.15 peak
Deposits up €5.0bn in Dec.17 yoy Loans down €11.2bn yoy in Dec.17, o/w €5.5bn write-offs
€184 €126 111%
Source: Bank of Greece; on top of write-offs, the loan market has been impacted by c.€4bn FX fluctuations and other adjustments
19
2.2 DOMESTIC DEPOSITS PICKING UP
| LIQUIDITY Greek market
37% 37% 63% 63% Sep.17 Sep.17 Time deposits Savings-Sight deposits
Domestic Deposit Mix (%) Deposit Movement by Segment (€bn)
Greek market
Customer Deposit Movement in Greece (€bn)
133.8
- 2.4
+0.8 +1.7 +5.6 132.5
- 2.6
+0.9 +2.4 133.2
Dec.15 Δ Q1.16 Δ Q2.16 Δ Q3.16 Δ Q4.16 Dec.16 Δ Q1.17 Δ Q2.17 Δ Q3.17 Sep.17
Piraeus - Greece Piraeus - Greece
24% 24% 76% 76% Sep.17 Sep.17 Business Retail
Greek market Piraeus - Greece
36.1
- 1.0
+0.4 +0.9 +2.9 39.3
- 1.3
+0.2 +0.9 39.1
Dec.15 Δ Q1.16 Δ Q2.16 Δ Q3.16 Δ Q4.16 Dec.16 Δ Q1.17 Δ Q2.17 Δ Q3.17 Sep.17
Piraeus FY.16 delta Q1.17 delta Q2.17 delta Q3.17 delta Sep.17 balance Mass|Farmers +1.0
- 0.5
+0.2 +0.1 14.5 Affluent|Private Banking +0.6
- 0.3
- +0.3
13.4 SB +0.2
- 0.1
+0.2 +0.3 3.2 SME +0.2
- +0.1
- 1.1
Corporate +0.6
- 0.1
- 2.4
Govt & Other +0.5
- 0.4
- 0.2
+0.2 4.5 Total +3.1
- 1.3
+0.2 +0.9 39.1 c.40% of market inflow in Q3
02
- 2.9
20.9 37.3 32.7
- 2.3
- 3.6
- 5.5
- 3.8
12.0 14.1
- 3.1
+0.4
Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Δ Q1.16 Δ Q2.16 Δ Q3.16 Δ Q4.16 Dec.16 Δ Q1.17 Δ Q2.17 Δ Q3.17 Sep.17
20
2.3 REDUCED RELIANCE ON EUROSYSTEM FUNDING, DEPOSITS INCREASING
02
ΕLA at €7.8bn from €11.9bn at YE 2016
ELA down by €2.5bn qoq in Q3 at €7.8bn vs. 2015 peak of €22bn
1 2
Eurosystem funding decreased by €3.8bn in Q3.17, by €8.9bn in 9m.17 Repos at €2.2bn in Q3 incl. €1.2bn with non-ECB eligible collateral
Domestic Deposits (€bn) Eurosystem Funding (€bn) 3 4 5
Positive deposit movement in Q3 in Greece which continues in Q4 Zero reliance of L.3723 State support since April 2016
6
Continued participation in ESM bond exchange programme
+0.9 35.1 36.1
- 1.0
+0.4 +0.9 +2.9 39.1 49.5 39.3
- 1.3
+0.2
Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Δ Q1.16 Δ Q2.16 Δ Q3.16 Δ Q4.16 Dec.16 Δ Q1.17 Δ Q2.17 Δ Q3.17 Sept.17
Q4.17 (until end Nov.17):
- deposits further increased by ~€1bn
- ELA use has dropped to <€6bn
| LIQUIDITY
0.37 0.62 0.09 0.21
Dec.12 Dec.13 Dec.14 Dec.15 Jun.16 Sep.16 Oct.16 Nov.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Euro area Greece Spain Portugal
02
21
2.4 PIRAEUS DEPOSIT COST DECREASING
| LIQUIDITY
Greek Customer Deposit Rates (mtd, %) Greek Time Deposit Rates | Stock vs. New (mtd, %) New Time Deposit Rates in European Periphery (%)
4.40% 3.64% 2.71% 2.27% 1.77% 1.74% 0.95% 0.81% 0.73% 0.65% 0.61% 0.65% 4.58% 4.04% 3.05% 2.62% 1.95% 1.75% 1.17% 0.93% 0.89%0.83% 0.81% 0.79% Dec.12 Jun.13 Dec.13 Jun.14 Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec. 16 Jun.17 Sep.17 New time deposits Time deposits (stock) 2.91% 2.74% 2.04% 1.79% 1.30% 1.05% 0.63% 0.52% 0.53% 0.49% 0.46% 0.46% 4.58% 4.04% 3.05% 2.62% 1.95% 1.75% 1.17% 0.93% 0.89%0.83% 0.81% 0.79% Dec.12 Jun.13 Dec.13 Jun.14 Dec.14 Jun.15 Dec.15 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Jun.17 Sep.17 Total deposits (stock) Time deposits (stock)
Time deposit cost continues to decrease Ongoing effort to reduce deposit cost in line with approved Restructuring Plan Gradual increase of market sentiment and inflows in deposits are not expected to trigger any deviation from deposit pricing discipline
Deposit Cost Further Improved
1 2 3 Q4.17 (until end Nov.17):
- time deposits cost further down to 0.75%
02
22
2.5 EUROSYSTEM FUNDING UTILIZATION DROPS FURTHER
| LIQUIDITY
Dec.14 Dec.15 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 mid- Nov. ECB 14.1 16.0 11.1 9.0 4.5 5.5 4.2 4.0 EFSF|ESM Bonds 5.7 15.3 9.5 7.3 2.8 3.9 2.5 2.1 GGBs and T-bills 1.0
- 0.9
0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 L.3723 6.8
- Other
0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0 ELA
- 16.7
12.7 11.9 11.0 10.3 7.8 6.0 GGBs and T-bills
- 0.8
- L.3723
- 5.7
- Loans & Other
- 10.2
12.7 11.9 11.0 10.3 7.8 6.0 Total 14.1 32.7 23.8 20.9 15.5 15.8 12.0 10.0
Eurosystem Funding (€bn)
14.9 15.1 14.6 16.0 14.4 12.4 11.1 9.0 4.5 5.5 4.2 4.0 15.4 22.2 21.2 16.7 16.1 14.4 12.7 11.9 11.0 10.3 7.8 <6.0
10.0 14.1 30.3 37.3 35.8 32.7 30.4 26.8 23.8 20.9 15.5 15.8 12.0 10.0
Sep.14 Dec.14 Mar.15 Jun.15 Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 end- Nov
ELA ECB
Collateral Used for Eurosystem Funding - Cash Values (€bn) ELA Utilization & Buffer
1 2 3 ELA utilization drops below €6.0 at end Nov.17 ELA collateral buffer estimated at €11bn, based on existing collateral valuation and haircuts No utilization of Pillar 2 support scheme since April 2016 “NBG's and Piraeus' higher cash buffers puts them in a stronger position to face any renewed economic turmoil in Greece” “Piraeus' deposits have been recovering steadily over recent quarters, above the system average” (Issuer Comment, 28 Sep.2017)
23
2.6 INTERBANK REPO ACTIVITY
| LIQUIDITY
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Apr.16 May.16 Jun.16 Jul.16 Aug.16 Sep.16 Oct.16 Nov.16 Dec.16 Jan.17 Feb.17 Mar.17 Apr.17 May.17 Jun.17 Jul.17 Aug.17 Sep.17 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 Dec.12 Mar.13 Jun.13 Sep.13 Nov.13 Jan.14 Mar.14 May.14 Jul.14 Sep.14 Nov.14 Jan.15 Mar.15 May.15 Jul.15 Oct.15 Dec.15 Feb.16 May.16 Aug,16 Oct.16 Mar.17 Sep.17
Funding from EFSF Repos (€mn) Interbank Repos Τrends Funding from Non-ECB Eligible Collateral (€mn)
€0bn late-Nov.17
Interbank funding through EFSF bond repos stood at c.€1.1bn in September 2017, from €6bn in Dec.16, due to the ongoing exchange in the framework of short term measures for Greek Public Debt relief Initiation of interbank repo activity with non-ECB eligible collateral in the past 12 months; balances at €1.6bn at the end of Nov.17 at a cost significantly below ELA level Ample non-ECB eligible collateral to provide additional funding in excess of €3bn Increased volumes assisting reduction of Eurosystem reliance
1 3 2
€1.6bn late-Nov.17
4
02
24
2.7 LIDUIDITY EVOLUTION
| LIQUIDITY
Net Loans to Deposits Ratio | Piraeus Bank vs Market (%)
130% 130% 128% 124% 115% 118% 115% 111% 128% 127% 125% 121% 118% 119% 117% 114% Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 Piraeus Bank (Domestic) Greek Market (%,avg)
Liquidity Position | Piraeus Bank vs Peers (%)
Q3.17 Q3.17 Q3.17 Q3.17
Loans-to-Deposits (LDR) | Group 109% 129% 83% 112% LDR | Greece 111% 131% 83% 131% ELA funding as % of assets 11% 14% 3% 15%
Source: Bank of Greece for the market Source: Published IFRS financial statements and IR material 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Piraeus Bank has a downward trend in Loans-to-Deposits ratio, standing at 109% in Sep.17, and stands at a lower level during the past 4 quarters compared to market average Piraeus Bank ranks second in all liquidity ratios, among the four systemic banks ELA as % of assets stood at 11% for Q3.17 for Piraeus Bank showing reduced dependency on ELA funding
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
02
2.8 FUNDING PLAN
25 | LIQUIDITY
Q4.17 until late Nov.17: ELA use has already dropped from €7.8bn at the end of Sep.17 to below €6bn in late Nov.17 and continues on a downward trend
ELA Evolution
22.2 11.9 10.3 <6.0
2015 peak YE.2016 June 2017 YE.2017 2018 2018 YE.2018 target Deposit inflows 2018 Debt issues & Interbank Repos
The upward trend in deposit inflows recorded in Q3.17, also continuing in Q4.17, is expected to enhance the Bank’s liquidity position Bond issues, such as the recent 5-year €500mn covered bond, will enable ELA disengagement €0bn Public Issuance Plan 2018 2019 2020 €0.5bn €1.0bn €1.75bn
02
26
2.9 COVERED BOND PRIVATE PLACEMENT TRANSACTION
| LIQUIDITY
The significant size of drawn liquidity, long tenor and competitive all-in cost of funding achieved, further highlight the importance of this landmark transaction
Piraeus Bank issued a new 5-year €500mn covered bond in October 2017, under Piraeus Bank’s €10bn Covered Bond Programme The covered bond is primarily placed among supranational organizations, namely the European Investment Bank (EIB), the European Investment Fund (EIF) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD); Credit Suisse has acted as Dealer Manager in the transaction The issue is an FRN, 3mEuribor + 250bps | Conditional Pass-Through structure The new issue constitutes an innovative financing scheme in which international financial organizations invest in Greek bank covered bonds for the first time
First covered bond issuance by Piraeus Bank and the first time that international financial organizations invest in covered bonds issued by Greek banks to support Greek entrepreneurship, since the beginning of the financial crisis
02
#2 #1 #3 #1 #3
2.10 DEBT ISSUANCE PROGRAMMES
| LIQUIDITY
27
PIRAEUS GROUP FINANCE PLC as Issuer PIRAEUS BANK S.A. as Issuer and Guarantor €25,000,000,000 Euro Medium Term Note Programme Arranger Deutsche Bank Dealers
Barclays BNP Paribas Credit Suisse Goldman Sachs International Morgan Stanley UBS Investment Bank
11 August 2017
BofA Merrill Lynch Citi Deutsche Bank HSBC Piraeus Bank Commerzbank
PIRAEUS BANK S.A. as Issuer €10 billion Global Covered Bond Programme Arranger Barclays Dealers Barclays Piraeus Bank S.A. 25 August 2017 PIRAEUS GROUP FINANCE PLC as Issuer PIRAEUS BANK S.A. as Guarantor €5,000,000,000 Euro-Commercial Paper Programme Arranger Piraeus Bank S.A. Dealers Piraeus Bank S.A. UBS Investment Bank 6 June 2016 500 1,000 1,500 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Public Issues (€bn|#) Piraeus Bank - Debt Issuance Programmes
#1
02
03.
CAPITAL
Note: as of Q1.2017 the operations of two domestic subsidiaries, namely Olympic SA (Avis Greece) and Imithea SA (Henry Dunant hospital) were recorded as
- discontinued. On top, as of Q2.2017 the Bank’s operations in Serbia (Piraeus
Bank Beograd and the local leasing subsidiary) have been also classified as discontinued.
29
3.1 REDUCED RISK PROFILE & IMPROVING CAPITAL RATIOS
03
€ bn | % Phased-Ιn Fully Loaded Jun.17 Sep.17 Jun.17 Sep.17 CET-1 Capital 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 Total Regulatory Capital 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 RWAs 52.2 51.8 52.2 51.8 CET-1 ratio 16.9% 17.0% 16.5% 16.6% Total Capital Ratio 16.9% 17.0% 16.5% 16.6%
CET-1 Ratios
€mn
Phased-in CET-1 Capital & RWAs Evolution in 9M.2017
9,003
- 22
- 68
- 102
8,811
Dec.16 CET-1 9M.17 results
- cont. ops
9M.17 results disc'd ops Other Sep.17 CET-1
53,266
- 865
- 646
51,755
Dec.16 RWA 9M.17 Divestments Sep.17 RWA Note: ratios adjusted for RWA relief from divestments under way (Avis Greece, Henry Dunant hospital and Serbian operations)
Leverage ratio at 12.8% State CoCos of €2.0bn CET-1 ratios (phased-In & fully loaded) increased on a quarterly basis
Note: €102mn mainly from regulatory phasing
| CAPITAL
Note: DTC at €4.0bn, o/w €1.3bn from PSI and €2.7bn from loan losses
3.2 CET-1 RATIOS
30 | CAPITAL
€mn
Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3
CET1 8,811 8,804 6,400 5,603 RWA 51,755 49,300 38,500 37,208 CET-1 % phased-in 17.0% 17.9% 16.8% 15.1% CET-1 % fully loaded 16.6% 17.7% 16.6% 14.6% High level of capital on both phased-in and fully loaded basis CET-1 % fully loaded increased yoy from 16.1% a year ago to 16.6% at the end of Sep.17, while achieving NPE deleverage targets
CET-1 Ratios (Sep.17, %)
03
04.
ASSET QUALITY
04
32
4.1 GROUP NPE & NPL RATIOS TRENDING LOWER
| ASSET QUALITY NPLs (€mn) Sep.17 Business 14,798 Mortgages 4,485 Consumer 2,785 TOTAL 22,068 NPLs (€mn) Sep.17 Greece 20,908 International 1,160 TOTAL 22,068
Group NPL Ratio per Product Category Group NPL Mix
37.1% 38.5% 28.9% 48.6%
36.2% 37.3% 28.9% 47.3%
Total Business Mortgages Consumer
Jun.17 Sep.17
NPEs (€mn) Sep.17 Business 23,967 Mortgages 6,429 Consumer 3,378 TOTAL 33,774 NPEs (€mn) Sep.17 Greece 32,219 International 1,555 TOTAL 33,774
Group NPE Ratio per Product Category Group NPE Mix
55.6% 61.0% 41.0% 57.8%
55.3% 60.5% 41.5% 57.4%
Total Business Mortgages Consumer
Jun.17 Sep.17
Note: NPE on balance sheet data
NPE mix 71% 19% 10% NPL mix 67% 20% 13%
33
4.2 PRE WRITE-OFF FORMATION IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY IN Q3.17
| ASSET QUALITY
- 41
- 33
- 208
131 23 6 19
- 19
9
Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17
Greek NPL Formation by Segment
Notes: pre write-off quarterly NPL formation in € mn or as % of gross loans, Q2.17 and on excludes Serbia NPE on balance sheet data
Greek NPE Formation by Segment
Business Mortgages Consumer 334
- 254
- 358
89
- 12
- 48
28
- 43
- 39
Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17
Business Mortgages Consumer
NPEs formation for Retail segment still subdued, while for business segment there has been a significant negative movements of NPEs formation NPLs formation continued in a negative territory for another quarter in Q3 for all segments, paving the way for NPE reduction
04
34 | ASSET QUALITY
4.3 SATISFACTORY COVERAGE IN ALL SEGMENTS
LLRs (€mn) Sep.17 LLR/ Loans Business 11,394 28.7% Mortgages 1,831 11.8% Consumer 2,147 36.5% TOTAL 15,372 25.2% LLRs (€mn) Sep.17 LLR/ Loans Greece 14,617 25.2% International 755 24.4% TOTAL 15,372 25.2%
68% 75% 39% 77%
70% 77% 41% 77%
Total Business Mortgages Consumer Q2.17 Q3.17
NPE Coverage Ratio per Product NPL Coverage Ratio per Product Group LLRs at 25% Over Loans
NPL mix 67% 20% 13%
Total NPEs coverage ratio at 96% for business portfolio including tangible collateral Strong NPL coverage ratio at 77% for the business portfolio that comprise 67% of total NPL stock Cumulative provisions at 25% over Group gross loans
45% 47% 28% 64%
46% 48% 28% 64%
Total Business Mortgages Consumer Q2.17 Q3.17 NPE mix 71% 19% 10% Note: NPE on balance sheet data
04
35
4.4 COVERAGE PER SEGMENT
04
Coverage per Segment (Sep.2017)
| ASSET QUALITY Piraeus Group NPL Ratio % Cash Coverage % Collateral Coverage % Total NPL Coverage % NPE Ratio % Cash Coverage % Collateral Coverage % Total NPE Coverage % Business loans 37% 77% 39% 116% 60% 48% 48% 96%
- /w SB
48% 59% 44% 103% 61% 46% 48% 94%
- /w SME & Corporate
36% 81% 38% 119% 60% 48% 48% 96% Mortgage loans 29% 41% 67% 108% 42% 28% 67% 95% Consumer loans 47% 77% 17% 94% 57% 64% 21% 85% Total loans 36% 70% 42% 112% 55% 46% 49% 95%
High % coverage (provisions & collateral) in all segments Total NPL coverage ratio (NPL Coverage % + NPL Collateral %) of the overall loan portfolio well exceeding 100%, with corresponding total NPE coverage ratio near 100% Coverage of business NPEs relatively balanced between provisions & collaterals, while consumer loans are tilted towards provisions and mortgage loans towards collateral coverage
36
4.5 NPE STOCK INCLUDES €8.2ΒΝ OF LOANS WITH ZERO DAYS OF ARREARS
| ASSET QUALITY 36. 36.2% 55.3%
Group NPL 90dpd Implied Group NPE +13.2%
Piraeus Group NPL to NPE Reconciliation (Sep.2017) Piraeus Group NPL-NPE-LLR Data per Product (Sep.2017)
€bn Exposures NPEs NPLs Perform rming ng Impaired Forborne Contagion Business 39.6 24.0 14.8 3.0 5.7 0.5 Mortgages 15.5 6.4 4.5 0.0 1.9 0.0 Consumer 5.9 3.4 2.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 Total 61.0 33.8 22.1 3.1 8.1 0.5 €bn │ % NPEs NPLs LLRs Coverage NPEs NPLs Business 24.0 14.8 11.4 48% 77% Mortgages 6.4 4.5 1.8 28% 41% Consumer 3.4 2.8 2.1 64% 77% Total 33.8 22.1 15.4 46% 70%
+19.2% Coverage
70%
Coverage
46%
+5.1%
Sep.17
Group NPL >90dpd
Sep.17
Group NPE Impaired Contagion Forborne +0.9%
Impaired: the effect of the inclusion of exposures which are not past due by more than 90dpd and for which the customer carries specific provisions Forborne: the additional effect of the inclusion of exposures which are not past due but have forbearance measures (i.e. concessions towards a debtor facing or about to face difficulties in meeting financial commitments) and are classified as non-performing as per EBA Technical Standards on forbearance and non performing exposures Contagion: the additional effect of characterizing all exposures to a debtor as NPL when the debtor has exposures in arrears more than 90dpd (pull-through effect) according to EBA technical standards
€8.2bn out of €11.7bn: 0 dpd
Note: NPE on balance sheet data
04
77%
17%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
37
4.6 CASH COVERAGE AUGMENTED BY COLLATERAL
| ASSET QUALITY
77%
39%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
Mortgage Business Consumer
48%
48%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
64%
21%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
Mortgage Business Consumer Total 116% Total 108% Total 94% Total 96% Total 95% Total 85%
Total NPEs coverage at 95%
(on top personal guarantees)
+ corporate and personal guarantees + personal guarantees + personal guarantees + corporate and personal guarantees + personal guarantees + personal guarantees
Note: collateral capped at loan amount
Total NPLs coverage at 112%
(on top personal guarantees)
28%
67%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
41%
67%
Cash coverage Tangible collateral coverage
04
1.7% 1.7% 2.7% 3.3% 3.9% 4.5% 4.5% 5.6% 7.6% 7.7% 10.3% 11.0% 9.5% 26.1% Agriculture Other Services Activities Transportation & Storage Electricity, Gas, Steam Shipping Real Estate Financial & Insurance Accommodation & Food Construction Other Wholesale & Retail Trade Manufacturing Consumer Mortgages
38
4.7 LOAN PORTFOLIO DIVERSIFICATION
Loans: KPIs per Segment (Sep.2017) Domestic Loan Composition (Sep.2017, %)
in €mn | % TOTAL Business Mortgage Consumer GROUP Loans 61,035 39,645 15,507 5,883 NPL Ratio 36.2% 37.3% 28.9% 47.3% NPL Coverage 69.7% 77.0% 40.8% 77.1% NPE Ratio 55.3% 60.5% 41.5% 57.4% NPE Coverage 45.5% 47.5% 28.5% 63.6%
| ASSET QUALITY
(*) NPE ratios for on balance sheet data
in €mn | % TOTAL Business Mortgage Consumer GREECE Loans 57,936 37,312 15,143 5,480 NPL Ratio 36.1% 36.9% 29.4% 49.5% NPL Coverage 69.9% 78.1% 40.6% 76.5% NPE Ratio 55.6% 60.6% 42.0% 59.3% NPE Coverage 45.4% 47.5% 28.3% 63.8%
Retail 36%
04
37.7 36.5 36.5 36.5 36.3 35.8 35.2 34.5
33.8
Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17
55% 55%
27.9 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.4 24.1 23.0
22.1
Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17
39
4.8 MATERIAL REDUCTION IN GROUP NPE AND NPL STOCK
1 2
NPL stock marked a drop of €0.9bn qoq and €5.8bn from Sep.15 peak
- Q3.17 pre write-off NPL formation at -€0.5bn
- SSM NPL operational target attained
NPΕ reduction of €2.5bn in the last 12 months and €3.9bn from Sep.15 peak
- Q3.17 pre write-off ΝPE formation negative (-€0.3bn)
- SSM NPE operational target attained for 5th quarter in a row
NPL Development & Ratio (€bn|%) NPE Development & Ratio (€bn|%)
- €3.9bn
- €5.8bn
Notes: NPE /NPL for Jun.17 and Sep.17 exclude Group’s operations in Serbia (Piraeus Bank Beograd and its local leasing subsidiary); NPE data is on balance sheet
40% 36%
| ASSET QUALITY
04
“We consider the reduction in Piraeus’ NPL stock by around €2.4 billion in the first nine months of 2017 as a positive sign that the bank is on the right path to extracting value and cash flow out of its problematic exposures, something that will be closely monitored by both the SSM and the Bank of Greece.” (Credit Opinion, 6 Dec.2017)
34.7 32.2
Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17
40
4.9 DOMESTIC NPL FORMATION LEADING INDICATOR FOR NPE TRAJECTORY
NPE Stock Development (€bn)
- €2.5bn
NPE peak
NPE Formation (€bn)
0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.0
- 0.2
Q1.15 Q2.15 Q3.15 Q4.15 Q1.16 Q2.16 Q3.16 Q4.16 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 Note: NPE data is on balance sheet
0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1
- 0.2
- 0.2
- 0.3
- 0.5
0.5
- 0.3
- 0.4
Q1.15 Q2.15 Q3.15 Q4.15 Q1.16 Q2.16 Q3.16 Q4.16 Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17
25.4 20.9
Sep.15 Dec.15 Mar.16 Jun.16 Sep.16 Dec.16 Mar.17 Jun.17 Sep.17
NPL peak
- €4.5bn
NPL Stock Development (€bn)
Impacted by 2 corporate accounts
NPL Formation (€bn)
| ASSET QUALITY
04
41
4.10 NPE & NPL FORMATION PRE WRITE-OFFS BETTER THAN INDUSTRY AVERAGE
Pre-write off NPE Formation | Piraeus vs. Peers (bps over gross loans)
Piraeus NPE/NPL formation declined faster compared to the Greek systemic peer average, based on the following:
- segment and customer specific operating models
- tailor-made restructuring products delivered through
dedicated channels
- close cooperation of specialised teams with specific
expertise
- thorough financial and operational target-setting on all
levels
Pre-write off NPL Formation | Piraeus vs. Peers (bps over gross loans)
* peer average refers to the other 3 systemic banks; NPLs for Greece, NPEs for Group
- 77bps
+23bps
- 100
- 50
+0 +50 +100 +150 +200
2Q'13 3Q'13 4Q'13 1Q'14 2Q'14 3Q'14 4Q'14 1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 Q1'17 Q2'17 Q3'17
Piraeus Bank 3 Peers' Average
- 45bps
- 2bps
- 100
- 50
+0 +50 +100 +150 +200
1Q'15 2Q'15 3Q'15 4Q'15 1Q'16 2Q'16 3Q'16 4Q'16 1Q'17 2Q'17 3Q'17
Piraeus Bank 3 Peers' Average
| ASSET QUALITY
2 corporate accounts
04
42
4.11 NPL & NPE OPERATIONAL TARGETS TRACK RECORD
| ASSET QUALITY
- Piraeus targets reducing parent stock of NPEs by 37% from Sep.17
(€32.0bn) to Dec.19 (€20.3bn)
- NPLs at parent level are also targeted to be reduced by 50% from
Sep.17 (€20.9bn) to Dec.19 (€10.4bn)
- The reduction until 2019 will be driven by:
- restructurings
- collections
- liquidations
- write-offs
- selected sales
Operational Targets Submitted to SSM | Parent Data 2016 2017 2019
in €bn Jun. Sep. Dec. Mar. Jun. Sep. Dec. actual target actual target actual target actual target actual target αctual target
NPE 34.2 34.4 34.1 34.3 33.8 33.9 33.3 32.9 32.6 32.3 32.0 20.3 NPL 24.4 23.9 23.9 23.3 23.2 22.3 23.0 21.1 21.7 20.9 20.9 10.4
20.9 27.0 24.0 20.3 10.4 11.2
- 5.1
- 3.0
- 3.7
9.9
32.0 20.3
Sep.17 Write-Offs Restructurings. Collections, Liquidations Selected Sales 2019
NPE NPL
: Overall Operational target attained : Quarterly target attained Notes : +€6bn Inflows
- €9bn Outflows
- /w €2.2bn for
debt forgiveness from -€2bn previously
04
43
4.12 NPE STOCK EVOLUTION TARGETS
04
Increased sales under way Intensified restructuring effort Liquidations to speed up Collections up as economy recovers
| ASSET QUALITY
Overall plan for -41% NPE decrease versus
- 37% for total market
Piraeus Bank established in Jun.16 a more aggressive set
- f targets versus market average. Recently, the Bank
resubmitted its’ targets with fine-tuning through:
34.2 32.0
Jun.16 Sep.17 Dec.17 Dec.18 Dec.19 Dec.20 Actual
32.3 31.5 25.9 20.3 <20.0
Parent NPE Stock Evolution (€bn)
- 41%
- 37%
02.
FINANCIALS
02.
FINANCIALS
05.
MACRO OUTLOOK
5.1 A BIRD’S EYE VIEW OF THE GREEK CRISIS
45
05
| MACRO OUTLOOK
GDP is back to 1999
Consumption has returned to its 2000 levels Public spending: Close to the 2000 levels Investments at record low Exports are on the rebound due to Tourism Imports stabilised at long-term average
Source: ELSTAT, Economic Research & Investment Strategy
2000:€39bn 2016: €40bn
10 20 30 40 50 60
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Public Consumption Long-Term Average 2016: €21bn Min value
10 20 30 40 50 60 70
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Gross fixed capital formation Long-Term Average 2007:€57bn 2016: €56bn
15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exports of goods and services Long-Term Average 2002: €60bn 2016: €60bn
20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Imports of goods and services Long-Term Average 2000: €126bn 2016: €127bn
90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Private Consumption Long-Term Average 1999: €183bn 2016: €185bn
140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210 220 230 240 250 260
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Real GDP Long-Term Average
05
46
5.2 IMPROVING EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT
| MACRO OUTLOOK
Sources: ELSTAT, BoG, Bloomberg, Piraeus Bank Economic Research
Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) & PMI Manufacturing Point to Improving GDP Dynamics Real Estate Prices Stabilizing (change yoy %) Industrial Production Improving
30 35 40 45 50 55 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 Economic Sentiment Indicator (left axis) PMI Manufacturing (right axis)
- 15.0
- 10.0
- 5.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 Industrial Production YoY % trend line (2008-Q3.17)
Q3.17
- 0.6% yoy
- 16.0
- 14.0
- 12.0
- 10.0
- 8.0
- 6.0
- 4.0
- 2.0
0.0 2.0 4.0 House Prices Office Prices (Athens) Retail Prices (Athens)
- 15.0
- 10.0
- 5.0
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 Tourism Revenues YoY % trend line (2010-Q3.17)
Tourism as a Key Pillar of the Economy
05
47
5.3 POSITIVE OUTLOOK FOR THE GREEK ECONOMY
| MACRO OUTLOOK
21.6 19.7 18.0 +0 +5 +10 +15 +20 +25 +30
Unemployment Rate
2017-2019
- utlook
Sources: ELSTAT, DG ECFIN, Piraeus Bank Economic Research
Real GDP Expected to Stay on a Growth Trajectory Real GDP returns on a Growth Trajectory Unemployment Rate to Remain Clearly on a Downward Trend
1.2 2.1 2.3
- 3.0
- 2.0
- 1.0
0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Q1/15 Q2/15 Q3/15 Q4/15 Q1/16 Q2/16 Q3/16 Q4/16 Q1/17 Q2/17 Q3/17 QoQ % change YoY % change 2017-2019
- utlook
Τhe recovery of a number of economic activity indicators creates significant upside potential to our 2018-2019 outlook The unemployment rate fell to 20.2% in Q3.2017, while Jan.-
- Sep. average stood at 21.5%. Correspondingly employment
increased by 2.1% on an annual basis Going forward, the successful implementation
- f
the
- utstanding programme reviews, as well as the maintenance of
economic stability and credibility are of paramount importance so that the Greek economy will be able to capitalize on the growing positive momentum Greece is projected to achieve the primary balance target of 3.5% of GDP in 2018-2019 Improved economic outlook confirmed by all rating agencies (Moody’s, Fitch, S&P upgraded rating to Caa2/Positive, B- /Positive and B/Positive respectively) Greek risk sentiment is improving, allowing the sovereign to successfully tap capital markets in Jul.17
05
48
5.4 SOVEREIGN SPREADS DE-ESCALATE
| MACRO OUTLOOK
Greece 10yr Sovereign Bond Spread
290 340 390 440 490 540 590 640 690 740 790
2/1 17/1 1/2 16/2 3/3 18/3 2/4 17/4 2/5 17/5 1/6 16/6 1/7 16/7 31/7 15/8 30/8 14/9 29/9 14/10 29/10 13/11 28/11 13/12 28/12 12/1 27/1 11/2
23rd Jun Moody’s upgrades Greece to Caa2/Pos. 15 Jun Eurogroup welcomes conclusion
- f 2nd
Review 24 Jul Greece successfully issues €3bn 5Y Sovereign Debt 18 Aug Fitch upgrades Greece to B-/Pos. 2nd Programme Review Stalls 15 Nov Greece successfully swaps €30bn Sovereign Debt 19 Jan S&P upgrades Greece to B/Pos. 31 May H1.17 GDP growth prints @ 0.6%, best H1 since 2008 5 Dec Greek government and European institutions reach staff-level agreement for third review
| MACRO OUTLOOK
5.5 GREEK MACRO & BANKING MARKET OUTLOOK
49
05
a: actual e: estimate f: forecast
Greece: Banking Sector Forecasts
2016a 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f Total Loans, €bn 202 190 182 179 186 Total Loans, % change
- 3%
- 6%
- 4%
- 2%
4%
- write-offs | sales per annum, €bn
3 5 10 9 3 Total Loans exc. write-offs & sales, % change
- 2%
- 3%
1% 3% 6% Total Deposits, €bn 132 138 143 151 161 Total Deposits, % change 4% 4% 4% 6% 7%
Sources: Ministry of Finance, ELSTAT, BoG, Piraeus Bank Economic Research
Greece: Macroeconomic Forecasts
2016a 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f Real GDP (sa data, % change)
- 0.2%
1.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.7% Gross Fixed Capital Formation (sa data, €bn) €21 €23 €27 €32 €37 Unemployment Rate (% of labour force) 23.5% 21.6% 19.7% 18.0% 16.7%
- Political stability
- Pent-up demand (for both
consumption and depreciated capital)
- Privatisation-related capital
expenditure
- Export-oriented sectors, such as
tourism and farming, as well as logistics, renewable energy projects, likely drivers of economic recovery
- Loans in the Greek market affected by
write-offs and sales of c.€22bn in the period to 2020
- Deposit inflows of c.€23bn anticipated
in the period to 2020 vs. €100bn
- utflows since crisis beginning
5.6 TRENDS & OPPORTUNITIES
50 | MACRO OUTLOOK
Greece needs to reorient itself from a consumption-based to an export-based economy Greece has a number of competitive advantages but needs to move up the value added chain In several sectors and for a variety of reasons, a massive consolidation process has started More funding, either in the form of equity or loans, will be required Greece is facing regulatory pressures to liberalize and privatize a number of sectors Greek banks have committed to reduce NPLs and restructure their balance sheets TRENDS OPPORTUNITIES Emphasis on export-oriented sectors: tourism, farming, food processing, oil refining, basic metals & minerals, chemicals, pharmaceuticals Even in sectors with a competitive advantage, Greece needs infrastructure upgrades, i.e. 5-star resorts, yachting, convention centers, marketing & branding In sectors with less stellar prospects such as retail and wholesale trade, fish-farming, passenger shipping, telecoms, consolidation will create sectoral champions with improved margins Privatized assets & natural resources development will require substantial investment (equity or loans) Clusters can be created around privatized assets, i.e. ship- repair zone, logistics, cargo management, cruise tourism Regulatory pressures to liberalize industries such as electricity, natural gas, waste processing & management, renewable energy Banks commitment to reduce NPΕ & Non Core Assets will create opportunities in real estate, insurance and leasing, hotels and in over-indebted, but viable companies
05
Cash Withdrawal Limit
- 100% of cash deposited after 22.07.16 can be withdrawn
- €840 equivalent per fortnight per customer (applicable up
to 31.08.2017)
- €1.800 equivalent per month per customer (applicable
from 01.09.2017) Purchase of Greek Mutual Funds
- Allowed
New Account Opening
- Allowed for existing (as of 11.03.16) customers
- Subject to specific criteria, e.g. primary payroll account,
for new customers
- Allowed for new customers that do not have other
account with other Greek Banks Greek Capital Market Instruments
- Allowed
Additional Account Beneficiary
- Allowed for existing (as of 11.03.16) customers
- Prohibited for new customers
Foreign Investments Liquidation
- Proceeds can be re-invested
Transfers from abroad
- 100% of incoming funds can be re-transferred abroad
- 10% of incoming funds received before 22.07.16 can be
withdrawn in cash
- 30% of incoming funds received between 22.07.16 and
31.08.2017 can be withdrawn in cash
- 50% of incoming funds received after 01.09.2017 can be
withdrawn in cash
- 100% of incoming funds received after 01.12.2017 can be
withdrawn in cash Change of Custodian Bank
- Prohibited when changing to foreign custodian
Outgoing Wire Transfers abroad
- Private individuals can transfer up to €1,000 per month
Trade Related Payments
- <€700k approval at bank level
- Weekly limit for bank-level committee at €250mn
- >€700k approval by the Banking Transactions
Approval Committee Time Deposit Break
- Allowed
Early Loan Repayment
- Allowed
51
5.7 CAPITAL CONTROLS UPDATE: FURTHER RELAXATION
| MACRO OUTLOOK
23 ministerial decisions since imposition of Capital Controls, indicating a gradual relaxation of the relative framework
05
06.
APPENDIX
Note: as of Q1.17 the operations of two domestic subsidiaries, Olympic SA (Avis Greece) and Imithea SA (Henry Dunant hospital) were recorded as
- discontinued. On top, as of Q2.17 the Bank’s operations in Serbia
(Piraeus Bank Beograd and the local leasing subsidiary) have been also classified as discontinued; same applies to ATE Insurance Romania
06
53
6.1 GREEK BANKING LANDSCAPE | KEY CHARACTERISTICS
| APPENDIX
All four Greek systemic banks under SSM supervision as of Nov.2014 High concentration: the 4 systemic banks command ~95% of the market Capital controls since mid-2015: still in place, though significantly relaxed Large amount of Greek wealth held outside the country High level of banknotes in circulation: c.20% as % of GDP vs. c.9% for Euroarea average Greek Sovereign exposure cap imposed by the SSM to Greek banks in early 2015 Improving access to interbank and capital markets for the Greek financial sector in 2017 Restructuring Plan with DG Comp: legally binding commitments post recapitalizations of 2013,2015 NPE operational targets until 2019 committed to SSM as of mid 2016 HFSF | Relationship Framework Agreement with banks Enhanced corporate governance framework | international expertise in bank BoDs 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6.2 PIRAEUS GROUP STRUCTURE
| APPENDIX
54
06
6.3 HIGH CUSTOMER EXPERIENCE
| APPENDIX
55
24% 45% 25% 4%1% Excellent Very Good Good Moderate Poor
Overall Experience
Q.: Having in mind your banking experience with Piraeus Bank, how would you rate it overall?
Preference Score
Q.: How strongly do you prefer Piraeus Bank to any other bank?
Sample size n=15.3k customers TRI*M Index 93 75
84
18% 27% 43% 8% 3% 2% Extremely Very Strongly Strongly Moderately At all N/A
TRI*M Index Benchmarks - Banking Top-10% Index 94 Top-33% Index 81 TRI*M Index Mean 74 Bottom-33% Index 68 Bottom-10% Index 56
Source: TNS normative database, Europe, 536k interviews among retail bank customers (Y2013-Y2016)
2016: 92 2016: 72 2016: 82
The customer retention index TRI*M (Measuring, Managing and Monitoring) shows the strength of relationship between the customer and the Bank, taking into account their overall experience with and their preference to the Bank.
06
56
6.4 CLEAR PROGRESS IN ALL KEY FINANCIAL METRICS ON AN ANNUAL AND QUARTERLY BASIS
Group, € bn|mn Greece
Int’l Sep.17 Jun.17 qoq Sep.16 yoy Total Assets 63.2 5.0 68.2 73.9
- 8%
82.6
- 18%
Gross Loans 57.9 3.1 61.0 62.0
- 2%
65.4
- 7%
Net Loans 43.3 2.3 45.7 46.4
- 2%
48.3
- 5%
Loan Loss Reserves 14.6 0.8 15.4 15.7
- 2%
17.1
- 10%
Customer Deposits 39.1 2.7 41.8 40.9 2% 39.7 5% Eurosystem Funding
- 12.0
15.8
- 24%
23.8
- 49%
Equity
- 9.7
9.7 0% 10.0
- 2%
NII & NFI 1,476 118 1,593 1,036 1,580 1% Net Revenues 1,594 120 1,714 1,131 1,637 5% Operating Expenses 772 98 870 582 911
- 5%
Pre Provision Income 822 22 844 549 726 16% Impairment on Loans 800 30 830 518 702 18% Other Impairment 31 8 38 30 60
- 36%
Net Result attr. to SHs
- 9
- 10
- 19
14
- Branches (#)
628 232 860 869
- 1%
931
- 8%
Employees (#) 13,892 3,080 16,972 17,088
- 1%
18,335
- 7%
€2.1bn
customer deposits yoy | +€0.9bn qoq
€4.9bn
reduction of ELA yoy | -€2.5bn qoq
€1.9bn
loan generation in 9M | €0.8bn in Q3
+1%
sum of NII & NFI in 9M yoy| +8% qoq in Q3
€870mn
OPEX, -5% in 9M yoy both Group and Greece
€844mn
PPI, +16% in 9M yoy, +19% in Greece
- 8%
footprint optimization yoy | -1% qoq
- 7%
headcount reduction yoy | -1% qoq
06
| APPENDIX
57
6.5 IMPROVING ASSET QUALITY AND CAPITAL ADEQUACY
55.3%
NPE ratio, with 46% cash coverage
36.2%
NPL ratio, -260 bps yoy
273bps
NIM, with NFI over assets at 61bps
51%
cost to income in Q3, 48% in Greece
17%
CET-1, 16.6% fully loaded, both up qoq
Group, %
Greece Int’l Sep.17 Jun.17 Sep.16 Liquidity Loan / Deposits 111% 85% 109% 113% 122% Eurosystem / Assets
- 19%
25% 36% Profitability NIM 2.75% 2.55% 2.73% 2.71% 2.72% NFI / Assets 0.61% 0.60% 0.61% 0.50% 0.47% Cost / Income 48% 82% 51% 51% 56% Cost of Risk (% of net loans) 2.5% 1.7% 2.4% 2.2% 1.9% Capital CET-1 (phased-in)
- 17.0%
16.9% 17.1% CET-1 (fully loaded)
- 16.6%
16.5% 16.1% Asset Quality NPE ratio 55.6% 50.2% 55.3% 55.6% 55.5% NPE coverage 45.4% 48.6% 45.5% 45.4% 47.2% >90dpd ratio 36.1% 37.4% 36.2% 37.1% 38.8% >90dpd coverage ratio 69.9% 65.0% 69.7% 68.2% 67.5%
Note: ratios over assets exclude EFSF|ESM bonds and discontinued operations. Profitability ratios refer to ytd period
06
| APPENDIX
58
6.6 GROUP P&L HIGHLIGHTS: STRONG BANKING INCOME & COST CONTAINMENT
| APPENDIX
Group Profit & Loss (€mn)
Q3 OpEx decreased by 1% qoq and by 5% yoy in the 9M, due to successful containment
- f
administrative expenses and crystallization of 2016 VES benefit
1 2
Core banking income increased by 8% qoq and 1% yoy in the 9M, driven by strong NFI, offsetting the slightly decreased NII as a result of asset deleveraging. Increase in NFI mainly stems from ancillary business and includes bancassurance persistency fee of €35mn Q3.17 loan impairment increased by 20% qoq, further improving provision coverage ahead of IFRS9 implementation
3
Total net revenues for Q3 flattish qoq, 9M +5% yoy
4
Q3.17 Q2.17 qoq 9M.17 9M.16 yoy Net Interest Income 431 436
- 1%
1,304 1,346
- 3%
Net Fee Income 127 82 54% 289 234 24% Core Banking Income 558 518 8% 1,593 1,580 1% Trading Income 17 28
- 40%
77 125
- 39%
Other Income 8 37
- 78%
44 9 >100% Total Net Revenues 583 584 0% 1,714 1,714 0%
- excl. one-off item
583 584 0% 1,714 1,637 5% Employee Costs (139) (143)
- 3%
(425) (436)
- 2%
Administrative Expenses (123) (123) 0% (367) (397)
- 7%
Depreciation & Other (26) (25) 4% (78) (79)
- 1%
Total Operating Costs (288) (292)
- 1%
(870) (911)
- 5%
Pre Provision Income 294 292 1% 844 803 5%
- excl. one-off item
294 292 1% 844 726 16% Result from Associates 4 (19)
- (23)
(8)
- Impairment on Loans
(312) (259) 20% (830) (702) 18% Impairment on Other Assets (9) (18)
- 53%
(38) (60)
- 36%
Profit Before Tax (22) (5)
- (47)
33
- Tax
2 10
- 25
(21)
- Net SHs Profit from Continuing Ops
(19) 7
- (19)
14
- Discontinued Ops Result
6 (74)
- (68)
(34)
- 1
2 3 5
5
4
PPI increased by 1% qoq, driven by cost containment
06
59
6.7 GROUP BALANCE SHEET: ASSET DELEVERAGING ALONG WITH LIQUIDITY IMPROVEMENT
| APPENDIX
Group Balance Sheet (€mn)
Sep.17 Jun.17 Sep.16 qoq yoy Cash/Balances with Central Banks 3,215 3,042 3,262 6%
- 1%
Loans & Advances to Banks 143 173 171
- 17%
- 17%
Gross Loans 61,035 62,048 65,399
- 2%
- 7%
(Loan Loss Reserves) (15,372) (15,685) (17,120)
- 2%
- 10%
Securities 6,652 11,828 17,780
- 44%
- 63%
- o/w EFSF, ΕSM Bonds
3,576 8,504 14,544
- 58%
- 75%
Intangibles & Goodwill 276 277 264 0% 5% Fixed Assets 2,142 2,088 2,735 3%
- 22%
Deferred Tax Assets 5,339 5,329 5,085 0% 5% Other Assets 3,758 3,852 3,879
- 2%
- 3%
Assets of Discontinued Operations 986 966 1,183 2%
- 17%
Total Assets 68,174 73,918 82,639
- 8%
- 18%
Due to Banks 14,374 21,149 29,303
- 32%
- 51%
Deposits 41,822 40,918 39,694 2% 5% Debt Securities 65 67 71
- 2%
- 8%
Other Liabilities 1,724 1,584 2,420 9%
- 29%
Liabilities of Discontinued Ops 465 452 1,186 3%
- 61%
Total Liabilities 58,450 64,170 72,674
- 9%
- 20%
Total Equity 9,724 9,748 9,964 0%
- 2%
Total Liabilities & Equity 68,174 73,918 82,639
- 8%
- 18%
1 2 3 4
Participation in ΕCB’s QE programme with €3.7bn throughout 2016 and €0.7bn in Jan.17. In 9M.2017 €8.8bn of EFSF/ESM bonds have been exchanged (short term measures for Greek debt relief)
3
Eurosystem funding at €12bn in Sep.17, down €11.7bn yoy. ΕFSF repos at €1.1bn in Sep.17, other repos at €1.2bn
1 2
Customer deposits up €0.9bn qoq, continuing the upward trend started in Q2
4
Q3.17 gross loans in milder deleveraging mode vs. previous periods; €0.5bn write-offs in Q3.17
06
60
6.8 NPE MANAGEMENT RESULTS PERMIT OPTIMISM FOR 2019 TARGETS
(1.1) (0.7) (0.9) (0.9) (0.3) (0.7) (0.6) (0.5)
George Handjinicolaou George Handjini colaou
9M.17-FY.19 Per quarter Inflows +5.9 +0.7 Outflows
- 8.8
- 1.0
Net movement
- 3.0
- 0.3
Write-offs
- 5.1
- 0.6
Sales
- 3.7
- 0.4
(1.0) (0.6) (0.4) 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 Redefaults Defaults (amounts in €bn) Curing, Restructuring, Collections Write-offs
NPEs €33.8 €33.3 €32.6 Q4.16 Q1.17 Q2.17
0.3 0.4
Required effort per quarter on average till 2019 Q4.17 – Q4.19
Sales
Note: data for defaults include arrears capitalization and new funding; parent data for all figures
Q3.17 €32.0
06
| APPENDIX
61
6.9 ΝPE REDUCTION TARGET FOR THE FIRST YEAR OF THE PLAN ACHIEVED
amounts in €bn Jun.16 - Sep.17 Actual Target delta Defaults 3.1 3.0 0.1 Redefaults 2.0 1.8 0.2 Inflows 5.1 4.8 0.3 Outflows (5.0) (4.6) (0.4)
- /w Cures
(1.0) (0.7) (0.4)
- /w Restructurings
(2.3) (2.7) 0.4
- /w Collections
(1.4) (0.9) (0.4)
- /w Liquidations
(0.3) (0.3)
- Write-offs
(2.2) (2.1) (0.1) NPEs yoy (2.2) (1.9) (0.3) NPEs Jun.16 34.2 NPEs Sep.17 32.0 32.3 (0.3)
NPEs Jun.16-Sep.17: Actual Performance vs Target
A new set of products was introduced since early summer in order to reduce redefaults Better οverall NPE performance versus target, due to higher curings and collections
Note: parent data for all figures
The actions of the Bank regarding liquidations, were in line with the target
06
| APPENDIX
06
62
6.10 SIZEABLE CURING POTENTIAL FROM FORBORNE LOANS UNDER PROBATION
| APPENDIX (€bn) 0 dpd 1-89dpd NPLs NPEs Business 6.8 2.4 14.8 24.0 Mortgages 1.0 0.9 4.5 6.4 Consumer 0.4 0.2 2.8 3.4 TOTAL 8.2 3.5 22.1 33.8
NPEs per Bucket (Sep.17)
46% 48% 28% 64% 60% 66% 34% 71% 70% 77% 41% 77% Total Business Mortgages Consumer NPE NPE>0dpd NPL
Cash Coverage Ratio per Product and Status (Sep.17) Forborne Loans (Sep.17, €15.4bn)
NPEF 0dpd 40% NPEF 1-30dpd 9% NPEF 31-90dpd 11% NPEF >90dpd 15% PF 25%
€6bn forborne with 0dpd
- o/w €4bn with less than
12 months since restructuring
NPΕ mix 24% 11% 65% 100%
IFRS9 adjustment is expected to further improve coverage levels in early 2018, while the impact is projected to be manageable under the phasing rules to be adopted for capital adequacy and based on the high CET-1 ratio of Piraeus 9M.17 coverage NPEs ratio at 45.5%, while adjusted for 9M write offs would be at 48.4%, 3ppts higher
Note: NPE data is on balance sheet
[1] [2] [3] [1+2+3] targeted curing pace evidently to be accelerated:
- €0.3bn est. in Q4.17
- €0.4bn est. 2018 avg per quarter
- €0.7bn est. 2019 avg per quarter
63
*PLU includes RBU, international operations, REO, holdings, discontinued operations and non-core Greek subsidiaries. NPE ratios calculated over on-balance sheet exposures n.m. non meaningful
6.11 PIRAEUS BANK VS. PIRAEUS LEGACY UNIT (9M.2017 vs. H1.2017)
| APPENDIX
06
PIRAEUS GROUP
45.7 41.8 52.4 1,714 (870) 844 (19) 2.7% 0.6% 51% 2.4% 109% 55% 36% 0%
PLU
20.4 3.1 23.5 494 (246) 248 (330) 2.2% 0.2% 50% 4.5% n.m. 90% 62% <0% A. Balance Sheet (€bn)
1
Net Loans
2
Customer Deposits
3
RWAs B. P&L (€mn)
4
Net revenues
5
Operating expenses
6
Pre provision income
7
Net income attrib. to SHs C. Ratios
8
NIM over assets
9
NF&CI over assets
10
Cost-to-income ratio
11
Cost of risk (over net loans)
12
Loan-to-deposit ratio
13
NPE ratio
14
NPL ratio
15
RoA
PIRAEUS CORE BANK
25.3 38.7 28.9 1,219 (624) 596 311 3.1% 0.9% 51% 0.7% 65% 9% 2% 1.1%
A. Balance Sheet (€bn)
1
Assets
2
Loan loss reserves
3
Net Loans 4 NPEs 5 NPLs 6 RWAs 7 Allocated capital B. P&L (€mn)
8
Pre provision income
9
Provisions C. Ratios
10
Cost of risk (over net loans)
11
RWA density
12
Group CET-1 phased-in ratio
64
*PLU includes RBU, international operations, REO, holdings, discontinued operations and non-core Greek subsidiaries
6.12 PLU WELL POSITIONED TO DELIVER ON TARGETS
PLU
Q1.17 Q2.17 Q3.17 25.6 25.2 25.0 15.7 15.0 14.6 21.2 20.6 20.4 32.7 32.1 31.5 23.5 22.6 21.6 25.2 24.1 23.5 4.2 4.0 4.0 75 88 85 239 204 248 4.5% 4.0% 4.9% 98% 96% 94% 16.8% 16.9% 17.0% RWAs have contracted -€1.7bn after 6m of PLU ring- fencing, due to deleveraging of non core assets and non performing exposures. Allocated capital is maintained at €4bn creating buffer to withstand pressure stemming from the ambitious de-risking plan
1 2
PLU revenues driven mainly by provisioning unwinding but offset by cost of risk
3
RWAs density in PLU at 94% to further dilute as derisking effort continue bearing fruits (core bank at 65%) By the end of 2020, PLU RWAs will be reduced by approximately 50% from c.€24bn currently
4
IFRS9 adjustment is expected to further improve coverage level as of the beginning of 2018, while the impact will be mitigated due to phasing in rules for capital, with no P&L impact 2 1 3 4
PLU enables Piraeus Core Bank to be even more efficient & focused towards managing the reduction of non-core portfolio
| APPENDIX
06
(€bn │ %) Balances (€bn) Customers (#) FTEs (#)
Corporate RBU 6.3 0.4k 63 SME RBU 2.5 1.5k 150 Commercial Workout 10.5 32k 363 Operational Retail RBU 11.3 302k 865*
- Mortgages
6.5 67k
- Consumer, Agri, Credit Cards
3.7 290k
- SBLs RBU
1.1 18k
Total Operational RBU 30.7 324k 1,614**
65
6.13 RBU PORTFOLIO AT A GLANCE
Retail Banking CIB Asset Management
CEO Recovery Banking Unit (RBU)
RBU Strategy Retail | SBL Recovery SME Recovery Corporate | Shipping Recovery | RBU Structured Solution Commercial Workouts Task Force Notes:
- figures display balances & customers managed by Piraeus Recovery Banking Unit
- customer total number refers to unique customers (number of customers in
breakdown does not add up due to customers with multiple relationships) (*) including 8 FTEs in Senior Management office (**) including supporting RBU staff (total: 173 FTEs) (***) including 100 SB FTEs in branches for customers holding agricultural products and Retail FTEs include 342 dedicated Branch Restructuring Officers
c.2,500 FTEs***
including supporting RBU FTEs (loan admin, external legal, other vendors, in excess of 500 FTEs in total)
Real Estate
30 Sep.2017
06
| APPENDIX
66
6.14 RBU BUSINESS CUSTOMERS VIABILITY MAPPING
407 customers €6.3bn total loan balances 1,469 cases €2.5bn total loan balances Operating businesses 1,299 or 88% of total €2.3bn or 92% of total Viable (positive EBITDA) 1,096 or 84% of
- perating cases
€2.0 bn loans or 84% of
- perating cases
RBU portfolio: Corporate & Shipping SMEs Commercial Workouts Operating businesses 292 or 72% of total €4.9bn or 76% of total Viable (positive EBITDA) 228 or 78% of operating cases €4.0bn loans or 82% of
- perating cases
32,460 NPL cases €10.5bn total loan balances Denounced loans >100k 7,851 or 28% of total €7.7bn or 93% of total Operating cases 4,153 or 53% of denounced >100k €4.3bn loans or 55% of denounced >100k
- Mapping taking into account
borrowers’ needs, viability and affordability in a through-the- cycle approach
- Aim is to take advantage of the
changes in the legal framework and the wealth of data gained through acquisitions to deal with strategic defaulters
- 83% of balances related to
- perating SMEs and Corporate
refer to customers that are deemed viable displaying positive EBITDA RBU portfolio: RBU portfolio:
06
| APPENDIX
67
6.15 PIRAEUS REO ONLINE PLATFORM PROGRESS
Piraeus Bank was the 1st Bank to launch the innovative site www.Properties4sale.gr, achieving the sale of REO assets through online & publicly accessible auctions
06
1st auction: 27-28 Jun.17
Online Auctions | Results to Date
- # properties: 58
- Significant customer base: ~2,900 registered users
- Key Results:
- 39 out of 58 (67%) properties received bids
- 196 bids from 80 bidders
- Bids approved on 50% (29 properties) of the assets
- 9 properties (out of 39) received “Buy Now” offers
2nd auction: 24-25 Oct.17
- # properties: 57
- Increased client base: ~5,000 registered users
- Key Results:
- 41 out of 57 (72%) properties received bids
- 230 bids from 86 bidders
- Bids approved on 51% (29 properties) of the assets
- 13 properties (out of 41) received “Buy Now” offers
| APPENDIX 1st Auction | 29 properties sold at 15% discount over market values 2nd Auction | 29 properties sold at 9% discount over market values 3rd Auction | 26 properties sold at 15% discount over market values 2017 Auctions 2018 Auctions | >6 auctions planned (1st scheduled for March) Type Market Price (€mn) Bid Price (€mn) Delta 1st Auction 3.6 3.0
- 15%
2nd Auction 7.2 6.6
- 9%
3rd Auction 4.5 3.8
- 15%
Total 15.3 13.4
- 12%
>> Residential 10.4 9.2
- 12%
>> Commercial 4.4 3.8
- 13%
>> Land plots 0.5 0.4
- 7%
3rd auction: 13-14 Dec.17
- # properties: 48
- Increased client base: >6,000 registered users
- Key Results:
- 35 out of 48 (73%) properties received bids
- 196 bids from 74 bidders
- Bids approved on 54% (26 properties) of the assets
- 6 properties (out of 35) received “Buy Now” offers
06
68
6.16 AMENDMENTS IN LEGAL FRAMEWORK WILL DRIVE FURTHER ACCELERATION OF NPE/NPL DELEVERAGE
| APPENDIX
Changes Introduced in 2014 - 2016
- Seizures and auctions expedited (from 18-38 months to <12 months) and ranking and recovery of creditors with liens or encumbrances substantially improved (banks receive 65%-100% of
the commercial value). Significant reduction of relevant cost for the banks (c.20%)
- Expedition of insolvency process
- Efficiency of consolidation process (art. 99) - enforcement proceedings can be stayed, when 30% of the creditors (20% of which hold debt secured with liens/encumbrances) agree to
participate in the consolidation process which has a maximum duration of 12 months
- Simplification and expedition of the winding-up process
- A process of bankruptcy for natural persons, similar to Chapter 13 or Chapter 7 of the US Bankruptcy Code (first time with L.3869/2010, lastly modified with L.4346/2015)
- Provides individuals (not merchants or business customers) the opportunity to propose a payment plan of financial reorganization under the protection of the court. The payment plan
should comply with the “no creditor worse off” principle
- The only protected asset under the law is the debtor’s primary residence. Certain criteria apply for eligibility. Pool A (family with 2 kids): property taxable value <€200k and income <€21k.
Pool B (family with 2 kids): property taxable value <€260k and income <€35k. In order to ensure a residence protection, the debtor must submit a payment plan for all his/her creditors
- Amendments for immediate liberalization of management and sale of all performing and non-performing loans, with temporary exception for the sale of NPLs secured by primary residence
with an objective value of the property up to €140k, for which the liberalization will enter in force on 01.01.18
Changes Introduced in 2017
- Law 4469/2017 on Out of Court Workouts (“OCW”) introduces a new process of extrajudicial settlement of debts >€20,000 to the extent that the restructuring of such debts is considered by
all participants as necessary for the sustainability of the debtor’s business. The OCW aims to accelerate the NPL deleverage effort and tackle the category of strategic defaulters
- Law 4472/2017 introduced, among others:
(a) provisions to ensure that there is no civil or criminal liability of credit or financial institutions and public sector officials, when involved in debt restructuring, provided that such restructuring is in compliance with a set of objective criteria (indemnity) (b) amendments to the legal framework for the licensing and operating of banking receivables’ servicing platforms with the purpose to simplify the process and documentation required and (c) an amendment to the Greek Code of Civil Procedure will enable the electronic auctions for foreclosed properties so as to avoid disruptions in the auction procedures by activists
Changes Introduced in 2018
- Measure for carrying out solely e-auctions of foreclosed property will commence in 21 Feb. 2018. The measure affects all auctions, regardless of when a foreclosure notice was imposed
- The Code of Civil Procedures introduces the preferential coverage of the banks’ claims from auctions’ proceeds, provided that the following cumulative conditions are satisfied: i) new
financing post 17.01.2018, ii) with new underwriting/mortgage/or pledged collateral of 1st class and iii) this collateral is auctioned
69 | APPENDIX
6.17 OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
Albania Bulgaria Romania Ukraine London Frankfurt
Branches (#) 99 Employees (#) 1,277 Assets 1,497 Net loans 742 Deposits 931 Branches (#) 74 Employees (#) 946 Assets 1,547 Net loans 712 Deposits 1,151 Branches (#) 18 Employees (#) 377 Assets 110 Net loans 42 Deposits 48 Branches (#) 39 Employees (#) 445 Assets 595 Net loans 178 Deposits 452 Branch (#) 1 Employees (#) 19 Assets 888 Net loans 624 Deposits 30 Branch (#) 1 Employees (#) 11 Assets 167 Net loans 15 Deposits 134 (€mn, as at Sep .2017)
Branches
Branches (#) #) 232 232 Employ loyees (#) #) 3,075 Assets €4.8bn Net loans €2.3bn Depos posits €2.7bn
Total International1
¹Consolidated financial data for international operations Market Shares Loans Deposits Albania 5.2% 6.1% Bulgaria 2.9% 3.0% Romania 1.5% 1.2% Ukraine 0.2% 0.2%
Subsidiaries
06
6.18 CREDIT RATINGS
70
1
Aaa AAA AAA
2
Aa1 AA+ AA+
3
Aa2 AA AA
4
Aa3 AA- AA-
5
A1 A+ A+
6
A2 A A
7
A3 A- A-
8
Baa1 BBB+ BBB+
9
Baa2 BBB BBB
10
Baa3 BBB- BBB-
11
Ba1 BB+ BB+
12
Ba2 BB BB
13
Ba3 BB- BB-
14
B1 B+ B+
15
B2 B B
16
B3 B- B-
17
Caa1 CCC+ CCC
18
Caa2 CCC
- 19
Caa3 CCC-
- 20
Ca CC CC
21
C C C
22
- SD
RD
23
- D
D
Greece: Country Rating Greece: Country Ceiling Piraeus: Bank Rating Piraeus Covered Bond
Piraeus Bank | LT Rating
I n v e s t m e n t G r a d e N o n - I n v e s t m e n t G r a d e
8.0 9.0 10.0 11.0 12.0 13.0 14.0 15.0 16.0 17.0 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.0 22.0 23.0 24.0 Moody's S&P Fitch Baa1/BBB+ Baa2/BBB Baa3/BBB- Ba1/BB+ Ba2/BB Ba3/BB- B1/B+ B2/B B3/B- Caa1/CCC+ Caa2/CCC Caa3/CCC- Ca/CC Ca/C RD D
06
| APPENDIX
06
71
6.19 EFSF|ESM BOND EXCHANGE
| APPENDIX
Dec.15 €16.8bn
QE sales €4.4bn
Feb.17 €12.4bn EFSF
QE Sales
Q1.17 - Q3.17 - Q4.17 €10.9bn
ESM|EFSF Exchange
At the end of Dec.17, Piraeus outstanding balance of ESM & EFSF stood at €1.5bn End of Dec.17 €1.5bn Early this year, Piraeus, along with the other Greek banks, agreed to participate in the ESM & EFSF Bond Exchange Programs, in the context of the Short Term Measures for the relief of Greek Public Debt
Piraeus ESM|EFSF Portfolio
Piraeus contribution to the Bond Exchanges so far amounted to a nominal value of €10.9bn The 10th and last round of the ESM & EFSF Exchange initiated in December 2017, while the cash settlement in mid January 2018 brings the relevant ESM / EFSF balance to zero
6.20 CONTINGENT CONVERTIBLE BONDS
72
Term & Ranking Payment of interest Perpetual Pari passu with common equity, junior to all claims of all creditors (including subordinated) at special liquidation of issuer Annual Fully discretionary & Paid in cash or shares Coupon is tax deductible, impacting directly equity position as dividend No dividend shall be paid on the issuer’s common stock if issuer has decided not to pay the previous coupon payment in full Coupon Initial 7 years 8% per annum (initial interest rate). Post 7 years, interest rate calculated as prevailing 7y Mid-swap rate + (8% less 7y Mid-swap rate at issuance: 7.543 per cent, p.a.) Conversion events The securities shall automatically convert into ordinary shares if:
- At any time the CET1 ratio, calculated on a consolidated basis or a solo basis, falls below 7%
- 2 annual coupons are missed (in whole or in part, and do not need to be consecutive)
Optional to the holder at 7th anniversary of issuance Conversion consideration The number of common shares issued on conversion is determined as 116% of the nominal amount of the outstanding securities divided by the conversion price which shall be equal to the offer price subject to market standard adjustments in the event of certain corporate actions Option to repay The issuer may, in its sole discretion, repay all or some only of the bonds at any time subject to approval by the ECB acting within the framework of SSM, at their initial nominal amount plus any interest accrued but unpaid, unless cancelled Applicable law Greek law Basel III Classification Classified as Common Equity Tier 1 Transferability Transferable by HFSF to another holder with the consent of the issuer and the regulator, per Art. 7(5)(b) of the HFSF Law Issue Size €2,040,000,000
| APPENDIX
06
06
6.21 EMTN PROGRAMME
73 | APPENDIX 1 2
The EMTN Programme was established in 2004 and is the Bank’s funding mainstay, offering unparalleled flexibility and recognition The Programme is updated on an annual basis and it has been gradually upsized from €1bn (in 2004) to €25bn (in 2011) Issuance is done through Piraeus Group Finance or Piraeus directly Programme listed in Luxemburg Stock Exchange | Bonds can be listed to any EU stock exchange The EMTN platform is capable of supporting the issuance of debt in various formats, including:
- Senior Unsecured Bonds
- Subordinated Bonds
- Pillar II Bonds (L.3723 - guaranteed by the Greek state)
#47 debt transactions of €6bn (Pub/PP off EMTN) Max EMTN Senior outstanding: €2.9bn in Jun 2007 (exc. Pillar II bonds) #26 Pillar II Bonds | Max outstanding: €15.2bn in Q2 2012
Key Takeaways
3 4 5 6 7 8 Summary Terms & Conditions
06
6.22 EMTN ISSUANCE ACTIVITY
74 | APPENDIX
500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hybrid LT2 Senior
1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 11000 12000 13000 14000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pillar II (L.3723) LT2 + Hybrid Senior
27,000
Outstanding Amount (€mn) Annual Issuance Activity (€mn)
06
6.23 COVERED BOND PROGRAMME
75 | APPENDIX 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
€10bn Covered Bond Programme established in 2011 (upsized from €3bn in 2014) Conditional Pass-Through structure (introduced in December 2014) Contractual Overcollateralization (OC) of 25% in compliance with ECB CBPP3 eligibility criteria (introduced in December 2014) Investor Repurchase Put (introduced in August 2016) #5 Covered Bond Series of €4.5bn in total, issued off the Programme Max outstanding issues: #3 Covered Bond Series of €2.5bn currently outstanding Rated “B” by Fitch (“A-” upon commencement) | Maximum achievable rating capped by Greece’s Country Ceiling Piraeus Covered Bond Programme is eligible for up to 13 notches uplift due to structure, committed OC and liquidity reserve
Selected Historical Information
8 Summary Terms & Conditions
06
6.24 COVERED BOND STRUCTURE
76 | APPENDIX 1 2 3 4 5 6
Direct issuance structure allowing Piraeus to carry out a covered bond transaction by constituting an eligible cover pool as a segregated pool
- f dedicated assets
A dynamic cover pool of residential loans is encumbered by a pledge in favor of the covered bondholders, whose claims are associated with the issuance of the bonds The loans constituting the Cover Pool are not transferred to separate entity, continued to be serviced by Piraeus Bank and are isolated from its remaining assets There are three statutory tests (e.g., NPV, Nominal Value and Interest Coverage), which will be performed on a quarterly basis, and an Amortisation Test which is to be performed on a monthly basis following an Issuer Event Hedging Agreements (if required)
- One or more interest rate swaps may mitigate interest rates mismatches
- One or more cross currency hedging agreement may be entered into to
convert any foreign currency risk
Covered Bonds benefit from a “Dual Recourse” (Piraeus Bank and collateral backing) nature| Extra level of recourse is the main difference with ABS
06
6.25 OUTSTANDING SERIES
77 | APPENDIX
06
6.26 PROGRAMME DESCRIPTION
78 | APPENDIX
Issuer Piraeus Bank S.A. Servicer Piraeus Bank S.A. Amount EUR10bn Listing Luxembourg Stock Exchange Governing Law Greek Covered Bond Law / Contractual terms governed by English law Arranger Barclays Rating Agencies Fitch Coupon The programme will give the issuer the flexibility to choose the most appropriate payment type (i.e. fixed, floating, etc.) Further Issues Permitted, subject to satisfaction of statutory tests and other regulatory requirements Substitution Permitted, subject to various provisions and eligibility criteria Ranking All covered bonds will rank pari passu and pro rata without any preference or priority among themselves, irrespective of their series, for all purposes except for their respective issue dates, interest commencement dates and/or issue prices Security Collateralised; fixed and floating charges over a pool of Greek residential mortgages Repayment Conditional Pass-Through; liquidity risk is mitigated by an extension period during which there will be a best efforts sale of an appropriate part of the cover pool every 6 months for a price at least equal to the Adjusted Required Redemption Amount (ARRA) Expected Maturity Varies for each series and as Piraeus Bank deems appropriate Extended Final Maturity Date Should the issuer fail to pay on the final maturity date, payments will be deferred until the extended maturity date (the date falling 46 years after the final maturity date of each series) Maximum Loan-to-Value 80% for residential mortgages, as defined by Greek Covered Bond Law Portfolio Fully-drawn first ranking mortgages ,and/ or mortgage prenotation, denominated in Euros, backed by completed residential properties in Greece, and
- riginated by Piraeus Bank
Hedging If and when required for a series and cover pool, appropriately rated third parties will provide interest rate and cross-currency swaps to the
- transaction. Currently there is no hedging in place
06
6.27 INVESTOR REPURCHASE PUT
79 | APPENDIX
Investor Repurchase Put
- If an investor repurchase put is specified in the Final Terms of the CB series, then if and to the extent that the Issuer does not
redeem the CB series in full on the FMD (taking account any grace periods), the Covered Bondholder has the option to give a “not less than 30 nor more than 60 days” notice to the Issuer, upon the expiry of which, the Issuer will be required to repurchase the CB series (on the date specified in this notice)
- If this Covered Bond is in definitive form, to exercise the right to require redemption of this Covered Bond, the holder of this
Covered Bond must deliver such Covered Bond, on any Business Day falling within the above-mentioned notice period at the specified office of any Paying Agent, accompanied by a duly signed and completed notice of exercise of the Investor Repurchase Put
- Any notice given by a Covered Bondholder of any Covered Bond shall be irrevocable
- Any failure by the Issuer to repurchase Covered Bonds pursuant to this condition shall not constitute an Event of Default
Summary Piraeus Bank Covered Bonds, embed an innovative feature, namely the “Investor Repurchase Put”, that is there in order to reduce the risk of discretionary maturity extension on behalf of the Issuer (the case in a typical Conditional Pass Through Structure). In the context of such option, in the event that the issuer does not redeem the CB series in full on the Final Maturity Date (taking account any grace periods), the CBs holders have the option which, if exercised, requires the issuer to repurchase their CBs at par. Any failure by the issuer to repurchase the CBs shall not constitute an Event of Default under the CBs Programme, but it would trigger a cross-default for other Piraeus Bank Programmes (including the EMTN Programme)
06
6.28 SECURITISATIONS
80 | APPENDIX
Selected Historical Information
10 ABS issued during 2005-2009 (€10bn)
RMBS (#4) | SME (#3) | Consumer (#2) | Leasing (#1)
#3 RMBS originally placed with investors:
Estia I (€750mn) | Estia II (€1,250mn) | Kion (€600mn)
#7 ABS currently outstanding (~ €1,858mn)
~ €64mn in circulation - Estia I (€11mn) | Estia II (€37mn) | Kion (€16mn)
~ €1,794mn retained and form eligible collateral for interbank repos
1 2 3 4
200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Structure
Outstanding Amount - Placed Securitisations (€mn)
1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Annual ABS Issuance Activity (€mn)
06
6.29 EURO COMMERCIAL PAPER PROGRAMME
81 | APPENDIX
One of the two unsecured funding platforms of the Bank (together with EMTN) Unsecured, short-term debt instrument with maturity<1yr Established in 2003|Original Programme Size: €1.5bn Programme further increase: €3bn in 2005|€5bn in 2006 Piraeus ECP Programme last updated in June 2016 Max ECP outstanding: €3.7bn (Feb 2008) | 85 Institutional Investors from 13 countries Fully transferable securities Clearing: Euroclear, Cedel
1 2 3 4 5 Summary Program Terms 6 7 8
Investor Relations
Chryssanthi Berbati | IR Xenofon Damalas, CFA | IR Αntonios Sagris | IR
82
COMMUNICATION
treasury@piraeusbank.gr investor_relations@piraeusbank.gr Bloomberg: TPEIR GA Reuters: BOPr.AT www.piraeusbankgroup.com
Piraeus Financial Markets
Tom Arvanitis | Head of PFM, ExCo Member Kostas Fouskas | Country Treasurer Dimitris Spathakis| Head of Debt Issuance
Latest update: 31 January 2018
PIRAEUS BANK GROUP HEADQUARTERS
4, Amerikis Str., 105 64 Athens, Greece, T. +30 210 333 5026 www.piraeusbankgroup.com